COVID Sell-Highs

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COVID Sell-Highs

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:28 pm

I wanted to start a thread to compile a list of the players that we should consider selling if you're operating under the impression that we won't have a 2020 fantasy season. (There's no need to debate whether or not we'll have a season, there are like 4 other threads where that's being/been hashed out.) Here's who I've got:

QB- Dwayne Haskins: No team will be more likely to draft Lawrence if there's no season. Passing up on Cam was one thing; but passing up on Trevor Lawrence is a different beast entirely. I have no idea if Haskins would land on his feet if Washington took Lawrence.
QB- Brady/Roethlisberger/Brees- All of these guys would be losing one of the few seasons of their career that they have left.
QB- Minshew: Replace Lawrence with Fields and you have Minshew's situation.

RB- Mark Ingram: I can't think of a RB whose value is more closely tied toward the idea that he'll produce in 2020.
RB- Ronald Jones/Keyshawn Vaughn: Both of these guys could easily be replaced after the season

WR- Davante Adams: If you can still get a WR2 overall value for him, just do it. The next time he takes a snap Jordan Love could be the QB and he could be playing across from one of these 2021 rookie WRs.
WR- Devante Parker: ADP seems to be based on projected volume in 2020. If there's no season, Miami seems like a perfect destination for Chase.

TE- Hayden Hurst: It's harder to find one here. My concern would be that the consolidated target distribution we're projecting for ATL in 2020 might look very different in 2021.
Last edited by OhCruelestRanter on Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID Sells

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:39 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:28 pm
I wanted to start a thread to compile a list of the players that we should consider selling if you're operating under the impression that we won't have a 2020 fantasy season. (There's no need to debate whether or not we'll have a season, there are like 4 other threads where that's being/been hashed out.) Here's who I've got:

QB- Dwayne Haskins: No team will be more likely to draft Lawrence if there's no season. Passing up on Cam was one thing; but passing up on Trevor Lawrence is a different beast entirely. I have no idea if Haskins would land on his feet if Washington took Lawrence.
QB- Brady/Roethlisberger/Brees- All of these guys would be losing one of the few seasons of their career that they have left.
QB- Minshew: Replace Lawrence with Fields and you have Minshew's situation.

RB- Mark Ingram: I can't think of a RB whose value is more closely tied toward the idea that he'll produce in 2020.
RB- Ronald Jones/Keyshawn Vaughn: Both of these guys could easily be replaced after the season

WR- Davante Adams: If you can still get a WR2 overall value for him, just do it. The next time he takes a snap Jordan Love could be the QB and he could be playing across from one of these 2021 rookie WRs.
WR- Devante Parker: ADP seems to be based on projected volume in 2020. If there's no season, Miami seems like a perfect destination for Chase.

TE- Hayden Hurst: It's harder to find one here. My concern would be that the consolidated target distribution we're projecting for ATL in 2020 might look very different in 2021.
Agree overall but Dolphins taking a WR is more of an effect on Preston

With Minshew though I think the risk of Lawrence is already baked into his price

Hurst call is a good one that I didn't think of
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift,, CEH, Dobbins, Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Pollard, Cohen, Tevin Coleman
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 4 3rds, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rd, 3 4ths

Team 2

10 Team 2QB PPR
2020-21 Runner Up
QB: Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dalton
RB: CEH, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Tevin Coleman
WR: Diggs, ARob, Golladay, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault Kupp, Mooney, Gabriel Davis
TE: Fant, Trautman
D: Panthers
K: Blankenship
Picks
2021: 1.9, 2.4, 2.9, 3.9
2022: 1st, 2 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: COVID Sells

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:47 pm

For some reason I thought this was a political rant based on the title and started to get kinda frustrated.

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Re: COVID Sells

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:47 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:39 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:28 pm
I wanted to start a thread to compile a list of the players that we should consider selling if you're operating under the impression that we won't have a 2020 fantasy season. (There's no need to debate whether or not we'll have a season, there are like 4 other threads where that's being/been hashed out.) Here's who I've got:

QB- Dwayne Haskins: No team will be more likely to draft Lawrence if there's no season. Passing up on Cam was one thing; but passing up on Trevor Lawrence is a different beast entirely. I have no idea if Haskins would land on his feet if Washington took Lawrence.
QB- Brady/Roethlisberger/Brees- All of these guys would be losing one of the few seasons of their career that they have left.
QB- Minshew: Replace Lawrence with Fields and you have Minshew's situation.

RB- Mark Ingram: I can't think of a RB whose value is more closely tied toward the idea that he'll produce in 2020.
RB- Ronald Jones/Keyshawn Vaughn: Both of these guys could easily be replaced after the season

WR- Davante Adams: If you can still get a WR2 overall value for him, just do it. The next time he takes a snap Jordan Love could be the QB and he could be playing across from one of these 2021 rookie WRs.
WR- Devante Parker: ADP seems to be based on projected volume in 2020. If there's no season, Miami seems like a perfect destination for Chase.

