WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Jigga94
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:17 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:16 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:07 pm
47+ is still really good, so I wouldn’t be bailing on Jeudy, but I would be thinking about trying to flip for a wr in a better tier (i.e. Jefferson or Lamb) for sure. Of course it’s still really early and anything can happen with the tiers by the end of the year. One big game and Jeudy is right up there with the others. Once we get more games in we'll have a clearer picture.
I agree with you. 47 still is good. It's just that his value is really the only one I'd say has decreased at this point, and I bet someone will still have him valued at preseason price. Yea any of the 5 in the tiers above him straight up should be a good deal but the Jeudy truthers gonna come in here soon enough and saying that you shouldn't do that.
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Could be a buy low window for Jeudy. I'm not selling low, but someone might
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03-1.06, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:04 am

I feel like at this moment even the most hardcore jeudy truthers should be looking to sell him and acquire jefferson or Lamb. This data looks to be pretty spot on that those two are studs but you also need to look at everything else. Jefferson for instance is producing massive games with an awful Qb and a legit #1Wr who should be taking opportunities away from him. Lamb is in the same situation at the moment. Im the kind of person that makes quick judgements on rookies, its failed before and its been spot on before. I think Jeudy will be good but i dont think he will live up to the massive expectations everyone has of him, these other two i think will and the data so far seems to bear that out.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby CGW » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:05 am

I agree about a buy low rather than sell low. This is a small sample size and could change quickly. Jeudy has underperformed but has had very poor QB play. If they can get Lock going again, Jeudy should benefit. If you can make a move to flip him for a CeeDee or Jefferson it would be a good move, but otherwise I wouldn't be bailing on Jeudy.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby drobes » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:25 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Obv Rypien was terrible but, as a Denverite who's watched the games, I think Lock has actually played much better than his stats would suggest.

His biggest fault is that he's had a tendency to play hero-ball leading to unnecessary interceptions. This kind of stuff kills the team but having a gunslinger mentality at QB should actually pad WR stats. The truth is that he's been consistently let down by his WRs with terrible untimely drops and inability to get separation.

This isn't to say that Jeudy is failing to meet expectations. If Sutton and Hamler didn't get injured, Jeudy might have thrived as a WR2/3 with Sutton as the WR1 and Hamler stretching the field. But it is clear that Jeudy is not rising to the occasion. The opportunity is there but he disappeared for large portions of the Pats game and his targets have been trending down.

Hamler is due back soon so that might change the dynamic, for better or worse.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:37 am

drobes wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:25 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am
Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Obv Rypien was terrible but, as a Denverite who's watched the games, I think Lock has actually played much better than his stats would suggest.

His biggest fault is that he's had a tendency to play hero-ball leading to unnecessary interceptions. This kind of stuff kills the team but having a gunslinger mentality at QB should actually pad WR stats. The truth is that he's been consistently let down by his WRs with terrible untimely drops and inability to get separation.

This isn't to say that Jeudy is failing to meet expectations. If Sutton and Hamler didn't get injured, Jeudy might have thrived as a WR2/3 with Sutton as the WR1 and Hamler stretching the field. But it is clear that Jeudy is not rising to the occasion. The opportunity is there but he disappeared for large portions of the Pats game and his targets have been trending down.

Hamler is due back soon so that might change the dynamic, for better or worse.
I've been watching their games and going back and watching cutups (not a Broncos fan). Lock is definitely their best QB, but even he hasn't performed well. I'll give him a pass because of the injury, but the QB play in Denver has been collectively and individually bad. I'm not sure what occasion there is to rise to given that, but Tim Patrick has two straight 100 yard games and has looked good downfield, so I don't know.

Still, until this past game, Jeudy had four straight games of at least 50+ yards. I mentioned the three drops so far, but what remains encouraging is the 13.0 aDOT and he's still showing the route running that made him great in college.

