For those who find sustained success in leagues

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
TheNuts
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For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby TheNuts » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:19 pm

Do you do best when you are constantly trading and finding value? Or do you do best by mostly drafting players and developing them?
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby JFever » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:47 pm

Short answer is both. Not one or the other.
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:17 am

get the best any way you can, why limit yourself at all ever? I would say mostly from trading and playing the WW, I rarely draft well... hopefully this year I buck the trend
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:58 am

I almost never draft unless I have an early pick or a player I feel is a great value.

The hit rate is so much lower than the market takes into account for draft picks (everyone thinks they drafted THE bust proof player lol). That and It's just too easy to buy proven production by moving picks for startable assets. Would you rather have a 20% shot at a dollar, or just take 75 cents...hell, sometimes during rookie fever ppl will pay you 2 dollars for a 20% chance at 1 dollar lol.

The answer is trading and I esp like to buy low on young assets that other owners have become impatient with.
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Ekeler, Gurley, David Johnson, Hunt, Sony, Mckinnon, Love, Guice
WR: AJB, Hilton, AJG, Hollywood Brown, Laviska, Antonio Brown, Washington, Renfrow
TE: Kittle, Gesicki

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby TheNuts » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:01 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:58 am
I almost never draft unless I have an early pick or a player I feel is a great value.

The hit rate is so much lower than the market takes into account for draft picks (everyone thinks they drafted the bust proof player lol). That and It's just too easy to buy proven production by moving picks for startable assets.

The answer is trading and I esp like to buy low on young assets that other owners have become inpatient with.
Trading is definitely where I have found most of my success. I actually do pretty well with late seconds and thirds for their respective value. When it comes to non early firsts, which I rarely ever have an early first, I think I usually miss on those picks. I also find my gems on the WW or in vet drafts, although running back gems allude me. I pretty much have to buy a rb cheap before he blows up to have any success with them.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby dlf_mikeh » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:25 am

It's mostly a combo of both.

I studied the percentages of rookie players who retain value over their careers and found that the top 6 are usually around 66% successful, the second 6 are around 30-40%, 2nd round 10-20%, third round 5-10%, and the 4th round is ~1-5%. Because I know the drop offs are so huge, I usually draft players in those rounds for the sole purpose of trading them immediately during their rookie year, and I will move up into the top 6 every season just to assure myself one of those guys.

I also try not to consolidate, usually the opposite. If I trade away a player, I try to get two in return. I used to consolidate to get the guy I wanted, but if that didn't pan out it would set my team back a full season. Now if I trade away 2 players or picks, I try to get 2 or 3 back in return.
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Overachiever77 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:09 am

Both. I try to find a complete balance. I generally try to trade away my stars too early rather than too late. I look to acquire prospects I believe in and 1st round picks. The draft is mostly a lottery so the more tickets you have the better. And while I do try to accumulate draft picks, I will trade them away in-season when I’m in a good spot to win a championship.
10 team, .5 PPR dynasty, 25 man roster plus 5 rookie/2nd year taxi
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2,WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1K, 1DST

QB: Watson, Stafford, Darnold
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Hunt, Kamara, Sanders, Dobbins, Swift, Harris
WR: Nuk, Julio, Evans, Cooper, C. Davis, Deebo, McLaurin, Jeudy, Ruggs, Edwards, V. Jefferson
TE: Ertz, Njoku, Hooper, Gesicki, Trautman, Bryant
K: Koo
D/ST: New Orleans, TB, IND
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:37 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:25 am
I also try not to consolidate, usually the opposite. If I trade away a player, I try to get two in return. I used to consolidate to get the guy I wanted, but if that didn't pan out it would set my team back a full season. Now if I trade away 2 players or picks, I try to get 2 or 3 back in return.
Do you find that you run out of roster space when you're usually adding more players than you give?

