trc wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:06 am
mild wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:00 am
trc wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am
It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.
So it's 55 tickets total in a 10 + 9 + 8 + 7... setup.
Does the league winner with 1 ticket have a better shot of drawing that ticket in a bowl of 54 tickets, or in a bowl of 45 tickets?
A draw for a non-valid ticket is a push, and triggers a re-draw - but it still puts the 1-in-54 ticket in a less probabilistic situation, and gives the other more probable tickets a 2nd chance at hitting their probabilities.
ps. don't gamble!
This is why I put in relative
The chance ratio between each ticket holder will be the same. The one with 2 tickets will always have double the chance to get picked compared to the one with 1 ticket.
So yes the likelihood looking solely at the 1-ticket-holder is better in a 45 ticket situation than 54. But the likelihood also increased for everybody else (actually the 9-ticket holder goes from 16,7 % to 20 % likelihood, the 1-ticket holder from 1,9% to 2,2%).
PS - dont educate.
Oh you so didn't have to say relative... With the rules of redrawing on invalid tickets the chances of winning the next pick remains unchanged if you remove the tickets first or when they are drawn.
Dynasty Team #1:
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K
2021 Picks: 1.02,2.05,4.02,5.02,6.02,7.02
Dynasty Team #2: 2020 Champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K
Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky, Smith, Dalton
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Sutton
2021 picks: 1.05,1.12,4.06,4.12,5.12,6.12,7.07
DLF advice forum league:
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F
Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas
2021 Picks: 1.04,1.11,1.12,2.04,3.04,4.04,4.06,4.10