WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

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Dynasty DeLorean
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WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:44 am

Given current information, odds for players who entered the league between the years of 2016-2019 of becoming a star player[i.e. 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons];

83% (Year 1 Breakout for 1k yards)
Michael Thomas
AJ Brown

52% (Year 2 or 3 Breakout for 1k yards)
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Kenny Golladay
Tyreek Hill
D.J. Moore
Juju Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Chris Godwin
Tyler Boyd
Cooper Kupp
Mike Williams

42-44% (60-69 rookie receptions or 900-999 rookie receiving yards)
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Calvin Ridley
Sterling Shepard

28-29% (50-59 rookie receptions or 700-899 rookie receiving yards)
Diontae Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Keelan Cole

5-10% (Every player not listed above)
- Notable players include Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, Corey Davis, Andy Isabella, JJAWS, Parris Campbell, Curtis Samuel, N'Keal Harry :vsad: , John Ross, Miles Boykin, Josh Reynolds, Robby Anderson

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For whatever reason, my hypothesis was that receivers with high draft pedigree (top 3 rounds) who broke out their first 2 years in the NFL had a much better success rate than others. I decided to do a little research and my results were very interesting.

I looked at the period of 1995-2015 and did the best I could to identify receivers who broke out for 1k receiving yards in the NFL. I noted which year they broke out and whether or not they continued to be "good" [i.e. 3+ 1k yard seasons] or if they fell off [i.e. "busted"].

edited: re-did the study and I believe these are more accurate numbers

Year 1 Breakout
Hits – 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%


Year 2 breakout
Hits – 18
Busts – 18
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%


Year 3 breakout
Hits – 17
Busts – 14
Hit Rate – 55%
Bust Rate – 45%


Year 4 breakout
Hits – 11
Busts – 13
Hit Rate – 46%
Bust Rate – 54%


Year 5 breakout
Hits – 7
Busts – 9
Hit rate – 44%
Bust rate – 56%



The difference between a year 1 and year 2 was (edit: significant). Also, the difference between year 2 - 5 was just as shocking in that it was almost nonexistent.

If we want to use this information towards the current "unknown" players (so players from 2016-now), this puts Michael Thomas and AJB in a tier above everyone else.

While it may not be breaking news that WRs who break out their 1st year in the NFL are good, I think it is confirmation that buying high on these players is a safe play. For example, buying high on AJB right now while the trend is to fade his efficiency could be savvy move. On the other hand, buying high on 2nd and 3rd year breakout players might not be quite as safe as you'd think.

One interesting thing is that the "busts" for the year 1 breakout group were Kelvin Benjamin and Michael Clayton. KB was well known as a turd athlete. Claytons testing is a bit more ambiguous but i'm seeing reports of a 4.67 40 as well. I think best case scenario we are looking at both being subpar athletes here.



__________________________________________________________________________


Rookie Reception Yards Per Game, min 8 games played

67+
Hits – 9
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Rate – 10%

2016-2019 Rookies
Michael Thomas

_________________________________________

57-66
Hits – 7
Busts – 8
Hit Rate – 47%
Bust Rate – 53%
11 of 15 (73%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
A.J. Brown
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cooper Kupp

_________________________________________

47-56
Hits – 8
Busts – 21
Hit Rate – 28%
Bust Rate – 72%
22 of 29 (76%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
DK Metcalf
Preston Williams
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Calvin Ridley
D.J. Moore
Christian Kirk

_________________________________________

37-46
Hits – 3
Busts – 39
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%
10 of 42 (24%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Keelan Cole
Hunter Renfrow
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Courtland Sutton
Kenny Golladay
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Marquise Brown
Robert Foster
Corey Coleman
Dante Pettis
Tyler Boyd
Tyreek Hill

_________________________________________

27-36
Hits – 6
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
11 of 63 (17%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Corey Davis
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup
Breshad Perriman
Trent Taylor
Malcolm Mitchell
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Equanimeous St. Brown

_________________________________________

17-26
Hits – 7
Busts – 66
Hit Rate – 10%
Bust Rate – 90%
13 of 73 (18%) fantasy relevant for several years

2016-2019 Rookies
Keith Kirkwood
Cody Core
Jakobi Meyers
Kendrick Bourne
Kelvin Harmon
Zay Jones
Geronimo Allison
Ricky Seals-Jones
Scott Miller
Tim Patrick
Chester Rogers
Steven Sims
KeeSean Johnson
Olabisi Johnson
DaeSean Hamilton

_________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________


Breakdowns by rookie season yardage and receptions
Defining a hit by 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
Draft Position is Ignored
1995-2015


