WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Pac_Eddy » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:43 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:49 am
Big Ben has been using a much quicker release this year so his average depth of targets are way down and the fact that Tomlin has been holding Claypool out lately to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall. I think you'll see more of Claypool in the playoffs.
I read that too about Tomlin worried about the rookie wall. I don't know how deliberately reducing targets or play time helps that though. I'm also not an NFL coach.

I think the biggest issue for Claypool is Big Ben. He liked like a less athletic Christian Ponder out there for a few weeks.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:22 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:43 am
Hottoddies wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:49 am
Big Ben has been using a much quicker release this year so his average depth of targets are way down and the fact that Tomlin has been holding Claypool out lately to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall. I think you'll see more of Claypool in the playoffs.
I read that too about Tomlin worried about the rookie wall. I don't know how deliberately reducing targets or play time helps that though. I'm also not an NFL coach.

I think the biggest issue for Claypool is Big Ben. He liked like a less athletic Christian Ponder out there for a few weeks.
I just cant imagine Tomlin wouldn't put his best roster on the field in weeks 12-15 when the division and bye were on the line, just to keep an already healthy rookie WR healthy.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:54 pm

CGW wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:22 am
I just cant imagine Tomlin wouldn't put his best roster on the field in weeks 12-15 when the division and bye were on the line, just to keep an already healthy rookie WR healthy.
Agree, really does seem stupid, but... the NFL does incredibly stupid crap all the time, even the best coaches, so who knows.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:56 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:32 am
I really think this was one of Jeudy's better games. Got open and literally could've won the damn game if he didn't alligator arm every reception (dropped TD reception, dropped bomb that would've gone for an 60+ yard TD, dropped bomb to get them into field goal range on the final drive).

Way too much talent to say he's trash. He needs to grow up and realize he's not nearly as good as he thinks he is and rededicate himself to improving his catching technique and body control. Perhaps this is the humbling experience he needed and I agree with Fangio that this is a possible career turning point for him. He can either man up, recognize his weakness and attack to strengthen it this off-season or continue to blame everyone else but himself and have a middling WR3 career.
IMO, this is damning. Dedication and working hard are important traits. If this is right, he needs a wake up call like Warner gave Fitzgerald.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby KingsKing » Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:46 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:56 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:32 am
I really think this was one of Jeudy's better games. Got open and literally could've won the damn game if he didn't alligator arm every reception (dropped TD reception, dropped bomb that would've gone for an 60+ yard TD, dropped bomb to get them into field goal range on the final drive).

Way too much talent to say he's trash. He needs to grow up and realize he's not nearly as good as he thinks he is and rededicate himself to improving his catching technique and body control. Perhaps this is the humbling experience he needed and I agree with Fangio that this is a possible career turning point for him. He can either man up, recognize his weakness and attack to strengthen it this off-season or continue to blame everyone else but himself and have a middling WR3 career.
IMO, this is damning. Dedication and working hard are important traits. If this is right, he needs a wake up call like Warner gave Fitzgerald.
I watch Richard Sherman and Xavian Howard gush about his route running on a podcast a few days ago, Howard said it’s the only time a player ever turned his inside out on a simple slant , they showed the route and Jeudy beat him off the line for a clean Td , except lock never saw it and didn’t throw the pass . Jeudy was work to do , his hands and attitude , professionalism etc all need work but lock is the biggest thing holding him back.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:08 pm

KingsKing wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:46 pm
I watch Richard Sherman and Xavian Howard gush about his route running on a podcast a few days ago, Howard said it’s the only time a player ever turned his inside out on a simple slant , they showed the route and Jeudy beat him off the line for a clean Td , except lock never saw it and didn’t throw the pass . Jeudy was work to do , his hands and attitude , professionalism etc all need work but lock is the biggest thing holding him back.
This is such a lazy take. Drew Lock has been bad; but Jeudy has still struggled mightily on his own. Every. single. QB in the NFL misses open receivers. You don't get an historically low catch rate by playing well (before you slam Lock for this, I'd encourage you to check out literally every other WR on that offense). There is more to playing WR than getting open in the NFL.. you also need to reliably catch the ball through contact and make reasonable adjustments to non-perfect passes.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:10 pm

Looks like Jeudy saved himself.

Higgins got hurt early and didn't play after I don't think. That would bring his average down to 56.75. I say round up!

Jefferson needs a super tier. What a rookie season.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby timeEd32 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 am

Nice finish for Viska -- I'm very torn on if this is going to be a great selling opportunity with the Lawrence hype (and possibly Meyer) or if he's going to make a real Year 2 leap.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:10 pm
Looks like Jeudy saved himself.

Higgins got hurt early and didn't play after I don't think. That would bring his average down to 56.75. I say round up!

Jefferson needs a super tier. What a rookie season.
The scary part about Jefferson is that 1000 yd mark is basically a super tier. I mean he's the 13th guy ever to do it I believe and looking at the prior 12 its an over 80% hit rate to become at least a low end stud. After the only two busts the "worst" players to ever do this are arguably Keenan allen and amari Cooper from a fantasy perspective.

And then we realize he's legit blowing this benchmark out of the water rather than just beating it by 1-150 yards

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:21 am

Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:10 pm
Looks like Jeudy saved himself.

Higgins got hurt early and didn't play after I don't think. That would bring his average down to 56.75. I say round up!

