Dynasty League Football Forum

moishetreats wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2021 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.

I’m assuming keeping 2020 draft order for next year?

I don’t hate it but I’m playing devils advocate a little here. This scenario means my sig league would get 1.14, which I was hoping for, and ultimately seems fair. And I don’t own my own 1st anyhow so, wouldn’t even affect me haha.

However I could see a team that just won 2019 by a little luck (won another league with a 7-6 regular season), that’s also aging? On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.

Random thought: assuming no season and picks are lotteried or something, would you consider a snake draft opposed to a worst to first?

honcho55 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:11 pm

moishetreats wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2021 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.

I’m assuming keeping 2020 draft order for next year?

I don’t hate it but I’m playing devils advocate a little here. This scenario means my sig league would get 1.14, which I was hoping for, and ultimately seems fair. And I don’t own my own 1st anyhow so, wouldn’t even affect me haha.

However I could see a team that just won 2019 by a little luck (won another league with a 7-6 regular season), that’s also aging? On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.

Oops. Yup. Corrected. Thank you!

All your possibilities are certainly possible, and so are countless others. Rather than trying to create a system that can best replicate it and/or simulate the randomness, I'm just KISSing. Your devil's advocacy points are well-taken, though. I just don't want to go through want to have to deal with all them!

honcho55 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:10 pm On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.

No doubt.

Hell, the two teams that earned the 1.02 and 1.03 in my league combine to currently roster Mahomes, CMC, Chubb, Ekeler, MT, Amari and Kittle. Other talent too, that’s just the real studs. I’d bet they will both be playoff teams in 2020 if the season happens.

If there is a “fair” method of doing this that everyone will be happy with, I sure haven’t heard it. Weighted lottery or tiered lottery like FF laid out is better in my opinion as opposed to ordering teams according to my projections, my league mates rankings, adp or whatever EA Sports projects as others have suggested.

I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

FiremanEd wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

I see a new forum section just for this lol.

abloom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm

FiremanEd wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

I see a new forum section just for this lol.

That could be even more ideal than paying...get 4-5 people each willing to review 3-4 other leagues, and each person gets a sample size to base a ranking on. Truth be told, I'd probably be willing for that, assuming I trusted the people's opinions.

FiremanEd wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:33 pm

abloom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm

FiremanEd wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

I see a new forum section just for this lol.

That could be even more ideal than paying...get 4-5 people each willing to review 3-4 other leagues, and each person gets a sample size to base a ranking on. Truth be told, I'd probably be willing for that, assuming I trusted the people's opinions.

If there are specific forum members you could always message them to see if they are willing.

abloom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm

FiremanEd wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

I see a new forum section just for this lol.

There is a pod cast "The Dynasty Dude" and he does this service. He looks at the league and gives rankings, trade opportunities, etc. No idea what he charges.

abloom wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:16 pm Random thought: assuming no season and picks are lotteried or something, would you consider a snake draft opposed to a worst to first?

that's what my league is considering, order will stay the same as this year but snaking the 2nd and 4th rounds(5 total)

Can the OP please edit the title? It's driving me nuts

Had this discussion with my league mates yesterday. Snake draft was proposed. Keeping the picks the same as 2020 was proposed. But ultimately the best solution we all liked was:

- Weighted draft lottery with 2020 draft order
- 1.01 gets 10 tickets, 1.02 gets 9 tickets, etc...
- When drawing, don't take any drawn teams tickets out, just keep drawing until you get the results - you want to keep probabilities the same

Keeps it fun and best represents the randomness of 2020, whilst also keeping the worst teams sated and giving the top teams "a chance" for craziness.

mild wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:18 pm - When drawing, don't take any drawn teams tickets out, just keep drawing until you get the results - you want to keep probabilities the same

It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.

trc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.

So it's 55 tickets total in a 10 + 9 + 8 + 7... setup.

Does the league winner with 1 ticket have a better shot of drawing that ticket in a bowl of 54 tickets, or in a bowl of 45 tickets?

A draw for a non-valid ticket is a push, and triggers a re-draw - but it still puts the 1-in-54 ticket in a less probabilistic situation, and gives the other more probable tickets a 2nd chance at hitting their probabilities.

You're welcome ps. don't gamble!

mild wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:00 am

trc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.

So it's 55 tickets total in a 10 + 9 + 8 + 7... setup.

Does the league winner with 1 ticket have a better shot of drawing that ticket in a bowl of 54 tickets, or in a bowl of 45 tickets?

A draw for a non-valid ticket is a push, and triggers a re-draw - but it still puts the 1-in-54 ticket in a less probabilistic situation, and gives the other more probable tickets a 2nd chance at hitting their probabilities.

You're welcome ps. don't gamble!

... wait are you saying that if there are 54 tickets (9 invalid triggering redraws, 44 tickets that would not win for the league winner, and 1 ticket that would be a win for the league winner) that it is different than 45 tickets (1 ticket that would be a win for the league winner)?

Because if so...
There is one way to win in the second option with a 1/45 chance (thats simple and can be agreed upon right?)

There are 10 ways of winning with the first option.
(1) 1/54
(2) 9/54 x 1/53
(3) 9/54 x 8/53 x 1/52
(4) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 1/51
(5) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 1/50
(6) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 1/49
(7) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 1/48
(8) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 1/47
(9) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 2/47 x 1/46
(10) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 2/47 x 1/46 x 1/45

The sum of all these ways of winning = 1/45

So if you remove the invalid tickets you have a 1/45 chance, and if you don't remove it you have a 1/45 chance

I feel like I'm doing way to many math classes in this forum....