I ask because I'm the opposite - I love to have a lot of churnable space to add free agents very often. I hate the feeling of not wanting to drop anyone when there's a free agent I suddenly want.
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby TheNuts » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:07 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:37 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:25 am
I also try not to consolidate, usually the opposite. If I trade away a player, I try to get two in return. I used to consolidate to get the guy I wanted, but if that didn't pan out it would set my team back a full season. Now if I trade away 2 players or picks, I try to get 2 or 3 back in return.
Do you find that you run out of roster space when you're usually adding more players than you give?

I ask because I'm the opposite - I love to have a lot of churnable space to add free agents very often. I hate the feeling of not wanting to drop anyone when there's a free agent I suddenly want.
I am in this situation right now in my 14 team league. I have some very meh pieces on my roster, but they are solid depth pieces for a 14 team league. I don't want to drop them just in case for some random diamond in the rough rookie, but it would be nice to have the room.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Mephistopheles » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:38 am

For me it's probably 95% drafting and WW, 5% trading.
The formula I've used is to build with 1st rounders, find gems (DJ, Diggs, Kupp, Tyreek, Ekeler, Lindsay, as examples from recent years) in the latter part of the 2nd round and later, which kind of speeds it up, and then fill depth and small holes with smaller trades. It plays to my strength of watching college football and knowing these players, especially at smaller schools, and avoids my "weakness", which is a strong disinterest in haggling over value.
What I've found is that, in a lot of leagues, people don't want to pay for top 25 or 50 players because they either always foresee a decline or believe the player's season was a fluke. I had a horrible time trying to sell DJ after his 500+ point season when he was the #1 or #2 asset in most rankings, DeAndre after 2018, and the same issue with Aaron Jones now.
Usually if I draft a guy he's on my team for at least 3-4 years unless he washes out or I decide to rebuild and can get a better value. Have 3 leagues where I drafted Julio, and couple where I drafted D-Hop, I held Steve Smith his whole career in one league.
Drafts are fun, especially where I can misdirect people about whom I'm targeting. Watch 'em scramble to trade in front of me...then draft the player I really wanted. I did that with a SF draft earlier this year with Anthony Gordon. The 3 picks in front of me got traded and one guy took A. Gordon, which allowed the player I really wanted to fall to my pick.
PSA - Haggling is NOT the same as negotiating.

From the home office in Grand Rapids, MI, the Top 5 signs you suck as a trade partner (and probably as a human being)

5. You can name or fabricate 5 risks on every player not on your team.
4. You always respond that you don't value another team's players as highly as they do.
3. You steer conversations away from ADP or any other form of consensus or rankings to gauge trade value.
2. Your trade strategy centers around seeing where someone's at on a player or that "it's just a first offer".
1. Your trade offers are rejected without counter or outright ignored.
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Blueboy » Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:11 pm

Honestly, the leagues I have the most success are those where I sell all my picks every year, roster almost entirely veterans with 1-2 years left according to consensus, and repeatedly sell out to compete. Barring huge injury sprees, I take home money in those leagues every year. Guaranteed that annually there are guys who are desperate to sell their vets, like Brady or Brees or Gurley or Bell or Julio or Ertz or etc., and you can buy them cheap and win.

But, I hate building that way and can only stomach doing so in two (of seven) leagues. Everywhere else, I hedge bets by overpaying for "my guys," try to keep young, and build my teams based on "identity" that's basically entirely self-imposed. It's way more fun, but I've also found it to be much less efficient. The team in my sig is one of my worst teams, and it's never really managed to compete, but it's my favorite.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Watson, LJax, Love, Smith
RB: Barkley, Chubb D. Evans, Snell, I. Smith, McKissic, Perine, Ahmed
WR: DJ Moore, Lamb, Hollywood, Hardman, V. Jefferson, P. Williams, Duvernay, Agholor, Cephus
TE: H. Henry, Irv Smith, OJH

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Mephistopheles » Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:57 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:11 pm
Honestly, the leagues I have the most success are those where I sell all my picks every year, roster almost entirely veterans with 1-2 years left according to consensus, and repeatedly sell out to compete. Barring huge injury sprees, I take home money in those leagues every year. Guaranteed that annually there are guys who are desperate to sell their vets, like Brady or Brees or Gurley or Bell or Julio or Ertz or etc., and you can buy them cheap and win.

