WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:34 am

But if you listen to twitter Laviska and Edwards are the second coming of Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson :) :) :)

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:12 pm

Patsfan86 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:34 am
But if you listen to twitter Laviska and Edwards are the second coming of Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson :) :) :)
Viska and Edwards both look really good when they're given opportunity.

It's also 3 games in, and both of these guys were recovering from off-season surgery. Lotta time to get back on track

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:38 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:04 am

So this was a lot of information but one of the easiest and reliable numbers is rookie reception yards per game (minimum of 8 games). I know it's super early but right now we have several rookies above that number;


90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson
Lamb

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jeudy

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool
Reagor
Shenault

Just to update, if Jefferson and Lamb keep up this pace that means they're a virtual lock to be a stud. I would look to "buy high" on these players.

Shenault has boosted himself into the 47+ category. That category and up gives you a great chance to be a franchise receiver (even if they're not a "stud", they'll likely be relevant for a long time).

Players gaining ground are Higgins, Aiyuk and Mooney, they're all in the 36-38 ypg right now. Their roles are steadily increasing so there is a lot of optimism to be had here.

Ruggs, Edwards and Gabriel Davis are within striking distance but they'll need to really step up their game in the 2nd half of the season.

Concern level should be raising for those players who have seen their role either stagnate or decline (I'm thinking of guys like van jefferson, etc). Players who don't hit at least 47+ ypg their rookie years only have roughly a 10% chance at best of becoming a "stud". Not impossible but significantly more improbable.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby gunfrees » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:58 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:38 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:04 am

So this was a lot of information but one of the easiest and reliable numbers is rookie reception yards per game (minimum of 8 games). I know it's super early but right now we have several rookies above that number;


90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson
Lamb

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jeudy

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool
Reagor
Shenault

Just to update, if Jefferson and Lamb keep up this pace that means they're a virtual lock to be a stud. I would look to "buy high" on these players.

Shenault has boosted himself into the 47+ category. That category and up gives you a great chance to be a franchise receiver (even if they're not a "stud", they'll likely be relevant for a long time).

Players gaining ground are Higgins, Aiyuk and Mooney, they're all in the 36-38 ypg right now. Their roles are steadily increasing so there is a lot of optimism to be had here.

Ruggs, Edwards and Gabriel Davis are within striking distance but they'll need to really step up their game in the 2nd half of the season.

Concern level should be raising for those players who have seen their role either stagnate or decline (I'm thinking of guys like van jefferson, etc). Players who don't hit at least 47+ ypg their rookie years only have roughly a 10% chance at best of becoming a "stud". Not impossible but significantly more improbable.
Appreciate the update, keep em coming :thumbup:
12 team dynasty | 1 QB | .5 ppr

QBs: Josh Allen, Winston
WRs: Davante, Diggs, Juju, Cooks, Jefferson, Reagor
RBs: Sanders, JTaylor, Akers
TE: Goedert, Gesicki, OJ Howard


2020: 1.02, 1.07, 1.09 / 2.02 (Taylor, Akers, Jefferson, Reagor)

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:24 am

This thread has helped confirm thoughts i have already had about rookies and has made me chase rookies and make some good acquisitions. This is as basically as easy and as cut and dry data can get. IMO you basically know within the first year if a rookie is going to be a stud or not. Thank you for this information.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:15 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:24 am
This thread has helped confirm thoughts i have already had about rookies and has made me chase rookies and make some good acquisitions. This is as basically as easy and as cut and dry data can get. IMO you basically know within the first year if a rookie is going to be a stud or not. Thank you for this information.
Yeah, rookie year plays a huge role.

I also use it the inverse too. Say you have two players who missed the 47 ypg mark. One maybe got 600 yards total and the other got 150 yards total. The 600 yard player is going to be much more highly valued, but statistically there’s little to no difference in their potential outcomes. In general I’d be selling the higher valued wrs and buying the lower valued wrs of the same tier. So for example, let’s say you traded Dionte Johnson for Harry plus a 1st or something.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 pm

Update for week 5;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Lamb
Jefferson

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool
Ruggs
Jeudy

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Shenault
Reagor

  • Lamb and Jefferson still trending to become some of the safest assets in all of dynasty. Claypool(65) is knocking on the door.
  • Higgins (42.8) and Aiyuk (38.3) still have plenty of time.
  • I still like Pittman (24.3) and Edwards (33), but they really have to hit the ground running when they come back from their injuries.
  • By the way, it's probably worth mentioning that all of these stats are based on the assumption of at least 8 games played. Less than 8 games played and the odds plummet.
  • Gabriel Davis plays Tuesday, if he does anything noteworthy i'll make an edit
  • Overall, this class is looking amazing. For context, the 2014 class had 9 players that eclipsed the 47 ypg mark. Right now we have 7 so far with room to grow.
Number of players that eclipsed 47+ ypg
2020 - 8 (so far)
2019 - 6
2018 - 3 [Ridley, DJM, Kirk]
2017 - 2 [Juju, Kupp]
2016 - 1 [Michael Thomas]
2015 - 2 [Cooper, Diggs]
2014 - 9

This 2020 class is NOT NORMAL.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:38 am

I've only just found this thread but I have to say the work that has gone into it is massively appreciated. This really speaks to my inner statistics nerd.

