WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby AussieMate » Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:26 pm

KingsKing wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:05 pm
Steve Smith and Antonio Brown come to mind, Marquise Brown is about the same size too. I'm not sure he has the inner dog in him that AB and Smith had.
It's definitely happened with some although I'm not a believer in M.Brown, also good chance he's even smaller than the 1.75m his profile says as players seem to cone in slightly smaller than their college measurements. Either way I do like Moore a lot more than M.Brown and hope he gets on a team that knows how to use him early on.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 am

Chwf3rd wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:14 pm
TheBelgian wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:44 pm
In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39] :cry:
Jalen Reagor [38] :wall:
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34] :doh:
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12] :sick:
Van Jefferson [11] :thumbdown:
If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above
This list was intentionally excluding rushing numbers I believe.

I would be curious to see a list that did include all scrimmage yards though and see if it changes things historically. Aiyuk, Lamb, and Shenault all had 5-10 rush yards per game.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:36 am

CGW wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 am
Chwf3rd wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:14 pm
TheBelgian wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:44 pm
In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39] :cry:
Jalen Reagor [38] :wall:
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34] :doh:
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12] :sick:
Van Jefferson [11] :thumbdown:
If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above
This list was intentionally excluding rushing numbers I believe.

I would be curious to see a list that did include all scrimmage yards though and see if it changes things historically. Aiyuk, Lamb, and Shenault all had 5-10 rush yards per game.
In this scenario Viska would have 52 ypg. If we just consider receiving yards he's still only at 44 after eliminating the game he left early.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:44 am

Both Higgins and Jeudy shock me as far as their rookie year, for very different reasons. Currently regret taking Mims over Higgins, but come on, dude was an athletic slug who was mainly good at deep balls in college? Pass every time. Still makes no sense, but that's the NFL and fantasy football for you - expect yearly if not weekly nonsense and unpredictability.

Here's hoping Jeudy takes an Adams-like path to greatness - Adams was atrocious his first two years, and of course, I sent him packing. Whoops! I'd like to not make the same mistake twice.

Other than those very distracting rookie picks I did and didn't make, I'm looking forward to how Davis, Shenault and Johnson develop. Already feel like Davis is a Diggs-like late-round gem, and think Johnson could be too. Shenault's still a true wild card to me.
Last edited by DLF3000 on Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | G Davis ® | An Brown | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ®
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:52 am

DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:44 am
Both Higgins and Jeudy shock me as far as their rookie year, for very different reasons. Currently regret taking Mims over Higgins, but come on, dude was an athletic slug who was mainly good at deep balls in college? Pass every time. Still makes no sense, but that's the NFL and fantasy football for you - expect yearly if not weekly nonsense and unpredictability.
Higgins getting blasted for his workout metrics was a bit unwarranted. He doesn't look slow on film, and displayed decent YAC ability at Clemson. His in game MPH, while definitely not a burner, aligned with his pro day 40 time (instead of the .5 seconds typically tacked on to pro day times). He's also a huge receiver (which makes him less reliant on athleticism to win) with an elite breakout age.

Jeudy's alligator arms and issues with catching through contact have followed him from Alabama to DEN.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am

Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:52 am
Jeudy's alligator arms and issues with catching through contact have followed him from Alabama to DEN.
Well, if Dionte Johnson can drop everything in sight yet still get open every play and have people think he's actually good at football, here's hoping Jeudy can too.

To be fair, I can't think of any great early-career alligator arms prospects who went on to become great players. Drops, sure, but that? Anybody?
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RB - C Carson | A Ekeler | A Jones | R Mostert+ | B Snell | J Wilson | G Edwards | D Dallas ®* | A McFarland ®* | R Penny | L Perine ®
WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | G Davis ® | An Brown | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ®
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
DST: Ravens | TMK: Ravens | 2021 - 3,3,4,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:05 pm

DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am
Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:52 am
Jeudy's alligator arms and issues with catching through contact have followed him from Alabama to DEN.
Well, if Dionte Johnson can drop everything in sight yet still get open every play and have people think he's actually good at football, here's hoping Jeudy can too.

To be fair, I can't think of any great early-career alligator arms prospects who went on to become great players. Drops, sure, but that? Anybody?
I actually am not that down on Jeudy. I believe he has the potential to be a rock solid WR2 in this league, but he's going to need to dedicate himself to improving his catching ability (which is truly terrible right now).

Diontae's drops are mostly focus drops (which are still a problem, but more fixable imo). He also routinely makes tough catches through contact. Diontae drops the ball because he's thinking too much about what he's going to do after the catch. Jeudy drops them because of poor technique, body control, and because he's scared to get hit. Completely different issues, same result.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:10 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:05 pm
Diontae's drops are mostly focus drops (which are still a problem, but more fixable imo). He also routinely makes tough catches through contact. Diontae drops the ball because he's thinking too much about what he's going to do after the catch. Jeudy drops them because of poor technique, body control, and because he's scared to get hit. Completely different issues, same result.
Yikes, looks like I'll be trading him sooner than later... :x
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QB - P Mahomes | D Prescott+
RB - C Carson | A Ekeler | A Jones | R Mostert+ | B Snell | J Wilson | G Edwards | D Dallas ®* | A McFarland ®* | R Penny | L Perine ®
WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | G Davis ® | An Brown | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ®
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
DST: Ravens | TMK: Ravens | 2021 - 3,3,4,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Chwf3rd » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:18 pm

DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:44 am
Both Higgins and Jeudy shock me as far as their rookie year, for very different reasons. Currently regret taking Mims over Higgins, but come on, dude was an athletic slug who was mainly good at deep balls in college? Pass every time. Still makes no sense, but that's the NFL and fantasy football for you - expect yearly if not weekly nonsense and unpredictability.

