WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:35 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:40 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:31 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:35 pm
No, it’s not the same perspective. Casino games are built on odds. The slot machines have built in odds to the games. For example, for every $1.00 put into the slot machine, it is programmed to give back $.98. This is written in code, it is predictable, it is the odds. Over time, this is what will happen. There may be some jackpots hit every now and then that cost the casino money on that pull, but with a large enough sample size they will make $.02 on every play. The odds are in the casino’s favor. Over time you cannot win.

What people are doing with fantasy football “analytics” and “models” is different. We do not know the odds of the game, we only know the results of the past slot machine pulls. If I play the slot machine, feed it $100 and hit a million dollar jackpot, I made a losing play. My EV on a $100 pull is $98. What the analytic crowd is doing is taking the $1M jackpot, comparing it to the $100 pull, and saying that when I go to the casino next door and play a completely different slot machine that my odds of winning $1M is 100%, since, you know, it just hit that way last time I pulled a slot. That is not how it works.
I'm not talking about the damn slot machines. I'm talking about the oddsmakers that decide what the lines are going to be every sunday. While their model is not perfect they will always come out ahead by using historical data to determine the odds and they'll move the line to even out the bets to get their 10% commission. Is it possible to beat them in the long run? Yes. but it's not likely.
I’m not really sure what your point is then and how it relates to my original post?
I'm not sure how you're previous point relates to my previous post. It seems you're trying to beat around what I was saying because you know it's a valid point and disproves what you were saying. That's what I was getting at.

Either you think oddsmakers don't know what they're doing. Or you agree that making models like this is indicative of what will happen in the future. Which one is it, because one disproves the other.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:07 am

I love this data and appreciate the work that went into it.

That said, I am curious if anyone has a practical use for it outside of validation that stud rookies usually continue being studs for a few years.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco
RB | Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed, Wilson
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal, Coutee
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers, Herndon

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Minshew
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, R. Jones, Singletary, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, D. Johnson, Aiyuk, M. Brown, Slayton, Mooney, Kirk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Perriman
TE | Andrews, Henry, Sample, Schultz

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Glennon, Stidham
RB | Hines, Henderson, Wilkins, Penny, Ahmed, Guice
WR | Evans, Ridley, Golladay, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith
TE | L. Thomas, Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:47 am

CGW wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:07 am
I love this data and appreciate the work that went into it.

That said, I am curious if anyone has a practical use for it outside of validation that stud rookies usually continue being studs for a few years.
I believe it's trying to elaborate on what constitutes as a "stud" rookie.

Obviously productive rookie WRs are going to be hot commodities after their initial season but this data points at markers that would lead you to believe that even if a player like AJB has "spiked" in value he's still on his way up; helping to illuminate buying opportunities.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:56 am

Sriracha wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:47 am
CGW wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:07 am
I love this data and appreciate the work that went into it.

That said, I am curious if anyone has a practical use for it outside of validation that stud rookies usually continue being studs for a few years.
I believe it's trying to elaborate on what constitutes as a "stud" rookie.

Obviously productive rookie WRs are going to be hot commodities after their initial season but this data points at markers that would lead you to believe that even if a player like AJB has "spiked" in value he's still on his way up; helping to illuminate buying opportunities.
Makes sense. The only way I could think to use it was to buy low on players who trend towards the final result but have setbacks like injuries or situation change (Lamb).

Unfortunately, lamb and JJ seem untouchable already in my leagues.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco
RB | Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed, Wilson
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal, Coutee
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers, Herndon

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Minshew
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, R. Jones, Singletary, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, D. Johnson, Aiyuk, M. Brown, Slayton, Mooney, Kirk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Perriman
TE | Andrews, Henry, Sample, Schultz

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Glennon, Stidham
RB | Hines, Henderson, Wilkins, Penny, Ahmed, Guice
WR | Evans, Ridley, Golladay, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith
TE | L. Thomas, Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:02 pm

CGW wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:56 am
Sriracha wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:47 am
CGW wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:07 am
I love this data and appreciate the work that went into it.

