What is considered young?

[grandmabetty]

I know this question is position specific but, if as a general rule its best to trade away your studs at peak value, in other words, trade them too early rather than too late, at what age do we consider doing that? I was just looking at my roster (not in signature) and I realized Michael Thomas is 27. That surprised me. That coupled with the fact brees has max 2 years left and I wondered if now would be a good time to trade for max value.

Like I mentioned I know this is a position specific question and it can depend on other aspects like qb age, team success ect, but at what age do you start to consider a player is at peak value?

For me personally I've always thought of age 27 as the pinaccle. After age 27 the perceived value (and therefore trade value) goes down. This is not always true obviously but as a general rule I look at age 27 as possibly the last opportunity to sell "early" on your studs.

[killer_of_giants]

trade-wise, it seems being 27 means you're just about to need mobility aid these days, and if you're a RB and on the third year of your rookie contract you already start to smell funny.

so yeah, peak trade-value is about 26-27 for a WR, 24 for a RB.

which makes me think that selling your studs at peak trade-value maybe is not that great of a rule: their scoring-value for the rest of their careers may well be worth a lot more than what you're getting back. so unless you get great/crazy value, might as well ride your studs into the sunset. if you have a player that just had the (likely) best season of their careers (mccaffrey, thomas) and someone thinks they're going to produce like that for the next three seasons and makes you an offer you can't refuse, by all means sell! but how many times does that happen?

also, easy to say "sell someone at peak value", but you need a buyer too, and why do i have to spend a top price for a player that's going to decrease in value? might do it if in a short win-now window but otherwise you're better off spending for someone whose value will increase.

[dynastyninja]

Young | Middle Age | Old

QB: 20-29 | 30-34 | 35+
RB: 20-24 | 25-26 | 27+
WR: 20-25 | 26-28 | 29+
TE: 20-27 | 28-31 | 32+

[Cameron Giles]

trade-wise, it seems being 27 means you're just about to need mobility aid these days, and if you're a RB and on the third year of your rookie contract you already start to smell funny.

so yeah, peak trade-value is about 26-27 for a WR, 24 for a RB.

which makes me think that selling your studs at peak trade-value maybe is not that great of a rule: their scoring-value for the rest of their careers may well be worth a lot more than what you're getting back. so unless you get great/crazy value, might as well ride your studs into the sunset. if you have a player that just had the (likely) best season of their careers (mccaffrey, thomas) and someone thinks they're going to produce like that for the next three seasons and makes you an offer you can't refuse, by all means sell! but how many times does that happen?

also, easy to say "sell someone at peak value", but you need a buyer too, and why do i have to spend a top price for a player that's going to decrease in value? might do it if in a short win-now window but otherwise you're better off spending for someone whose value will increase.

Good post. I think selling at peak value is fine in theory, but as you noted, it doesn't necessarily mean you're making your team better. Ultimately, the goal is to win leagues not ADP titles.

You could trade Thomas right now and get back a ton of upside on paper, but those players could easily end up doing nothing long-term and make your team worse. Thomas is looking like a HOF-type of talent at WR. Even without Drew Brees, I'd still bet on him.

I'm more inclined to sell high on RBs at peak value because of the volatility and injuries that come with the position, but stud WRs can produce for a long, long time and help you win titles. Julio Jones is 31 and can still post WR1 numbers. A healthy AJ Green, who turns 32 in July, is a threat to put up WR1 numbers. Larry Fitzgerald a few years ago was still providing great value. Sure, you could've sold all of these players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think.

[TheNuts]

trade-wise, it seems being 27 means you're just about to need mobility aid these days, and if you're a RB and on the third year of your rookie contract you already start to smell funny.

so yeah, peak trade-value is about 26-27 for a WR, 24 for a RB.

which makes me think that selling your studs at peak trade-value maybe is not that great of a rule: their scoring-value for the rest of their careers may well be worth a lot more than what you're getting back. so unless you get great/crazy value, might as well ride your studs into the sunset. if you have a player that just had the (likely) best season of their careers (mccaffrey, thomas) and someone thinks they're going to produce like that for the next three seasons and makes you an offer you can't refuse, by all means sell! but how many times does that happen?

also, easy to say "sell someone at peak value", but you need a buyer too, and why do i have to spend a top price for a player that's going to decrease in value? might do it if in a short win-now window but otherwise you're better off spending for someone whose value will increase.

Good post. I think selling at peak value is fine in theory, but as you noted, it doesn't necessarily mean you're making your team better. Ultimately, the goal is to win leagues not ADP titles.

You could trade Thomas right now and get back a ton of upside on paper, but those players could easily end up doing nothing long-term and make your team worse. Thomas is looking like a HOF-type of talent at WR. Even without Drew Brees, I'd still bet on him.

