“Trend” for QBs taken #1

[StripesOfKC]

If they really were the most talented team in the PAC12 wouldn’t this talent be expressed in the draft?

Highschool recruit rankings != talent.

Not necessarily. Plenty of players have skillsets better designed for the college game than the NFL

Unfortunately for Herbert his skillset is designed for neither

I have no issue eating my words if I'm wrong but I don't see it

[Blueboy]

On the topic of the thread's title, even as a fan of Mayfield one had to acknowledge that his success would have to come in spite of some significant limitations, rather than because of supreme athleticism or arm talent. Murray has both of those in spades, and he also made progress in his rookie year that totally sold me on his developmental trajectory. It didn't necessarily show up in the ways that fantasy appreciates, but I'd wager next season it does.

I've also come around on Kingsbury after having initially been scared of the signing. IMO it's as close to a perfect situation as Murray could have without being paired with a Reid/Shanahan.

[Sriracha]

On the topic of the thread's title, even as a fan of Mayfield one had to acknowledge that his success would have to come in spite of some significant limitations, rather than because of supreme athleticism or arm talent. Murray has both of those in spades, and he also made progress in his rookie year that totally sold me on his developmental trajectory. It didn't necessarily show up in the ways that fantasy appreciates, but I'd wager next season it does.

I've also come around on Kingsbury after having initially been scared of the signing. IMO it's as close to a perfect situation as Murray could have without being paired with a Reid/Shanahan.

I like Mayfield's arm talent quite a bit, personally. Saw an interesting video that highlighted why Mayfield struggled so much last season and the crux of the matter came down to his height forcing himself to drop back further in the pocket than normal. This adds a lot more stress to the O-line who's Tackles are more likely to be beat off the edge unless there's a pocket to step up into after he's identified the open receiver (which adds more pressure to the interior lineman). So Mayfield really needs a quality O-line to protect him if he's going to be successful. He's not Russel Wilson who is incredibly elusive in the pocket to make up for his "short" stature. It looks like CLE realized the same thing and made heavy investments into the O-line this off-season.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see Kyler having a Baker like 2nd year. I also don't see a Mahomes/Lamar like 2nd year. Kyler has the mobility to get away from a bad OL, and Baker did not have that. It's not ideal, and I think the Cards made a mistake passing on a top end LT for Simmons. I think they should have locked in a top tier OL. They only spent a 3rd on a Tackle, and I believe they lost their starting Centre. The Line was a major issue last year, and will be this year, too. I worry about Kyler getting smacked around a lot in year 2 again, and getting a little antsy. Having a poor OL for years early on may lead him to some bad habits, but I think the Browns were a lot more dysfunctional last year than the Cards will be. I think Kyler will show mild improvement in year 2.

[Blueboy]

On the topic of the thread's title, even as a fan of Mayfield one had to acknowledge that his success would have to come in spite of some significant limitations, rather than because of supreme athleticism or arm talent. Murray has both of those in spades, and he also made progress in his rookie year that totally sold me on his developmental trajectory. It didn't necessarily show up in the ways that fantasy appreciates, but I'd wager next season it does.

I've also come around on Kingsbury after having initially been scared of the signing. IMO it's as close to a perfect situation as Murray could have without being paired with a Reid/Shanahan.

I like Mayfield's arm talent quite a bit, personally. Saw an interesting video that highlighted why Mayfield struggled so much last season and the crux of the matter came down to his height forcing himself to drop back further in the pocket than normal. This adds a lot more stress to the O-line who's Tackles are more likely to be beat off the edge unless there's a pocket to step up into after he's identified the open receiver (which adds more pressure to the interior lineman). So Mayfield really needs a quality O-line to protect him if he's going to be successful. He's not Russel Wilson who is incredibly elusive in the pocket to make up for his "short" stature. It looks like CLE realized the same thing and made heavy investments into the O-line this off-season.

I'm aware of the issue you're referring to with Mayfield. Other QBs of that height (this includes Kyler) avoid that fatal error by not having sloppy footwork. Mayfield's really regressed in Year 2; that's the only part of his "development" that I'm worried about. Wilson, who you mentioned, has great footwork in addition to elite mobility.

I don't hate Mayfield's arm by any means. It's certainly enough to be a starter in the NFL, plenty of other guys have managed to put up incredible numbers with worse arm talent. It just isn't incredible, it's not something he can fall back on if/when other parts of his game fail.

[Bronco Billy]

Mayfield’s lack of success last year had a lot more to do with the coaching than it did with Mayfield himself. Kitchen’s offensive design through the first 2/3rds of the year was focused on straight drops and a static pocket. That doesn’t help Mayfield or the O line. It’s harder to find throwing lanes and it takes away from one of Mayfield’s strengths, which is accuracy while rolling - which he used to establish his rookie year success as well as his phenomenal accuracy numbers in college. Kitchen finally went to a lot more play action later in the year with more success.

