Cam Newton Thread - Back to Carolina

[OhCruelestRanter]

Vegas makes money in the sports books at least as much by reading public perception as it does by evaluating both sides of a proposition. Their ideal is to get as many suckers on the wrong side of a proposition as possible.

It’s valuable to use betting lines in helping to make judgments in sports, and thereby in things like FF. Just make as sure as possible you’re reading the intent of a line moving - especially when it moves significantly - properly.

This isn't how Vegas moves lines. Their goal isn't to "get as many suckers on the wrong side of a line." Their goal is to generate lots of action and have the same amount of money on each side of the line so that they minimize their risk and they're sure to profit from the vig.

When a line moves significantly in one direction, it's a reflection of where the public is putting their money. The public is now putting more money behind New England than they were before the Cam Newton signing.

[kadun2]

Saying with confidence what the Patriots will do is folly. They could start different QBs every other game, or have one play the first half and the other the second half.

[Bronco Billy]

Vegas makes money in the sports books at least as much by reading public perception as it does by evaluating both sides of a proposition. Their ideal is to get as many suckers on the wrong side of a proposition as possible.

It’s valuable to use betting lines in helping to make judgments in sports, and thereby in things like FF. Just make as sure as possible you’re reading the intent of a line moving - especially when it moves significantly - properly.

This isn't how Vegas moves lines. Their goal isn't to "get as many suckers on the wrong side of a line." Their goal is to generate lots of action and have the same amount of money on each side of the line so that they minimize their risk and they're sure to profit from the vig.

When a line moves significantly in one direction, it's a reflection of where the public is putting their money. The public is now putting more money behind New England than they were before the Cam Newton signing.

I didn’t say that their goal was to get as many suckers on the wrong side of the line as possible, did I? I said that it was their ideal situation.

Thanks for the lesson. Yeah, I know that Vegas’ goal in setting lines is to have equal money on both sides and reap the vig at no cost to themselves. But when a line moves significantly, they are trying to move money in a certain direction for balance, or they have read the room and see the perceptions of a lot of suckers willing to get on what they see is the wrong side of the line. Just figure which it is before laying your own cash down.

[_yeti]

I remember a little "washed-up" player waltzing over to the Patriots by the name of Randy Moss. Didn't they go 16-0 the next year?

Has anybody in all of this talk over contracts and money had any discussion on what they would buy/sell for in a superflex?

[Cameron Giles]

I remember a little "washed-up" player waltzing over to the Patriots by the name of Randy Moss. Didn't they go 16-0 the next year?

Has anybody in all of this talk over contracts and money had any discussion on what they would buy/sell for in a superflex?

Chad Johnson. Albert Haynesworth. Demaryius Thomas.

They've had their share of misses too on former stars.

[Orenthal Shames]

Says who? This isn’t Pop Warner football. This is big business. If Stidham can handle being one of 32 starting NFL QBs on the planet, do you thinking adding Newton is going to suddenly make him curl up in the corner and cry? Healthy competition and another vet presence ought to bring out the best in him. If it doesn’t then he doesn’t belong there in the first place.

Sports psychology wouldn't exist if it were this simple.

If it were, every team in the league would've been clamoring to add this cheap, "healthy" competition.

And I’d point to success rate over the past number of years and argue that NE probably understands how to handle their franchise better than almost every, if not every, team in the league.

Look at GB - they didn’t worry about Favre’s ego when they drafted Rodgers in the 1st round, and now they aren’t worried about Rodgers’ ego in doing the same thing with Love.

You do what you have to in order to establish your franchise guy in as small of a window as possible when it is time to turn over, and the current starting QB’s feelings be damned. That’s how you keep from being Cleveland or Chicago or Jacksonville.

Teams don’t invest in multiple potential starting QBs because they are short sighted. Look at how NE has reaped the benefits of sending potential starters to other teams over the years.

I’ll say it again - if a team’s starting QB’s ego is too fragile to handle some strong competition for his spot then they probably have invested in the wrong guy. You can’t have two strong vets with 5+ years in the stable because of the cap implications. But having a vet used to starting up against your potential rising young QB? That is an ideal situation IMO. Here’s your chance, you two. Let the best man win. And you’re starting to see this a lot more at the top college programs.

I agree on NE playing chess while many teams play checkers, that's how they've remained competitive so long. BB wants to prove he can still rule the AFC East. If Cam is healthy, he is far and away the best QB in that division (until we see what Tua can do in a year or two). If not, Stidham was always the fall back plan.

The GB situation was totally different. Favre and Roger's were/are aging superstars at the time. They were in their mid 30's (35 & 36) and nearing the end when GB invested heavily in their future at the position. Stidham is a 2nd year, 4th round pick who has never started a game. He's proven nothing in the NFL.

[Sriracha]

Vegas makes money in the sports books at least as much by reading public perception as it does by evaluating both sides of a proposition. Their ideal is to get as many suckers on the wrong side of a proposition as possible.

