WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm

jjleurquin wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Jeudy and Lamb were viewed as the guys who would succeed regardless of situation and as guys who would do well even with bad QB play. I think it's fair to say Jeudy hasn't been as advertised so far. I would target Higgins or Claypool if I did have him on one of my teams.
I feel like we're misrepresenting what's going on here and acting like Jeudy has been mediocre or something. He hasn't.

Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good? And he's doing it with bad QB play in an awful offense.

I'll again mention that Jeudy's pace does not include any blowup games like other rookie WRs have had. So, he's a breakout game away from swinging the pendulum back over.

This WR class is really good, so I'm not shocked at the results so far. Claypool is the only one who's really been surprising and maybe Jefferson's upside being higher than we thought.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:11 pm

Sriracha wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:46 pm
burntfire wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:38 pm ^This. I think he's looked great for what he's had to deal with. He's become the #1 threat on that offense. Lamb and Claypool aren't.
He isn't the #1 threat on that offense even with Sutton, and Fant missing extended time.

NFL defenses have been treating Tim Patrick as the #1

Patrick's CB matchups: Malcolm Butler, Joe Haden, Carlton Davis, Lamar Jackson, Stephon Gilmore
Jeudy's CB matchups: Mike Hilton, Antoine Winfield, Brian Poole, Jonathan Jones

He is still young, and talented. Could easily turn things around, but there really isn't an excuse for him right now. He isn't ready, yet; which is contrary to what many people expected out of him given his "elite route running" prowess in college.
Jeudy's QBs so far this season:

Drew Lock
Jeff Driskel
Brett Rypien

A collective 6.9 yards/attempt, 57.2 completion %, 70.7 passer rating.

Can we please stop acting like he's in one of the league's premier offenses and blowing an opportunity? Sunday was his worst game. He's been fine outside of that. He's yet to have a breakout game and he's still on pace for over 800 receiving yards.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby AussieMate » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:12 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm
jjleurquin wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Jeudy and Lamb were viewed as the guys who would succeed regardless of situation and as guys who would do well even with bad QB play. I think it's fair to say Jeudy hasn't been as advertised so far. I would target Higgins or Claypool if I did have him on one of my teams.
I feel like we're misrepresenting what's going on here and acting like Jeudy has been mediocre or something. He hasn't.

Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good? And he's doing it with bad QB play in an awful offense.

I'll again mention that Jeudy's pace does not include any blowup games like other rookie WRs have had. So, he's a breakout game away from swinging the pendulum back over.

This WR class is really good, so I'm not shocked at the results so far. Claypool is the only one who's really been surprising and maybe Jefferson's upside being higher than we thought.
I'm with you, I said somewhere that the 2 players who have moved for me even in this short time are Jefferson and Claypool, I'm still waiting to see a lot more on the rest, oh and I'm in on Ruggs now as well.
I am very interested in how the stats end up at seasons end though, very interesting read this thread.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Yarnith » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:14 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm I feel like we're misrepresenting what's going on here and acting like Jeudy has been mediocre or something. He hasn't.

Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good? And he's doing it with bad QB play in an awful offense.

I'll again mention that Jeudy's pace does not include any blowup games like other rookie WRs have had. So, he's a breakout game away from swinging the pendulum back over.

This WR class is really good, so I'm not shocked at the results so far. Claypool is the only one who's really been surprising and maybe Jefferson's upside being higher than we thought.
The reference point is the thread premise of 1000 receiving yard rookies are 83% for lifetime stud status. 900-999 is only 44% and 700-899 is only 23%. So if the OP's model works that means Jeudy's chances of lasting success plummet if he lands in the 850 range and are a mere coin flip if he makes 936. The posts here are mostly in context to the OP's model and that is what we are all tracking and comments are based off.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 pm

Yarnith wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:14 pm The reference point is the thread premise of 1000 receiving yard rookies are 83% for lifetime stud status. 900-999 is only 44% and 700-899 is only 23%. So if the OP's model works that means Jeudy's chances of lasting success plummet if he lands in the 850 range and are a mere coin flip if he makes 936. The posts here are mostly in context to the OP's model and that is what we are all tracking and comments are based off.
I understand the premise, but people are still misrepresenting what's actually happening. Again, before his last game, he was on pace for 931 receiving yards. He had a bad game, and it fell back. We're talking about a small sample size, where the pendulum can just as easily swing with a breakout game. Jeudy has not had a breakout game and his floor is still on pace for a good rookie season. Other players have already flashed breakout games in better situations. Lamb lining up in the slot with Gallup and Cooper taking outside coverage, on a team that was passing at an insane rate to start the season.

