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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:37 am

ericanadian wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:19 am
Pac_Eddy wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:34 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:23 amThere are only 5 WRs that have played more games in the last 5 years than Cooks. He's been available for 92% of his career games.
I like Cooks and think he'll have a nice season, but some of these stats are a little loose with the truth.

Sure, he started a lot of games. How many did he not finish? How many did his owners have to sweat out til the last second to see if he'd play? Were those questions before games on a Sunday or Monday night, forcing you to start someone else long before his status is revealed? Did he play hurt and get used mostly as a decoy?

Those things don't make the stat sheet and contribute to the injury risk label.
They actually kind of do make the stat sheet. The injury report history is available on pro football reference. Cooks was on the injury report only for the two games he missed. Data could be wrong, but it’s as good a source as any.

As for being removed from games, you can usually make an educated guess on that off of snap count by game data. He appears to have been pulled out of zero games in 2017. One game in 2018. Three games in 2019.
Dropping 🔥🔥🔥
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby sugbear65 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pm

Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon could be upside shots that cost peanuts to acquire.
M. Stafford feels perennially undervalued.
There’s legitimately a ton of TE options out there to take a shot on. One I like to target is the Houston TEs. If one of them can steal a majority of passing work, it could pay big dividends.
And I feel like RBs seem to be overvalued across the board, so all I’ll say is buy D. Singletary now while you can do so affordably.

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:26 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pm Josh Gordon could be an upside shot that cost peanuts to acquire.
I'd rather acquire a peanut allergy.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby sugbear65 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:34 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:26 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pm Josh Gordon could be an upside shot that cost peanuts to acquire.
I'd rather acquire a peanut allergy.
Hey, name recognition can be a heck of a tool. Say he gets reinstated under the newer lax drug policy tomorrow and signed with a team like Philly, Baltimore, New England...I bet you my bottom dollar I could sell him for a 3rd, minimum, to at least one owner in my leagues. Or a player I like better. When his price now is basically free, a profit is a profit.

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:44 pm

sugbear65 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:34 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:26 pm
sugbear65 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pm Josh Gordon could be an upside shot that cost peanuts to acquire.
I'd rather acquire a peanut allergy.
Hey, name recognition can be a heck of a tool. Say he gets reinstated under the newer lax drug policy tomorrow and signed with a team like Philly, Baltimore, New England...I bet you my bottom dollar I could sell him for a 3rd, minimum, to at least one owner in my leagues. Or a player I like better. When his price now is basically free, a profit is a profit.
Sadly, I don't disagree. Someone will buy him if so. The ultimate roster clogger that keeps on giving!
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:18 pm

The title makes my head hurt.

As for bargain players that are criminally undervalued:
PJ Walker
Taysom Hill
(formerly) Cam Newton
Noah Fant - This guy entered the league with a phenomenal profile and then had an historically good rookie season.... and people are still "waiting" on him to hit. He's already a hit folks, y'all just slow to react.
Hakeem Butler - Yes, he was overhyped pre 2019 NFL draft; but a lot of people have completely written him off under the misconception that he was IR'd for a minor injury. The truth however, is that it was a very legitimate injury where he almost detached his finger. He might be on your waiver wire right now, but the chances he hits isn't 0. He probably belongs in the Andy Isabella tier of fliers.
Latavius Murray/Ty Montgomery - We've already had two RBs threaten to holdout in contract years in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook... but Kamara has an even better profile. There's a chance he holds out which would push one of these two into one of the best fantasy RB situations you could ask for; and this upside is currently not baked into their ADP.
Corey Coleman - Was coming on strong entering 2019 before he tore his ACL in camp or we might've been talking about his 5th year breakout instead of Darius Slayton. Team has had a lot of trouble staying healthy at the receiver positions, and opportunity may prevent itself once more.

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:09 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:18 pm The title makes my head hurt.

As for bargain players that are criminally undervalued:
PJ Walker
Taysom Hill
(formerly) Cam Newton
Noah Fant - This guy entered the league with a phenomenal profile and then had an historically good rookie season.... and people are still "waiting" on him to hit. He's already a hit folks, y'all just slow to react.
Hakeem Butler - Yes, he was overhyped pre 2019 NFL draft; but a lot of people have completely written him off under the misconception that he was IR'd for a minor injury. The truth however, is that it was a very legitimate injury where he almost detached his finger. He might be on your waiver wire right now, but the chances he hits isn't 0. He probably belongs in the Andy Isabella tier of fliers.
Latavius Murray/Ty Montgomery - We've already had two RBs threaten to holdout in contract years in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook... but Kamara has an even better profile. There's a chance he holds out which would push one of these two into one of the best fantasy RB situations you could ask for; and this upside is currently not baked into their ADP.
Corey Coleman - Was coming on strong entering 2019 before he tore his ACL in camp or we might've been talking about his 5th year breakout instead of Darius Slayton. Team has had a lot of trouble staying healthy at the receiver positions, and opportunity may prevent itself once more.
Regarding Butler: my understanding is that the coaching staff was relieved to IR Butler because they didn’t want to have to admit a mistake and cut him... had he not gotten hurt he was likely in trouble of being cut

