2021 Draft Pick Valuation - Discounted or Pumped Up?

[Johnny Canuck]

For example, I was offered four (mid to late) 2021 1sts for Adams. I declined, but had this exact same trade been offered to me last offseason, I prob would have taken it, because everyone “knew” that the 2020 class looked special, and there was hype. So either the prospects would be tantalizing, or even if I didn’t like the players projected for those picks, I likely could trade them for a profit pretty easily.

I haven’t seen the 2021 class getting any hype about it being special, or having a ton of depth, or any of the cliches we usually hear a yr out.

Feel like unless you get a top 4 pick, ppl would be better off stocking up on 2nds due to the potentially massive uncertainty after the top tier.

[Cameron Giles]

There might not even be a 2020/21 college season, or at best it'll be a non-traditional one. Scouting could be all over the place...even more than normal. This could push talent that would of been in the 1st down to the 2nd simply due to the lack of tape on certain prospects - increasing the value of 2nd rounders (although it appears a touch early to speak on the depth of the class). As a loose example, there is no chance Miles Sanders would of been a 1st rounder without his final season. Same thing with Aiyuk/Pittman/etc.

This doesn't make much sense to me. So, if the value of 2nd rounders increases because you might get a 1st round talent there, then doesn't that mean the value of a 1st increases, because you might incorrectly select someone who wouldn't normally be there? You mentioned Miles Sanders....what if someone drafted Hakeem Butler in the 1st?

To me, the argument you're unknowingly making is that it will be tougher to do your homework on players without a season, which in turn will increase the risk of using your pick on a rookie, because it could lead to a higher bust rate than usual.

Overall, I don't think there will be a difference in how these picks are valued. I certainly don't see them being pumped up because of a shortened season.

[Johnny Canuck]

There might not even be a 2020/21 college season, or at best it'll be a non-traditional one. Scouting could be all over the place...even more than normal. This could push talent that would of been in the 1st down to the 2nd simply due to the lack of tape on certain prospects - increasing the value of 2nd rounders (although it appears a touch early to speak on the depth of the class). As a loose example, there is no chance Miles Sanders would of been a 1st rounder without his final season. Same thing with Aiyuk/Pittman/etc.

This doesn't make much sense to me. So, if the value of 2nd rounders increases because you might get a 1st round talent there, then doesn't that mean the value of a 1st increases, because you might incorrectly select someone who wouldn't normally be there? You mentioned Miles Sanders....what if someone drafted Hakeem Butler in the 1st?

To me, the argument you're unknowingly making is that it will be tougher to do your homework on players without a season, which in turn will increase the risk of using your pick on a rookie, because it could lead to a higher bust rate than usual.

Overall, I don't think there will be a difference in how these picks are valued. I certainly don't see them being pumped up because of a shortened season.

Don’t think you read my post correctly. I wasn’t unknowingly making that argument, that essentially was one of my arguments for devaluation. Maybe it was my fault and I didn’t write it clear enough, but that was the gist I was going for.

I stated 2021 1sts could be worth less, but 2nds could be worth more due to top talents being overlooked. In theory, yes late round 1sts could increase in value due to talent dropping as well. But I tend to think that even late 1sts are valued higher due to their perceived safety when compared to 2nds, and that risk hasn’t been factored into acquisition cost for 2021 1sts yet.

So yes, you could get a steal with a late first, but the price of the lotto ticket needed to play should match the risk factor and associated decreased chance of hitting.

[FantasyFreak]

I feel like a lot of players would return to college if there is no 2021 season. Guys like Chase, Lawrence etc. would probably declare. It would be an interesting dynamic, as they would be competing vs the 2020 class as well. The 2020 class would have a major advantage over the 2021 rookies, as they will have the next year to prepare and train with their NFL teams, to some degree. They will have all the time in the world to learn the offense. The 2021 class would be hitting reset after a year off from football, in terms of learning an offense.

Strange times.

[Cameron Giles]

Don’t think you read my post correctly. I wasn’t unknowingly making that argument, that essentially was one of my arguments for devaluation. Maybe it was my fault and I didn’t write it clear enough, but that was the gist I was going for.

I stated 2021 1sts could be worth less, but 2nds could be worth more due to top talents being overlooked. In theory, yes late round 1sts could increase in value due to talent dropping as well. But I tend to think that even late 1sts are valued higher due to their perceived safety when compared to 2nds, and that risk hasn’t been factored into acquisition cost for 2021 1sts yet.