But, I hate building that way and can only stomach doing so in two (of seven) leagues. Everywhere else, I hedge bets by overpaying for "my guys," try to keep young, and build my teams based on "identity" that's basically entirely self-imposed. It's way more fun, but I've also found it to be much less efficient. The team in my sig is one of my worst teams, and it's never really managed to compete, but it's my favorite.
I tried this several years ago. What I found was that (a) the season was not as fun because I enjoy the hell out of drafting, and (b) one or two injuries can really bleep you up. I mean, set you back and make you donate for five or six or more seasons bleep you up. You can't get out from under those guys and you don't have picks to replenish. But that's just my experience. I can respect if others have had a different experience with it. Just to say, that's the major downside.
PSA - Haggling is NOT the same as negotiating.

From the home office in Grand Rapids, MI, the Top 5 signs you suck as a trade partner (and probably as a human being)

5. You can name or fabricate 5 risks on every player not on your team.
4. You always respond that you don't value another team's players as highly as they do.
3. You steer conversations away from ADP or any other form of consensus or rankings to gauge trade value.
2. Your trade strategy centers around seeing where someone's at on a player or that "it's just a first offer".
1. Your trade offers are rejected without counter or outright ignored.
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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby wickerkat1212 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:05 pm

All of it.

Drafting—very important to pick well, and move up or down to get your guy, there are no reaches. It's tricky if you're constantly in the playoffs, but that just means you need to look at the 1.10-1.12 differently. You may not get stud RBs there. BPA. It's better to take the #1 QB there, or the #3 WR, than the #8 RB IMO. But get your guys—have fun.

Trading—also important to keep an eye on your roster, look for opportunities, trade when you have extreme depth, and keep tweaking your roster, aware of RB situations, and depth charts, getting younger if you can. I do tend to grind players into dust instead of trading at their peak, or when they are just starting to get old.

WW—also very important. I've gotten some amazing guys off the WW, that have turned into studs, or been replacement players (or depth) when my guys get hurt. I've picked up guys like Chark, Jimmy G, Waller, Drake, Conner, Witten, Ian Thomas, Jonnu, Balt Def, Cohen, etc. Some guys I'll hold for years, then flip for a profit.

I do a lot of research, especially in the off-season. I have my guys for the draft, I keep players on watch lists, I hit Rotoworld, here, and make trades, hit the WW, as needed.
D3:
QB—Allen, Lamar, Big Ben
RB—Zeke, Henry, Cohen, Mostert, Evans (R), Coleman, Pollard, McFarland
WR—MThomas, Diggs, Lamb (R), Claypool, Lazard, Hardman, Beasley, Coutee
TE—Tonyan, Jonnu, Graham
PK—Lutz
DEF—Ravens

D4:
QB—Watson, Stafford, Big Ben, Alex Smith
RB—Conner, David & Duke Johnson, Edmonds, Cohen, Breida
WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeudy (R), Jefferson (R), Jones, Jeffery, Amendola
TE—LThomas, Smith, Reed, Kmet, Trautman
PK—Bass
DEF—Bears

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:52 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:25 am
It's mostly a combo of both.

I studied the percentages of rookie players who retain value over their careers and found that the top 6 are usually around 66% successful, the second 6 are around 30-40%, 2nd round 10-20%, third round 5-10%, and the 4th round is ~1-5%. Because I know the drop offs are so huge, I usually draft players in those rounds for the sole purpose of trading them immediately during their rookie year, and I will move up into the top 6 every season just to assure myself one of those guys.

