2021 Draft Pick Valuation - Discounted or Pumped Up?

[Johnny Canuck]

What do we think of the 2021 draft picks (in particular 1st and 2nd rounders) value in a vacuum? I was thinking 1st should be discounted more than previous yrs because:

A) It seems like a top heavy talent pool - decent talent early but the main prizes are Etienne, Chuba, Chase & Ross. After that...we'll see, don't see a ton of "sure things" (as sure as a prospect can be anyways). The talent after pick 8/9ish feels somewhat suspect in comparison to previous years.

B) There might not even be a 2020/21 college season, or at best it'll be a non-traditional one. Scouting could be all over the place...even more than normal. This could push talent that would of been in the 1st down to the 2nd simply due to the lack of tape on certain prospects - increasing the value of 2nd rounders (although it appears a touch early to speak on the depth of the class). As a loose example, there is no chance Miles Sanders would of been a 1st rounder without his final season. Same thing with Aiyuk/Pittman/etc.

C) Seems like this class has more seniors, which are inherently less valuable than say a class filled with jrs, as they'll be older entering the league. There's also been some sites that postulate players that declare early are more valuable.

Sometimes we see things like, "it would take 3 firsts to buy X player" etc. So I thought, as 2021 draft picks are a common form of trade currency maybe there should be a discussion about how this specific years currency should be valued. I see them as a discounted asset due to the various unknowns surrounding the 2020/21 CFB season.

That said, I suppose there's also a chance that some posters feel these picks valuation should be pumped up, so if you have any arguments, feel free to post. Mainly just looking for some discussion on the topic.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

In the current landscape, I would say that the value of first round picks next year is solid but not spectacular. Currently what it boils down to is this - everyone has rose colored goggles from this class that seems to have valuable deep 2nd rounders even in 16 team leagues BUT the uncertainty of a college season drives the value back to baseline. I guess it just kinda depends on the owner too, some are optimistic about COVID being a non-factor in sports, others think that this will be a never ending disaster.
I will say this though. I'm trading most of my future 2nd round picks for an above average return. In most leagues, I finish competitively anywhere from playoff cusp to league champ, those picks in the 2nd round are usually a crapshoot late day 2/day 3 WR/RB. The hit rate on those picks has been about 1 in every 10, if that. If i'm getting top-150 ADP value in return for that kind of uncertainty, I'm taking that all day.

[ericanadian]

Do we think Ross is still going to enter the draft with his spinal issue still up in the air? There are a few guys that I like beyond that group. Tamorrion Terry in Florida State. Journey Brown in Penn State. Will be a strong QB class as well for SF.

[StripesOfKC]

Do we think Ross is still going to enter the draft with his spinal issue still up in the air? There are a few guys that I like beyond that group. Tamorrion Terry in Florida State. Journey Brown in Penn State. Will be a strong QB class as well for SF.

I personally don't. It will be 2022 and there is still an off chance he is done with football (hope not)

[StripesOfKC]

Calling my shot right now that if CFB is played: Kylin Hill will be RB2 in this class behind Etienne. (not a very strong RB class but still)

More I watch him his hard bruising running style reminds me of guys like Guice and Jacobs, and with Leach in Starkville there should be a lot more receiving work for RBs

Tarmarrion Terry will be a 1st round rookie pick next year IMO

Big guy with true burner speed--some team is going to fall in love with him big time

[FantasyFreak]

Do we think Ross is still going to enter the draft with his spinal issue still up in the air? There are a few guys that I like beyond that group. Tamorrion Terry in Florida State. Journey Brown in Penn State. Will be a strong QB class as well for SF.

He'll be lucky to play again.

[Sriracha]

If CFB isnt played theres going to be a lot more uncertainty in the draft which should devalue 1sts and bump up later rounds as top tier talent could fall more than usual.

The lack of playing time could also cause some talented players to stay for another year which could hurt the overall class talent level.

In either case 2021 1sts should be devalued

[Johnny Canuck]

If CFB isnt played theres going to be a lot more uncertainty in the draft which should devalue 1sts and bump up later rounds as top tier talent could fall more than usual.

The lack of playing time could also cause some talented players to stay for another year which could hurt the overall class talent level.

In either case 2021 1sts should be devalued

That's my thought as well. It just doesn't seem reasonable to value the 2021 1sts the same as previous classes. I feel like they're worth about 60%, or maybe 75% at best.

I had completely forgotten about the spinal issues surrounding Ross, so that makes me like this class even less

[OhCruelestRanter]

I'm not trying to acquire 2021 picks because people have been treating them with the same value in my leagues and I suspect we'll see a higher percentage of the top players return to school than we normally do. If they don't get a full season, somebody like Rondale Moore, who had a great freshman year and got hurt as a sophomore, might stay in school. Some of the guys who might make up the meat in a draft like this, like Zamir White, Jaylen Waddle, or Amon Ra St. Brown, might not get that chance to step out of Swift's/Jeudy&Ruggs/Pittman's shadows and decide to return to school.

I will say that your early 1st rounders in superflex are probably safe- Lawrence and Fields would be crazy to go back. So would Chase, frankly. Etienne, Hubbard, and Harris will be in the draft.