Denver's offense as a whole just looks really bad.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:04 am
I feel like at this moment even the most hardcore jeudy truthers should be looking to sell him and acquire jefferson or Lamb. This data looks to be pretty spot on that those two are studs but you also need to look at everything else. Jefferson for instance is producing massive games with an awful Qb and a legit #1Wr who should be taking opportunities away from him. Lamb is in the same situation at the moment. Im the kind of person that makes quick judgements on rookies, its failed before and its been spot on before. I think Jeudy will be good but i dont think he will live up to the massive expectations everyone has of him, these other two i think will and the data so far seems to bear that out.
I don't consider those 2 guys as selling or buying low though... Plus I highly doubt any Lamb owner is trading him for Jeudy
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03-1.06, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:54 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:04 am
I feel like at this moment even the most hardcore jeudy truthers should be looking to sell him and acquire jefferson or Lamb. This data looks to be pretty spot on that those two are studs but you also need to look at everything else. Jefferson for instance is producing massive games with an awful Qb and a legit #1Wr who should be taking opportunities away from him. Lamb is in the same situation at the moment. Im the kind of person that makes quick judgements on rookies, its failed before and its been spot on before. I think Jeudy will be good but i dont think he will live up to the massive expectations everyone has of him, these other two i think will and the data so far seems to bear that out.
I don't consider those 2 guys as selling or buying low though... Plus I highly doubt any Lamb owner is trading him for Jeudy
yeah with how lamb and JJ are playing I doubt you can get either for Jeudy without a significant add

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:03 am

Mjvb5 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:54 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 am
Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:04 am
I feel like at this moment even the most hardcore jeudy truthers should be looking to sell him and acquire jefferson or Lamb. This data looks to be pretty spot on that those two are studs but you also need to look at everything else. Jefferson for instance is producing massive games with an awful Qb and a legit #1Wr who should be taking opportunities away from him. Lamb is in the same situation at the moment. Im the kind of person that makes quick judgements on rookies, its failed before and its been spot on before. I think Jeudy will be good but i dont think he will live up to the massive expectations everyone has of him, these other two i think will and the data so far seems to bear that out.
I don't consider those 2 guys as selling or buying low though... Plus I highly doubt any Lamb owner is trading him for Jeudy
yeah with how lamb and JJ are playing I doubt you can get either for Jeudy without a significant add
Ya i wasnt talking straight up, def need to add something, my point is though to try and do it now while its early. You may not want to do it later and have to pay even more on top of Jeudy.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:13 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:03 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:54 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 am


I don't consider those 2 guys as selling or buying low though... Plus I highly doubt any Lamb owner is trading him for Jeudy
yeah with how lamb and JJ are playing I doubt you can get either for Jeudy without a significant add
Ya i wasnt talking straight up, def need to add something, my point is though to try and do it now while its early. You may not want to do it later and have to pay even more on top of Jeudy.
Trying to go out and buy Jefferson right now is just silly and bad economics. Maybe you can buy Lamb from a bad owner but I think most value him highly and you are going to have to overpay. With the overall depth at WR in fantasy football, I'm not sure overpaying for a WR is even really worth it in general, but that is another discussion entirely.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:18 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:03 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:54 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 am


I don't consider those 2 guys as selling or buying low though... Plus I highly doubt any Lamb owner is trading him for Jeudy
yeah with how lamb and JJ are playing I doubt you can get either for Jeudy without a significant add
Ya i wasnt talking straight up, def need to add something, my point is though to try and do it now while its early. You may not want to do it later and have to pay even more on top of Jeudy.
That was my point though. Jeudy is a hold. Unless you know he's going to have this awful QB play forever and never improve. I don't see it
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03-1.06, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:16 am

I think if you're trying to get out on Jeudy (not saying you should but if you are) then I think Lamb and Jefferson are unrealistic targets. You would have to add a whole lot to Jeudy right now for me to give up my share of Jefferson. Higgins is probably a more realistic target the if you think he has shown more.