It’s valuable to use betting lines in helping to make judgments in sports, and thereby in things like FF. Just make as sure as possible you’re reading the intent of a line moving - especially when it moves significantly - properly.

This isn't how Vegas moves lines. Their goal isn't to "get as many suckers on the wrong side of a line." Their goal is to generate lots of action and have the same amount of money on each side of the line so that they minimize their risk and they're sure to profit from the vig.

When a line moves significantly in one direction, it's a reflection of where the public is putting their money. The public is now putting more money behind New England than they were before the Cam Newton signing.

For the most part, yes. But I doubt the betting market alone is the reason the line swung so heavily in favor of NE the day Cam got signed. This is more than likely Vegas valuing Cam's ability to make NE a better football team and preemptively adjusting the line to account for their new expected win totals. This is the same reason that they'll move the line if a starting QB is out, but not when an overrated player (in relation to football wins) like Leveon Bell misses games.

[StripesOfKC]

In no particular order: the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans, Colts and Broncos are handily better on paper just in the AFC with the Steelers joining that group if Ben is in truly 2018 form

Going to be really funny when the Bills clinch the division with ease. I seriously don't know how anyone can look at this Patriots roster and see a contender. On paper: against the Bills they have an edge at QB that could disappear or widen depending on Cam's recovery, Allen regressing, Allen improving another step like he did last year, etc, a slight edge in the secondary and at OL.

On the other hand the Bills have better backs, a far better receiving corps, a far better defensive line and a far better linebacker group

I have no doubt Bellichick can push the Patriots ahead of a couple of those 7 teams I listed but contenders--LOL, more like first round exits that can MAYBE win a playoff game if all breaks right

For my take I hope he does and the Patriots earn a trip to Kansas City for the first round and an early offseason: We owe them a good old-fashioned thumping for the 2018 AFC Championship--thrashing them would be far more satisfying than beating the Steelers or Colts

That said: they can actually get taken seriously with Cam
With Stidham they have a real shot at being worse than the Jets and Dolphins and fighting for a top 5 pick

I hope they do roll with Stidham though and experience a dose of the Brodie Coyle/Tyler Thigpen/Matt Cassell type experiments I had to watch for years

[Orenthal Shames]

the Bills they have an edge at QB

Josh Allen was one of the worst QBs in the league in terms of passing the football last year.

[StripesOfKC]

the Bills they have an edge at QB

Josh Allen was one of the worst QBs in the league in terms of passing the football last year.

I said the Patriots have an edge at QB.

I'll edit to clarify

[Orenthal Shames]

the Bills they have an edge at QB

Josh Allen was one of the worst QBs in the league in terms of passing the football last year.

I said the Patriots have an edge at QB.

I'll edit to clarify

Ohhhhhh

[Sriracha]

In no particular order: the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans, Colts and Broncos are handily better on paper just in the AFC with the Steelers joining that group if Ben is in truly 2018 form

Going to be really funny when the Bills clinch the division with ease. I seriously don't know how anyone can look at this Patriots roster and see a contender. On paper: against the Bills they have an edge at QB that could disappear or widen depending on Cam's recovery, Allen regressing, Allen improving another step like he did last year, etc, a slight edge in the secondary and at OL.

On the other hand the Bills have better backs, a far better receiving corps, a far better defensive line and a far better linebacker group

I have no doubt Bellichick can push the Patriots ahead of a couple of those 7 teams I listed but contenders--LOL, more like first round exits that can MAYBE win a playoff game if all breaks right

For my take I hope he does and the Patriots earn a trip to Kansas City for the first round and an early offseason: We owe them a good old-fashioned thumping for the 2018 AFC Championship--thrashing them would be far more satisfying than beating the Steelers or Colts

That said: they can actually get taken seriously with Cam
With Stidham they have a real shot at being worse than the Jets and Dolphins and fighting for a top 5 pick

I hope they do roll with Stidham though and experience a dose of the Brodie Coyle/Tyler Thigpen/Matt Cassell type experiments I had to watch for years

I'm all for hating on the Patriots, and I was excited to finally see this Dynasty end... but NE had the #1 DVOA defense in the NFL last year, and Cam's had a lot of success with subpar supporting casts throughout his career so they should be at least ok to good on offense depending on Cam. Once you factor in the HC edge in low margin games.. and I can't help but feel your power rankings are overly optimistic.

They are heavy favorites to finish 3rd in the AFC via Vegas odds.. which seems pretty reasonable.

[Orenthal Shames]

In no particular order: the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans, Colts and Broncos are handily better on paper just in the AFC with the Steelers joining that group if Ben is in truly 2018 form

Going to be really funny when the Bills clinch the division with ease. I seriously don't know how anyone can look at this Patriots roster and see a contender. On paper: against the Bills they have an edge at QB that could disappear or widen depending on Cam's recovery, Allen regressing, Allen improving another step like he did last year, etc, a slight edge in the secondary and at OL.