TE- Hayden Hurst: It's harder to find one here. My concern would be that the consolidated target distribution we're projecting for ATL in 2020 might look very different in 2021.
Agree overall but Dolphins taking a WR is more of an effect on Preston

With Minshew though I think the risk of Lawrence is already baked into his price

Hurst call is a good one that I didn't think of
Yeah, I mean it's probably baked into Haskins' price as well, but those guys can still be moved for potentially safer, if uninspiring options like Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins.
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Re: COVID Sells

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:48 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:47 pm
For some reason I thought this was a political rant based on the title and started to get kinda frustrated.
Oh whoops. Yeah. It reads like "sex sells." Maybe I should have titled it COVID Sell Highs?
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Re: COVID Sells

Postby Prison_Mike » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:52 pm

I've been giving this topic a lot of thought, so kudos for making this thread

RB: Due to the nature of the position, I think I would add Conner, Bell, and Carson to this list
WR: Julio probably belongs here based on his age, although I'd still expect him to be very productive for another year
Team 1:
12-team | Half PPR | 1QB
Start: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX
QB: Dak, Hurts, Bridgewater
RB: Saquon, Sanders, Hines, Pollard, Penny, Coleman
WR: Godwin, DJM, OBJ, Kirk, Mooney, MJJ, Patrick, Watkins, Meyers, Tyrell
TE: Jonnu, Herndon, Kmet, I.Thomas
2021 Picks: 2.06, 4.09

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | 1QB
Start: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLX/DST/K
QB: Dak, Big Ben, Garropolo, Cam
RB: Zeke, Sanders, Dobbins, J.Robinson, White, D-Will, Bell, Justice
WR: Hopkins, Keenan, Boyd, DJM, Lamb, Mooney, AB, T.Johnson
TE: Waller, Hock, Jarwin, Herndon, Oliver

Team 3:
12-team | SuperFlex | Tiered PPR - (TEs = 1.25ppr, WRs = 0.75, RBs = 0.25)
Start: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/4FLEX/1SF
QB: Jackson, Wilson, Winston, Tyrod
RB: Sanders, Montgomery, Mack, Evans, Gallman, Ingram, McKinnon
WR: Thomas, OBJ, Kupp, Lockett, Gallup, Kirk, S.Miller, J.Brown, Reynolds, Tyrell, Conley, Quez
TE: Fant, Ertz, Kmet, Njoku, Akins, I.Thomas
2021 Rookie Picks: 1.07, 4.09

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:54 pm

Drake, Bell, Hopkins, Adams, Beckham, Julio, MT, , Kelce. All top end guy, or being valued as such at or beyond the age apex who are going to lose a year of top end production (if things go wrong) and see a value decline due to age in Dynasty in a significant way soon.

Ingram,Brady, Brees, Gronk. Guys being valued based on this year, basically.

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Re: COVID Sells

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:05 pm

The crappy part is that every player "loses value" with a lost season, but I like this because it forces us to think who loses the most value.

Basically, it's the older guys and the guys with a weaker grip on their jobs that stand to lose the most value if the season is canceled. My list:

QB
Ben - Basically has 1-2 years left, so a lost season potentially pushes him into retirement
Brees - Almost definitely pushes him into retirement
Brady
Rivers
Ryan
Rodgers

RB
Henry - This one may be controversial, but he is on the back half of his prime and TEN apparently isn't that interested in signing him long term
RoJo/Vaughn - TB could definitely draft someone next offseason
Conner - PIT could draft someone next offseason
Drake - Less confident in this one, but he'll be older and maybe ARI drafts someone to complement him

WR
All the old guys - Julio/Thielen/MJones/Edelman/AJG

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Re: COVID Sells

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:19 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:05 pm
The crappy part is that every player "loses value" with a lost season, but I like this because it forces us to think who loses the most value.

Basically, it's the older guys and the guys with a weaker grip on their jobs that stand to lose the most value if the season is canceled. My list:

QB
Ben - Basically has 1-2 years left, so a lost season potentially pushes him into retirement
Brees - Almost definitely pushes him into retirement
Brady
Rivers
Ryan
Rodgers

RB
Henry - This one may be controversial, but he is on the back half of his prime and TEN apparently isn't that interested in signing him long term
RoJo/Vaughn - TB could definitely draft someone next offseason
Conner - PIT could draft someone next offseason
Drake - Less confident in this one, but he'll be older and maybe ARI drafts someone to complement him

WR
All the old guys - Julio/Thielen/MJones/Edelman/AJG
Throw in Aaron Jones to the RB section
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift,, CEH, Dobbins, Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Pollard, Cohen, Tevin Coleman
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 4 3rds, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rd, 3 4ths

Team 2

10 Team 2QB PPR
2020-21 Runner Up
QB: Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dalton
RB: CEH, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Tevin Coleman
WR: Diggs, ARob, Golladay, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault Kupp, Mooney, Gabriel Davis
TE: Fant, Trautman
D: Panthers
K: Blankenship
Picks
2021: 1.9, 2.4, 2.9, 3.9
2022: 1st, 2 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:57 pm

Who are guys who have their value bumped UP by the prospect of a lost season (if that does happen)?