I'm more inclined to sell high on RBs at peak value because of the volatility and injuries that come with the position, but stud WRs can produce for a long, long time and help you win titles. Julio Jones is 31 and can still post WR1 numbers. A healthy AJ Green, who turns 32 in July, is a threat to put up WR1 numbers. Larry Fitzgerald a few years ago was still providing great value. Sure, you could've sold all of these players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think.

AJ Green has been a black hole on fantasy rosters for a few years now

[moishetreats]

I know this question is position specific but, if as a general rule its best to trade away your studs at peak value, in other words, trade them too early rather than too late, at what age do we consider doing that?

For me, "peak value" is not about age but rather about a big drop-off. When I sense a big drop-off coming (e.g., James Conner one year ago, Keenan Allen and Aaron Jones this year, Devonta Freeman after 2016), then I sell -- even at a bit of a "loss" since I believe both those players' production AND value are going to decline.

On the other hand, even if a player has "peaked" by value, if I believe that their production will still remain strong -- even though lesser -- then I'm inclined to hold them unless I get a can't-pass-up offer. Guys like Julio Jones, Joe Mixon (whose value, I believe, has peaked), and Zach Ertz are examples: I don't think that they'll fall off the proverbial cliff.

Obviously, I'll trade any player at any time if the offer is right. But I seek to trade a player not based on a value peak because of age but rather because of an anticipated drop in production.

[Orenthal Shames]

Peak sell windows are so short, especially WR.

Most leagues chase youth. It provides tremendous buying opportunities, but makes it damn hard to sell productive vets.

I couldn't get more than an early 2nd for the likes of Keenan Allen. At that rate, those types will likely retire on my roster.

As a contender, gimme the production > potential upside all day.

[murphysxm]

As a rule, I think this forum trades talent away far too soon. I am still enjoying my Julio Jones stock I obtained for a late 1st 3 years ago.....

Edit: For giggles I went back to see who he took with the pick, the answer is John Ross.

[FiremanEd]

trade-wise, it seems being 27 means you're just about to need mobility aid these days, and if you're a RB and on the third year of your rookie contract you already start to smell funny.

so yeah, peak trade-value is about 26-27 for a WR, 24 for a RB.

which makes me think that selling your studs at peak trade-value maybe is not that great of a rule: their scoring-value for the rest of their careers may well be worth a lot more than what you're getting back. so unless you get great/crazy value, might as well ride your studs into the sunset. if you have a player that just had the (likely) best season of their careers (mccaffrey, thomas) and someone thinks they're going to produce like that for the next three seasons and makes you an offer you can't refuse, by all means sell! but how many times does that happen?

also, easy to say "sell someone at peak value", but you need a buyer too, and why do i have to spend a top price for a player that's going to decrease in value? might do it if in a short win-now window but otherwise you're better off spending for someone whose value will increase.

Good post. I think selling at peak value is fine in theory, but as you noted, it doesn't necessarily mean you're making your team better. Ultimately, the goal is to win leagues not ADP titles.

You could trade Thomas right now and get back a ton of upside on paper, but those players could easily end up doing nothing long-term and make your team worse. Thomas is looking like a HOF-type of talent at WR. Even without Drew Brees, I'd still bet on him.

I'm more inclined to sell high on RBs at peak value because of the volatility and injuries that come with the position, but stud WRs can produce for a long, long time and help you win titles. Julio Jones is 31 and can still post WR1 numbers. A healthy AJ Green, who turns 32 in July, is a threat to put up WR1 numbers. Larry Fitzgerald a few years ago was still providing great value. Sure, you could've sold all of these players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think.

AJ Green has been a black hole on fantasy rosters for a few years now

Great insight, but please read the bolded again. Key words are ‘healthy’ and ‘threat’. Yes, an injured guy not playing isn’t helpful to you. Noted, but a poorly quoted rebuttal about nothing.

‘Young’ to me would be:
QB: 20-26
RB: 20-24
WR: 20-25
TE: 20-25

Passing those thresholds doesn’t mean a value decline, but just that they lose the label of being ‘young’. Selling may not be the best move for your team given you lose many prime years. The balancing act of winning leagues isn’t just selling for peak value, but selling when the value obtained > future production and you can extend you’re teams winning window. That’s usually after the peak moment, but before everyone’s caught on and value is already lost.

[Jigga94]

Young | Middle Age | Old

QB: 20-29 | 30-34 | 35+
RB: 20-24 | 25-26 | 27+
WR: 20-25 | 26-28 | 29+
TE: 20-27 | 28-31 | 32+

I like this. Might bump the TE ranges down some but there are so few of them that are good and those are he ones who are typically hitting their stride in "Middle age" and last until old

[Orenthal Shames]

As a rule, I think this forum trades talent away far too soon. I am still enjoying my Julio Jones stock I obtained for a late 1st 3 years ago.....