On the other hand the Bills have better backs, a far better receiving corps, a far better defensive line and a far better linebacker group

I have no doubt Bellichick can push the Patriots ahead of a couple of those 7 teams I listed but contenders--LOL, more like first round exits that can MAYBE win a playoff game if all breaks right

For my take I hope he does and the Patriots earn a trip to Kansas City for the first round and an early offseason: We owe them a good old-fashioned thumping for the 2018 AFC Championship--thrashing them would be far more satisfying than beating the Steelers or Colts

That said: they can actually get taken seriously with Cam
With Stidham they have a real shot at being worse than the Jets and Dolphins and fighting for a top 5 pick

I hope they do roll with Stidham though and experience a dose of the Brodie Coyle/Tyler Thigpen/Matt Cassell type experiments I had to watch for years

I'm all for hating on the Patriots, and I was excited to finally see this Dynasty end... but NE had the #1 DVOA defense in the NFL last year, and Cam's had a lot of success with subpar supporting casts throughout his career so they should be at least ok to good on offense depending on Cam. Once you factor in the HC edge in low margin games.. and I can't help but feel your power rankings are overly optimistic.

They are heavy favorites to finish 3rd in the AFC via Vegas odds.. which seems pretty reasonable.

Agree. I think only KC and BAL are clearly ahead of them if Cam is healthy.

[StripesOfKC]

In no particular order: the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans, Colts and Broncos are handily better on paper just in the AFC with the Steelers joining that group if Ben is in truly 2018 form

Going to be really funny when the Bills clinch the division with ease. I seriously don't know how anyone can look at this Patriots roster and see a contender. On paper: against the Bills they have an edge at QB that could disappear or widen depending on Cam's recovery, Allen regressing, Allen improving another step like he did last year, etc, a slight edge in the secondary and at OL.

On the other hand the Bills have better backs, a far better receiving corps, a far better defensive line and a far better linebacker group

I have no doubt Bellichick can push the Patriots ahead of a couple of those 7 teams I listed but contenders--LOL, more like first round exits that can MAYBE win a playoff game if all breaks right

For my take I hope he does and the Patriots earn a trip to Kansas City for the first round and an early offseason: We owe them a good old-fashioned thumping for the 2018 AFC Championship--thrashing them would be far more satisfying than beating the Steelers or Colts

That said: they can actually get taken seriously with Cam
With Stidham they have a real shot at being worse than the Jets and Dolphins and fighting for a top 5 pick

I hope they do roll with Stidham though and experience a dose of the Brodie Coyle/Tyler Thigpen/Matt Cassell type experiments I had to watch for years

I'm all for hating on the Patriots, and I was excited to finally see this Dynasty end... but NE had the #1 DVOA defense in the NFL last year, and Cam's had a lot of success with subpar supporting casts throughout his career so they should be at least ok to good on offense depending on Cam. Once you factor in the HC edge in low margin games.. and I can't help but feel your power rankings are overly optimistic.

They are heavy favorites to finish 3rd in the AFC via Vegas odds.. which seems pretty reasonable.

Agree. I think only KC and BAL are clearly ahead of them if Cam is healthy.

Titans smashed that a** with Brady.

Bills barely, barely lost that division also with Brady and then got better in the offseason

Their defense puffed up their numbers beating up garbage teams and a soft schedule for the first 8 weeks. Their secondary is pretty elite--aging but elite

The rest of their defense?

Got run over by Baltimore, got run over by Derrick Henry, was soundly trounced by the Texans and couldn't get pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick against a horrendous Dolphins OL when they needed it most

I fear the Titans, Colts, Broncos and Bills more by a good margin because I think those teams have too much of a talent edge to be made up for by coaching

I will eat my words if I am proven wrong but I ain't scared and want them in KC for the playoffs to get revenge

[Sriracha]

Titans smashed that a** with Brady.

Bills barely, barely lost that division also with Brady and then got better in the offseason

Their defense puffed up their numbers beating up garbage teams and a soft schedule for the first 8 weeks. Their secondary is pretty elite--aging but elite

The rest of their defense?

Got run over by Baltimore, got run over by Derrick Henry, was soundly trounced by the Texans and couldn't get pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick against a horrendous Dolphins OL when they needed it most

I fear the Titans, Colts, Broncos and Bills more by a good margin because I think those teams have too much of a talent edge to be made up for by coaching

I will eat my words if I am proven wrong but I don't see it

Sure, NE isn't the most talented defense but they are a quality one with the best HC of all time leading their scheme. I'd be more worried about their defense if the Patriots didn't have such a great track record of getting the most out of their players.

I would say the Broncos are a sleeping giant and the other 3 are frauds. If Lock is the truth, then they're going to make some noise next season... but he still has to prove it before I'm moving them ahead of the Patriots.