That said, I am curious if anyone has a practical use for it outside of validation that stud rookies usually continue being studs for a few years.
I believe it's trying to elaborate on what constitutes as a "stud" rookie.

Obviously productive rookie WRs are going to be hot commodities after their initial season but this data points at markers that would lead you to believe that even if a player like AJB has "spiked" in value he's still on his way up; helping to illuminate buying opportunities.
Makes sense. The only way I could think to use it was to buy low on players who trend towards the final result but have setbacks like injuries or situation change (Lamb).

Unfortunately, lamb and JJ seem untouchable already in my leagues.
Yea, it's tough here because both of them were highly rated prospects out of college. There are likely to be some less vaunted WR's that this might help you with however: Claypool, Aiyuk, Shenault, Edwards, Pittman, Mims, Higgins are potential blow up targets this could help you with depending on how the year shakes out.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:45 pm

Update for week 8;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [80]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Lamb [66]
Higgins [61]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool [54]
Aiyuk [53]
Jeudy [51]

--------------------

5-10%
Shenault [46]
Ruggs [44]
Mims [42]
Mooney [38]
Reagor [37]
Edwards [33]
G. Davis [26]
M. Callaway [25]
Cephus [24]
Hamler [23]
Hightower [21]
Pittman [20]

-Mooney and Shenault are both tracking for enough receptions to vault them ahead of the 5-10% group. Mooney looks like a strong buy right now.
-Pittman is starting to get a bit concerning
-Mims, Reagor, Edwards all have small sample sizes so they can easily boost their numbers up with a few big weeks

I also crunched the numbers on receivers who miss most of their rookie season and it's not good. Of rookie receivers who played in 8 games or less [1995-2015], there were only about 5 hits total (or ~1%). Fulgham fits into that category and previous late round or UDFA hits since 1995 were Donald Driver and Victor Cruz, so maybe we're due? Just something to think about I guess.

Also guys, this weekly update is just for a bit of fun. The numbers at seasons end are what they are. Lamb was in the top group, his situation changed and now he's not. It's just the reality that many rookie wr's deal with. There's a reason a rookie wr only hits 1k yards once every approximately 2 years and it's not always because of lack of talent.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Paul717 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:52 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:45 pm
Update for week 8;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [80]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Lamb [66]
Higgins [61]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool [54]
Aiyuk [53]
Jeudy [51]

--------------------

5-10%
Shenault [46]
Ruggs [44]
Mims [42]
Mooney [38]
Reagor [37]
Edwards [33]
G. Davis [26]
M. Callaway [25]
Cephus [24]
Hamler [23]
Hightower [21]
Pittman [20]

-Mooney and Shenault are both tracking for enough receptions to vault them ahead of the 5-10% group. Mooney looks like a strong buy right now.
-Pittman is starting to get a bit concerning
-Mims, Reagor, Edwards all have small sample sizes so they can easily boost their numbers up with a few big weeks

I also crunched the numbers on receivers who miss most of their rookie season and it's not good. Of rookie receivers who played in 8 games or less [1995-2015], there were only about 5 hits total (or ~1%). Fulgham fits into that category and previous late round or UDFA hits since 1995 were Donald Driver and Victor Cruz, so maybe we're due? Just something to think about I guess.