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl- ... ostscript/

From the Arizona point of view, this trade could spell the end of Hakeem Butler’s short career with the franchise. Last fall I was told the team was not happy with their fourth-round pick from the 2019 draft and the Cardinals were relieved they had to place him on injured reserve rather than face the embarrassment of cutting him before the regular season. I heard further confirmation of this during the Scouting Combine three weeks ago.
Last edited by Johnny B. Goode on Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:12 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:09 pm
Regarding Butler: my understanding is that the coaching staff was relieved to IR Butler because they didn’t want to have to admit a mistake and cut him... had he not gotten hurt he was likely in trouble of being cut
Is there a source for this? Or is it largely conjecture?

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:21 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:09 pm
Regarding Butler: my understanding is that the coaching staff was relieved to IR Butler because they didn’t want to have to admit a mistake and cut him... had he not gotten hurt he was likely in trouble of being cut
Is there a source for this? Or is it largely conjecture?
Posted above

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:24 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:21 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:09 pm
Regarding Butler: my understanding is that the coaching staff was relieved to IR Butler because they didn’t want to have to admit a mistake and cut him... had he not gotten hurt he was likely in trouble of being cut
Is there a source for this? Or is it largely conjecture?
Posted above
That's interesting. :thumbup:

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:19 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:18 pm The title makes my head hurt.

As for bargain players that are criminally undervalued:
PJ Walker
Taysom Hill
(formerly) Cam Newton
Noah Fant - This guy entered the league with a phenomenal profile and then had an historically good rookie season.... and people are still "waiting" on him to hit. He's already a hit folks, y'all just slow to react.
Hakeem Butler - Yes, he was overhyped pre 2019 NFL draft; but a lot of people have completely written him off under the misconception that he was IR'd for a minor injury. The truth however, is that it was a very legitimate injury where he almost detached his finger. He might be on your waiver wire right now, but the chances he hits isn't 0. He probably belongs in the Andy Isabella tier of fliers.
Latavius Murray/Ty Montgomery - We've already had two RBs threaten to holdout in contract years in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook... but Kamara has an even better profile. There's a chance he holds out which would push one of these two into one of the best fantasy RB situations you could ask for; and this upside is currently not baked into their ADP.
Corey Coleman - Was coming on strong entering 2019 before he tore his ACL in camp or we might've been talking about his 5th year breakout instead of Darius Slayton. Team has had a lot of trouble staying healthy at the receiver positions, and opportunity may prevent itself once more.
💯 on the title of this thread

Walker, Coleman and Montgomery seem like watchlist players. I'm in a deep league (400+ rostered) and these guys are all waiver material.

Fant is still expensive, at least in my league. I haven't seen a big discount personally.

Murray was my #1 buy last offseason as a Kamara owner. He's a must handcuff, price permitting.

Hill is a nice bench player om a deep roster, especially he can be used at numerous positions as a flex. Hill reminds me of Kordell Stewart. He'll never be a good starting QB, but he's a great offensive weapon in that offense.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:11 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:19 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:18 pm The title makes my head hurt.

As for bargain players that are criminally undervalued:
PJ Walker
Taysom Hill
(formerly) Cam Newton
Noah Fant - This guy entered the league with a phenomenal profile and then had an historically good rookie season.... and people are still "waiting" on him to hit. He's already a hit folks, y'all just slow to react.
Hakeem Butler - Yes, he was overhyped pre 2019 NFL draft; but a lot of people have completely written him off under the misconception that he was IR'd for a minor injury. The truth however, is that it was a very legitimate injury where he almost detached his finger. He might be on your waiver wire right now, but the chances he hits isn't 0. He probably belongs in the Andy Isabella tier of fliers.
Latavius Murray/Ty Montgomery - We've already had two RBs threaten to holdout in contract years in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook... but Kamara has an even better profile. There's a chance he holds out which would push one of these two into one of the best fantasy RB situations you could ask for; and this upside is currently not baked into their ADP.
Corey Coleman - Was coming on strong entering 2019 before he tore his ACL in camp or we might've been talking about his 5th year breakout instead of Darius Slayton. Team has had a lot of trouble staying healthy at the receiver positions, and opportunity may prevent itself once more.
💯 on the title of this thread

Walker, Coleman and Montgomery seem like watchlist players. I'm in a deep league (400+ rostered) and these guys are all waiver material.

Fant is still expensive, at least in my league. I haven't seen a big discount personally.

Murray was my #1 buy last offseason as a Kamara owner. He's a must handcuff, price permitting.