Rookie season yardage

1000+
Hits - 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown

________________________________________

900-999
Hits 4
Busts 5
Hit rate 44%
Bust rate 56%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
D.K. Metcalf

________________________________________

800-899
Hits 4
Busts 11
Hit rate 27%
Bust rate 73%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Cooper Kupp
Calvin Ridley
Deebo Samuel

________________________________________

700-799
Hits 6
Busts 14
Hit rate 30%
Bust rate 70%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
D.J. Moore
Keelan Cole
Darius Slayton
Courtland Sutton

________________________________________

600-699
Hits 1
Busts 17
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Will Fuller
Hunter Renfrow
Tyler Boyd

________________________________________

500-599
Hits 2
Busts 29
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Eli Rogers
Tyreek Hill
Christian Kirk
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquise Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robert Foster
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup

________________________________________

400-499
Hits – 2
Busts – 33
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Breshad Perriman
Kenny Golladay
Dante Pettis
Trent Taylor
Preston Williams
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Malcolm Mitchell

________________________________________

300-399
Hits – 6
Busts – 28
Hit Rate – 18%
Bust Rate – 82%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Corey Davis
Kelvin Harmon
Jakobi Meyers
Dede Westbrook
Equanimeous St. Brown
Zay Jones
Tim Patrick
Steven Sims

________________________________________

200-299
Hits – 5
Busts – 65
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Olabisi Johnson
Keke Coutee
Zach Pascal
Kendrick Bourne
Taywan Taylor
James Washington
Scott miller

________________________________________

100-199
Hits – 6
Busts – 95
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella
KeeSean Johnson
Kevin White
DJ Chark
JJAWS
Parris Campbell
Curtis Samuel
N'Keal Harry
Josh Reynolds

________________________________________

0-99
There were hundreds of names so I didn't go through them all with a fine toothed comb, but from what I can gather the hit rate is at about 1%. Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Amani Toomer the hits in nearly 600 names.

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Chad Hansen
Trey Quinn
Riley Ridley
Russell Gage
Auden Tate
Allen Lazard
Justin Watson
John Ross
Mike Williams
Leonte Carroo
Josh Doctson
Braxton Miller
Demarcus Robinson
"Good" Mike Thomas
Lequon Treadwell


- Even if you cross reference by draft round, the highest hit rate I can get for the 500-599 group is 10%. So draft capital really doesn’t seem to play much of a role.


________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________


Rookie Season Receptions

100+
Hits 1
Busts 0
Hit rate 100%
Bust rate 0%

________________________________________

90-99
Hits 2
Busts 1
Hit rate 67%
Bust rate 33%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas

________________________________________

80-89
Hits 1
Busts 1
Hit rate 50%
Bust rate 50%

________________________________________

70-79
Hits 4
Busts 1
Hit rate 80%
Bust rate 20%

________________________________________

60-69
Hits 8
Busts 11
Hit rate 42%
Bust rate 58%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Tyreek Hill

________________________________________

50-59
Hits 7
Busts 18
Hit rate 28%
Bust rate 72%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Brown

________________________________________

40-49
Hits – 2
Busts – 34
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Hunter Renfrow
Darius Slayton
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Marquise Brown
Antonio Callaway
Christian Kirk
Trent Taylor
Courtland Sutton
Keelan Cole
Robby Anderson
Tajae Sharpe

________________________________________

30-39
Hits – 4
Busts – 44
Hit Rate – 8%
Bust Rate – 92%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Steven Sims
Corey Davis
Chris Godwin
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Breshad Perriman
Preston Williams
Malcolm Mitchell
Olabisi Johnson
Kelvin Harmon
DaeSean Hamilton

________________________________________

20-29
Hits – 10
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 15%
Bust Rate – 85%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Greg Ward
Keke Coutee
Tre`Quan Smith
Kenny Golladay
Robert Foster
Zach Pascal
Dante Pettis
Zay Jones
Dede Westbrook
Mecole Hardman
Jakobi Meyers
Ty Johnson
Tim Patrick
DeAndre Carter
KeeSean Johnson
Dquanimeous St. Brown

________________________________________

10-19
Hits – 5
Busts – 102
Hit Rate – 5%
Bust Rate – 95%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Kevin White
Parris CAmpbell
James Washington
Kendrick Bourne
Curtis Samuel
DJ Chark
Miles Boykin
Scott Miller
N'Keal Harry
Mike Williams
JJAWS

_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________



Below are 1k yard breakout years for wrs
*** indicates a "bust"


