“Trend” for QBs taken #1

[OhCruelestRanter]

It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role

We get it, man. You’re a Chiefs fan. Every post doesn’t have to just be you cheering for your team. This isn’t PFT.

Is calling the Chargers incompetent something that must be my homerism as a Chiefs fan?

Way more people laughed at the Giants for taking Jones (I did not--I could forgive his shortcomings easier considering the garbage Duke talent he played with). Were they Cowboys/Eagles fans "cheering for their team"?

I have stated specifically how the Broncos are a real threat in the AFC West and the Raiders could be as well in the near future

My evaluation of Herbert has always been that he will get a front office and coaching staff fired well before I knew the Chargers were taking him--just a happy coincidence that he went to a divisional team

It was more a combination of this thread, turning the Mostert thread into a defense of Andy Reid: Visionary, and defending Mahomes contract as a future steal. Maybe that’s all a coincidence, you wouldn’t be the first guy to be low on Herbert.

In any case, I think Herbert is an interesting prospect. He has good functional mobility and he’s intelligent. He checks every minimum physical box and every production box, but he doesn’t have a single skill that stands out as elite. I think his absolute upside is a Carson Wentz type career, with a median-ish projection of a Ryan Tannehill up-and-down career, and a Blaine Gabbert-style flameout as a floor.

[DLF3000]

Actually, Baker wasn't always the first QB off the board in rookie drafts that year (he was the last of the big 4 or whatever it was in my league because... Browns). He was a bit surprising and/or polarizing as the #1 overall NFL draft pick.

That said, Baker bounces back this year - how can he not? If he doesn't... I'm done drafting Browns. Forever.

Kyler takes a step forward like most in year 2 (rather than cratering like Mayfield did), especially with Hopkins around.

Burrow, I like, but similar to the Browns, I consider the Bengals a terrible organization. Certainly not as terrible, but close enough where I doubt he has early success. Hope he does, but man, hope and historically bad organizations is too often an oxymoron.

[StripesOfKC]

We get it, man. You’re a Chiefs fan. Every post doesn’t have to just be you cheering for your team. This isn’t PFT.

Is calling the Chargers incompetent something that must be my homerism as a Chiefs fan?

Way more people laughed at the Giants for taking Jones (I did not--I could forgive his shortcomings easier considering the garbage Duke talent he played with). Were they Cowboys/Eagles fans "cheering for their team"?

I have stated specifically how the Broncos are a real threat in the AFC West and the Raiders could be as well in the near future

My evaluation of Herbert has always been that he will get a front office and coaching staff fired well before I knew the Chargers were taking him--just a happy coincidence that he went to a divisional team

It was more a combination of this thread, turning the Mostert thread into a defense of Andy Reid: Visionary, and defending Mahomes contract as a future steal. Maybe that’s all a coincidence, you wouldn’t be the first guy to be low on Herbert.

In any case, I think Herbert is an interesting prospect. He has good functional mobility and he’s intelligent. He checks every minimum physical box and every production box, but he doesn’t have a single skill that stands out as elite. I think his absolute upside is a Carson Wentz type career, with a median-ish projection of a Ryan Tannehill up-and-down career, and a Blaine Gabbert-style flameout as a floor.

The Reid part also included me defending Kyle Shanahan, and the Mahomes contract...well I certainly have bias but considering the thread was about the contract I thought commentary on it would be alright

As for Herbert: he certainly doesn't check the production boxes for me. I can see right through that completion percentage number having watched Oregon games and the 50 3-yard crosses and bubble screens they throw covering up his awful accuracy on real passes

Guy cannot go through reads--part of it is the Oregon system but he has a tendency to take off running any time his first read isn't there (and because of his sub par pocket presence) in the same way Colin Kaepernick did (but without the same skill as a runner) and Mitch Trubisky does

Like those guys he also is only capable of throwing bullet passes with no touch

Ultimately despite having the best talent in the conference by a wide margin he won the PAC 12 once

While Tua and Burrow were shredding the Georgias, Floridas and Auburns of the world, this scrub was getting ragdolled by 5-7 Arizona and their 3 star athletes

I can give Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love a pass considering the 2 and 3 star talent they played with--not Herbert with the best recruiting classes in the PAC 12

He flat out sucks IMO

[Sriracha]

Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word

Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.

It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role

I'm certainly not disagreeing that Herbert left a lot to be desired in his college career, just with the idea that his ceiling is capped by it. Most of his faults seem correctable, which is what I heard about Lamar Jackson's throwing mechanics but not Josh Allen. Not all mechanical issues are equivalent. I'm certainly not going to go out on a limb and proclaim he's going to hit in the NFL, but QBs are especially hard to project.

