2021 Free Agent RB Class Is Stacked...and Problematic.

[Cameron Giles]

Potential FAs next year:

Derrick Henry
Todd Gurley
Leonard Fournette
Dalvin Cook
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara
Joe Mixon
Kenyan Drake
Chris Carson
James Conner
Marlon Mack
Tarik Cohen
Phillip Lindsay

Ridiculously stacked talent wise, but....with another competent RB class coming in, as well as some of these backs likely wanting a lot of money, there could be a real short supply and preference to not pay RBs. Could see some RBs heading for reduced roles.

[Blueboy]

It'll be a mess. One has to imagine that the tier of Cook/Mixon/Kamara/Henry are all guaranteed to get a good contract on the open market, if their current teams let them go. But everyone else on that list... I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't able to get a deal even comparable to what Melvin Gordon just got.

[ericanadian]

Le’Veon Bell seems pretty likely to join them with the out in his contract after this season.
David Johnson becomes an affordable cut after this season if things don’t work out in 2020.
Tevin Coleman isn’t on the same level as these guys, but he’ll also be an FA.
James White & Kareem Hunt also slated for FA.

[Shankopotamus]

Gotta wonder if some of these guys get resigned on the cheap. Agents gonna have a rough time negotiating with supply vastly outweighing demand.

[IR1]

Kind of makes sense for the guys on their rookie contract to hold out now for an extension

[Bronco Billy]

Kind of makes sense for the guys on their rookie contract to hold out now for an extension

You think it is a good idea to hold out in the face of a plethora of supply? I must have slept through that lesson.

[ericanadian]

Kind of makes sense for the guys on their rookie contract to hold out now for an extension

You think it is a good idea to hold out in the face of a plethora of supply? I must have slept through that lesson.

I think he means this year with regards to Cook, Mixon, Henry etc.

[Bronco Billy]

Kind of makes sense for the guys on their rookie contract to hold out now for an extension

You think it is a good idea to hold out in the face of a plethora of supply? I must have slept through that lesson.

I think he means this year with regards to Cook, Mixon, Henry etc.

RBs and Ss have seriously diminished leverage. In my mind it’s foolhardy to offer up ultimatums in that environment. Those positions are either going to have to compromise and take less salary than other positions (maybe live with a $5M contract instead of $10M. Horrors!)
or be prepared to have their bluff called and find work in some other occupation. It’s just the way things shake out when you’re not in the premium tier in your profession and there are others guys who can fill your spot.

I think given their choice, all 3 guys you mentioned are on teams that want to keep them around, but I also think that all 3 are not going to react well to being strong armed.

[FiremanEd]

Potential FAs next year:

Derrick Henry
Todd Gurley
Leonard Fournette
Dalvin Cook
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara
Joe Mixon
Kenyan Drake
Chris Carson
James Conner
Marlon Mack
Tarik Cohen
Phillip Lindsay

Ridiculously stacked talent wise, but....with another competent RB class coming in, as well as some of these backs likely wanting a lot of money, there could be a real short supply and preference to not pay RBs. Could see some RBs heading for reduced roles.

I could be wrong, but am not too hyped about the incoming class. If we miss on the 2020 season, then even fewer breakouts will be presented to generate hype. I view the draft class situation as a potential benefit to the FA class, rather than hindrance.

[Johnny Canuck]

Potential FAs next year:

Derrick Henry
Todd Gurley
Leonard Fournette
Dalvin Cook
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara
Joe Mixon
Kenyan Drake
Chris Carson
James Conner
Marlon Mack
Tarik Cohen
Phillip Lindsay

Ridiculously stacked talent wise, but....with another competent RB class coming in, as well as some of these backs likely wanting a lot of money, there could be a real short supply and preference to not pay RBs. Could see some RBs heading for reduced roles.

I could be wrong, but am not too hyped about the incoming class. If we miss on the 2020 season, then even fewer breakouts will be presented to generate hype. I view the draft class situation as a potential benefit to the FA class, rather than hindrance.

Agree with Fireman Ed here.

Even if everyone we hope declares for the draft, 2021 is the yr of the WR and QB. It's not a great year for RB depth. I'm only really hyped about Etienne (he could easily steal lots of teams starting job), and view Hubbard/Harris/Journey Brown as decent enough prospects but don't think they'd be taking any spots over some of the established free agents (esp with guys like Kamara, Hunt, Henry, Cook, Mixon, Gurley, Aaron Jones, etc. available).

NTM, with the uncertainty around the draft and scouting this yr, I think we will see GMs more apt to solidify positions via free agency (especially if supply is high, and known talents can be had cheaper than usual). Imo, GMs looking to address RB via the draft will be teams that are cap strapped, or have owners that have been impacted greater by covid/don't have as deep of pockets and are trying to save some money.

[Cameron Giles]

We can remove Henry from this projection. Long-term deal with Titans is imminent.

[bjd5211]

It'll be a mess. One has to imagine that the tier of Cook/Mixon/Kamara/Henry are all guaranteed to get a good contract on the open market, if their current teams let them go. But everyone else on that list... I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't able to get a deal even comparable to what Melvin Gordon just got.

Not really, I don't see them as being much better or different than Melvin Gordon unless they can stay healthy for 16 games and have massive years, especially when there will be a large number of RB options for teams.

Henry is probably getting extended in the next 30 minutes so that removes him.

Kamara could be relatively highly sought after though.

[YouMightDieTryin]

We can remove Henry from this projection. Long-term deal with Titans is imminent.

Good for Henry, but I don't see the logic behind it for Tennessee. There must be a decent terms in there to boot him in 2-3 years without a huge hit. 26 years of age, huge back that takes a pounding to his knees/body, and would be 30 at the end of the contract (which is typical top career RB age). I'd keep him on the tag this year, let him walk next year, and pay someone from above half of what you'd have to pay Henry while drafting another potential workhorse rookie.

But like originally stated Henry is owed his dues and glad he's getting what he deserves.

[Space Cowboy]

That'll water down the market even more. Lol a lot of these guys are gonna be pissed.

[StripesOfKC]

That'll water down the market even more. Lol a lot of these guys are gonna be pissed.

Production wise some of these guys can improve just from hopping from one committee role to another--Mack (which I don't think will be a committee by the end of the season if we have one) and Cohen mainly

The mid tier guys are gonna be hard to gauge though, especially if Kamara and Cook hit the market