[gogobradyarm]

I don't understand what i'm reading. I can imagine being a Sophmore, going into Junior year and then the Draft...being excited, then the Junior year being canceled... If you're that Junior, you're pissed, but 9 times out of 10, the bigger issue is that the player realizes this could have been worse, they could have missed a year of PAY in the NFL.. There is no doubt, there will be discussion of pay reprcussions, possible downsizing of the cap...all of that bleep is going to trickle down from NFL players to their friends in college.

These athletes aren't going to forego entry into the NFL, when they see it flashing before their eyes with Covid 19 canceling entire seasons...these dudes are going to be hungrier than ever for a big money contract. I don't see many players staying in college...god forbid they miss junior season, decide to stay senior year, declare, and then they miss their rookie NFL season due to another wave of covid. These players will feel dumb as bricks if they missed a whole year of pay.

That said, picks are devalued in my league, so i'm trying to acquire as many as possible. I think the draft class will be strong at WR and QB, and a couple good RB in there. Will not be a year to have a bunch of 2nd's like 2020 was though.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I don't understand what i'm reading. I can imagine being a Sophmore, going into Junior year and then the Draft...being excited, then the Junior year being canceled... If you're that Junior, you're pissed, but 9 times out of 10, the bigger issue is that the player realizes this could have been worse, they could have missed a year of PAY in the NFL.. There is no doubt, there will be discussion of pay reprcussions, possible downsizing of the cap...all of that bleep is going to trickle down from NFL players to their friends in college.

These athletes aren't going to forego entry into the NFL, when they see it flashing before their eyes with Covid 19 canceling entire seasons...these dudes are going to be hungrier than ever for a big money contract. I don't see many players staying in college...god forbid they miss junior season, decide to stay senior year, declare, and then they miss their rookie NFL season due to another wave of covid. These players will feel dumb as bricks if they missed a whole year of pay.

That said, picks are devalued in my league, so i'm trying to acquire as many as possible. I think the draft class will be strong at WR and QB, and a couple good RB in there. Will not be a year to have a bunch of 2nd's like 2020 was though.

This is definitely valid as well, but we have no idea what guys like Moore, Brown, and Waddle are going to hear from the draft committee about their stock if it’s a shortened season.

[Sriracha]

I don't understand what i'm reading. I can imagine being a Sophmore, going into Junior year and then the Draft...being excited, then the Junior year being canceled... If you're that Junior, you're pissed, but 9 times out of 10, the bigger issue is that the player realizes this could have been worse, they could have missed a year of PAY in the NFL.. There is no doubt, there will be discussion of pay reprcussions, possible downsizing of the cap...all of that bleep is going to trickle down from NFL players to their friends in college.

These athletes aren't going to forego entry into the NFL, when they see it flashing before their eyes with Covid 19 canceling entire seasons...these dudes are going to be hungrier than ever for a big money contract. I don't see many players staying in college...god forbid they miss junior season, decide to stay senior year, declare, and then they miss their rookie NFL season due to another wave of covid. These players will feel dumb as bricks if they missed a whole year of pay.

That said, picks are devalued in my league, so i'm trying to acquire as many as possible. I think the draft class will be strong at WR and QB, and a couple good RB in there. Will not be a year to have a bunch of 2nd's like 2020 was though.

This is definitely valid as well, but we have no idea what guys like Moore, Brown, and Waddle are going to hear from the draft committee about their stock if it’s a shortened season.

While players like Cee Dee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tua would probably be easy declares without playing their junior seasons... would CEH have declared if he didn't play last season?

How about Kyler Murray, a young player who had been patiently waiting for their opportunity behind a talented player but only had limited film on him before his third year?

Do you think teams knew Michael Pittman would be this good without his senior break out? He probably would've been drafted, but probably not in the early 2nd round.

I can see what you're saying here, but I don't think it's realistic to believe that every talented player is already a known commodity by their sophmore/junior seasons, or that they'll be willing to sacrifice millions of dollars in the form of draft capital just to get to the NFL a year earlier.

[ericanadian]

Will the NCAA let players basically get an extra red shirt year and retain the otherwise lost year of eligibility in the case of a lost or partial season?

[moishetreats]

If 2021 1sts are coming at a discount, I'm buying, and here's why.

1) Y'all make a lot of great points about why they might hold, drop, or increase in value. This has been a great thread to read. We all know, though, that we're guessing. I'm not going to make a massive value shift on picks based entirely on speculation.

2) Let's just say for a moment that the 2021 draft class is weaker than anticipated. When the FANTASY draft rolls around, it won't matter that much. Why? Because owners will think, "Pick 1.04? I can get the #2 RB or the #1 in this class if the guy at 1.02 takes who I think he will." We tend to think LESS in terms of "How good is Player X compared to other draft classes?" Rather, we get excited to get our #1 ranked WR at 1.06. In other words, come spring / summer of 2021, people will be wanting those picks again.

So, if the value has dropped, then I'd be buying.

[Johnny Canuck]

I guess I feel like buying at a depressed price is just buying at their true value (if that makes sense). I don’t know that it would actually be buying low, or allowing you to potentially increase your return on investment.

I agree that most people will likely be looking at the 2021 class and valuing individual picks based on their overall rankings of that class (and not in comparison to other draft classes). So I suppose if your plan was to buy picks then hope to trade them and capitalize on rookie fever then it could be a decent investment.

It doesn’t appear that the price of 2021 picks have dropped though. So I personally would caution the dynasty community to buy them unless you were getting a deal, because it seems like a bubble trade currency.