The other thing to consider is for the players who hit the thresholds outside of the top one, how do they buck probabilities and become elite? Certainly a player with Jeudy's college profile would be someone who would be in strong consideration to do that.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Sriracha » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:29 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 pm
Yarnith wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:14 pm The reference point is the thread premise of 1000 receiving yard rookies are 83% for lifetime stud status. 900-999 is only 44% and 700-899 is only 23%. So if the OP's model works that means Jeudy's chances of lasting success plummet if he lands in the 850 range and are a mere coin flip if he makes 936. The posts here are mostly in context to the OP's model and that is what we are all tracking and comments are based off.
I understand the premise, but people are still misrepresenting what's actually happening. Again, before his last game, he was on pace for 931 receiving yards. He had a bad game, and it fell back. TLDR: We're talking about a small sample size, where the pendulum can just as easily swing with a breakout game. Jeudy has not had a breakout game and his floor is still on pace for a good rookie season. Other players have already flashed breakout games.

The other thing to consider is for the players who hit the thresholds outside of the top one, how do they buck probabilities and become elite? Certainly a player with Jeudy's college profile would be someone who would be in strong consideration to do that.
Is it still early? Yes.

But it's still concerning to see him outplayed by Tim Patrick despite seeing softer coverage -- especially from a WR that was supposed to come out of the gates running.

Outside of a handful of plays where his change of direction ability looks special he's largely been unremarkable... and he has looked awful with a defender remotely close to him which is personally sounding off warning bells. It isn't necessary to make catches with defenders draped all over you, but you do need to be able to catch the ball with defenders in close proximity.

Hopefully he shows these are all moot points in the coming weeks :thumbup:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:38 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm
jjleurquin wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Jeudy and Lamb were viewed as the guys who would succeed regardless of situation and as guys who would do well even with bad QB play. I think it's fair to say Jeudy hasn't been as advertised so far. I would target Higgins or Claypool if I did have him on one of my teams.
I feel like we're misrepresenting what's going on here and acting like Jeudy has been mediocre or something. He hasn't.

Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good? And he's doing it with bad QB play in an awful offense.

I'll again mention that Jeudy's pace does not include any blowup games like other rookie WRs have had. So, he's a breakout game away from swinging the pendulum back over.

This WR class is really good, so I'm not shocked at the results so far. Claypool is the only one who's really been surprising and maybe Jefferson's upside being higher than we thought.
It's important that we have references to compare to, I think that this season the player with the most similar situation to Jeudy is Darius Slayton. Slayton came into the year in a likely 1a-1b situation with Sterling Shepard and Shepard went down. Jeudy came into he season in a 1a-1b situation with Courtland Sutton and Sutton went down. Neither WR has great QB play or is in a great situation.

For this season
Slayton 25/44 406yds 3TD
Jeudy 17/33 266 yds 1TD

Jeudy has also ceded the top WR role to Patrick whereas Slayton has not done that to Tate. Jeudy was most definitely considered an elite prospect one who many thought would be a top 10 guy. He's not trending in a direction where a receiver with that potential should be trending given that he's considered the best WR on his team.

I'm not sure how you can project breakout performances on a player who hasn't had one yet. I think that's a pretty bad argument to make so I'm not sure why it was brought up again.

Slayton or Jeudy is a legitimate question- Who you got?

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:41 pm

Sriracha wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 pm
Yarnith wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:14 pm The reference point is the thread premise of 1000 receiving yard rookies are 83% for lifetime stud status. 900-999 is only 44% and 700-899 is only 23%. So if the OP's model works that means Jeudy's chances of lasting success plummet if he lands in the 850 range and are a mere coin flip if he makes 936. The posts here are mostly in context to the OP's model and that is what we are all tracking and comments are based off.
I understand the premise, but people are still misrepresenting what's actually happening. Again, before his last game, he was on pace for 931 receiving yards. He had a bad game, and it fell back. TLDR: We're talking about a small sample size, where the pendulum can just as easily swing with a breakout game. Jeudy has not had a breakout game and his floor is still on pace for a good rookie season. Other players have already flashed breakout games.