Here's hoping Jeudy takes an Adams-like path to greatness - Adams was atrocious his first two years, and of course, I sent him packing. Whoops! I'd like to not make the same mistake twice.

Other than those very distracting rookie picks I did and didn't make, I'm looking forward to how Davis, Shenault and Johnson develop. Already feel like Davis is a Diggs-like late-round gem, and think Johnson could be too. Shenault's still a true wild card to me.
I liked Tee Higgins a lot coming out because he was so incredibly smooth for being as big as he is.

That said, there were two significant red flags with him at Clemson which made his bust potential high for me:
(1) struggled to get off press; and
(2) struggled to create consistent separation
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, PRivers
RB: AKamara, JMixon, DHenderson, LMcCoy, RArmstead, TPollard
WR: ACooper, SDiggs, CSamuel, AJGreen, SWatkins, AMiller, DiJohnson, ZPascal
TE: MAndrews, ISmith, KWarring
Record: 4-6
Picks: 1, 1, 1

Team 2 - 12 team, PPR, superflex
QB: MStafford, SDarnold, DJones, BRoethlisberger, ALuck
RB: DCook, PLindsay, TColeman, DSingletary, JWhite, DFreeman, CHyde, MWalton, RMostert, MGaskin, QOllison
WR: DAdams, MEvans, SDiggs, DSamuel, SWatkins, MHardman, GAllison
TE: JDoyle, TBurton, DKnox, DFells, KWarring
Record: 6-4
Picks: 1, 2, 2

Team 3 - 12 team, PPR, 2QB, 2TE
QB: DWatson, CWentz, MStafford, DJones, ALuck
RB: NChubb, DMontgomery, SMichel, KDrake, CHyde, TJohnson, MWalton, KBallage, CThompson, JDMcKissic, QOllison
WR: THill, DAdams, SDiggs, DSamuel, PCampbell, DiJohnson, JCrowder, JWashington, ALazard, ATate
TE: GKittle, HHenry, TJHock, KWarring
Record: 8-2
Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:19 pm

DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:10 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:05 pm
Diontae's drops are mostly focus drops (which are still a problem, but more fixable imo). He also routinely makes tough catches through contact. Diontae drops the ball because he's thinking too much about what he's going to do after the catch. Jeudy drops them because of poor technique, body control, and because he's scared to get hit. Completely different issues, same result.
Yikes, looks like I'll be trading him sooner than later... :x
I want to see how he looks catching the ball next year after an off-season dedicated to improving his catching technique. He could get away with it in college because there is a lot of really bad CB play in CFB and he got wide open with regularity. Jeudy's starting to separate himself from the rest of the WRs on this team and he's able to generate separation in the NFL (even if the elite CBs stick onto him, those guys will mostly be on Courtland Sutton next year).

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby PR0v3 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:24 pm

DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am
Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:52 am
Jeudy's alligator arms and issues with catching through contact have followed him from Alabama to DEN.
Well, if Dionte Johnson can drop everything in sight yet still get open every play and have people think he's actually good at football, here's hoping Jeudy can too.

To be fair, I can't think of any great early-career alligator arms prospects who went on to become great players. Drops, sure, but that? Anybody?
TO and Randy Moss had alligator arms their entire careers.
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QB: Dak, Jimmy G, Trubisky, Dalton, Mullens
RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, C. Davis, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, VJeff
TE: Andrews, Gesicki
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:26 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:24 pm
DLF3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am
Sriracha wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:52 am
Jeudy's alligator arms and issues with catching through contact have followed him from Alabama to DEN.
Well, if Dionte Johnson can drop everything in sight yet still get open every play and have people think he's actually good at football, here's hoping Jeudy can too.

To be fair, I can't think of any great early-career alligator arms prospects who went on to become great players. Drops, sure, but that? Anybody?
TO and Randy Moss had alligator arms their entire careers.
Ah, I remember that now with Moss, but not so much with TO - definitely remember drops with TO.

All right, it's not total doom for JJ... just mostly doom! :thumbup:

P.S. Does that one Ricky Watters play count? :wink:
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QB - P Mahomes | D Prescott+
RB - C Carson | A Ekeler | A Jones | R Mostert+ | B Snell | J Wilson | G Edwards | D Dallas ®* | A McFarland ®* | R Penny | L Perine ®
WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | G Davis ® | An Brown | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ®
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:24 pm

CGW wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 am
Chwf3rd wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:14 pm
TheBelgian wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:44 pm
In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39] :cry:
Jalen Reagor [38] :wall:
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34] :doh:
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12] :sick:
Van Jefferson [11] :thumbdown:
If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above
This list was intentionally excluding rushing numbers I believe.

