WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby TimeWillTell » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:18 pm

CGW wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:14 pm
One more game with DiNucci under center and Lamb won't be in our "can't miss" group anymore... I plan on continuing to target him the remainder of the year in anticipation of Prescott or a rookie taking over next year.
Yeah not sure how to use this model for him in this situation other than: you can't. Dallas is so awful now.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:24 pm

TimeWillTell wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:18 pm
CGW wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:14 pm
One more game with DiNucci under center and Lamb won't be in our "can't miss" group anymore... I plan on continuing to target him the remainder of the year in anticipation of Prescott or a rookie taking over next year.
Yeah not sure how to use this model for him in this situation other than: you can't. Dallas is so awful now.
Well, this is the problem with ANY model such as this. They are not predictive in anyway whatsoever. Is the same thing as backtesting stock performance.

Another absolute clunker for Jeudy. I had the broadcast on one of my screens and it seems like Lock is hardly looking for him. Whenever a talented player is an afterthought like that, particularly when the opportunity seems wide open, it makes me wonder what is going on inside the building. Whatever the answer is, he clearly has not distinguished himself as a priority thus far. Its not a RED flag...yet. But its some kinda flag to me.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:40 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Well, this is the problem with ANY model such as this. They are not predictive in anyway whatsoever. Is the same thing as backtesting stock performance.

Another absolute clunker for Jeudy. I had the broadcast on one of my screens and it seems like Lock is hardly looking for him. Whenever a talented player is an afterthought like that, particularly when the opportunity seems wide open, it makes me wonder what is going on inside the building. Whatever the answer is, he clearly has not distinguished himself as a priority thus far. Its not a RED flag...yet. But its some kinda flag to me.
The answer is right in front of you. Lock has been bad and the Broncos playcalling has also been bad. Using it as a referendum against a rookie WR seems like backwards thinking. Denver has a lot to work out offensively right now.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:40 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Well, this is the problem with ANY model such as this. They are not predictive in anyway whatsoever. Is the same thing as backtesting stock performance.

Another absolute clunker for Jeudy. I had the broadcast on one of my screens and it seems like Lock is hardly looking for him. Whenever a talented player is an afterthought like that, particularly when the opportunity seems wide open, it makes me wonder what is going on inside the building. Whatever the answer is, he clearly has not distinguished himself as a priority thus far. Its not a RED flag...yet. But its some kinda flag to me.
The answer is right in front of you. Lock has been bad and the Broncos playcalling has also been bad. Using it as a referendum against a rookie WR seems like backwards thinking. Denver has a lot to work out offensively right now.
Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Slackalacker » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:40 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Well, this is the problem with ANY model such as this. They are not predictive in anyway whatsoever. Is the same thing as backtesting stock performance.

Another absolute clunker for Jeudy. I had the broadcast on one of my screens and it seems like Lock is hardly looking for him. Whenever a talented player is an afterthought like that, particularly when the opportunity seems wide open, it makes me wonder what is going on inside the building. Whatever the answer is, he clearly has not distinguished himself as a priority thus far. Its not a RED flag...yet. But its some kinda flag to me.
The answer is right in front of you. Lock has been bad and the Broncos playcalling has also been bad. Using it as a referendum against a rookie WR seems like backwards thinking. Denver has a lot to work out offensively right now.
Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".
This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:29 pm

Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:40 pm


The answer is right in front of you. Lock has been bad and the Broncos playcalling has also been bad. Using it as a referendum against a rookie WR seems like backwards thinking. Denver has a lot to work out offensively right now.
Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".
This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
yeah i dont see how we can blame the playcalling and QBing while Tim patrick is putting up the numbers he is.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Vcize » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm

Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:40 pm


The answer is right in front of you. Lock has been bad and the Broncos playcalling has also been bad. Using it as a referendum against a rookie WR seems like backwards thinking. Denver has a lot to work out offensively right now.
Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".
This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:16 pm

Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm
Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm


Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".
This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
To be fair, the rules and NFL by the year are making it easier and easier. Even to the point of Davis's rookie year. The NFL knows a track meet sells. Being a defended sucks in the new NFL. Granted, I'd take Jeudy over Davis, but the game and rules get easier by the week, IMO. Calls are getting more and more ridiculous vs the D, all in the overall end result of more offense. It's what the league wants. Comparing WR's this year vs 2014, a "historic class", isn't even the same thing at all, that's how quickly the game is changing, in regards to how the game is called, and planned out. The NFL want to become the Big 12, basically, at least, for the most part, with that SEC physicality, speed, and that Big TEN old school run it up your you know what, sprinkled in. They want the game opened up, and don't care about fair to the D, when all is said and done. They want big plays, and points, because that's what sells, especially in the new Era of our Fantasy Football, which is getting bigger by the day.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:21 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:16 pm
Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm
Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm


This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
To be fair, the rules and NFL by the year are making it easier and easier. Even to the point of Davis's rookie year. The NFL knows a track meet sells. Being a defended sucks in the new NFL. Granted, I'd take Jeudy over Davis, but the game and rules get easier by the week, IMO. Calls are getting more and more ridiculous vs the D, all in the overall end result of more offense. It's what the league wants. Comparing WR's this year vs 2014, a "historic class", isn't even the same thing at all, that's how quickly the game is changing, in regards to how the game is called, and planned out. The NFL want to become the Big 12, basically, at least, for the most part.
I don't know about this. The league prefers keeping it's stars healthy over anything. If it means making it harder to play D that's fine as shootouts are funner to watch and the NFL is entertainment, but I don't think they're deliberately trying to make things harder for the defense. If it was too easy to score it would have the same affect where it wouldn't be as interesting.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Vcize » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:25 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:16 pm
Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm
Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm


This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
To be fair, the rules and NFL by the year are making it easier and easier. Even to the point of Davis's rookie year. The NFL knows a track meet sells. Being a defended sucks in the new NFL. Granted, I'd take Jeudy over Davis, but the game and rules get easier by the week, IMO. Calls are getting more and more ridiculous vs the D, all in the overall end result of more offense. It's what the league wants. Comparing WR's this year vs 2014, a "historic class", isn't even the same thing at all, that's how quickly the game is changing, in regards to how the game is called, and planned out. The NFL want to become the Big 12, basically, at least, for the most part, with that SEC physicality, speed, and that Big TEN old school run it up your you know what, sprinkled in. They want the game opened up, and don't care about fair to the D, when all is said and done. They want big plays, and points, because that's what sells, especially in the new Era of our Fantasy Football, which is getting bigger by the day.
Passing yards per game were less than 1 yard per game higher in 2020 than they were in 2015 (I can't find the numbers for 2021 yet).
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:37 pm

Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:25 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:16 pm
Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm


Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
To be fair, the rules and NFL by the year are making it easier and easier. Even to the point of Davis's rookie year. The NFL knows a track meet sells. Being a defended sucks in the new NFL. Granted, I'd take Jeudy over Davis, but the game and rules get easier by the week, IMO. Calls are getting more and more ridiculous vs the D, all in the overall end result of more offense. It's what the league wants. Comparing WR's this year vs 2014, a "historic class", isn't even the same thing at all, that's how quickly the game is changing, in regards to how the game is called, and planned out. The NFL want to become the Big 12, basically, at least, for the most part, with that SEC physicality, speed, and that Big TEN old school run it up your you know what, sprinkled in. They want the game opened up, and don't care about fair to the D, when all is said and done. They want big plays, and points, because that's what sells, especially in the new Era of our Fantasy Football, which is getting bigger by the day.
Passing yards per game were less than 1 yard per game higher in 2020 than they were in 2015 (I can't find the numbers for 2021 yet).
Oh, well I think Davis sucks, but I also think the game gets easier every year, for WR's to play in the NFL. By design. On an overall spectrum. The talent can sway one way or another in the WR/QB column, so that the yardage from one year to the next may not make it seem that way, but that doesn't mean the agenda is otherwise. Each year, they do everything possible to promote the idea of easier passing in the NFL, by rules, reffing and just the way the game is promoted. Not saying it's a bad thing, it's just what it is. I just feel talking about passing, even from a few years ago, gets harder and harder to compare. Certainly from ten years, ago, and it's just moving faster and faster towards that type of game.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:00 am

Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:57 pm
Slackalacker wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:54 pm


Lock and playcalling being bad do not explain why he is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball".
This seems a lot like Corey Davis and his disappointing first few years. I’ve been low on Lock and I think having him under center will hurt Jeudy. the obvious concern however is that Patrick has had some solid games with Lock, so that can’t be the entire issue.
Jeudy has about 100 fewer yards through 6 games as Corey Davis had his entire rookie season. I think that should give some perspective on how crazy people's expectations for rookie WRs are right now that Jeudy would get lumped in with a guy like Davis.
Misleading stat, Corey Davis dealt with a major hamstring injury and only played in 11 games his rookie year (also tweaking it in his 2nd game back).

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:29 am

Mjvb5 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:29 pm

yeah i dont see how we can blame the playcalling and QBing while Tim patrick is putting up the numbers he is.
Patrick went 3/44 yesterday. Him having a few good games in a dumpster fire offense with trash QBs is not a referendum against a rookie.

Can Jeudy play better? Unquestionably. But the biggest factor right now is Denver's Bottom 5 QB play and awful overall offensive production. I just don't see how you can watch Denver/KC from yesterday and not arrive at that conclusion.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby skinfanjon » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:51 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:29 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:29 pm

yeah i dont see how we can blame the playcalling and QBing while Tim patrick is putting up the numbers he is.
Patrick went 3/44 yesterday. Him having a few good games in a dumpster fire offense with trash QBs is not a referendum against a rookie.

Can Jeudy play better? Unquestionably. But the biggest factor right now is Denver's Bottom 5 QB play and awful overall offensive production. I just don't see how you can watch Denver/KC from yesterday and not arrive at that conclusion.
Bottom 5 QB play and awful offensive production do not explain why Jeudy is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball"

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:26 am

skinfanjon wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:51 am

Bottom 5 QB play and awful offensive production do not explain why Jeudy is an afterthought.

I do not know the answer. The one thing we know for sure is, Jeudy has not done enough for them to think "we have got to get this guy the ball"
Awful QB play and offensive production is the overwhelming reason why Jeudy's numbers are not prolific. That's not to say Jeudy has been some perfect player, because he hasn't been, but putting a rookie into a near dumpster fire offense isn't a great combination, regardless of how NFL ready they are or aren't.

Jeudy had a 20.6% target share coming into this game, which is pretty solid for a player who the coaches have no interest in getting the ball to.

Patrick's a 3rd year WR, who's shown flashes of being better than his UDFA status over those years. His production in a few games isn't a referendum against Jeudy as much as it is a combination of some experience and playing a different role downfield as the X.

Compare Patrick's routes in one of his blowup weeks to Jeudy in one of his better weeks

Image
Image

They're doing different things. Jeudy is playing much more short-to-intermediate (65.8% slot rate), while Patrick is going downfield as an outside receiver. There's a very clear picture of what's going on. Jeudy does need to play better, but the production starts with the Broncos getting better play out of their QB and calling better games.


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