We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

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AkaliWarrior
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby AkaliWarrior » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:26 pm

actually, the percentages are listed in the link I posted on page 13 of this thread.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:45 am

AkaliWarrior wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:11 pm
ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:53 am The biggest criticism I have of the dominator rating/breakout age/early declare grouping as they are currently used is that every single one of them piggy back on draft position. The problem with this is that draft position is not a static dataset, nor is it an exact stand in for talent level. You’re building a correlation on a correlation and throwing around exact likelihoods of success.
The reason why is because the best predictor of NFL success is draft capital (ie. draft position). Of course there are outliers, so no need to show a list of names that are hall of famers that were selected in the 6th round. But overall, the premise is that if you have 2 WR's with the same breakout age/dominator rating, and player A was drafted in the 2nd round and player B was drafted in the 5th round, there is a much higher chance of success of player A succeeding. The actual percentage has already been calculated and it's listed in the article I gave a few posts above.
The second set of percentages only includes receivers drafted in the top 100, so I’ll reiterate my point about that not meaning anything other than there is an ineffiency in how the NFL evaluates talent. You’d be banking on them never figuring it out and while that has some value, it’s going to be limited to how long the NFL fails to identify the problems with late breakout receivers.

The first set of numbers could be more interesting, but there were several errors in the data where the breakout age for several players was inaccurate including Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings. Someone else posted a more up to date version, but everything was broken out by draft round, which gets back to my earlier issue.
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QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby PPE82 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:36 pm

Bumping with Wentz coming and seeing some flashes during rookie year.

Expectations this year and long term?
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1-2QB, 2-6RB, 2-6WR, 1-5TE
10 starters, 28 roster spots


Kyler Murray, Rudolph, Brissett, Brady
Keaton Mitchell, scrubs
Jefferson, Lamb, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson, Dotson, Josh Palmer, Rashid Shaheed, Toney, Justyn Ross, Metchie, Ronnie Bell
Pitts, Likely
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12 Team, SF, PPR, TEP (2PPR)
1-2QB, 2-5RB, 3-6WR, 1-4TE
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Lawrence, Richardson, Young, Mac Jones, Lance, Brady, Bennnet, Haener
Charbonnet, Strong Jr., scrubs
Wilson, Nacua, Flowers, Downs, Wicks, Renfrow, Ross, Bell, Metchie
Pitts, Woods
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:51 pm

PPE82 wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:36 pm Bumping with Wentz coming and seeing some flashes during rookie year.

Expectations this year and long term?
Is Wentz supposed to be a good thing for WRs?

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby DynastyDabbler » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm

If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
10 team half-ppr 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLX 3IDP
QB: J. Burrow, J. Goff
RB: J. Mixon, K. Walker, T. Etienne, A. Ekeler, Z. Charbonet, K. Miller, T. Bigsby, J. Warren,
WR: J. Chase, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, D. Smith, J. Smith-Njigba, P. Nacua, J. Meyers, T. Palmer,
TE: T. Kelce, T. McBride, C. Okonkwo

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby CGW » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:21 pm

DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
I'd rather see a deep threat than juju.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:28 pm

CGW wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:21 pm
DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
I'd rather see a deep threat than juju.
JuJu is a minus for any WR because he’s going to soak up slot snaps.
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby DynastyDabbler » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:40 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:28 pm
CGW wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:21 pm
DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
I'd rather see a deep threat than juju.
JuJu is a minus for any WR because he’s going to soak up slot snaps.
It seemed to work out okay for Dionte Johnson :think: regardless I’m hoping they bring someone in that can help Pittman out. I think he can be a great WR2
10 team half-ppr 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLX 3IDP
QB: J. Burrow, J. Goff
RB: J. Mixon, K. Walker, T. Etienne, A. Ekeler, Z. Charbonet, K. Miller, T. Bigsby, J. Warren,
WR: J. Chase, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, D. Smith, J. Smith-Njigba, P. Nacua, J. Meyers, T. Palmer,
TE: T. Kelce, T. McBride, C. Okonkwo

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:47 pm

DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
Is there a single WR that performed better with Wentz than other QBs?

We just saw Nelson Agholor look better than he ever has with Derek Carr.

Alshon Jeffery performed noticeably worse with Wentz than literally any other QB he's had (Cutler, McCown, Hoyer, Foles).

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/201 ... -nfl-wr-qb

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:11 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:47 pm
DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
Is there a single WR that performed better with Wentz than other QBs?