The other thing to consider is for the players who hit the thresholds outside of the top one, how do they buck probabilities and become elite? Certainly a player with Jeudy's college profile would be someone who would be in strong consideration to do that.
Is it still early? Yes.

But it's still concerning to see him outplayed by Tim Patrick despite seeing softer coverage -- especially from a WR that was supposed to come out of the gates running.

Outside of a handful of plays where his change of direction ability looks special he's largely been unremarkable... and he has looked awful with a defender remotely close to him which is personally sending off warning bells.

Hopefully he shows these are all moot points in the coming weeks :thumbup:
But again...he was on pace for over 900 receiving yards a week ago while being "unremarkable." It doesn't flow. He's not having an all-time rookie season, but he's been fine.

And you still have to consider that he's playing in one of the leagues worst offenses with Bottom 5 QB play so far. 25th in passing attempts, 4.8 yards per play, 6.9 yards per passing attempt. It's extremely low volume. Sure, Patrick has been good these past few games, but let's not act like Jeudy missing out on some masterful opportunity right now.

Because of the small sample size, we are largely discussing the difference of one game.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Ray Finkle » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:42 pm

Cowboysfan33 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:44 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:33 pm I offered Jeudy + Hockenson for Claypool in TE Premium and was rejected.
Wow, I would’ve probably took that, even though Claypool has looked great.
I was just loosely offered (text from a buddy/league mate ) Claypool for my OBJ. Crazy but all 3 of Claypool, Jeudy and OBJ’s values are probably very similar

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby drobes » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:43 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good?
Sure, 800+ yards is great for a rookie WR. But you also have to consider that Jeudy's situation is far different than most rookie WRs.

Typically they are eased in, paying deference to veterans while they earn the coaches trust and gradually climb the depth chart. Jeudy was billed as the most NFL-ready WR of an outstanding class, a potential generational talent. Almost immediately, Sutton went down with a torn ACL and Hamler and Fant have both been out with injuries. Denver is desperate for a WR to step up and be the man but Jeudy hasn't. Tim Patrick seems closer to being that guy (he shouldn't).

It's still early and there is plenty of time for things to start clicking for him. But if he continues to play at his current pace I think it's certainly possible that he could finish with 800 yards over 16 games and still be considered a mild disappointment given his situations and high expectations.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:52 pm

jjleurquin wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:38 pm
It's important that we have references to compare to, I think that this season the player with the most similar situation to Jeudy is Darius Slayton. Slayton came into the year in a likely 1a-1b situation with Sterling Shepard and Shepard went down. Jeudy came into he season in a 1a-1b situation with Courtland Sutton and Sutton went down. Neither WR has great QB play or is in a great situation.

For this season
Slayton 25/44 406yds 3TD
Jeudy 17/33 266 yds 1TD

Jeudy has also ceded the top WR role to Patrick whereas Slayton has not done that to Tate. Jeudy was most definitely considered an elite prospect one who many thought would be a top 10 guy. He's not trending in a direction where a receiver with that potential should be trending given that he's considered the best WR on his team.

I'm not sure how you can project breakout performances on a player who hasn't had one yet. I think that's a pretty bad argument to make so I'm not sure why it was brought up again.

Slayton or Jeudy is a legitimate question- Who you got?
I disagree.

Again, Jeudy had four straight games of 50+ yards or more, where he was on pace for over 930 receiving yards after that stretch. You can not tell me that he was trending in the wrong direction. He had his first off game with 32 yards against New England.

I think you can definitely foreshadow breakout games. Jeudy is still carrying an encouraging 20.6% target share and an aDOT of 13. For your comparison, Slayton's aDOT is 12.8 and his target share is 21.8%. I haven't looked at their schedule, but as long as Jeudy continues to maintain a healthy target share and targets down field, it's certainly possible. Denver's QBs have to play better as well.

Slayton is a 2nd year player, so this isn't an apples-to-apples conversation despite Jeudy's acclaim coming in as a rookie. Slayton's had a few breakout games and Jeudy has yet to have one. It is what it is. It doesn't mean Jeudy is underachieving, because again we're still largely discussing the difference that one game has on the current receiving pace.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:01 pm

drobes wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:43 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good?
Sure, 800+ yards is great for a rookie WR. But you also have to consider that Jeudy's situation is far different than most rookie WRs.