2019
AJ Brown – Year 1

2018
DJ Moore – Year 2

Courtland Sutton – Year 2
DJ Chark – Year 2

Michael Gallup – Year 2

2017
Mike Williams – Year 3

Juju Smith-Schuster – Year 2

Cooper Kupp – Year 3
Chris Godwin – Year 3
Kenny Golladay – Year 2

2016
Michael Thomas – Year 1
Tyler Boyd – Year 3

________________________________________

2015
Amari Cooper – Year 1

2014
Sammy Watkins – Year 2 ***
Mike Evans – Year 1
Odell Beckham Jr. – Year 1
Brandin Cooks – Year 2
Kelvin Benjamin – Year 1 ***

Allen Robinson – Year 2
Jarvis Landry – Year 2

2013
DeAndre Hopkins – Year 2

Keenan Allen – Year 1







2012
Michael Floyd – Year 2 ***
Kendall Wright – Year 2 ***

Alshon Jeffery – Year 2

TY Hilton – Year 3

2011
A.J. Green – Year 1
Julio Jones – Year 2

Torrey Smith – Year 3 ***

2010
Demaryius Thomas – Year 3
Dez Bryant – Year 3

Eric Decker – Year 3

2009
Hakeem Nicks – Year 2 ***

Mike Wallace – Year 3

2008
Desean Jackson – Year 2

2007
Calvin Johnson – Year 2
Dwayne Bowe – Year 2

Sidney Rice – Year 3
Steve Smith [NYG ] – Year 3 ***

2006
Greg Jennings – Year 3

2005
Braylon Edwards – Year 3 ***
Roddy White – Year 3

2004
Larry Fitzgerald – Year 2
Roy Williams – Year 3 ***
Lee Evans – Year 3 ***
Michael Clayton – Year 1 ***

2003
Andre Johnson – Year 2

Anquon Boldin – Year 1

Nate Burleson – Year 2 ***

2002
Ashley Lelie – Year 3 ***
Javon Walker – Year 3 ***

2001
Koren Robinson – Year 2 ***
Rod Gardner – Year 2 ***
Santana Moss – Year 3

Chad Johnson – Year 2

Steve Smith – Year 3

2000
Plaxico Burress – Year 2


Laveranues Coles – Year 3
Darrell Jackson – Year 2

1999
Torry Holt – Year 2
David Boston – Year 2 ***

Kevin Johnson – Year 3 ***

Marty Booker – Year 3 ***

1998
Randy Moss – Year 1

Germane Crowell – Year 2 ***

1996
Keyshawn Johnson – Year 3
Tarry Glenn – Year 1
Eric Moulds – Year 3


Terrell Owens – Year 3


1995
Joey Galloway – Year 1

Frank Sanders – Year 3 ***

Antonio Freeman – Year 3

________________________________________
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:51 pm, edited 14 times in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:05 am

If you have 14 hits and 9 busts in year two, how does that work out to a 36% hit rate?
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:32 am

Good work here. You lured me in with the Kenny Banya reference, then provided some solid research. +1.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:55 am

ahh, david boston. he broke out and then thought he was a bodybuilder instead of a football player.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:10 am

ericanadian wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:05 am
If you have 14 hits and 9 busts in year two, how does that work out to a 36% hit rate?
Yeah, could you explain the hit/bust rates? It’s unclear how you’re calculating that.

I like the premise.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby straightcashhomie831 » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:41 am

good work, appreciate it. Worth the read for me. One question i have is, would it be possible to lower the "Breakout" criteria. IMO 1000 yds is a lot.

I think a guy like Jarvis Landry coming in as a rookie and catching 84 recs for 750 yds 6tds. i think thats a breakout. Deebo Samuel 57 recs 800yds + 140 yds rushing. All that after being eased into a run first offense. I want to say Darius Slayton too but that might be too little. 48 recs, 740 yds 8Tds. I think DJ Moore had a great rookie year with Cam at QB . 82 targets, 52 catches and 788 yds.

Im just curious and throwing out a few questions i had. You got my mind working a bit.
Last edited by straightcashhomie831 on Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby TimeWillTell » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:43 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:10 am
ericanadian wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:05 am
If you have 14 hits and 9 busts in year two, how does that work out to a 36% hit rate?
Yeah, could you explain the hit/bust rates? It’s unclear how you’re calculating that.

I like the premise.
I think he means hits that meet his criteria but then fail to repeat, which he then labels a bust and implies maybe we sell 2nd and 3rd year breakouts instead of looking to acquire them. Or at least knowing there's more risk than we all possibly thought
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:43 am

straightcashhomie831 wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:41 am
good work, appreciate it. Worth the read for me. One question i have is, would it be possible to lower the "Breakout" criteria. IMO 1000 yds is a lot.

