WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:31 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:32 pm
So what you guys are saying is I should trade Jeudy for Patrick, Reagor for Fulgham and maybe Ruggs for Agholor
Noone said this. This started when I said Jeudy- Not as advertised. That's it, because no he doesn't look NFL ready like predicted. Him and Lamb were the guys expected to produce from day 1. Could things turn around? Absolutely they could this is his 1st season playing and a lot of guys don't breakout until year 2 or 3. I was just stating that Jeudy being NFL ready right off the bat was not an accurate assessment coming into the season based on what we know now.
This exactly
Also if over the next 3-4 weeks when ruggs and raegor are healthy if they are made an afterthought for fulgham and agholor and really struggle. Do you not think that would be a fairly sizeable knock on them and should be looked at?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:37 pm

Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:31 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:32 pm
So what you guys are saying is I should trade Jeudy for Patrick, Reagor for Fulgham and maybe Ruggs for Agholor
Noone said this. This started when I said Jeudy- Not as advertised. That's it, because no he doesn't look NFL ready like predicted. Him and Lamb were the guys expected to produce from day 1. Could things turn around? Absolutely they could this is his 1st season playing and a lot of guys don't breakout until year 2 or 3. I was just stating that Jeudy being NFL ready right off the bat was not an accurate assessment coming into the season based on what we know now.
This exactly
Also if over the next 3-4 weeks when ruggs and raegor are healthy if they are made an afterthought for fulgham and agholor and really struggle. Do you not think that would be a fairly sizeable knock on them and should be looked at?
Yeap, that's going to be an indictment on these guys if that's the case. Not the nail in the coffin, but, like with Jeudy there's going to be a dark cloud hovering over their future potential.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:44 pm

Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:31 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:32 pm
So what you guys are saying is I should trade Jeudy for Patrick, Reagor for Fulgham and maybe Ruggs for Agholor
Noone said this. This started when I said Jeudy- Not as advertised. That's it, because no he doesn't look NFL ready like predicted. Him and Lamb were the guys expected to produce from day 1. Could things turn around? Absolutely they could this is his 1st season playing and a lot of guys don't breakout until year 2 or 3. I was just stating that Jeudy being NFL ready right off the bat was not an accurate assessment coming into the season based on what we know now.
This exactly
Also if over the next 3-4 weeks when ruggs and raegor are healthy if they are made an afterthought for fulgham and agholor and really struggle. Do you not think that would be a fairly sizeable knock on them and should be looked at?
For sure. Context does matter though, my personal take on Ruggs is that he's going to have blowup games and duds. Much like Mike Williams and TY Hilton. All 3 are good receivers, but frustrating for fantasy. Reagor is in a weird spot as well with Fulgham. I think any of these 3 outproducing the rookie should be looked into.

Coming into this season though
Agholor was seen as a WR3 level talent for his team
Patrick was seen as someone who probably would be out of the NFL within a year or 2
Noone knew who Fulgham was

I think Patrick and Fulgham have both proven they aren't what we thought they were. More context- Patrick plays a different role and should not affect Jeudy much at all. I'm not sure where Ruggs and Reagor have been playing but I think it's on the outside.

All 3 of these guys are firmly behind Lamb, Jefferson, Claypool and Higgins for me at this point.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby AussieMate » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:25 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:44 pm
Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:31 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:28 pm


Noone said this. This started when I said Jeudy- Not as advertised. That's it, because no he doesn't look NFL ready like predicted. Him and Lamb were the guys expected to produce from day 1. Could things turn around? Absolutely they could this is his 1st season playing and a lot of guys don't breakout until year 2 or 3. I was just stating that Jeudy being NFL ready right off the bat was not an accurate assessment coming into the season based on what we know now.
This exactly
Also if over the next 3-4 weeks when ruggs and raegor are healthy if they are made an afterthought for fulgham and agholor and really struggle. Do you not think that would be a fairly sizeable knock on them and should be looked at?
For sure. Context does matter though, my personal take on Ruggs is that he's going to have blowup games and duds. Much like Mike Williams and TY Hilton. All 3 are good receivers, but frustrating for fantasy. Reagor is in a weird spot as well with Fulgham. I think any of these 3 outproducing the rookie should be looked into.

Coming into this season though
Agholor was seen as a WR3 level talent for his team
Patrick was seen as someone who probably would be out of the NFL within a year or 2
Noone knew who Fulgham was

I think Patrick and Fulgham have both proven they aren't what we thought they were. More context- Patrick plays a different role and should not affect Jeudy much at all. I'm not sure where Ruggs and Reagor have been playing but I think it's on the outside.