Obviously I think the situation needs time and we need more data points to accurately access what we have in any of these guys but the longer you leave it, the less you will get if Jeudy continues on his current heading.
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
C. Wentz, D. Jones
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, R. Woods, D. Johnson, A. Brown (TB), D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, C. Kmet

C. Young, R. Okwara, S. HubbardIR
D. Leonard, F. Oluokun, D. Greenlaw, M. Kiser, B. Okereke, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, J. Jones(JAX)

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
T. Brady, R. Fitzpatrick, J. Luton
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, A. Brown (TB), M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, N. Harry, J. Ross, J. GordonSUS
T. Burton, R. Dwelley, J. Sternberger, O. HowardIR, Z. ErtzIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson, A. Epenesa, J. CaseyIR
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, B. Okereke, T. Adams, M. Kiser, T. Edwards, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, J. Okudah, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:08 am

failblazer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:56 am
Extrapolating out yards and receptions on current data for anyone who has played 5-6 games (and yes that is too small of a sample size to action any moves on but I'm bored):

83% - 1000+ Yards
Jefferson - 1432
Lamb - 1325
Claypool - 1072

70% - 70-99 Receptions
Lamb - 96
Jefferson - 75

44% - 900-999 Yards
Higgins - 904

42% - 60-69 Receptions
Shenault - 69 - So very, very close to moving up

36% - 750-899 Yards
Jeudy - 851

Again a disclaimer, these are figured extrapolated out from a very small sample size and can fluctuate wildly as we get more data but it will definitely be something I'll keep an eye on over the course of the season.
Hey thanks for this :thumbup:

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby failblazer » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:11 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:08 am
failblazer wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:56 am
Extrapolating out yards and receptions on current data for anyone who has played 5-6 games (and yes that is too small of a sample size to action any moves on but I'm bored):

83% - 1000+ Yards
Jefferson - 1432
Lamb - 1325
Claypool - 1072

70% - 70-99 Receptions
Lamb - 96
Jefferson - 75

44% - 900-999 Yards
Higgins - 904

42% - 60-69 Receptions
Shenault - 69 - So very, very close to moving up

36% - 750-899 Yards
Jeudy - 851

Again a disclaimer, these are figured extrapolated out from a very small sample size and can fluctuate wildly as we get more data but it will definitely be something I'll keep an eye on over the course of the season.
Hey thanks for this :thumbup:
No worries, I am finding it interesting tracking the numbers. Massive thanks to you for doing all the hard work on going through the historical data on this.
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
C. Wentz, D. Jones
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, R. Woods, D. Johnson, A. Brown (TB), D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, C. Kmet

C. Young, R. Okwara, S. HubbardIR
D. Leonard, F. Oluokun, D. Greenlaw, M. Kiser, B. Okereke, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, J. Jones(JAX)

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
T. Brady, R. Fitzpatrick, J. Luton
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, A. Brown (TB), M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, N. Harry, J. Ross, J. GordonSUS
T. Burton, R. Dwelley, J. Sternberger, O. HowardIR, Z. ErtzIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson, A. Epenesa, J. CaseyIR
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, B. Okereke, T. Adams, M. Kiser, T. Edwards, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, J. Okudah, B. McDougaldIR

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jjleurquin » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:11 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am

Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Jeudy and Lamb were viewed as the guys who would succeed regardless of situation and as guys who would do well even with bad QB play. I think it's fair to say Jeudy hasn't been as advertised so far. I would target Higgins or Claypool if I did have him on one of my teams.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:21 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:22 am

Jeudy has by far the worst QB play out of any of the first round WRs so far. I wouldn't say he hasn't been as advertised. He does need to correct the drops though.
Jeudy and Lamb were viewed as the guys who would succeed regardless of situation and as guys who would do well even with bad QB play. I think it's fair to say Jeudy hasn't been as advertised so far. I would target Higgins or Claypool if I did have him on one of my teams.
Almost no chance you're getting Claypool for him right now. I say that both as a Claypool owner who would not trade him for Jeudy, and a Jeudy owner who offered Jeudy + 1 for Claypool and got rejected. I'm sure there are a few owners out there that would still take Jeudy over Claypool, but for the most part Claypool is being valued over Jeudy right now in most leagues.


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