“Trend” for QBs taken #1

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JoshGordonsDealer
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“Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:24 am

Both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were the first QB taken in the NFL draft and generally the first rookie QB taken in dynasty drafts.

Owners saw almost immediate dividends as Baker was ranked the ADP QB3 in June 2019 and Kyler the QB3 in June 2020. This is according to the Mizelle ADP.

Of course, we all watched Baker implode in season 2.

So my questions are:

1. Do we see Kyler having a similar slump to Baker? On one hand, an offseason of studying tape will help defenses, but the addition of Nuk (not unlike Baker getting OBJ) and coaching continuity (quite unlike Baker getting Kitchens) work in his favor.

2. Do we see Burrow‘s ADP skyrocketing much like his fellow #1 QBs? I personally think Burrow has more talent around him than either Baker or Kyler did in year one, however, the wacky offseason and a possibly shaky offensive line work against him.

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby TheNuts » Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:41 am

I am not banking on it, but it's possible. I think that both QBs have an attitude that can be flat out arrogant. Both guys are extremely talented which should allow them to overcome any slumps.

I also think that Kingsbury is a horrendous coach. He is not going to be great for Kyler imo.
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Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
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Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby Mjvb5 » Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:10 am

this is very typical for most qbs going into there second years in the league. Essentially as long as they dont crap the sheets in year one qbs will see a drastic spike in there adp going into year 2. Inevetibally for most qbs this is there peak and then they eventually settle in the 8-20 rang for there career.

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby UnsafeAtAnySpd » Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 am

If we're just basing this off of the last few years, the real bump is for the "that QB sucks, *NFL team* drafted him too early" guys. Josh Allen, Daniel Jones... Justin Herbert?

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby Plank » Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:10 am

I don't think we'll see much drop off for Murray .. What they are running in Arizona is all very quick read kind of stuff, not sure what his avg delivery is, but he doesn't hold onto the ball at all .. There isn't much room for that gunslinger type and off platform kind of plays where we see sophomore QB's struggle, ie, shutting down tendencies ...

The threat of Murray running should really always keep defenses from tight press on WR's .. so I feel he'll always be able to get the ball away pretty quickly ..

It will be interesting to see if a guy like Nuk really helps or detracts .. like, does Murray hold onto the ball just a little longer hoping Nuk can get open? Instead of just zipping through his reads? I'm not totally convinced they are a good match, but guess the season will let us know ...
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby moishetreats » Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:15 am

JoshGordonsDealer wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:24 am
1. Do we see Kyler having a similar slump to Baker? On one hand, an offseason of studying tape will help defenses, but the addition of Nuk (not unlike Baker getting OBJ) and coaching continuity (quite unlike Baker getting Kitchens) work in his favor.
Actually, Baker bucks the recent trend: Wentz, Mahomes, and Jackson all exploded in the second years (and even J Allen had a great second year).

So, yes, the value spike is expected for QBs who have a strong rookie showing: Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Jones, J. Allen, Prescott, R. Wilson, etc. Obviously, Mahomes, Jackson, and J. Allen have seen their value continue to jump after successful follow-up campaigns; Baker and Wentz saw their values dip.

Put all that together, and the spike is expected but I think that recent history suggests that Murray is more likely to have a strong second season than bomb out.

As for Burrow, he would likely follow that trend, as well: if he has a good rookie season, then he'll have a huge spike in value in the off-season.
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QB: Wilson, Wentz, Rodgers, Love
RB: Mixon, Gurley, Montgomery, Dillon, Moss, Armstead
WR: Hill, Cooper, Lockett, Hilton, Anderson, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Sims, Ward, Renfrow
TE: Kelce, Goedert, Jarwin, Sternberger, K Smith, Arnold, L Thomas

2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 4thx2, 5th
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:21 am

The biggest thing that stands out to me is Kyler can throw on a dime and he has wheels- certainly a combo that we haven’t seen with such high draft capital. With the rushing ability, it raises his floor considerably
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QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts, Winston
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Higgins, S Miller, Proche
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Arnold, Trautman
K: Tucker
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WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, G. Tate, Guyton, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS), S. Miller (TS), Higgins (TS)
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:32 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:21 am
The biggest thing that stands out to me is Kyler can throw on a dime and he has wheels- certainly a combo that we haven’t seen with such high draft capital. With the rushing ability, it raises his floor considerably
Agreed with this. I see a higher upside and floor with Kyler than with Mayfield.