I'm also interested in how such a talented Oregon team full of blue chip prospects wasn't able to put any of that talent in the NFL? Do NFL draft evaluator just hate Oregon players? The only skill players drafted in the 4 years Herbert was playing: WR Dillon Mitchell (7th), RB Royce Freeman (3rd) I'm surprised Herbert wasn't carried to the national championship with all of that talent .

[StripesOfKC]

Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.

It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role

I'm certainly not disagreeing that Herbert left a lot to be desired in his college career, just with the idea that his ceiling is capped by it. Most of his faults seem correctable, which is what I heard about Lamar Jackson's throwing mechanics but not Josh Allen. Not all mechanical issues are equivalent. I'm certainly not going to go out on a limb and proclaim he's going to hit in the NFL, but QBs are especially hard to project.

I'm also interested in how such a talented Oregon team full of blue chip prospects wasn't able to put any of that talent in the NFL? Do NFL draft evaluator just hate Oregon players? The only skill players drafted in the 4 years Herbert was playing: WR Dillon Mitchell (7th), RB Royce Freeman (3rd) I'm surprised Herbert wasn't carried to the national championship with all of that talent .

They had an incredible OL, including a player who may very well knock off Trevor Lawrence for the one spot next year and is a top 5 lock

I never said he had Tua and Burrow's supporting casts but can you not see how Oregon has far superior recruiting classes and athletes to other Pac 12 teams? No other team except a currently dormant USC even finishes top 25 in recruiting rankings regularly

His supporting cast is less talented than Tua and Burrow's but relative to competition? I would say it's stronger if anything.

I am not saying he should have won a national championship but it is pretty pathetic that he won the PAC 12 once while on one of the only 2 teams that can pull in 5 stars and stacks up 4 stars

[Sriracha]

Oregon has talent, for sure... but it's not like they're head and shoulders above the other pac 12 teams. USC, Utah, WSH, UCLA, Stanford are no slouches in recruiting.

All the talent in the world doesn't matter if they're trapped in a system that doesn't develop their talents. Which is another reason that Herbert's stock went up after he shined in the predraft process and the Senior Bowl once he got away from Oregon's system.

QB is by far the most important position in the NFL. but the same is not true in NCAAF where overall talent and coaching are far more important than the QB position.

[StripesOfKC]

Oregon has talent, for sure... but it's not like they're head and shoulders above the other pac 12 teams. USC, Utah, WSH, UCLA, Stanford are no slouches in recruiting.

All the talent in the world doesn't matter if they're trapped in a system that doesn't develop their talents. Which is another reason that Herbert's stock went up after he shined in the predraft process and the Senior Bowl once he got away from Oregon's system.

QB is by far the most important position in the NFL. but the same is not true in NCAAF where overall talent and coaching are far more important than the QB position.

Only USC of those teams is in Oregon's realm in recruiting the past few years

They are so far above other PAC 12 teams...not quite as much as Clemson vs the rest of the ACC but a bigger gap than any other conference

Utah doesn't even crack the top 40 most years

His stock went up because coaches have a lot of ego and think they can develop a big armed athlete who can't play football well into a star QB
Same reason Hackenburg was a 2nd round pick

[mild]

Figured I'd wade in on the Herbert fun. Say what you like about Brett Kollman and his analysis videos, but I have to say, this one entitled "Justin Herbert is Mitch Trubiskey cranked up to 11" gave me good lols whilst scaring me off him permanently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA5g4v9hjMQ

To speak to the "Lamar had mechanical issues too" comment... I think one thing Lamar was showing, even at college, was an improvement in the understanding of his reads - and a willingness to go through them. I remember the moment when I was watching one of his pre-draft interviews, and the interviewer asked him for his reads based on a defense, and Lamar didn't skip a beat.

Perhaps Herbert understands the theory of his progressions too - but he sure doesn't go through them when the game is in flow. If you can't read a field at the CFB level OR do something athletically game-breaking to beat scheme... then I am truly scared for your chances at the Pro level.

[FantasyFreak]

Figured I'd wade in on the Herbert fun. Say what you like about Brett Kollman and his analysis videos, but I have to say, this one entitled "Justin Herbert is Mitch Trubiskey cranked up to 11" gave me good lols whilst scaring me off him permanently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA5g4v9hjMQ

To speak to the "Lamar had mechanical issues too" comment... I think one thing Lamar was showing, even at college, was an improvement in the understanding of his reads - and a willingness to go through them. I remember the moment when I was watching one of his pre-draft interviews, and the interviewer asked him for his reads based on a defense, and Lamar didn't skip a beat.