Also guys, this weekly update is just for a bit of fun. The numbers at seasons end are what they are. Lamb was in the top group, his situation changed and now he's not. It's just the reality that many rookie wr's deal with. There's a reason a rookie wr only hits 1k yards once every approximately 2 years and it's not always because of lack of talent.
How excited should we be about Higgins? His targets are higher than I would've imagined coming into the season with that group of WRs. He can very well get to 1k despite no targets Week 1. Fingers crossed, but I'm starting to get excited.
"Marathon Square" - 16 team full PPR league with 24 player roster. Keep 16 per year indefinitely, draft 8. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST
QB: Deshaun Watson, Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett
RB: Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, Jalen Richard, Trayveon Williams, Eno Benjamin
WR: Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamison Crowder, Kendrick Bourne, Quintez Cephus, Tyler Johnson, Cam Sims, Quez Watkins
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Drew Sample
K: Didn't make 2020 Playoffs. :( No need to hold a kicker during the offseason.
Team DST: Lions, Jets

Picks:
2021: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Disclaimer: My one and only Championship in this league was way back in 2011. Therefore, take my replies with the appropriate grain of salt. :lol:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:18 pm

I think this WR class is gonna mess with this model a bit, thats all im gonna say. I see some of the names on that bottom tier and while many of them wont get to 1000 yards this year merely due to the fact they were injured i do think they have very productive careers, Reagor, mims and Shenault stick out as guys who I think are going to do that.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:20 pm

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:18 pm
I think this WR class is gonna mess with this model a bit, thats all im gonna say. I see some of the names on that bottom tier and while many of them wont get to 1000 yards this year merely due to the fact they were injured i do think they have very productive careers, Reagor, mims and Shenault stick out as guys who I think are going to do that.
I think 2020 is going to be a statistical outlier for a variety of different things.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:26 pm

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:18 pm
I think this WR class is gonna mess with this model a bit, thats all im gonna say. I see some of the names on that bottom tier and while many of them wont get to 1000 yards this year merely due to the fact they were injured i do think they have very productive careers, Reagor, mims and Shenault stick out as guys who I think are going to do that.
Don't think their success will run counter to this "model".

It's just a probability projection for WR's that cross certain threshholds. If WR's don't hit certain thresholds that won't affect the hit rate of those that do. At no point does anyone say you must put up 1,000 yards (or some other threshold) or you won't be fantasy relevant.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:53 pm

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:18 pm
I think this WR class is gonna mess with this model a bit, thats all im gonna say. I see some of the names on that bottom tier and while many of them wont get to 1000 yards this year merely due to the fact they were injured i do think they have very productive careers, Reagor, mims and Shenault stick out as guys who I think are going to do that.
I guess I should add every week that the 47+ group still had 75% of players that were good, they just weren’t “studs”. It’s in no way saying only 28% will be good and the rest will be bad. The percentages do fall off precipitously below 47 though, unless they amass enough receptions as shenault and Mooney are on pace for

And like someone else said, 1k yards is a very rare thing and not at all what you should be expecting for any rookie. That’s the entire point about when rookies do manage it it seems to be something quite special.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:00 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:53 pm
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:18 pm
I think this WR class is gonna mess with this model a bit, thats all im gonna say. I see some of the names on that bottom tier and while many of them wont get to 1000 yards this year merely due to the fact they were injured i do think they have very productive careers, Reagor, mims and Shenault stick out as guys who I think are going to do that.
I guess I should add every week that the 47+ group still had 75% of players that were good, they just weren’t “studs”. It’s in no way saying only 28% will be good and the rest will be bad. The percentages do fall off precipitously below 47 though, unless they amass enough receptions as shenault and Mooney are on pace for

And like someone else said, 1k yards is a very rare thing and not at all what you should be expecting for any rookie. That’s the entire point about when rookies do manage it it seems to be something quite special.
You probably should tbh, this is a looonnnnggg thread by now. Thank you tho.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:07 pm

This list in no way predicts who won't be successful or who will be. It just predicts who's likely to be a repeat stud.

Almost every stud WR in the game currently was not on this list their rookie year.