All 3 of these guys are firmly behind Lamb, Jefferson, Claypool and Higgins for me at this point.
Both Ruggs and Reagor are outside receivers, haven't seen a lot of Reagor this season obviously. Would be smart for both teams to move them both around a bit and take advantage of the slot role occasionally. I'd like to see both Reagor and Ruggs get used a bit on sweeps and out of the backfield as I think they will both exceed with he ball in their hands, kind of like how Chiefs used Hill in his first year.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby burntfire » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:21 pm

Jeudy will be fine from what I've seen. It took several years for DHop to be DHop. We cant expect these WRs to come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. There will be highs and there will be lows.
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2QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1 Flex, 3 IR

QB: Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Jake Luton
WR: Chris Godwin, A.J Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, Will Fuller, Jalen Reagor, Antonio Brown, Allen Lazard, Travis Fulgham
RB: Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack, Joshua Kelley, Boston Scott, Deejay Dallas
TE: Robert Tonyan Dissley, David Njoku, Jace Sternberger, Drew Sample, Gerald Everett

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:38 pm

Update for week 7;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [90]
Lamb [71]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Higgins [59]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Claypool [56]
Ruggs [53]
Reagor [48]
Jeudy [48]
Aiyuk [47]

--------------------

5-10%
Shenault [46]
Mims [42]
Mooney [34]
Edwards [33]
G. Davis [29]
Hamler [26]
Callaway [25]
Cephus [24]
Pittman Jr. [24]
J. Hightower [24]

It should be worth mentioning that Shenault has a bunch of receptions (29), even if you don't hit the YPG mark I believe 50+ receptions bumps you up to 28% and 60+ bumps you up to 42%.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby blemly » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:05 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:38 pm
Update for week 7;

90%----(67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Jefferson [90]
Lamb [71]

47%----(57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Higgins [59]
Claypool [56]

28%----(47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game)
Ruggs [53]
Reagor [48]
Jeudy [48]
Aiyuk [47]

--------------------

5-10%
Shenault [46]
Mims [42]
Mooney [34]
Edwards [33]
G. Davis [29]
Hamler [26]
Callaway [25]
Cephus [24]
Pittman Jr. [24]
J. Hightower [24]

It should be worth mentioning that Shenault has a bunch of receptions (29), even if you don't hit the YPG mark I believe 50+ receptions bumps you up to 28% and 60+ bumps you up to 42%.
Thanks for the update and this has been interesting to track on a weekly basis. Shouldn’t Claypool be leading the tier below though? He looks to be just shy of the 57-66 category at 56.
Team 1: 12-team 0.5 PPR/1.0 PP1D:
QB: Dak, Cousins, Darnold
RB: CMC, Mixon, Gibson, Guice, Freeman, Cohen, Coleman
WR: DK, Chark, Diontae, Samuel, Hollywood, Shepard, Mims
TE: Hurst, Albert O, Knox
2020: 1, 2

Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TE Prem:
QB: Wilson, Rivers, Foles, Mullens
RB: Mixon, Jacobs, Gibson, Hines, Guice
WR: DJM, Chark, Kupp, Landry, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku

Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Rodgers, Cam
RB: Kamara, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt
WR: Hill, AJB, McLaurin, Woods, Perriman, Shenault
TE: Gesicki, OJH

Team 4 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF TE Prem
QB: Watson, Stafford
RB: Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Gibson
WR: Lamb, Diontae, Pittman, Mims, Shenault, Campbell, Shepard
TE: Knox, Jarwin, Trautman
2021: 1,1,2,2

Team 5 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lock
RB: Sanders, Dobbins, Guice, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Edwards, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Hamler
TE: Herndon, Gesicki
2021: 1,1,1,1, 2, 2

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:27 pm

Uh whoops I’ll have to double check that

Edit: yeah fixed it :shh:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Hottoddies » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:37 pm
Mjvb5 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:31 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:28 pm


Noone said this. This started when I said Jeudy- Not as advertised. That's it, because no he doesn't look NFL ready like predicted. Him and Lamb were the guys expected to produce from day 1. Could things turn around? Absolutely they could this is his 1st season playing and a lot of guys don't breakout until year 2 or 3. I was just stating that Jeudy being NFL ready right off the bat was not an accurate assessment coming into the season based on what we know now.
This exactly
Also if over the next 3-4 weeks when ruggs and raegor are healthy if they are made an afterthought for fulgham and agholor and really struggle. Do you not think that would be a fairly sizeable knock on them and should be looked at?
Yeap, that's going to be an indictment on these guys if that's the case. Not the nail in the coffin, but, like with Jeudy there's going to be a dark cloud hovering over their future potential.
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby DLF3000 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:00 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
I remember his first couple years being hugely disappointing. Topped only by my disappointment since trading him.

