What is considered young?

[DLF3000]

Peak sell windows are so short, especially WR.

Most leagues chase youth. It provides tremendous buying opportunities, but makes it damn hard to sell productive vets.

I couldn't get more than an early 2nd for the likes of Keenan Allen. At that rate, those types will likely retire on my roster.

As a contender, gimme the production > potential upside all day.

Yep, learned this the hard way with Larry Fitzgerald, the last player from my original draft on my team - traded him for peanuts, would have preferred just letting him retire on my roster.

Having learned that, that's now what I'm going to do with Edelman - he stays till the cliff. No more deep discounts for proven, wildly productive, "old" vets for anybody, certainly not whlie my team is a contender.

On the flipside, I won't ever pay a 1st or more again for an "old" but wildly productive vets either. Age ~30 historically productive receivers for 2 1sts was offered to me this year, but... hell to the no - either bring down your price or he can retire on your rebuilding/non-playoff roster.

So yeah, great vets are really a lose-lose-push situation, depending on team status. Even the ideal scenario - the push - is them retiring on your contending team. Just the way it is.

As for what's considered "young," I will also add that a completely rebuilding team might not want anyone in trade who's even 24-25. Which is crazy. It's fine, let them burn their league dues for another three years as the busts mount at light speed rates.

[Cameron Giles]

You said Sure you could have sold all of those players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think, which would include Green. Selling Green years ago would have been the best move by far. I'm not saying it invalidates your point, just that Green shouldn't be included

That's not true. Again, Green is healthy, in an offense that was 6th in passing attempts last year, and will likely still be playing from behind this year, and they upgraded at QB. It's entirely possible that if Green is healthy, he has a WR1 season and can help you win a league.

I'm not saying that you can't sell studs and come out on top in trades. I'm simply saying that selling elite, proven production for future production and young assets is very risky. You are immediately conceding present production and hoping that it will even out in the years moving forward.

[Orenthal Shames]

As a rule, I think this forum trades talent away far too soon. I am still enjoying my Julio Jones stock I obtained for a late 1st 3 years ago.....

Edit: For giggles I went back to see who he took with the pick, the answer is John Ross.

I’d need some additional data on this to validate whether it is accurate or not. There are Julio Jones examples, and then there are Lev Bell, AJG, TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffrey, Dez Bryant, DT, etc. etc. where you would seemingly have come out just fine, depending on the feedback. Referencing Julio Jones is more exception than rule. I would be interested to know where the ‘forum majority’ falls overall on being wrong vs right on the ‘sell to soon’ line. It very well may be...in just not so sure one outlier is swaying this opinion in the moment.

As with everything dynasty, I'm sure it's league specific. I've known this general sentiment to be true in my league though as well. Every player has acquisition cost rollercoasters, some are just more dramatic than others.

I've bought and sold the same players multiple times throughout the years,
depending on their price points. Brandin Cooks is the most recent one of these players. I bought him "cheap" after he left NO for NE, sold prior to 2019 during the draft, and just re-bought for pennies on the dollar in comparison.

I follow where I see value.

[Cameron Giles]

The balancing act of winning leagues isn’t just selling for peak value, but selling when the value obtained > future production and you can extend you’re teams winning window. That’s usually after the peak moment, but before everyone’s caught on and value is already lost.

Agreed.

I'm perfectly fine owning someone like Thomas and losing out on trade value if I'm winning money with him during that time, or if the value I'm obtaining is simply not worth losing his production. Nobody should ever feel like they have to sell because their player is 27, 28, or 29 and slipping in ADP lists.

I understand wanting to sell in prime form, but it's never that cut and dry.

[moishetreats]

I'm not saying that you can't sell studs and come out on top in trades. I'm simply saying that selling elite, proven production for future production and young assets is very risky. You are immediately conceding present production and hoping that it will even out in the years moving forward.

Not necessarily. You could be trading studs, coming out on trades, and then using those assets to acquire other studs.