I would be curious to see a list that did include all scrimmage yards though and see if it changes things historically. Aiyuk, Lamb, and Shenault all had 5-10 rush yards per game.
Not sure if this is quite what you're asking but these are the receivers who would get a big boost from adding rushing yards (>70 rushing yards, 9+ games played)

Yds from Scrimmage/G
----------74---------- Joey Galloway (64 Receiving YPG)
----------72---------- Eddie Royal (65 Receiving YPG)
----------68---------- Brandon Aiyuk (62 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- CeeDee Lamb (59 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- Deebo Samuel (53 Receiving YPG)
----------63---------- DeSean Jackson (57 Receiving YPG)
----------62---------- Brandon Cooks (55 Receiving YPG)
----------61---------- Percy Harvin (52 Receiving YPG)
----------60---------- DJ Moore (49 Receiving YPG)
----------58---------- Lee Evans (52 Receiving YPG)
----------57---------- Michael Westbrook (47 Receiving YPG)
----------53---------- Tyreek Hill (37 Receiving YPG)
----------48---------- Laviska Shenault (40 Receiving YPG)
----------46---------- Peter Warrick (37 Receiving YPG)
----------43---------- Tavon Austin (32 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Cordarrelle Patterson (29 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Jacoby Ford (29 Receiving YPG)
----------33---------- Reidel Anthony (28 Receiving YPG)


It shuffles things around but not sure it means much. The top of the list is still comprised of the guys with the best Receiving yards per game. It bumps most guys up a tier but not really sure it's warranted. It changes Eddie Royal from 50/50 to a can't miss stud lol. The only major positive change I see in which it takes a guy from the depths and brings him up to relevancy is Tyreek, who happened to destroy everyone else in rushing yards per game @ 16.7. Next highest was Tavon Austin @ 11.6. For context, Shenault is at 7.2 Rushing YPG and Lamb is at 5.3 Rushing YPG.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:55 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:24 pm
CGW wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 am
Chwf3rd wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:14 pm


If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above
This list was intentionally excluding rushing numbers I believe.

I would be curious to see a list that did include all scrimmage yards though and see if it changes things historically. Aiyuk, Lamb, and Shenault all had 5-10 rush yards per game.
Not sure if this is quite what you're asking but these are the receivers who would get a big boost from adding rushing yards (>70 rushing yards, 9+ games played)

Yds from Scrimmage/G
----------74---------- Joey Galloway (64 Receiving YPG)
----------72---------- Eddie Royal (65 Receiving YPG)
----------68---------- Brandon Aiyuk (62 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- CeeDee Lamb (59 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- Deebo Samuel (53 Receiving YPG)
----------63---------- DeSean Jackson (57 Receiving YPG)
----------62---------- Brandon Cooks (55 Receiving YPG)
----------61---------- Percy Harvin (52 Receiving YPG)
----------60---------- DJ Moore (49 Receiving YPG)
----------58---------- Lee Evans (52 Receiving YPG)
----------57---------- Michael Westbrook (47 Receiving YPG)
----------53---------- Tyreek Hill (37 Receiving YPG)
----------48---------- Laviska Shenault (40 Receiving YPG)
----------46---------- Peter Warrick (37 Receiving YPG)
----------43---------- Tavon Austin (32 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Cordarrelle Patterson (29 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Jacoby Ford (29 Receiving YPG)
----------33---------- Reidel Anthony (28 Receiving YPG)


It shuffles things around but not sure it means much. The top of the list is still comprised of the guys with the best Receiving yards per game. It bumps most guys up a tier but not really sure it's warranted. It changes Eddie Royal from 50/50 to a can't miss stud lol. The only major positive change I see in which it takes a guy from the depths and brings him up to relevancy is Tyreek, who happened to destroy everyone else in rushing yards per game @ 16.7. Next highest was Tavon Austin @ 11.6. For context, Shenault is at 7.2 Rushing YPG and Lamb is at 5.3 Rushing YPG.
Thanks for that. I usually dont factor in rushing when evaluating my WR, but was curious.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Hottoddies » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:49 am

dustyroads wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:42 pm
TB3falcons wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:27 pm
Really don't understand why the Steelers have scaled Claypool back so much. Then again, their offense had been in completely disarray for a few weeks until the 2nd half this past week. Curious what the situation will be like next year.
Ben’s deep ball just hasn’t really been there, especially as the season has gone on. Every once in a while he throws a dime, but doesn’t seem as consistent as it used to be. Bit of a chicken or the egg; but I’d say they are scheming towards this resulting in his lowest yards per attempt ever, and less Claypool screaming down the sidelines.
There are a couple factors in play here. Big Ben has been using a much quicker release this year so his average depth of targets are way down and the fact that Tomlin has been holding Claypool out lately to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall. I think you'll see more of Claypool in the playoffs.
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