Perhaps Herbert understands the theory of his progressions too - but he sure doesn't go through them when the game is in flow. If you can't read a field at the CFB level OR do something athletically game-breaking to beat scheme... then I am truly scared for your chances at the Pro level.

Brett certainly isn't the only guy who has some of these observations about Herbert. A few others have as well. Joel Klatt didn't even like him going in the first round, even though he knew he would.

This guy calls him a bust, and shows some of the same problems I saw with him. My biggest concern with Herbert is he is still very close to the same player he was a few years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qj_TIx1FuA

[Cameron Giles]

Hard to say. I don't think any of us saw Baker imploding last season as a probable thing. Murray on paper, doesn't seem likely to implode either, but who knows. I'm buying Kyler, but there's always a young, low ADP QB who overachieves each year in redraft:

2017 - Wentz
2018 - Mahomes
2019 - Lamar
2020 - ???

[ericanadian]

Oregon has talent, for sure... but it's not like they're head and shoulders above the other pac 12 teams. USC, Utah, WSH, UCLA, Stanford are no slouches in recruiting.

All the talent in the world doesn't matter if they're trapped in a system that doesn't develop their talents. Which is another reason that Herbert's stock went up after he shined in the predraft process and the Senior Bowl once he got away from Oregon's system.

QB is by far the most important position in the NFL. but the same is not true in NCAAF where overall talent and coaching are far more important than the QB position.

Only USC of those teams is in Oregon's realm in recruiting the past few years

They are so far above other PAC 12 teams...not quite as much as Clemson vs the rest of the ACC but a bigger gap than any other conference

Utah doesn't even crack the top 40 most years

His stock went up because coaches have a lot of ego and think they can develop a big armed athlete who can't play football well into a star QB
Same reason Hackenburg was a 2nd round pick

Maybe Oregon just sucks at player development. For all that recruiting prowess, they only have a 3rd, 2 4ths, 3 5ths, a 6th and 2 7ths over the last four years.

Meanwhile, that Utah team you were pooh poohing had a 2nd, 3 3rds, a 4th, a 5th and a 6th just in 2020.

Washington has had 3 1sts, 7 2nds, 3 4ths, 3 5ths, 3 6ths and a 7th over that four year period.

Stanford, UCLA & USC had a clear draft advantage as well.

Even Colorado and Arizona St have an argument.

[StripesOfKC]

Oregon has talent, for sure... but it's not like they're head and shoulders above the other pac 12 teams. USC, Utah, WSH, UCLA, Stanford are no slouches in recruiting.

All the talent in the world doesn't matter if they're trapped in a system that doesn't develop their talents. Which is another reason that Herbert's stock went up after he shined in the predraft process and the Senior Bowl once he got away from Oregon's system.

QB is by far the most important position in the NFL. but the same is not true in NCAAF where overall talent and coaching are far more important than the QB position.

Only USC of those teams is in Oregon's realm in recruiting the past few years

They are so far above other PAC 12 teams...not quite as much as Clemson vs the rest of the ACC but a bigger gap than any other conference

Utah doesn't even crack the top 40 most years

His stock went up because coaches have a lot of ego and think they can develop a big armed athlete who can't play football well into a star QB
Same reason Hackenburg was a 2nd round pick

Maybe Oregon just sucks at player development. For all that recruiting prowess, they only have a 3rd, 2 4ths, 3 5ths, a 6th and 2 7ths over the last four years.

Meanwhile, that Utah team you were pooh poohing had a 2nd, 3 3rds, a 4th, a 5th and a 6th just in 2020.

Washington has had 3 1sts, 7 2nds, 3 4ths, 3 5ths, 3 6ths and a 7th over that four year period.

Stanford, UCLA & USC had a clear draft advantage as well.

Even Colorado and Arizona St have an argument.

I am not on Oregon fan. In fact I badly wanted Utah to beat them in the Pac 12 Championship

But I can acknowledge that they are far, far more talented than the rest of the conference now that Washington/Stanford have taken a dive and USC is (still) not back

Herbert took all that superior talent in an overpowered conference all the way to one conference title, one beatdown at the hands of 5-7 Arizona and one bowl game where he put up a whopping 7 points against a 7-6 team

Maybe Oregon's WRs will do better now that they might have a real QB throwing to them

[Sriracha]

Oregon has talent, for sure... but it's not like they're head and shoulders above the other pac 12 teams. USC, Utah, WSH, UCLA, Stanford are no slouches in recruiting.