We just saw Nelson Agholor look better than he ever has with Derek Carr.

Alshon Jeffery performed noticeably worse with Wentz than literally any other QB he's had (Cutler, McCown, Hoyer, Foles).

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/201 ... -nfl-wr-qb
Jordan Matthews?

People also hate ertz but he’s been eating

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby krtbuckeye » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:11 pm

I sold Pittman for Corey Davis/2.10 a few weeks ago for fear of Wentz going to Indy, made too much sense with Reich. I like Pittman, and I could be very wrong, but I think he can be a solid 70 catch, 800-1000 yard guy with TD upside, but not sure if he breaks through a ceiling much higher than that.
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TE: Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:30 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:11 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:47 pm
DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 pm If Wentz can stay healthy I think it could be a great thing for the WR room. Speaking of, who is in the WR room besides Pittman and Campbell? Pascal and Fountain? Surely they’re bringing in someone else.

I’m not sure of the Colt’s cap space but I think they’re in a good shape. What if they brought in Juju?

Wentz-Taylor-Juju-Pittman-Campbell could be a productive offense if they can all stay healthy
Is there a single WR that performed better with Wentz than other QBs?

We just saw Nelson Agholor look better than he ever has with Derek Carr.

Alshon Jeffery performed noticeably worse with Wentz than literally any other QB he's had (Cutler, McCown, Hoyer, Foles).

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/201 ... -nfl-wr-qb
Jordan Matthews?

People also hate ertz but he’s been eating
Matthews put up 872 yards competing with Maclin his rookie year with Foles. He's cooked now because he played through a knee injury he shouldn't have tried to play through... not because he can't play without Wentz.

Ertz is a TE.. and that's the position group that benefits the most from Wentz signing with IND, imo.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:55 pm

DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:40 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:28 pm
CGW wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:21 pm

I'd rather see a deep threat than juju.
JuJu is a minus for any WR because he’s going to soak up slot snaps.
It seemed to work out okay for Dionte Johnson :think: regardless I’m hoping they bring someone in that can help Pittman out. I think he can be a great WR2
... are you more or less excited for Diontae Johnson in 2021 if JuJu leaves?
krtbuckeye wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:11 pm I sold Pittman for Corey Davis/2.10 a few weeks ago for fear of Wentz going to Indy, made too much sense with Reich. I like Pittman, and I could be very wrong, but I think he can be a solid 70 catch, 800-1000 yard guy with TD upside, but not sure if he breaks through a ceiling much higher than that.
Corey Davis actually seems like a really interesting fit in Indy.
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby DynastyDabbler » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:06 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:55 pm
DynastyDabbler wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:40 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:28 pm

JuJu is a minus for any WR because he’s going to soak up slot snaps.
It seemed to work out okay for Dionte Johnson :think: regardless I’m hoping they bring someone in that can help Pittman out. I think he can be a great WR2
... are you more or less excited for Diontae Johnson in 2021 if JuJu leaves?
krtbuckeye wrote: Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:11 pm I sold Pittman for Corey Davis/2.10 a few weeks ago for fear of Wentz going to Indy, made too much sense with Reich. I like Pittman, and I could be very wrong, but I think he can be a solid 70 catch, 800-1000 yard guy with TD upside, but not sure if he breaks through a ceiling much higher than that.
Corey Davis actually seems like a really interesting fit in Indy.
I don’t feel any different about DJ. I expect Claypool to take a step forward but I feel like the offense can support two fantasy relevant wrs.

I’d be happy with Davis in Indy.
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QB: J. Burrow, J. Goff
RB: J. Mixon, K. Walker, T. Etienne, A. Ekeler, Z. Charbonet, K. Miller, T. Bigsby, J. Warren,
WR: J. Chase, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, D. Smith, J. Smith-Njigba, P. Nacua, J. Meyers, T. Palmer,
TE: T. Kelce, T. McBride, C. Okonkwo

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Ice » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:19 pm

Don't think we are sleeping on Pittman.

I didn't rate him very high. Looks like a minus athlete overall. Fairly short arms, not fast, marginal vertical, and marginal explosiveness.

He could end up being a good player but would be surprised if he ever turned out to be a star. On the plus side I do like his aggressive style and catch radius. Could be a solid red zone threat.

Wentz needs to be brave in tight windows for Pittman to be really successful. He can catch really well IMO.
Last edited by Ice on Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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