Hill is a nice bench player om a deep roster, especially he can be used at numerous positions as a flex. Hill reminds me of Kordell Stewart. He'll never be a good starting QB, but he's a great offensive weapon in that offense.
Re Fant: Fant's rookie season was every bit as impressive as AJB's rookie season once you account for the TE position. Both were good prospects that proved they belong in the NFL in their rookie year. AJB's value has skyrocketed despite being stuck in a bad situation for fantasy success... because his talent is undeniable. Fant's value hasn't moved nearly as much, and many people still view him as a similar, or even worse dynasty asset than TJ Hockenson despite their vastly different rookie seasons. This situation is tantamount to consensus valuing N'keal Harry as much as AJB.. which most would agree, is crazy

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:39 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:11 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:19 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:18 pm The title makes my head hurt.

As for bargain players that are criminally undervalued:
PJ Walker
Taysom Hill
(formerly) Cam Newton
Noah Fant - This guy entered the league with a phenomenal profile and then had an historically good rookie season.... and people are still "waiting" on him to hit. He's already a hit folks, y'all just slow to react.
Hakeem Butler - Yes, he was overhyped pre 2019 NFL draft; but a lot of people have completely written him off under the misconception that he was IR'd for a minor injury. The truth however, is that it was a very legitimate injury where he almost detached his finger. He might be on your waiver wire right now, but the chances he hits isn't 0. He probably belongs in the Andy Isabella tier of fliers.
Latavius Murray/Ty Montgomery - We've already had two RBs threaten to holdout in contract years in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook... but Kamara has an even better profile. There's a chance he holds out which would push one of these two into one of the best fantasy RB situations you could ask for; and this upside is currently not baked into their ADP.
Corey Coleman - Was coming on strong entering 2019 before he tore his ACL in camp or we might've been talking about his 5th year breakout instead of Darius Slayton. Team has had a lot of trouble staying healthy at the receiver positions, and opportunity may prevent itself once more.
💯 on the title of this thread

Walker, Coleman and Montgomery seem like watchlist players. I'm in a deep league (400+ rostered) and these guys are all waiver material.

Fant is still expensive, at least in my league. I haven't seen a big discount personally.

Murray was my #1 buy last offseason as a Kamara owner. He's a must handcuff, price permitting.

Hill is a nice bench player om a deep roster, especially he can be used at numerous positions as a flex. Hill reminds me of Kordell Stewart. He'll never be a good starting QB, but he's a great offensive weapon in that offense.
Re Fant: Fant's rookie season was every bit as impressive as AJB's rookie season once you account for the TE position. Both were good prospects that proved they belong in the NFL in their rookie year. AJB's value has skyrocketed despite being stuck in a bad situation for fantasy success... because his talent is undeniable. Fant's value hasn't moved nearly as much, and many people still view him as a similar, or even worse dynasty asset than TJ Hockenson despite their vastly different rookie seasons. This situation is tantamount to consensus valuing N'keal Harry as much as AJB.. which most would agree, is crazy
I'm in agreement that AJB's value has inflated too much. I just haven't seen a discount for Fant. He hasn't skyrocketed by any means, but I don't think he's lost value either. His acquisition cost seems to have remained the same.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:23 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:39 pm
Re Fant: Fant's rookie season was every bit as impressive as AJB's rookie season once you account for the TE position. Both were good prospects that proved they belong in the NFL in their rookie year. AJB's value has skyrocketed despite being stuck in a bad situation for fantasy success... because his talent is undeniable. Fant's value hasn't moved nearly as much, and many people still view him as a similar, or even worse dynasty asset than TJ Hockenson despite their vastly different rookie seasons. This situation is tantamount to consensus valuing N'keal Harry as much as AJB.. which most would agree, is crazy
I'm in agreement that AJB's value has inflated too much. I just haven't seen a discount for Fant. He hasn't skyrocketed by any means, but I don't think he's lost value either. His acquisition cost seems to have remained the same.
I'm of the opinion that AJB is correctly valued; Fant not gaining value despite a great rookie season is what's weird to me.

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Re: Bargain players than need to be shopped

Postby StripesOfKC » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:57 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:23 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:39 pm
Re Fant: Fant's rookie season was every bit as impressive as AJB's rookie season once you account for the TE position. Both were good prospects that proved they belong in the NFL in their rookie year. AJB's value has skyrocketed despite being stuck in a bad situation for fantasy success... because his talent is undeniable. Fant's value hasn't moved nearly as much, and many people still view him as a similar, or even worse dynasty asset than TJ Hockenson despite their vastly different rookie seasons. This situation is tantamount to consensus valuing N'keal Harry as much as AJB.. which most would agree, is crazy
I'm in agreement that AJB's value has inflated too much. I just haven't seen a discount for Fant. He hasn't skyrocketed by any means, but I don't think he's lost value either. His acquisition cost seems to have remained the same.
I'm of the opinion that AJB is correctly valued; Fant not gaining value despite a great rookie season is what's weird to me.
The gap between Fant and Hock--if at all existent--is far smaller than the one between AJB and N'Keal Harry

Hock has a clearer path to targets and was a far superior TE prospect than Harry was a WR prospect.

The only similarity they have is that they were both hurt most of the season


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