So yes, you could get a steal with a late first, but the price of the lotto ticket needed to play should match the risk factor and associated decreased chance of hitting.

Apologies, I glossed over a few things.

I guess I would need examples of top talents who could be overlooked and fall to the 2nd.

I'm looking at this class right now:

Ja'Marr Chase
Rondale Moore
---
Travis Etienne
DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Najee Harris
--
Chuba Hubbard
Tylan Wallace
Kyle Pitts
Kylin Hill?

Without Justyn Ross, those are the notable players. To me, it just seems like if there is a clear-cut top talent, who can become great value in the 2nd, then that player will inevitably end up being in the 1st round of drafts with so many question marks all over.

[StripesOfKC]

Don’t think you read my post correctly. I wasn’t unknowingly making that argument, that essentially was one of my arguments for devaluation. Maybe it was my fault and I didn’t write it clear enough, but that was the gist I was going for.

I stated 2021 1sts could be worth less, but 2nds could be worth more due to top talents being overlooked. In theory, yes late round 1sts could increase in value due to talent dropping as well. But I tend to think that even late 1sts are valued higher due to their perceived safety when compared to 2nds, and that risk hasn’t been factored into acquisition cost for 2021 1sts yet.

So yes, you could get a steal with a late first, but the price of the lotto ticket needed to play should match the risk factor and associated decreased chance of hitting.

Apologies, I glossed over a few things.

I guess I would need examples of top talents who could be overlooked and fall to the 2nd.

I'm looking at this class right now:

Ja'Marr Chase
Rondale Moore
---
Travis Etienne
DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Najee Harris
--
Chuba Hubbard
Tylan Wallace
Kyle Pitts
Kylin Hill?

Without Justyn Ross, those are the notable players. To me, it just seems like if there is a clear-cut top talent, who can become great value in the 2nd, then that player will inevitably end up being in the 1st round of drafts with so many question marks all over.

I'm gonna keep beating the drum on Tarmarrion Terry. Some team will take him late 1st/early 2nd for the burner speed at that size

And Bateman is my number 3 overall so that would be my other nitpick.

From a fantasy perspective I see Friermuth right up there with Pitts. Good TE class

[FantasyFreak]

Looking at the names, the class is looking pretty weak. Rondale Moore is a nice little player, but I am pretty certain in the NFL he's not the focal point of a passing attack. Chase I think could have been the WR 1 this year, but the top few WR's aside, the RB class looks weak to me. I am not particularly excited about the class, and if there is no college ball this year, the draft will be extremely weak, as some players will opt to stay.

[jenkins.math]

Unless your rookie draft is before the actual NFL draft, then I really don't think this matters. The consensus top 9 players drafted this year in FF are 5 RBs drafted in round 1 and 2 and 4 WRs taken in round 1 of the NFL draft.

As much as we like to tout our own scouting abilities the NFL draft dictates our FF draft more than anything.

[moishetreats]

I just had another thought:

If the top-end players declare but others return to college (like @FantasyFreak posited), then first-round picks will INCREASE in value. There will always be top-end (i.e, first-round) talent. But, if there is a huge drop-off after (i.e., second-round and later), then those first-round picks will be much valuable given the huge drop-off.

[FantasyFreak]

So it looks like Kylin Hill won't be playing this year.

https://www.nfl.com/news/miss-state-rb- ... is-changed

[Johnny Canuck]

I guess I would need examples of top talents who could be overlooked and fall to the 2nd.
...
Without Justyn Ross, those are the notable players. To me, it just seems like if there is a clear-cut top talent, who can become great value in the 2nd, then that player will inevitably end up being in the 1st round of drafts with so many question marks all over.

I guess what I'm trying to say (although not so eloquently) is, we don't know what we don't know.

The community has it's current rankings, but how often do rankings from one yr out stay static to the next? I feel like that's pretty rare. Yes, it can happen at the highest tier, but that's usually the limit while everyone else is more fluid. So that gives what, maybe 4 picks you can feel confident about next draft season.

I suppose that previously unknown top tier talents could inevitably be unearthed and end up going in the first round. But if there isn't a CFB season, simply knowing who might emerge from irrelevancy, to top tier, would be like finding a needle in a haystack (but I could also not have the extensive scouting resources that others have).

I have my reservations that these hidden talent type of players would be discovered by a multitude of people, and therefore push their ADP into an early round pick across most drafts. IMO, without a 2020 season, I think it's more likely that the dynasty community sticks to their one yr out rankings, and these potentially unearthed top prospects are are either A) never discovered, or B) discovered, but seen as highly risky, and end up in the 2nd or 3rd round regardless of what a scouting resource says there potential may or may not be.