I also try not to consolidate, usually the opposite. If I trade away a player, I try to get two in return. I used to consolidate to get the guy I wanted, but if that didn't pan out it would set my team back a full season. Now if I trade away 2 players or picks, I try to get 2 or 3 back in return.
I 100% agree with the "do not consolidate" mantra, I did that for years when I first started and it rarely worked. My 2 biggest consolidations were to get Luck and DJ :crazy: , well never again I say!!! The last few years I started trying to get as many pieces as I could and I like my teams a lot better.

I disagree somewhat with the rookie picks, I think nailing the later picks can be great and I wouldn't always necessarily be looking to flip. A guy in my league has absolutely destroyed the 2nd round (Juju, Sutton, Ridley, Lock, Trubisky), and his overall hit rate to draft a starter in the 2nd round has been 63%. Another owner has drafted Kamara, Boyd, Hunter Henry, Josh Allen, Deebo Samuel, Will Fuller in the 2nd (45% overall hit rate for a starter) and James Conner, Cooper Kupp, Terry Mac, Drake in the 3rd (30% overall hit rate for a starter). Those are some great success stories, obviously some others have drafted poorly. But I think it all depends on the type of talent. If you're getting a guy with a great profile then I'd say keep them, whether they were top 6 pick or not doesn't really make a huge difference to me. On the other hand, if you had drafted some 5th-6th round RB in the 2nd then I'd say flipping is probably a great idea.

For me, it's so much easier to have sustained success when your team is already good. Your trading partners and possibilities are endless as you can trade for productive vets or trade for youth. You can draft for need and not feel like having to trade up or reach. You can keep your rookie picks or sell them, doesn't matter. When you're rebuilding, I feel like you're more restricted in the types of moves you can make.

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Re: For those who find sustained success in leagues

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:02 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:57 pm
Blueboy wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:11 pm
Honestly, the leagues I have the most success are those where I sell all my picks every year, roster almost entirely veterans with 1-2 years left according to consensus, and repeatedly sell out to compete.
I tried this several years ago. What I found was that (a) the season was not as fun because I enjoy the hell out of drafting, and (b) one or two injuries can really bleep you up. I mean, set you back and make you donate for five or six or more seasons bleep you up.
We have an owner who has been using this strategy for the past several years. Constantly trading his current and future draft picks away for older players. He's consistently finished near the bottom of the standings annually using this strategy. It turned into somewhat of a Catch-22 situation for him as everyone wanted to trade for his picks since they generally tended to be near the top of the draft order. Then the players he traded for would age-out, retire, decline in performance, etc... and that left him with no resources to retool his squad aside from the waiver-wire. Now his team is in pretty bad shape, and completely unable to compete.

My philosophy is roughly a 90% Draft, 10% Trade/WW. This is primarily because I've had good luck drafting more often than not (Hakeem Butler was a whiff in 2019 :wall: ). Also, the league in general isn't the most trade friendly. There's 3 or 4 owners that I can work with pretty easily, and we'll toss ideas back and forth if we're looking to acquire/move a player. But a number of owners either overvalue their own players, or aren't confident in their abilities to assess value and fear they're getting fleeced; so they're more likely than not to just reject a proposal and not counter. Then there are a few owners that just never make trades. Not sure why, maybe their philosophy is to build 100% through the draft. For those owners any offer I send was generally a black hole. Offer goes out, never to be accepted, rejected, countered, or acknowledged. Radio silence.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: R. Wilson, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, G. Edwards, A. Dillon, J. Jackson
WR: C. Godwin, D. Johnson, M. Gallup, S. Watkins, P. Campbell, J. Reynolds, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, H. Bryant, A. Trautman
14 Team, No-PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, D. Brees, T. Tagovailoa
RB: D. Cook, M. Sanders, S. Michel, L. Murray, J. Hasty, E. Benjamin
WR: C. Ridley, D. Parker, D. Mims, B. Edwards, Q. Cephus
TE: D. Waller, J. Smith


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