Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Irbir
Starter
Starter
Posts: 604
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:36 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby Irbir » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:13 am

moishetreats wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am
How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2020 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.
Terrible idea. Why should the person finishing last in one season be guaranteed the 1.01 two years in a row? That’s quite the advantage. Weighted draft lottery makes the most sense to me.

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:34 am

Irbir wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:13 am
moishetreats wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am
How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2020 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.
Terrible idea. Why should the person finishing last in one season be guaranteed the 1.01 two years in a row? That’s quite the advantage. Weighted draft lottery makes the most sense to me.
Boy would I love this solution in one of my leagues. I've been rebuilding for years and now is the year I am set to start winning, but will gladly take the gift of 1.01 for the 4th year in a row. Would give me a roster of

Lamar
Josh Allen

Saquon
Jacobs
CEH
Swift

DJ Moore
Juju
DJ Chark
N'Keal Harry
Jeudy
Ja'Marr Chase (my current '21 1.01)

Kittle
Hockenson
Goedert


So ya, I'm probably an example of why this would not be a good idea...

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL
Captain
Captain
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:24 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby JOHNNY_COCKTAIL » Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:48 am

I think the fairest way Ive thought of is auction style. Future firsts are worth a certain amount of points, as are 2nds and 3rds and so on. Doesn’t pick a draft order that you know people will be pissed about. It rewards those who did trade for futures. Anyone see a hole in that plan?

User avatar
FiremanEd
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6233
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:51 pm

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby FiremanEd » Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:36 am

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:48 am
I think the fairest way Ive thought of is auction style. Future firsts are worth a certain amount of points, as are 2nds and 3rds and so on. Doesn’t pick a draft order that you know people will be pissed about. It rewards those who did trade for futures. Anyone see a hole in that plan?
All firsts being of the same value would be the most obvious issue with it. Not all teams are equal. You’d be making the 1.12 equal to a 1.01, unless you set probabilities/odds. How you make the determination of what’s worth what is still something that would need to be determined and the obvious issue.

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:12 pm

FiremanEd wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:36 am
JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:48 am
I think the fairest way Ive thought of is auction style. Future firsts are worth a certain amount of points, as are 2nds and 3rds and so on. Doesn’t pick a draft order that you know people will be pissed about. It rewards those who did trade for futures. Anyone see a hole in that plan?
All firsts being of the same value would be the most obvious issue with it. Not all teams are equal. You’d be making the 1.12 equal to a 1.01, unless you set probabilities/odds. How you make the determination of what’s worth what is still something that would need to be determined and the obvious issue.
Imagine in a SF league there's a team who has a strong roster, always finishes near the top, but for whatever reason has a weak QB2. Maybe he had Jameis who no longer has a job, or he's just been getting by with 1 QB and a position player in his SF slot, now that owner can go all-in on an elite QB prospect like Lawrence or Fields. Then the teams that would normally be in position to get that kind of player, plus another good one with their 2nd round pick have to decide whether to go all out to get the 1 elite guy, or let them go to the top teams so they can actually add more than one player which most teams in that draft position need anyway. This completely changes the way talent dispersal was designed to work in draft leagues. All the best teams will be greatly incentivized to max bid on Lawrence/Fields/Chase level guys because they would never be in position to acquire those level of players under normal circumstances. They wouldn't be able to trade their entire draft for the #1 pick most years, but converting to an auction essentially allows them to do so.

If I were in a league that were to handle it this way I would start trading for as many 3rd/4th round picks as I could and building up my bankroll, especially if I was a strong team, and putting myself in position to have the defacto #1 pick despite the fact I would never have it under normal circumstances.

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL
Captain
Captain
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:24 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby JOHNNY_COCKTAIL » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:18 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:12 pm
FiremanEd wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:36 am
JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:48 am
I think the fairest way Ive thought of is auction style. Future firsts are worth a certain amount of points, as are 2nds and 3rds and so on. Doesn’t pick a draft order that you know people will be pissed about. It rewards those who did trade for futures. Anyone see a hole in that plan?
All firsts being of the same value would be the most obvious issue with it. Not all teams are equal. You’d be making the 1.12 equal to a 1.01, unless you set probabilities/odds. How you make the determination of what’s worth what is still something that would need to be determined and the obvious issue.
Imagine in a SF league there's a team who has a strong roster, always finishes near the top, but for whatever reason has a weak QB2. Maybe he had Jameis who no longer has a job, or he's just been getting by with 1 QB and a position player in his SF slot, now that owner can go all-in on an elite QB prospect like Lawrence or Fields. Then the teams that would normally be in position to get that kind of player, plus another good one with their 2nd round pick have to decide whether to go all out to get the 1 elite guy, or let them go to the top teams so they can actually add more than one player which most teams in that draft position need anyway. This completely changes the way talent dispersal was designed to work in draft leagues. All the best teams will be greatly incentivized to max bid on Lawrence/Fields/Chase level guys because they would never be in position to acquire those level of players under normal circumstances. They wouldn't be able to trade their entire draft for the #1 pick most years, but converting to an auction essentially allows them to do so.

If I were in a league that were to handle it this way I would start trading for as many 3rd/4th round picks as I could and building up my bankroll, especially if I was a strong team, and putting myself in position to have the defacto #1 pick despite the fact I would never have it under normal circumstances.
I guess why I don’t think that would be an issue in my leagues is firsts get traded like hot cakes. There’s always 1-2 guys with like 4-5 first round picks. These guys will be the only ones in line to get the top tier talent this evening things out a bit I think. Obviously every plan has holes though and if your in a less active league I could absolutely see that.