I think Burrow has a chance to have a similar value to Kyler's.
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:13 pm

UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 am
If we're just basing this off of the last few years, the real bump is for the "that QB sucks, *NFL team* drafted him too early" guys. Josh Allen, Daniel Jones... Justin Herbert?
Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Eason
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell, Mooney, Collin Johnson, Marquez Callaway
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Random Dude

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby killer_of_giants » Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:26 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:13 pm
UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 am
If we're just basing this off of the last few years, the real bump is for the "that QB sucks, *NFL team* drafted him too early" guys. Josh Allen, Daniel Jones... Justin Herbert?
Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word
did you meet him behind a cheesecake factory? :shock:

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:47 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:13 pm
UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 am
If we're just basing this off of the last few years, the real bump is for the "that QB sucks, *NFL team* drafted him too early" guys. Josh Allen, Daniel Jones... Justin Herbert?
Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word
Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:21 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:47 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:13 pm
UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:38 am
If we're just basing this off of the last few years, the real bump is for the "that QB sucks, *NFL team* drafted him too early" guys. Josh Allen, Daniel Jones... Justin Herbert?
Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word
Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.
It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role

As for hubris, I don't present myself to be some expert scout for QBs, but the only time I have felt this confident about a bust was Christian Hackenburg

Besides him Herbert is through and through the worst 1st round QB prospect I have seen and worse than a bunch of 2nd/3rd round prospects as well

With how stacked the 2021 class looks (and how bad the Chargers team looks) I give him a solid chance of pulling a Rosen--except his team still has more talent than the 2018 Cardinals so he doesn't even have that excuse
Last edited by StripesOfKC on Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Eason
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell, Mooney, Collin Johnson, Marquez Callaway
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Random Dude

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:28 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:21 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:47 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:13 pm


Justin Herbert actually sucks though in every sense of the word
Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.
It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role
We get it, man. You’re a Chiefs fan. Every post doesn’t have to just be you cheering for your team. This isn’t PFT.
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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:32 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:28 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:21 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:47 pm


Most QBs coming from CFB need to drastically improve to become NFL ready. Saying Herbert sucks now really doesn't mean much.. the question is where do you think he will end up, and we just don't have enough info at the moment to make definitive claims like this. A lot of people want to right off Herbert based on his lack of improvements in college.. but we really don't know how he's going to react to focusing 100% of his efforts on improving at football rather than maintaining his 4.0 GPA in General Science. The Chargers invested a top 6 pick into him indicating that they believe in his potential and claiming his career will end up one way or another right now reeks of hubris.
It reeks of staying up to watch him play while the rest of the country woke up the next morning and saw that an Oregon team stacked with blue chip recruits had bulldozed another trash team in a glorified G5 conference like the Pac 12

The Chargers are the laughingstock of the AFC West for a reason and now it looks like they want to lock themselves into that role
We get it, man. You’re a Chiefs fan. Every post doesn’t have to just be you cheering for your team. This isn’t PFT.
Is calling the Chargers incompetent something that must be my homerism as a Chiefs fan?

Way more people laughed at the Giants for taking Jones (I did not--I could forgive his shortcomings easier considering the garbage Duke talent he played with). Were they Cowboys/Eagles fans "cheering for their team"?

I have stated specifically how the Broncos are a real threat in the AFC West and the Raiders could be as well in the near future

My evaluation of Herbert has always been that he will get a front office and coaching staff fired well before I knew the Chargers were taking him--just a happy coincidence that he went to a divisional team
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Eason
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell, Mooney, Collin Johnson, Marquez Callaway
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Random Dude

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: “Trend” for QBs taken #1

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:35 pm

As for number 1 I am nearly certain Burrow will have a similar spike in his first season.

The Bengals OL should improve with Jonah and they have legit skill position talent

The Kyler/Baker one is trickier and I could see it going either way. His rushing upside may protect his floor even is he does regress but I am still not sold on Kliff Kingsbury
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford, Eason
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell, Mooney, Collin Johnson, Marquez Callaway
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Random Dude

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger


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