Edit: For giggles I went back to see who he took with the pick, the answer is John Ross.

[TheNuts]

Good post. I think selling at peak value is fine in theory, but as you noted, it doesn't necessarily mean you're making your team better. Ultimately, the goal is to win leagues not ADP titles.

You could trade Thomas right now and get back a ton of upside on paper, but those players could easily end up doing nothing long-term and make your team worse. Thomas is looking like a HOF-type of talent at WR. Even without Drew Brees, I'd still bet on him.

I'm more inclined to sell high on RBs at peak value because of the volatility and injuries that come with the position, but stud WRs can produce for a long, long time and help you win titles. Julio Jones is 31 and can still post WR1 numbers. A healthy AJ Green, who turns 32 in July, is a threat to put up WR1 numbers. Larry Fitzgerald a few years ago was still providing great value. Sure, you could've sold all of these players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think.

AJ Green has been a black hole on fantasy rosters for a few years now

Great insight, but please read the bolded again. Key words are ‘healthy’ and ‘threat’. Yes, an injured guy not playing isn’t helpful to you. Noted, but a poorly quoted rebuttal about nothing.

‘Young’ to me would be:
QB: 20-26
RB: 20-24
WR: 20-25
TE: 20-25

Passing those thresholds doesn’t mean a value decline, but just that they lose the label of being ‘young’. Selling may not be the best move for your team given you lose many prime years. The balancing act of winning leagues isn’t just selling for peak value, but selling when the value obtained > future production and you can extend you’re teams winning window. That’s usually after the peak moment, but before everyone’s caught on and value is already lost.

You said Sure you could have sold all of those players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think, which would include Green. Selling Green years ago would have been the best move by far. I'm not saying it invalidates your point, just that Green shouldn't be included

[Orenthal Shames]

Good post. I think selling at peak value is fine in theory, but as you noted, it doesn't necessarily mean you're making your team better. Ultimately, the goal is to win leagues not ADP titles.

You could trade Thomas right now and get back a ton of upside on paper, but those players could easily end up doing nothing long-term and make your team worse. Thomas is looking like a HOF-type of talent at WR. Even without Drew Brees, I'd still bet on him.

I'm more inclined to sell high on RBs at peak value because of the volatility and injuries that come with the position, but stud WRs can produce for a long, long time and help you win titles. Julio Jones is 31 and can still post WR1 numbers. A healthy AJ Green, who turns 32 in July, is a threat to put up WR1 numbers. Larry Fitzgerald a few years ago was still providing great value. Sure, you could've sold all of these players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think.

AJ Green has been a black hole on fantasy rosters for a few years now

The balancing act of winning leagues isn’t just selling for peak value, but selling when the value obtained > future production and you can extend you’re teams winning window. That’s usually after the peak moment, but before everyone’s caught on and value is already lost.

Perfect response

[FiremanEd]

As a rule, I think this forum trades talent away far too soon. I am still enjoying my Julio Jones stock I obtained for a late 1st 3 years ago.....

Edit: For giggles I went back to see who he took with the pick, the answer is John Ross.

I’d need some additional data on this to validate whether it is accurate or not. There are Julio Jones examples, and then there are Lev Bell, AJG, TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffrey, Dez Bryant, DT, etc. etc. where you would seemingly have come out just fine, depending on the feedback. Referencing Julio Jones is more exception than rule. I would be interested to know where the ‘forum majority’ falls overall on being wrong vs right on the ‘sell to soon’ line. It very well may be...in just not so sure one outlier is swaying this opinion in the moment.

[murphysxm]

As a rule, I think this forum trades talent away far too soon. I am still enjoying my Julio Jones stock I obtained for a late 1st 3 years ago.....

Edit: For giggles I went back to see who he took with the pick, the answer is John Ross.

I’d need some additional data on this to validate whether it is accurate or not. There are Julio Jones examples, and then there are Lev Bell, AJG, TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffrey, Dez Bryant, DT, etc. etc. where you would seemingly have come out just fine, depending on the feedback. Referencing Julio Jones is more exception than rule. I would be interested to know where the ‘forum majority’ falls overall on being wrong vs right on the ‘sell to soon’ line. It very well may be...in just not so sure one outlier is swaying this opinion in the moment.

I wasn't posting to validate anything. It is just my opinion that most owners would rather sell too early, than hold on too long. For me personally, I would rather give a draft pick for he last 2-3 years of a top tier players career. Based on what I read on this forum, that is the minoroty opinion, which is fine. I am not sure it is a wrong vs right thing, but more a philosophy.