Jefferson needs a super tier. What a rookie season.
The scary part about Jefferson is that 1000 yd mark is basically a super tier. I mean he's the 13th guy ever to do it I believe and looking at the prior 12 its an over 80% hit rate to become at least a low end stud. After the only two busts the "worst" players to ever do this are arguably Keenan allen and amari Cooper from a fantasy perspective.

And then we realize he's legit blowing this benchmark out of the water rather than just beating it by 1-150 yards
I believe DD listed it at 90% stud (3+ 1k seasons) for the top tier. It would be incredibly unlikely for him not to accomplish that unless there is a drastic change of situation or major injury. At this point JJ is likely not worth pursuing in your leagues because his cost has peaked.

More importantly, I'm looking at the next tiers- Aiyuk, Higgins, Lamb, Claypool, Jeudy. This is where bargains can be had because there is still some risk involved.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:31 pm

Jeudy's chances at a new QB just shot up significantly
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:43 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:31 pm
Jeudy's chances at a new QB just shot up significantly
And he said all the right things in his end of the year presser. Looks like he's going to be laser focused on catching this off-season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN-3UVb8Xlk

I still think Lock could be the guy given the high level QB play he shows from time to time. If he can eliminate the negative plays he has a bright future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D215Mo5 ... e=emb_logo

This will also be the first year he's ever had the same OC two years in a row (which probably matters to him more than most QBs given that he's not the smartest guy).

But it'd be silly for the Broncos to not hedge their bets if one of the top 4 QBs are still there when they pick -- which can only help Jeudy (and the rest of the broncos receivers) chance at seeing improved QB play.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:19 pm

They're definitely bringing in at least some player who can challenge Lock. A viable backup QB was a hole entering the season.

At 9, Denver is high enough to take a chance on another QB. It doesn't seem like they'll have the cap space to swing a deal for Wentz, but smarter people than me know how to get around that.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:25 pm

CGW wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:21 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:10 pm
Looks like Jeudy saved himself.

Higgins got hurt early and didn't play after I don't think. That would bring his average down to 56.75. I say round up!

Jefferson needs a super tier. What a rookie season.
The scary part about Jefferson is that 1000 yd mark is basically a super tier. I mean he's the 13th guy ever to do it I believe and looking at the prior 12 its an over 80% hit rate to become at least a low end stud. After the only two busts the "worst" players to ever do this are arguably Keenan allen and amari Cooper from a fantasy perspective.

And then we realize he's legit blowing this benchmark out of the water rather than just beating it by 1-150 yards
I believe DD listed it at 90% stud (3+ 1k seasons) for the top tier. It would be incredibly unlikely for him not to accomplish that unless there is a drastic change of situation or major injury. At this point JJ is likely not worth pursuing in your leagues because his cost has peaked.

More importantly, I'm looking at the next tiers- Aiyuk, Higgins, Lamb, Claypool, Jeudy. This is where bargains can be had because there is still some risk involved.
I know the thread is a bit convoluted but there are two "top tiers" per say, 1k yards or 67+ ypg. The ypg tier is a better group, I think htat's the 90% one. The 1k yard mark is still good but not as elite, I believe that is more around 80%. The only busts from either group were unathletic, and considering JJ is an athletic freak I don't think he really fits at all for having bust potential.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:49 pm

This is the final list for the year. 6 made it into the top tiers. Like I've said earlier, mid-40s is still promising, so Shenault may have missed the cut but there's still reason to be hopeful. As for the rest, there will still be good players and likely even studs from the under 47 group, it just becomes much much less likely. If I did my maths right, realistically we are looking at about 2 Stud and 2 Good players to emerge from the under 47 group.

Historically, only 1 of Lamb or Aiyuk will become a stud, and only 1 of Higgins, Claypool or Jeudy will become a stud. Interesting thought experiment!

Kind of funny to see mainstream sports people just now realizing what a historic season JJ is having when we were seeing it trending that way since October.

*Stud rate in group 47-56 bumped up a bit due to Diggs getting his 3rd 1k season this year. I'll have to go back and comb through the rest of the players to see if anything else has changed.


Update For Week 17


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Justin Jefferson [87]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Brandon Aiyuk [62]
CeeDee Lamb [58]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Tee Higgins [56]
Chase Claypool [54]
Jerry Jeudy [53]


-----------------------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-22% Good or better

-----------------------------------

37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
6-10% Stud
22% Good or better
Laviska Shenault [42]
Denzel Mims [39]
Darnell Mooney [39]
Michael Pittman [38]
Gabriel Davis [37]

27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
6-10% Stud
19% Good or better
Jalen Reagor [36]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
KJ Hamler [29]

17-26 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
6-10% Stud
17% Good or better
Quintez Cephus [26]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [25]
Collin Johnson [19]
Marquez Callaway [19]

7-16 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
6-10% Stud
11% Good or better
Bryan Edwards [16]
Isaiah Wright [14]
Van Jefferson [13]
John Hightower [12]
Devin Duvernay [12]
Tyler Johnson [12]
Freddie Swain [9]
Austin Mack [8]

0-6 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
2% Stud
4% Good or better
Tyrie Cleveland [6]
K.J. Hill [4]
Malik Taylor [4]
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine [2]
James Proche [1]
Penny Hart [0]
Dan Chisena [0]
K.J. Osborn [0]
Joe Reed [0]

__________________________________________________

*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample. Minimum of 9 games played.
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