I think a guy like Jarvis Landry coming in as a rookie and catching 84 recs for 750 yds 6tds. i think thats a breakout. Deebo Samuel 57 recs 800yds + 140 yds rushing. All that after being eased into a run first offense. I want to say Darius Slayton too but that might be too little. 48 recs, 740 yds 8Tds.

Im just curious and throwing out a few questions i had. You got my mind working a bit.
Maybe fantasy points is a better threshhold over receiving yards? Someone like Percy Harvin would then be included. Catch those rush & kick return yards.
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby straightcashhomie831 » Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:12 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:43 am
straightcashhomie831 wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:41 am
good work, appreciate it. Worth the read for me. One question i have is, would it be possible to lower the "Breakout" criteria. IMO 1000 yds is a lot.

I think a guy like Jarvis Landry coming in as a rookie and catching 84 recs for 750 yds 6tds. i think thats a breakout. Deebo Samuel 57 recs 800yds + 140 yds rushing. All that after being eased into a run first offense. I want to say Darius Slayton too but that might be too little. 48 recs, 740 yds 8Tds.

Im just curious and throwing out a few questions i had. You got my mind working a bit.
Maybe fantasy points is a better threshhold over receiving yards? Someone like Percy Harvin would then be included. Catch those rush & kick return yards.
idk what's better. but it would be cool to have a list so we can catch guys like DJ Moore who had 55 recs on 82 targets for 788 yds. Darius Slayton is a guy i mentioned earlier because i've been trading for him...i think he showed Break out ability. Deebo Samuel. If he's not considered a breakout then i'd buy him before he does.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:26 am

ericanadian wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:05 am
If you have 14 hits and 9 busts in year two, how does that work out to a 36% hit rate?
I was tired lol. I’ll fix

Edit: ok I fixed the numbers. It does put the year 2 and 3 breakouts closer to 50% chance of continuing to “be good”, which is still lower than I would have thought, but It’s not as drastic as when I was tired and doing math wrong

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Patsfan86 » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:35 am

Id like to throw Metcalf in here as a breakout as well. 58-900-7 with a 160 yard playoff game is a breakout for all intents and purposes. I fully agree though about the year 1 WR breakout. I saw it with MT as a rookie and made the mistake of trading him. I bought DK for this exact reason since i consider his rookie year a year one breakout.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Johnny Canuck » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:09 am

Patsfan86 wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:35 am
Id like to throw Metcalf in here as a breakout as well. 58-900-7 with a 160 yard playoff game is a breakout for all intents and purposes. I fully agree though about the year 1 WR breakout. I saw it with MT as a rookie and made the mistake of trading him. I bought DK for this exact reason since i consider his rookie year a year one breakout.
I love DK as a player, but I think you'd have to redo the entire data set with the new goalposts of 900 yards, to see if the outlook was still as valid of a measure.

It would be somewhat interesting to see the information with different benchmarks, that way we could try and zero in on a more refined rookie yardage benchmark. 1000 yards feels like the old adage, but that number we throw out arbitrarily may be outdated.

Anyways, great work Delorean. Nice to see a post that makes you think. If I use your method to check different 900/800/700 etc benchmarks I'll post it, but if someone beats me to it that would be good lol
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:47 am

This “study” was done elsewhere which showed the same results, but different criteria. It’s interesting for sure
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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:43 pm

straightcashhomie831 wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:41 am
good work, appreciate it. Worth the read for me. One question i have is, would it be possible to lower the "Breakout" criteria. IMO 1000 yds is a lot.

I think a guy like Jarvis Landry coming in as a rookie and catching 84 recs for 750 yds 6tds. i think thats a breakout. Deebo Samuel 57 recs 800yds + 140 yds rushing. All that after being eased into a run first offense. I want to say Darius Slayton too but that might be too little. 48 recs, 740 yds 8Tds. I think DJ Moore had a great rookie year with Cam at QB . 82 targets, 52 catches and 788 yds.

Im just curious and throwing out a few questions i had. You got my mind working a bit.
My assumption is that you’d see similar results but with the overall hit rates lower since it’s a lower threshold to cross. But idk. If anyone wants to give it a go that would be great.

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Re: WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

Postby jetsfan5757 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:56 am

I could see lowering the breakout for year 1 ONLY to 850 or 900 yards, or a fantasy point threshold.

Year 2 or 3 breakouts, and avoiding bust status I'd still like to see it be a higher threshold: maybe WR2 level points, or 1,000 yards to keep it simple.
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QB (1): Brees, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, David Johnson, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, R. Penny, K. Vaughn
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, P. Williams, D. Mims
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas, I. Smith Jr

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): B. Martinez
DL (1): D. Fowler Jr.

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.


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