I've put together a spreadsheet to extrapolate out stats for the remainder of the season and it's the obvious names of Jefferson, Lamb and Claypool who are all shining.

Higgins is also an interesting case. He's averaging 56.5 yards per game over 6 games and will extrapolate out to 59 catches for 904 yards. So based on yardage total is 44% to be a "stud". Taking out week 1 though, where he was joint 4th receiver on the Bengals (15 snaps along with Mike Thomas and Auden Tate) and recorded no stats, he'd be at 67.8 yards per game over 5 games for 1017 yards on 66 catches. That would put him up to a 90% hit rate. Obviously it should be counted as 6 games played but paints a picture for what we might expect now that Higgins is firmly in a starting role.

EDIT - I would also like to thank you for having a memorable and easy to search thread subject. It made it so much easier to find again.
16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 2 Time Champion)
T. Brady, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - Reigning 4 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:39 pm

All this tells me is 1) Mims better get on the field pronto, and 2) never should have drafted Mims over Higgins :problem:

Seriously though, great data as always DD.
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1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX (R/W/T) 1DST 1TMK | 21 Active Roster, 4 Taxi (*), 3 IR/Out (+) | est. '07 | SB x3: 2018 League Champs!

QB - P Mahomes | D Prescott+
RB - C Carson | A Ekeler | A Jones | R Mostert+ | B Snell | J Wilson | G Edwards | D Dallas ®* | A McFarland ®* | R Penny | L Perine ®
WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | G Davis ® | An Brown | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ®
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
DST: Ravens | TMK: Ravens | 2021 - 3,3,4,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:37 pm

Update for week 6;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [90]
Lamb [83]
Claypool [67]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Ruggs [59]
Higgins [57]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jeudy [53]
Reagor [48]
Shenault [47]


  • We welcome Mapletron to the "instant studs" list
  • Aiyuk [33], Edwards [33], Mooney [33], Gabriel Davis [32], Hamler [26], Pittman [24]
. All of these players are currently in the 5-10% range but can easily jump up to a better tier with a few good games.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:01 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:37 pm
Update for week 6;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [90]
Lamb [83]
Claypool [67]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Ruggs [59]
Higgins [57]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jeudy [53]
Reagor [48]
Shenault [47]


  • We welcome Mapletron to the "instant studs" list
  • Aiyuk [33], Edwards [33], Gabriel Davis [32], Hamler [26], Pittman [24]
Wow I think this equates well to what we're seeing on the field. Claypool Jefferson and Lamb to me are sure things at this point with Higgins working his way into that conversation and we see a bunch of guys vying for that 5th spot. Most concerning is Jeudy as he's been getting as much opportunity as anyone. Maybe now would be a good time to sell him while he still has a lot of value? I know he's been in a struggling passing game, but we've seen guys succeed in this position before and he was expected to be as sure of a thing as anyone.

Jerry Jeudy- Not as advertised

Awesome thread. Mooney is at 196 in 6 games.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:07 pm

47+ is still really good, so I wouldn’t be bailing on Jeudy, but I would be thinking about trying to flip for a wr in a better tier (i.e. Jefferson or Lamb) for sure. Of course it’s still really early and anything can happen with the tiers by the end of the year. One big game and Jeudy is right up there with the others. Once we get more games in we'll have a clearer picture.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:16 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:07 pm
47+ is still really good, so I wouldn’t be bailing on Jeudy, but I would be thinking about trying to flip for a wr in a better tier (i.e. Jefferson or Lamb) for sure. Of course it’s still really early and anything can happen with the tiers by the end of the year. One big game and Jeudy is right up there with the others. Once we get more games in we'll have a clearer picture.
I agree with you. 47 still is good. It's just that his value is really the only one I'd say has decreased at this point, and I bet someone will still have him valued at preseason price. Yea any of the 5 in the tiers above him straight up should be a good deal but the Jeudy truthers gonna come in here soon enough and saying that you shouldn't do that.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:56 am

Extrapolating out yards and receptions on current data for anyone who has played 5-6 games (and yes that is too small of a sample size to action any moves on but I'm bored):

83% - 1000+ Yards
Jefferson - 1432
Lamb - 1325
Claypool - 1072

70% - 70-99 Receptions
Lamb - 96
Jefferson - 75

44% - 900-999 Yards
Higgins - 904

42% - 60-69 Receptions
Shenault - 69 - So very, very close to moving up

36% - 750-899 Yards
Jeudy - 851

Again a disclaimer, these are figured extrapolated out from a very small sample size and can fluctuate wildly as we get more data but it will definitely be something I'll keep an eye on over the course of the season.
16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 2 Time Champion)
T. Brady, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - Reigning 4 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:16 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:07 pm
47+ is still really good, so I wouldn’t be bailing on Jeudy, but I would be thinking about trying to flip for a wr in a better tier (i.e. Jefferson or Lamb) for sure. Of course it’s still really early and anything can happen with the tiers by the end of the year. One big game and Jeudy is right up there with the others. Once we get more games in we'll have a clearer picture.
I agree with you. 47 still is good. It's just that his value is really the only one I'd say has decreased at this point, and I bet someone will still have him valued at preseason price. Yea any of the 5 in the tiers above him straight up should be a good deal but the Jeudy truthers gonna come in here soon enough and saying that you shouldn't do that.
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.


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