Call it whatever you want - patience, luck, a guessing game - bottom line, we're both wrong and right about guys all the time.
10 Team Dynasty PPR, TE Premium (1.5 PPR), 6 pt/pass TD, 1pt/25 yds pass, 1pt/5 carries, 1pt/10yds rush/rec
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX (R/W/T) 1DST 1TMK | 21 Active Roster, 4 Taxi (*), 3 IR/Out (+) | est. '07 | SB x3: 2018 League Champs!

QB - P Mahomes | D Prescott
RB - C Carson | A Ekeler | A Jones | R Mostert | B Snell | A McFarland ®* | D Dallas ®* | R Penny+ | L Perine ®+ | J Jackson+ | G Edwards | P Lindsay
WR - D Hopkins | K Allen | K Golladay | D Slayton | J Jeudy ® | D Mims ®* | G Davis ® | L Shenault ®* | C Johnson ® | An Brown
TE - T Kelce | M Andrews
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:44 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adams had 2 solid vets in front of him both seasons in Nelson/Cobb and James Jones/Cobb. The rookie that is in the most similar situation this season is Gabe Davis as he has not only 2 but 3 solid vets there in front of him. Claypool is probably in a similar spot too. Do of that what you will.

I just don't see how seeing this upsets people and makes them point out every player who didn't perform well right away. These odds are not opinions and they don't really care about how anyone feels about them. This is a nice resource for everyone.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:33 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adams had 2 solid vets in front of him both seasons in Nelson/Cobb and James Jones/Cobb. The rookie that is in the most similar situation this season is Gabe Davis as he has not only 2 but 3 solid vets there in front of him. Claypool is probably in a similar spot too. Do of that what you will.

I just don't see how seeing this upsets people and makes them point out every player who didn't perform well right away. These odds are not opinions and they don't really care about how anyone feels about them. This is a nice resource for everyone.
Also for every davanta adams there's a dozen guys who just plain and simple don't turn into everything. Sure a guy whos irrelevant for two years could turn into the top wr in the league or he could just be a teams wr4 for the rest of his career, one of thems a lot more likely.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby skinfanjon » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:42 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adams had 2 solid vets in front of him both seasons in Nelson/Cobb and James Jones/Cobb. The rookie that is in the most similar situation this season is Gabe Davis as he has not only 2 but 3 solid vets there in front of him. Claypool is probably in a similar spot too. Do of that what you will.

I just don't see how seeing this upsets people and makes them point out every player who didn't perform well right away. These odds are not opinions and they don't really care about how anyone feels about them. This is a nice resource for everyone.
Agree with the sentiment here but its important to note these are not ODDS. They are recent results. Big difference.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:40 am

skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:42 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adams had 2 solid vets in front of him both seasons in Nelson/Cobb and James Jones/Cobb. The rookie that is in the most similar situation this season is Gabe Davis as he has not only 2 but 3 solid vets there in front of him. Claypool is probably in a similar spot too. Do of that what you will.

I just don't see how seeing this upsets people and makes them point out every player who didn't perform well right away. These odds are not opinions and they don't really care about how anyone feels about them. This is a nice resource for everyone.
Agree with the sentiment here but its important to note these are not ODDS. They are recent results. Big difference.
When you group the rookies based on their stats and put a % on them hitting 1k seasons in the future, you just turned it into a probability exercise. Which is almost synonymous with oddsmaking.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby PR0v3 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:28 am

skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:42 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Just for a bit of context, Davante Adams failed to eclipse 500 yards in his first two seasons playing with a great quarterback. Dynasty football is a game of patience.
This is one resource of many. While this isn't the end all be all it should give you insights. Context is important as Davante Adams had 2 solid vets in front of him both seasons in Nelson/Cobb and James Jones/Cobb. The rookie that is in the most similar situation this season is Gabe Davis as he has not only 2 but 3 solid vets there in front of him. Claypool is probably in a similar spot too. Do of that what you will.

I just don't see how seeing this upsets people and makes them point out every player who didn't perform well right away. These odds are not opinions and they don't really care about how anyone feels about them. This is a nice resource for everyone.
Agree with the sentiment here but its important to note these are not ODDS. They are recent results. Big difference.
Yep. This is my problem with the analytics crowd, they do the same thing with dominator rating + draft capital. Past results are not indicative of future performance. You can’t just take X% results and attribute that as the odds of the same thing occuring in the future. That’s not how statistics work.

The boxes these players are being put in are not odds of future performance, they are the historical results of different players given selected variables. The “odds” for current players looking forward are unique for each player/individual given their specific circumstances.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Jameis, Jimmy G, Dalton, Luton, Mullens, Beathard
RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, C. Davis, VJeff
TE: Andrews, Gesicki
K: Myers
2021 picks: 2, 3, 4


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