Ones I can think of off the top of my head:

QB: Jordan Love, Tua
RB: AJ Dillon, JK Dobbins
WR: Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark (both teams could have Trevor Lawrence as their QB next time they come out)
TE: Irv Smith (Rudolph could be gone), TJ Hockenson (Lions only have one WR under contract for 2021--Quintez Cephus--but likely two after extending Golladay but still lose Jones and Amendola)
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift,, CEH, Dobbins, Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Pollard, Cohen, Tevin Coleman
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 4 3rds, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rd, 3 4ths

Team 2

10 Team 2QB PPR
2020-21 Runner Up
QB: Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dalton
RB: CEH, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Tevin Coleman
WR: Diggs, ARob, Golladay, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault Kupp, Mooney, Gabriel Davis
TE: Fant, Trautman
D: Panthers
K: Blankenship
Picks
2021: 1.9, 2.4, 2.9, 3.9
2022: 1st, 2 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:33 pm

I get the logic behind it, because it's better to take a hit as a 36-year-old QB, rather than as a 37-year-old QB, but I think a potential shortened season or year off helps. These players get to re-energize and come into next season fresher.

I can't imagine Green Bay cutting or trading Rodgers if there isn't a season. Love isn't ready to run a team.

Also, I think you have to wonder how the league will handle contracts if there isn't a season. Would they rollover contracts? What happens if the cap drops, since teams will be missing out on money?

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:39 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:33 pm
I get the logic behind it, because it's better to take a hit as a 36-year-old QB, rather than as a 37-year-old QB, but I think a potential shortened season or year off helps. These players get to re-energize and come into next season fresher.

I can't imagine Green Bay cutting or trading Rodgers if there isn't a season. Love isn't ready to run a team.

Also, I think you have to wonder how the league will handle contracts if there isn't a season. Would they rollover contracts? What happens if the cap drops, since teams will be missing out on money?
This last part is the reason I think he league will do everything possible to hit 10 games even if it means suspending until spring (if it comes to that). 10 games is the point I believe a year is accrued

As for Love Rodgers won't be traded after a shortened or suspended year but he may only have one year so as a Love owner you'd be missing out on one year of production instead of two before he starts in 2022.

Not sure though
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift,, CEH, Dobbins, Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Pollard, Cohen, Tevin Coleman
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 4 3rds, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rd, 3 4ths

Team 2

10 Team 2QB PPR
2020-21 Runner Up
QB: Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dalton
RB: CEH, James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Tevin Coleman
WR: Diggs, ARob, Golladay, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault Kupp, Mooney, Gabriel Davis
TE: Fant, Trautman
D: Panthers
K: Blankenship
Picks
2021: 1.9, 2.4, 2.9, 3.9
2022: 1st, 2 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby sugbear65 » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:50 pm

I really hope we have a season. Because I don’t view these guys as sell highs as much as buy lows. Everyone in my leagues with a veteran over 28 on their roster have been looking to sell, except for maybe one or two of the loaded squads. The fear of a lost season is high, and a lot of owners are selling proven vets for pennies on the dollar just to try and squeeze some kind of value out of them. May be a smart move if we don’t have a season, but I’m riding the other side of the fence. I’ve been buying guys on the cheap all offseason, so if we do have a fantasy year, I’ve upgraded my team at a fraction of the cost it would take most years. A gamble either way I think. Though a contrarian view I have is that if there is no NFL, then there will probably be no college either. So just how valuable will rookie picks be in the offseason? Could be a deflated draft.
So I guess what I’m saying is I don’t view the players listed as Covid sell highs, more as buys. Honestly, rookies this year are probably the best sell highs, after a truncated preseason. Sell the big names now and buy back cheaper when they falter out of the gate.

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:12 pm

Like Sugbear, I'm totally down with buying vets when it seems they're value is pushed low because of these Covid fears.

This title reminded me of an article I read a few days ago- https://www.fantraxhq.com/fantasy-footb ... -concerns/
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League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

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Re: COVID Sell-Highs

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:41 pm

Drake is a solid one.

I low-key think Pittsburgh extends Conner for cheap. Since he's been drafted we've been hearing that the Steelers are going to replace him, and I just don't see it.
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