Typically they are eased in, paying deference to veterans while they earn the coaches trust and gradually climb the depth chart. Jeudy was billed as the most NFL-ready WR of an outstanding class, a potential generational talent. Almost immediately, Sutton went down with a torn ACL and Hamler and Fant have both been out with injuries. Denver is desperate for a WR to step up and be the man but Jeudy hasn't. Tim Patrick seems closer to being that guy (he shouldn't).

It's still early and there is plenty of time for things to start clicking for him. But if he continues to play at his current pace I think it's certainly possible that he could finish with 800 yards over 16 games and still be considered a mild disappointment given his situations and high expectations.
This isn't true. Nobody billed Jeudy as a generational prospect. He didn't even go in the range that the typical generational WR prospect does. I don't see how anyone can dog on him for not being NFL ready, given that the pace he's been on throughout the season. It just comes off as recency bias because of the last game.

Again, here is what Denver's offense looks like so far this season:

4.8 yards per play
6.9 yards per pass attempt
27th in passing yards per game
25th in passing attempts
29th in points/game

Why are we acting like this is some excellent situation? Yes, it's great that he's maintaining a healthy target share in this offense, but the QB play has been Bottom 5. It's a low volume offense. Jeudy has not been anything close to amazing so far, but I have no clue why we're talking about him like he's been mediocre as a rookie, even given the context of the thread's premise.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:06 pm

Ray Finkle wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:42 pm
Cowboysfan33 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:44 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:33 pm I offered Jeudy + Hockenson for Claypool in TE Premium and was rejected.
Wow, I would’ve probably took that, even though Claypool has looked great.
I was just loosely offered (text from a buddy/league mate ) Claypool for my OBJ. Crazy but all 3 of Claypool, Jeudy and OBJ’s values are probably very similar
Yeah, it’s crazy how this 2021 WR class is looking like right now, it’s changing values big time right now.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Ray Finkle » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:14 pm

Cowboysfan33 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:06 pm
Ray Finkle wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:42 pm
Cowboysfan33 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:44 pm

Wow, I would’ve probably took that, even though Claypool has looked great.
I was just loosely offered (text from a buddy/league mate ) Claypool for my OBJ. Crazy but all 3 of Claypool, Jeudy and OBJ’s values are probably very similar
Yeah, it’s crazy how this 2021 WR class is looking like right now, it’s changing values big time right now.
I’ll assume you meant 2020 and yes you’re correct. With the handful of rookies making their case coupled with the disappearance of JuJu and injuries for a few vets, the landscape this year and beyond has changed quickly. Not to mention DK and AJB from 2019 demanding crazy adp. I’m thinking some vets will be had relatively cheap in 2021 startups.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:15 pm

drobes wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:43 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:04 pm Before last Sunday, Jeudy had four straight games of 50 yards or more. He was on pace for 936 receiving yards. After last Sunday's game, he's now on pace for a measly 851 receiving yards. In what world is an 851-936 yard rookie season pace not good?
Sure, 800+ yards is great for a rookie WR. But you also have to consider that Jeudy's situation is far different than most rookie WRs.

Typically they are eased in, paying deference to veterans while they earn the coaches trust and gradually climb the depth chart. Jeudy was billed as the most NFL-ready WR of an outstanding class, a potential generational talent. Almost immediately, Sutton went down with a torn ACL and Hamler and Fant have both been out with injuries. Denver is desperate for a WR to step up and be the man but Jeudy hasn't. Tim Patrick seems closer to being that guy (he shouldn't).

It's still early and there is plenty of time for things to start clicking for him. But if he continues to play at his current pace I think it's certainly possible that he could finish with 800 yards over 16 games and still be considered a mild disappointment given his situations and high expectations.
I don't remember anybody labeling Jeudy a generational talent. A great prospect of course, but I don't remember anybody of merit comparing him to the likes of AJ Green, Julio, Megatron, etc.

On to your 2nd point, I get that passing numbers are up, which leads to more WRs being successful, which naturally leads to WRs contributing more at a younger age than before. However, 851 receiving yards would have ranked him 39th overall in the NFL last year in receiving yards.

Lastly, DK Metcalf had 900 total receiving yards last season as a rookie with Russell Wilson and some on here think he should be the WR1 in dynasty. So if Jeudy comes within 50 yards of that with the garbage he has throwing him the ball I'll consider that a successful season.


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