So this PFF grade thing was really making me wonder so I actually paid for a PFF subscription to look at this. Results are interesting. Nothing a whole lot to gain but something maybe. I was going to make a new thread to put this alongside an updated version of this thread but then i got lazy. Some grades for some players are only based on maybe 20 targets or so, so take some of these numbers with a grain of salt. I probably should have identified the low target players but I forgot.
I should also mention that I used their receiving grades and not their overall grades. Overall grade tended to get some false positives with receivers who are good at rushing like Cordarelle Patterson. It seemed far better and consistent to use receiving grade instead.
PFF Grade for Studs (All YPG groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)
PFF Grade for Good (All YPG groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)
PFF Grade for Bust (37+ YPG)
READ - The busts average is misleading because I didn't look up the pff grade for all busts, it was only busts for the higher YPG (like 37+ or so), so the average really should be lower. But not much lower. Maybe by 5 points or so, as was the drop from the studs group to the good group.
Average 67.8
High 75.1 (Kenny Britt)
Low 57.5 (Greg Little)
So basically the higher the pff grade the better, but there isn't some massive difference between the groups. Only about 5 points or so on average separate the groups.
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Below are all rookie wr's sorted into categories. 80+ has a great success rate. Under 60 has a high failure rate. However, I've noticed in more recent years that several under 60 receivers have broken out in subsequent years. So not sure what is going on there. I highlighted the ones that have had mini-breakouts. Still, not ideal for Ruggs
I should mention I included their entire rookie season, so regular season plus playoffs
WR's as Rookies
80+ PFF Grade - These guys basically don't bust.
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
JJ Nelson (28 targets)
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk
75-80 PFF Grade - At first I thought the 75-80 group was very promising, and it's good but not quite as promising as I thought.
Santonio Holmes
Marques Colston
Sidney Rice
Anthony Gonzalez
Davone Bess
Kenny Britt
Arrelious Benn
Andrew Hawkins
Damaris Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Tyreek Hill (80+ if ignore the playoffs)
Cooper Kupp
Hunter Renfrow
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool
<60 PFF Grade
Hank Baskett
Chad Jackson
Derek Hagan
Laurent Robinson
Dwayne Jarrett
Chaz Schilens
Harry Douglas
Devin Thomas
James Hardy
Keenan Burton
Deon Butler
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Donald Jones
Riley Cooper
Dexter McCluster
Max Komar
Andre Roberts
Stephen Williams
Jonathan Baldwin
Dane Sanzenbacher
Greg Little
Rishard Matthews
Lavon Brazill
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Kevin Elliott
TJ Graham
Keshawn Martin
Josh Boyce
Da’Rick Rogers
Darius Johnson
Ty Montgomery
Darius Jennings
Rashad Greene
Donteea Dye
Devin Smith
Nelson Agholor (48.5)
Keith Mumphery
Josh Docston
Charone Peake
Ricardo Louis
Robby Anderson (56.4)
Braxton Miller
Taywan Taylor
Josh Reynolds
Curtis Samuel (53.6)
Zay Jones
Mike Williams (51.8)
Travis Rudloph
DJ Chark (51.6)
James Washington
Marcell Ateman
Trent Sherfield
Damion Ratley
Miles Boykin
Parris Campbell
KeeSean Johnson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Tyler Johnson
Isaiah Wright
Freddie Swain
Henry Ruggs
KJ Hamler
John Hightower
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In short, I think the simplest way to use pff grading of rookie wr's is to look at who is over 80 and who is under 60. Anything else ends up in a mish mash of results. [edit: and seemingly over 75+ gives you a nice floor when combined with a decent YPG]. Yes, on average the higher the better, but to say always take the receiver graded at 72 over the receiver graded 67 might not get you the best results.