As one successful example, I "undersold" on D. Freeman after his second big season -- with 1.02 being the centerpiece in return -- and then used that pick to acquire M. Gordon (less valued than Freeman at the time). You don't only have to sell studs for young assets. That's what's missing, I think, from your equation.

[Cameron Giles]

Not necessarily. You could be trading studs, coming out on trades, and then using those assets to acquire other studs.

As one successful example, I "undersold" on D. Freeman after his second big season -- with 1.02 being the centerpiece in return -- and then used that pick to acquire M. Gordon (less valued than Freeman at the time). You don't only have to sell studs for young assets. That's what's missing, I think, from your equation.

1.02 is a young asset though. You absolutely can acquire assets and wheel and deal, but you're still creating more margin for error than simply keeping elite production to win leagues.

I won't argue that different results don't exist, I'm just saying that you don't have to feel inclined to move an elite WR at age 27 or 28, just because you might miss out on trade value if you don't.

[Jigga94]

You said Sure you could have sold all of those players years ago, but it's not as productive as you think, which would include Green. Selling Green years ago would have been the best move by far. I'm not saying it invalidates your point, just that Green shouldn't be included

That's not true. Again, Green is healthy, in an offense that was 6th in passing attempts last year, and will likely still be playing from behind this year, and they upgraded at QB. It's entirely possible that if Green is healthy, he has a WR1 season and can help you win a league.

I'm not saying that you can't sell studs and come out on top in trades. I'm simply saying that selling elite, proven production for future production and young assets is very risky. You are immediately conceding present production and hoping that it will even out in the years moving forward.

Not arguing that AJG can't have a productive season (plus another or 3 more honestly), but if you had traded him a year or 2 ago, you could definitely buy back cheaper now. I think he's something like WR50 in ADP. That's start up of course, but his value is wayyy lower than it was a year or 2 ago, which I think was his point.

I agree with your general statement though that selling an ELITE player because they are a few years away from being "old" is probably not a good move. Hindsight is 20:20 and in AJGs case, it would've been smart to move him. Julio on the other hand, not at all

[Cameron Giles]

Not arguing that AJG can't have a productive season (plus another or 3 more honestly), but if you had traded him a year or 2 ago, you could definitely buy back cheaper now. I think he's something like WR50 in ADP. That's start up of course, but his value is wayyy lower than it was a year or 2 ago, which I think was his point.

I agree with your general statement though that selling an ELITE player because they are a few years away from being "old" is probably not a good move. Hindsight is 20:20 and in AJGs case, it would've been smart to move him. Julio on the other hand, not at all

Yeah, I'm not arguing against that at all. I'm just saying that selling high at peak value isn't something you have to do in dynasty to win. It really just depends on whether you acquire pieces that are worth giving up elite production now and going forward.

[moishetreats]

Not necessarily. You could be trading studs, coming out on trades, and then using those assets to acquire other studs.

As one successful example, I "undersold" on D. Freeman after his second big season -- with 1.02 being the centerpiece in return -- and then used that pick to acquire M. Gordon (less valued than Freeman at the time). You don't only have to sell studs for young assets. That's what's missing, I think, from your equation.

1.02 is a young asset though. You absolutely can acquire assets and wheel and deal, but you're still creating more margin for error than simply keeping elite production to win leagues.

I won't argue that different results don't exist, I'm just saying that you don't have to feel inclined to move an elite WR at age 27 or 28, just because you might miss out on trade value if you don't.

We agree. My first post in this thread said the same thing (i.e., don't sell an asset based on age but rather based on if/when you think a big drop-off is coming).

What I'm suggesting is that trading away at peak value does not necessarily mean getting young assets (your original statement that I am responding to). For instance, I would willingly move, say, Chris Godwin for Julio Jones++. Godwin is at peak value, and I think that he is going to drop a tier or two (just my take; feel free to insert a different player for Godwin). So I'd eagerly move Godwin now for Julio + everything else that I could get. I think that I'll have better production from Jones over the next couple of years PLUS everything else that I gain in the trade.

[sugbear65]

I think mileage and injury history is more important than age. Some guys are petering out into the downside of their career at 27, while others can be just hitting their stride.