All the talent in the world doesn't matter if they're trapped in a system that doesn't develop their talents. Which is another reason that Herbert's stock went up after he shined in the predraft process and the Senior Bowl once he got away from Oregon's system.

QB is by far the most important position in the NFL. but the same is not true in NCAAF where overall talent and coaching are far more important than the QB position.

Only USC of those teams is in Oregon's realm in recruiting the past few years

They are so far above other PAC 12 teams...not quite as much as Clemson vs the rest of the ACC but a bigger gap than any other conference

Utah doesn't even crack the top 40 most years

His stock went up because coaches have a lot of ego and think they can develop a big armed athlete who can't play football well into a star QB
Same reason Hackenburg was a 2nd round pick

Maybe Oregon just sucks at player development. For all that recruiting prowess, they only have a 3rd, 2 4ths, 3 5ths, a 6th and 2 7ths over the last four years.

Meanwhile, that Utah team you were pooh poohing had a 2nd, 3 3rds, a 4th, a 5th and a 6th just in 2020.

Washington has had 3 1sts, 7 2nds, 3 4ths, 3 5ths, 3 6ths and a 7th over that four year period.

Stanford, UCLA & USC had a clear draft advantage as well.

Even Colorado and Arizona St have an argument.

The big issue is that highschool recruiting ranks are highly variable from source to source. Oregon usually finishes at the top of the Pac 12, but depending on the site you use they're head and shoulders above other teams or simply mildly ahead. They're definitely not getting the same kind of talent the juggernauts are taking in...

And I really feel like trying to use QB wins as a stat in college football especially is misguided. When teams are continually in title hunts with John David Bootie, Jake Fromm, Jake Coker, Blake Sims, Cardale Jones (who was 3rd on the depth chart to start the year) of the world.. I don't understand why anyone would try to use it as an argument for QB talent level. CFB talent is so unevenly distributed it's easy to make up for a poor QB if the defense is stacked and your O-line can open up massive running lanes for your RBs.

[StripesOfKC]

Only USC of those teams is in Oregon's realm in recruiting the past few years

They are so far above other PAC 12 teams...not quite as much as Clemson vs the rest of the ACC but a bigger gap than any other conference

Utah doesn't even crack the top 40 most years

His stock went up because coaches have a lot of ego and think they can develop a big armed athlete who can't play football well into a star QB
Same reason Hackenburg was a 2nd round pick

Maybe Oregon just sucks at player development. For all that recruiting prowess, they only have a 3rd, 2 4ths, 3 5ths, a 6th and 2 7ths over the last four years.

Meanwhile, that Utah team you were pooh poohing had a 2nd, 3 3rds, a 4th, a 5th and a 6th just in 2020.

Washington has had 3 1sts, 7 2nds, 3 4ths, 3 5ths, 3 6ths and a 7th over that four year period.

Stanford, UCLA & USC had a clear draft advantage as well.

Even Colorado and Arizona St have an argument.

The big issue is that highschool recruiting ranks are highly variable from source to source. Oregon usually finishes at the top of the Pac 12, but depending on the site you use they're head and shoulders above other teams or simply mildly ahead. They're definitely not getting the same kind of talent the juggernauts are taking in...

And I really feel like trying to use QB wins as a stat in college football especially is misguided. When teams are continually in title hunts with John David Bootie, Jake Fromm, Jake Coker, Blake Sims, Cardale Jones (who was 3rd on the depth chart to start the year) of the world.. I don't understand why anyone would try to use it as an argument for QB talent level. CFB talent is so unevenly distributed it's easy to make up for a poor QB if the defense is stacked and your O-line can open up massive running lanes for your RBs.

And they aren't playing juggernauts like Burrow and Tua are. They're playing softa** PAC 12 teams in a glorified G5 conference

You can see what happens when Herbert plays the closest thing he played to a juggernaut in Auburn (about equal talent level to Oregon) and he looks like a scared puppy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGpDpx6KI6Y

And I agree winning doesn't make a QB in CFB (or NFL) good or losing bad

But when a QB with the most talented roster in the PAC 12 wins the conference once, gets smacked by Arizona and puts up 7 in the RedBox bowl against a 7-6 (also less talented) team--I think it's more than fair to dock them

If Herbert was playing for Oregon State I wouldn't be so hard on him like I was not for Jones/Allen and am not for Love

[Sriracha]

If they really were the most talented team in the PAC12 wouldn’t this talent be expressed in the draft?

Highschool recruit rankings != talent.