The way CLE can run the ball, there is no reason not to utilize play action to help freeze the D temporarily. There is also no reason why they shouldn’t be using a rolling pocket to help their O line and to create more and wider passing lanes and to play into Mayfield’s strengths. That Kitchen didn’t recognize these pretty simple basics shows how far over his head he was last year.

The footwork thing with Mayfield has been way overblown. The change in footwork that Stepanski has installed was simply switching which foot he had forward pre-snap, which allows a QB to make snap throws without taking a full step to get in proper alignment. That seems like pretty basic stuff too, but at the NFL level it can be a big deal.

Stepanski improved Cousins’ performance substantially by utilizing play action in coordination with MIN’s strong running game. We’re going to see a lot (relatively) of play action from CLE under Stepanski and if they’ll dedicate some of their playbook to rolling the pocket Mayfield could see a significant upgrade in his numbers - especially given the talent he has to throw to. I’m looking for a step up from his rookie year performance, and hopefully we can put his 2019 season into the trash heap as a remembrance of a coach who just was not ready for the bigs and was unwilling to adjust to utilize his QB’s strengths.

[Pac_Eddy]

Stepanski improved Cousins’ performance substantially by utilizing play action in coordination with MIN’s strong running game. We’re going to see a lot (relatively) of play action from CLE under Stepanski and if they’ll dedicate some of their playbook to rolling the pocket Mayfield could see a significant upgrade in his numbers - especially given the talent he has to throw to. I’m looking for a step up from his rookie year performance, and hopefully we can put his 2019 season into the trash heap as a remembrance of a coach who just was not ready for the bigs and was unwilling to adjust to utilize his QB’s strengths.

I like this take. I agree that what Stefanski & Kubiak did last year greatly helped Cousins. I'd think Stefanski would use a similar system for Mayfield.

[Bronco Billy]

A little off topic, but does apply a bit to the OP:

If you want to make what I think is a good dynasty gamble, go pick up and roster former 1.01 Jameis Winston. As rough a year as he had last year, he was the 2nd most accurate QB in the league when running play action, and his completion percentage was way higher running play action than non-play action. And guess which coach is a huge advocate and user of play action in his offense: Yep, Sean Payton.

NO may be able to survive Brees’ retirement in the very near future without missing a beat as Winston gets to sit, watch, learn, (and hopefully grow up) from some very strong offensive minds and then sign for starting QB money to take the reins for the Saints in an offense that also plays to his strengths and limits his throwing 50/50 balls all over the field. That would save NO burning what is likely a late first round pick trying to turn the 4th to 6th QB off the board into their next starter.

He’s pretty cheap to acquire right now and could be well worth the roll of the dice to roster for a year while waiting.

[mild]

If you want to make what I think is a good dynasty gamble, go pick up and roster former 1.01 Jameis Winston. As rough a year as he had last year, he was the 2nd most accurate QB in the league when running play action, and his completion percentage was way higher running play action than non-play action. And guess which coach is a huge advocate and user of play action in his offense: Yep, Sean Payton.

A fun stat I heard on a podcast last night. Guess which QB led the league in dropped interceptions in 2019?

That's right. His adjusted interceptions number was actually 40... he had 10 dropped.

[FantasyFreak]

If you want to make what I think is a good dynasty gamble, go pick up and roster former 1.01 Jameis Winston. As rough a year as he had last year, he was the 2nd most accurate QB in the league when running play action, and his completion percentage was way higher running play action than non-play action. And guess which coach is a huge advocate and user of play action in his offense: Yep, Sean Payton.

A fun stat I heard on a podcast last night. Guess which QB led the league in dropped interceptions in 2019?

That's right. His adjusted interceptions number was actually 40... he had 10 dropped.

Winston sucks. For Fantasy he was great. For an NFL team, he's not going to get it done for you. I'd be very surprised if he had a career resurgence where he was a long time starter again. He's been a turnover machine since he entered the league and he's a questionable character on top of that.

[Sriracha]

If you want to make what I think is a good dynasty gamble, go pick up and roster former 1.01 Jameis Winston. As rough a year as he had last year, he was the 2nd most accurate QB in the league when running play action, and his completion percentage was way higher running play action than non-play action. And guess which coach is a huge advocate and user of play action in his offense: Yep, Sean Payton.

A fun stat I heard on a podcast last night. Guess which QB led the league in dropped interceptions in 2019?

That's right. His adjusted interceptions number was actually 40... he had 10 dropped.