I also have a few leagues I just started this year and if there is no season I don’t think anyone can argue they should have the #1 pick with no games ever played. So easy choice there I think at least. But I do see what your saying about leagues that are a few years in and if especially if there is a couple really bad teams

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:33 am

Active league or not it's still unbalanced. So what if someone has 4-5 1st round picks, doesn't mean they would necessarily be top 3. Say an owner acquired what would normally be picks 9-12, now they have a MASSIVE advantage over the rest of the league because all the picks are being treated equally even though they never would under normal circumstances. Converting picks into auctions is just going to lead to the rich getting richer in the majority of leagues.

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL
Captain
Captain
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:24 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby JOHNNY_COCKTAIL » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:42 am

Your right it could be changing the draft a bit in that regard but that person is also getting the same value either way. They are going to have to spend basically all those firsts to acquire Trevor Lawrence (there superflex leagues) or they can acquire a few highly touted RBs and WRs. In the end I think teams bad teams will be able to improve and good teams don’t get a massive advantage

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:54 am

No it's not the same, and they won't have to spend all the firsts to get Lawrence or Fields because not only do they have more picks/money than everyone else, that also means the rest of the league has less to spend. If you have a 12 team league and convert all the 1st round picks to $100 in auction money, but one team has 4 first round picks, that team now has $400, 3 teams have $0, and the other 9 only have $100. So the team with the picks can end up coming away with BOTH Lawrence and Fields, plus Ja'marr Chase and another top player.

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL
Captain
Captain
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:24 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby JOHNNY_COCKTAIL » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:00 am

Not trying to get into a big argument or anything but first there’s 2nds 3rds and 4ths that will be worth points as well. There’s also at 1-2 people with 2 so you have them maxing out there bids everyone’s maxing out there bids for the top players. Going to at LEAST have to spend 200+ in the format you created probably more though. I mean no way is perfect. What would you suggest?

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:23 am

I'm aware the other picks are worth money too, just used 1st round picks for simplicities sake and because they are worth the most. Also not all leagues are going to have picks already traded away for '21 as many don't do a lot of trading until the season has began, or have late rookie drafts that haven't happened yet.

As for what I would do you're right there is no perfect solution, but converting drafts to auctions does not bring fairness and balance that it appears to at first glance.

In existing leagues that have run for at least 3 years I would have some kind of weighted lottery system based upon the results of the last 3 league seasons. Then the teams who have historically struggled have the better chance at a higher pick, but not necessarily guaranteed. I haven't given a ton of thought exactly tohow to weight it yet, but I think a good starting point would be the bottom 4 teams would get 3 lottery balls, the middle 4 teams get 2 lottery balls and the top 4 get 1 lottery ball.

For younger leagues or just as an alternative to my previous suggestion, have all owners in the league submit a power ranking of the entire league in their opinions, then take the average of the results and hold a lottery off of that.

Again, it's not perfect, but it takes team qualities into account and leaves room for the unexpected rises and falls in draft position that happen in every league each year.

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL
Captain
Captain
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:24 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby JOHNNY_COCKTAIL » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:28 am

We discussed the power ranking idea but then we figured the guy with all the firsts would rank the teams based on their picks. I just pray to god there is a season

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4498
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:35 am

JOHNNY_COCKTAIL wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:28 am
We discussed the power ranking idea but then we figured the guy with all the firsts would rank the teams based on their picks. I just pray to god there is a season
Well the rankings should be public, so it should be blatantly obvious if that's what he's doing. I would like to assume integrity on owners sake, but unfortunately that's not always the case. If he has a pick he rates as top 3 when everyone else has it bottom 3 it's fairly obvious what he's doing and should be called out for it.

Also you seem to be basing all of your solutions and thought process on a specific league, where I am just talking about it in the broad sense over all leagues. If your league feels an auction works and is the way to go for you then go for it, I think it just brings up to many potential issues in most leagues.

jhizzo
Combine Attendee
Combine Attendee
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby jhizzo » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:44 pm

For those considering basing 2021 order on 2019 finish, weighting a lottery based on 2019 standings, or assigning auction values to picks based on 2019 standings...how are you planning to account for new owners who took over orphans and you held a replacement/dispersal draft?

For example, if the teams who "earned" 2020 picks 1.03, 1.07 and 1.10 based on their 2019 season all left the league, the new owners of those franchises no longer have the same rosters that "earned" those respective picks. All 3 owners are new to the league for 2020, and in this scenario there is no 2020 season. It's not fair that one lucky new owner gets the 3rd pick again, while the other two new owners get screwed based on something that happened before they even joined the league with someone else's roster.

I don't have an answer, just didn't see this being considered. As others have said, I don't think there is going to be any easy answer that works across the board in every league, or one that every league member will be happy about.

User avatar
Mike11
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1024
Joined: Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:45 pm

Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby Mike11 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:41 pm

There are going to be a lot of holes no matter the strategy, three things I'm thinking are

1) Total win/loss record through course of entire league (if 4 year league, add up all wins and losses, then average, then do lotto)

2) Estimated total points for the year including bench (so people can't sneak people off their starting roster) then work it backwards

3) Estimated total points for the year for power rankings then lotto system where like bottom 3 have chance for first overall (or some weighted system)
League Established in 2014

2015 League Champion
2017 League Champion
2018 League Champion

10 Team 20 Keeper League Non ppr

Starters in Bold

QbAaron Rodgers Lamar Justin Herbert, Cousins
RbChubb JT Gurley
Flex Gibson
WrJulio Jones Stefon Diggs Kenny Golladay Mike Williams, Jalen Reagor, Darius Slayton
TeTJ Hockenson Higbee


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CGW, Farley and 7 guests

DLF 2020 Cyber Week Sale