As far as examples that might move up into the 1st, previous posters have listed some of the prospects they like, but for the most part I personally see these as unknowns, unless I can get a hold of a Delorean and Doc Brown. But basically we'd be losing all risers and fallers we usually get in their predraft season.

These would be players like: Kyler, Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Pittman, Aiyuk, DJ Moore, McLaurin, Hopkins, Miles Sanders, DJ Chark, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel. These guys all rose up draft boards (NFL & rookie draft), as a result of their final CFB season, take that away, and who knows where (or if) they get drafted in the NFL or in dynasty drafts (certainly not as high anyways).

That's my opinion anyways, I could totally be wrong though.

Side note: I was also thinking that anyone that plays in devy leagues would likely have a leg up on the competition in this years draft. Might be good to pick those guys brains a bit more about hidden gems if anyone did want to stock up on picks.

[Johnny Canuck]

I just had another thought:

If the top-end players declare but others return to college (like @FantasyFreak posited), then first-round picks will INCREASE in value. There will always be top-end (i.e, first-round) talent. But, if there is a huge drop-off after (i.e., second-round and later), then those first-round picks will be much valuable given the huge drop-off.

I think you're right Moishe that the top tier will most definitely increase in value (in comparison to other 2021 draft picks) due to the uncertainty in talent afterwards. That said, I don't believe the top tier is that big next year (maybe 4/5 deep at most).

Also, while these top tier picks may increase in value in comparison to other 2021 draft picks (I agree there will be a bigger tier break/gap than previous yrs), I still think that without a CFB season this yr, the risk factor is elevated for these early picks as well.

So while these early picks should be much more expensive to acquire (than usual), when compared to other picks in 2021 (because of the larger tier gap), even these early picks should still be devalued in comparison to the normal acquisition cost of rookie draft picks (if that makes sense).

Think about this, if Bryce Love's final season got cancelled and he went into the draft with his jr yr stats, he prob would of been the 1.01...

These arguments are all supposing CFB is cancelled this yr, or that it's so irregular its insanely difficult to draw any conclusions from it. Hopefully this won't be the case.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I just had another thought:

If the top-end players declare but others return to college (like @FantasyFreak posited), then first-round picks will INCREASE in value. There will always be top-end (i.e, first-round) talent. But, if there is a huge drop-off after (i.e., second-round and later), then those first-round picks will be much valuable given the huge drop-off.

I think you're right Moishe that the top tier will most definitely increase in value (in comparison to other 2021 draft picks) due to the uncertainty in talent afterwards. That said, I don't believe the top tier is that big next year (maybe 4/5 deep at most).

Also, while these top tier picks may increase in value in comparison to other 2021 draft picks (I agree there will be a bigger tier break/gap than previous yrs), I still think that without a CFB season this yr, the risk factor is elevated for these early picks as well.

So while these early picks should be much more expensive to acquire (than usual), when compared to other picks in 2021 (because of the larger tier gap), even these early picks should still be devalued in comparison to the normal acquisition cost of rookie draft picks (if that makes sense).

Think about this, if Bryce Love's final season got cancelled and he went into the draft with his jr yr stats, he prob would of been the 1.01...

These arguments are all supposing CFB is cancelled this yr, or that it's so irregular its insanely difficult to draw any conclusions from it. Hopefully this won't be the case.

...you think Bryce Love would have been the 1.01 over Saquon Barkley?

[Johnny Canuck]

...you think Bryce Love would have been the 1.01 over Saquon Barkley?

In this scenario, Bryce Love would of still been in the draft with Jacobs and Sanders, not Saquon. And yes, he would of been the 1.01 over them.

[OhCruelestRanter]

...you think Bryce Love would have been the 1.01 over Saquon Barkley?

In this scenario, Bryce Love would of still been in the draft with Jacobs and Sanders, not Saquon. And yes, he would of been the 1.01 over them.

Got it, so you mean if he skipped his senior year but still entered the 2019 NFL Draft, not the 2018 one.

I agree that Bryce Love would have probably been the rookie 1.01 if he's in the 2019 Draft and there's no 2018 season; but I'm not sure what the point is. If there's no 2018 season, Bryce Love probably doesn't get hurt and is a more valuable football player to both NFL and dynasty teams.

(Personally I was never much of a fan, I thought he and Ronald Jones were the same guy.)