I don't think Jameis will be a starting QB in the future, but I could see him having a Ryan Fitzpatrick career arch as a productive Journeyman QB.

[Bronco Billy]

Well, it sure wouldn’t be the first time I’m wrong. But giving up on a 26 yr old who despite his troubles has still managed to throw for a career average of almost 275 ypg and despite the INTs still posted a 8.2 ypa last year when you can acquire him for peanuts doesn’t seem right. Being able to sit for a year and learn from minds like Brees and Payton could just be the cure for some of his issues, and if it is, he’s got the tools to still put up a hell of a career.

Just seems worth the low risk to me.

[FantasyFreak]

Well, it sure wouldn’t be the first time I’m wrong. But giving up on a 26 yr old who despite his troubles has still managed to throw for a career average of almost 275 ypg and despite the INTs still posted a 8.2 ypa last year when you can acquire him for peanuts doesn’t seem right. Being able to sit for a year and learn from minds like Brees and Payton could just be the cure for some of his issues, and if it is, he’s got the tools to still put up a hell of a career.

Just seems worth the low risk to me.

This isn't going to be the difference maker. You can sit next to Einstein in class for a year, but you aren't coming up with the theory of relativity. It's not like Jameis doesn't understand the plays, he's just a bonehead on the field. People were saying the same thing about Arians fixing him. He's worth the price for a dart throw, but that's all he is at this point. The only consistent thing about him his 5 years in the league, is his poor decision making. His stats for Fantasy are great, but his passer rating was still below 85 last year. He isn't a good real life QB, and I'd be shocked if that changed.

[moishetreats]

Well, it sure wouldn’t be the first time I’m wrong. But giving up on a 26 yr old who despite his troubles has still managed to throw for a career average of almost 275 ypg and despite the INTs still posted a 8.2 ypa last year when you can acquire him for peanuts doesn’t seem right. Being able to sit for a year and learn from minds like Brees and Payton could just be the cure for some of his issues, and if it is, he’s got the tools to still put up a hell of a career.

Just seems worth the low risk to me.

This isn't going to be the difference maker. You can sit next to Einstein in class for a year, but you aren't coming up with the theory of relativity. It's not like Jameis doesn't understand the plays, he's just a bonehead on the field. People were saying the same thing about Arians fixing him. He's worth the price for a dart throw, but that's all he is at this point. The only consistent thing about him his 5 years in the league, is his poor decision making. His stats for Fantasy are great, but his passer rating was still below 85 last year. He isn't a good real life QB, and I'd be shocked if that changed.

I wouldn't be so dismissive about having the right coach*. Brett Favre (no, I'm NOT putting Winston in his tier or class!) made far more boneheaded plays in the years before Mike McCarthy arrived. Was he productive? Undoubtedly (heck, he already had won a Superbowl and was a three-time MVP!). But overly careless? Absolutely.

He never fully got rid of that carelessness; it famously dogged in playoff games with the Packers against the Giants and with the Vikings against the Saints. But, McCarthy helped him reign in his carelessness tremendously. Having the right coach was a huge boost to Favre's play. And let's not forget that, early in his career, Favre was a hard-core party guy off the field until he went to rehab.

I'm not willing to bet all my fantasy football career winnings against all of yours that Winston will have the same career arc as Favre. But I wouldn't be shocked if, with the right coach in place, Winston can at least curtail his on-the-field (and maybe even off-the-field) boneheadedness and still have a productive career. It's not as far-fetched as you seem to suggest, IMO.


*And Arians wasn't right coach to fix Winston's carelessness. He WAS the right coach for fantasy football stats (he loves to air it out) but not for curtailing reckless play.

[Jigga94]

Well, it sure wouldn’t be the first time I’m wrong. But giving up on a 26 yr old who despite his troubles has still managed to throw for a career average of almost 275 ypg and despite the INTs still posted a 8.2 ypa last year when you can acquire him for peanuts doesn’t seem right. Being able to sit for a year and learn from minds like Brees and Payton could just be the cure for some of his issues, and if it is, he’s got the tools to still put up a hell of a career.

Just seems worth the low risk to me.

This isn't going to be the difference maker. You can sit next to Einstein in class for a year, but you aren't coming up with the theory of relativity. It's not like Jameis doesn't understand the plays, he's just a bonehead on the field. People were saying the same thing about Arians fixing him. He's worth the price for a dart throw, but that's all he is at this point. The only consistent thing about him his 5 years in the league, is his poor decision making. His stats for Fantasy are great, but his passer rating was still below 85 last year. He isn't a good real life QB, and I'd be shocked if that changed.

I'm buying because the Lasik.

Kidding, of course