It's still possible we have a few on this list, although I'm guessing none. I like Higgins to make it. He's been very consistent in yardage, unlike pretty much everyone else who is boom or bust.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco
RB | Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed, Wilson
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal, Coutee
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers, Herndon

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Minshew
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, R. Jones, Singletary, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, D. Johnson, Aiyuk, M. Brown, Slayton, Mooney, Kirk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Perriman
TE | Andrews, Henry, Sample, Schultz

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Glennon, Stidham
RB | Hines, Henderson, Wilkins, Penny, Ahmed, Guice
WR | Evans, Ridley, Golladay, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith
TE | L. Thomas, Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby ThunderTung » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:54 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:45 pm


I also crunched the numbers on receivers who miss most of their rookie season and it's not good. Of rookie receivers who played in 8 games or less [1995-2015], there were only about 5 hits total (or ~1%). Fulgham fits into that category and previous late round or UDFA hits since 1995 were Donald Driver and Victor Cruz, so maybe we're due? Just something to think about I guess.

oh god I hope so. I needed some Campbell reassurance. Although I cant imagine that hit count gets higher when a player misses his first 2 years lol. A man can dream I suppose
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr
Picks(2021):1.01,1.04,2.01,2.05,2.07
QB(1): Hurts
RB(2): Sanders/Harris
WR(2): Edelman/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Hardman/Kirk
K: Jake Elliot
DL(2): Ngakoue/Hicks
LB(2): Hicks/J. Smith
DB(2) Devin McCourty/Mathieu
FLEX: Murray

Bench:
QB: Mayfield/Foles
RB: Barber/JJ Taylor/Burkhead/Ollison
WR: S. Miller/Sims/Campbell/Robinson/ KJ Hill/Meyers
TE: Gronk/Sternberger/Asiasi/Keene
DL: Dex. Lawrence/Allen
LB: Chubb/Barrett/Whitehead/Bentley/Vigil/Jones
DB: Gilmore/Sorenson

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:30 am

ThunderTung wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:54 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:45 pm


I also crunched the numbers on receivers who miss most of their rookie season and it's not good. Of rookie receivers who played in 8 games or less [1995-2015], there were only about 5 hits total (or ~1%). Fulgham fits into that category and previous late round or UDFA hits since 1995 were Donald Driver and Victor Cruz, so maybe we're due? Just something to think about I guess.

oh god I hope so. I needed some Campbell reassurance. Although I cant imagine that hit count gets higher when a player misses his first 2 years lol. A man can dream I suppose
Well, draft capital does help. All athletic. And nearly everyone still had a "bad" 2nd year as well. Here, I'll copy what I wrote in the N'Keal Harry thread


Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:31 am

From 1995-2015, 465 rookie wr's played in 8 games or less. Only 5 of them, or roughly 1%, went on to find success. So the hit rate is abysmal. The big jump to me appears to happen with rookies with 9+ games played. 8 or less and you only have 1 hit per group, 9 or more is where you start getting multiple hits per group and a higher hit rate as well.


8 or less games played;

Studs
Vincent Jackson – 8 games (2nd round pick) (59 yards year 1)(453 yards year 2)
Amani Toomer – 7 games (2nd round pick) (12 yards year 1)(263 yards year 2)
Donald Driver – 6 games (7th round pick) (31 yards year 1)(322 yards year 2)
Santana Moss – 5 games (1st round pick) (40 yards year 1)(433 yards year 2)

Good
Victor Cruz – 3 games (UDFA) (0 yards year 1) (1536 yards year 2)


If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

As for the rest of the players on the list, many busted after just 1 year. Some plodded a long for a few years of 200-300 yards production. Others like Ike Hilliard had O-K careers. And the ones I listed above became studs.

Looking at the "high profile" names on the 8 or less list since 2015, we have;
Travis Fulgham
Allen Lazard
Preston Williams
Parris Campbell
Josh Doctson
John Ross
N'Keal Harry
Kevin White
Dede Westbrook
Keke Coutee
Jalen Guyton
Auden Tate

Oddly enough, Preston Williams has the most rookie receiving yardage of anyone on the 8 or less list from 1995-2019


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