We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:46 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:12 pm
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:12 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:18 pm Higgins tested pretty poorly in the athleticism department. I’d argue his profile on paper isn’t better than Pittmans. Being a bad athlete when you’re big is not good.
Higgins had a bad combine, and he's not an amazing athlete by any means. But he's a Big receiver, was an early declare, a borderline 1st round pick with a 96th percentile breakout age and a 93rd percentile yards per reception. Athleticism numbers don't matter as much for receivers that fit that profile. He's comfortably behind the other 4, in his own tier for me.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:26 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:03 am
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:20 am
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:18 pm

Yeah, what OCR said. I'm not sure about the sizes of 2nd/20 vs 2nd/19. I was just posting for informational purposes (maybe charts help some people more than words...).

I also edited my first post, KC. I think it's moreso coincidence. Either way they are only a few points off anyway and I would agree 21 is where I really start to drop players down boards. Not touching Aiyuk, Claypool or Jefferson for that reason
i'm scooping up jefferson wherever i can. let's see who's right.
I was referring to Van btw. Should have been clearer
yes, i knew that. everybody drools over the other jefferson.

van will be an interesting case of trusting your eyes over some stat. which one will be right? we'll find out in a couple of years,

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:34 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:12 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:18 pm Higgins tested pretty poorly in the athleticism department. I’d argue his profile on paper isn’t better than Pittmans. Being a bad athlete when you’re big is not good.
Higgins had a bad combine, and he's not an amazing athlete by any means. But he's a Big receiver, was an early declare, a borderline 1st round pick with a 96th percentile breakout age and a 93rd percentile yards per reception. Athleticism numbers don't matter as much for receivers that fit that profile. He's comfortably behind the other 4, in his own tier for me.
I've done research that leads me to believe the combine is actually really important for the bigger (6'2"+) WR's. Very few receivers that we would think of as WR1 types have had bad combines in the speedscore and leaping categories. Keenan Allen bucks the trend. Mike Williams has been ok but not great so far. Brian Hartline was ok. Jordy Nelson was a stud. That's like 2 studs in 10+ years. So, not saying it's impossible, I'd just rather gamble on Pittman is all.

edit: Steve Johnson also. Went back about 15 years that's all i could find doing a quick search
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:34 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:12 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:18 pm Higgins tested pretty poorly in the athleticism department. I’d argue his profile on paper isn’t better than Pittmans. Being a bad athlete when you’re big is not good.
Higgins had a bad combine, and he's not an amazing athlete by any means. But he's a Big receiver, was an early declare, a borderline 1st round pick with a 96th percentile breakout age and a 93rd percentile yards per reception. Athleticism numbers don't matter as much for receivers that fit that profile. He's comfortably behind the other 4, in his own tier for me.
I've done research that leads me to believe the combine is actually really important for the bigger (6'2"+) WR's. Very few receivers that we would think of as WR1 types have had bad combines in the speedscore and leaping categories. Keenan Allen bucks the trend. Mike Williams has been ok but not great so far.
How bad of an athlete do you believe he is? Based on his in game MPH, his forty time is closer to the 4.54 he ran at his pro day than the adjusted 4.59 people are giving him credit for. Given the vastly different breakout ages, college YPR, and early declare vs 4 year player, I don't think it's fair to compare him to Mike Williams. A better comparison would be Mike Evans

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:34 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:12 pm

Higgins had a bad combine, and he's not an amazing athlete by any means. But he's a Big receiver, was an early declare, a borderline 1st round pick with a 96th percentile breakout age and a 93rd percentile yards per reception. Athleticism numbers don't matter as much for receivers that fit that profile. He's comfortably behind the other 4, in his own tier for me.
I've done research that leads me to believe the combine is actually really important for the bigger (6'2"+) WR's. Very few receivers that we would think of as WR1 types have had bad combines in the speedscore and leaping categories. Keenan Allen bucks the trend. Mike Williams has been ok but not great so far.
How bad of an athlete do you believe he is? Based on his in game MPH, his forty time is closer to the 4.54 he ran at his pro day than the adjusted 4.59 people are giving him credit for. Given the vastly different breakout ages and college YPR I don't think it's fair to compare him to Mike Williams. A better comparison would be Mike Evans
Speedscore and/or leaping. Higgins leaping was also terrible, 31 inch vert is really really bad. He's nowhere near Mike Evans athletically.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:34 pm

I've done research that leads me to believe the combine is actually really important for the bigger (6'2"+) WR's. Very few receivers that we would think of as WR1 types have had bad combines in the speedscore and leaping categories. Keenan Allen bucks the trend. Mike Williams has been ok but not great so far.
How bad of an athlete do you believe he is? Based on his in game MPH, his forty time is closer to the 4.54 he ran at his pro day than the adjusted 4.59 people are giving him credit for. Given the vastly different breakout ages and college YPR I don't think it's fair to compare him to Mike Williams. A better comparison would be Mike Evans
Speedscore and/or leaping. Higgins leaping was also terrible, 31 inch vert is really really bad. He's nowhere near Mike Evans athletically.
It's an imperferct comparison, I'll admit. But it's a lot more apt of an analytical comparison than Mike Williams, imo.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm

How bad of an athlete do you believe he is? Based on his in game MPH, his forty time is closer to the 4.54 he ran at his pro day than the adjusted 4.59 people are giving him credit for. Given the vastly different breakout ages and college YPR I don't think it's fair to compare him to Mike Williams. A better comparison would be Mike Evans
Speedscore and/or leaping. Higgins leaping was also terrible, 31 inch vert is really really bad. He's nowhere near Mike Evans athletically.
It's an imperferct comparison, I'll admit. But it's a lot more apt of an analytical comparison than Mike Williams, imo.
I never comped him to Mike Williams though!??!? I said players who have missed the mark on either or both have generally not lived up to expectations, and listed the WR's I could quickly find...

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm

How bad of an athlete do you believe he is? Based on his in game MPH, his forty time is closer to the 4.54 he ran at his pro day than the adjusted 4.59 people are giving him credit for. Given the vastly different breakout ages and college YPR I don't think it's fair to compare him to Mike Williams. A better comparison would be Mike Evans
Speedscore and/or leaping. Higgins leaping was also terrible, 31 inch vert is really really bad. He's nowhere near Mike Evans athletically.
It's an imperferct comparison, I'll admit. But it's a lot more apt of an analytical comparison than Mike Williams, imo.
I mean: for starters Evans was dominating the best conference in football and top flight CBs as a freshman, whereas Higgins underwhelmed in the CFB playoff

And athletically I'm pretty sure he could jump over a soda can
Last edited by StripesOfKC on Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 pm

Speedscore and/or leaping. Higgins leaping was also terrible, 31 inch vert is really really bad. He's nowhere near Mike Evans athletically.
It's an imperferct comparison, I'll admit. But it's a lot more apt of an analytical comparison than Mike Williams, imo.
I never comped him to Mike Williams though!??!? I said players who have missed the mark on either or both have generally not lived up to expectations, and listed the WR's I could quickly find...
Ok, but did he fail expectations because of his athleticism or because he wasn't very good? Because by and large the WRs that fit his analytical profile don't have much success in the NFL

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:55 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:51 pm

It's an imperferct comparison, I'll admit. But it's a lot more apt of an analytical comparison than Mike Williams, imo.
I never comped him to Mike Williams though!??!? I said players who have missed the mark on either or both have generally not lived up to expectations, and listed the WR's I could quickly find...
Ok, but did he fail expectations because of his athleticism or because he wasn't very good?
... there's nothing to argue here. I'm simply stating a fact. You don't think it applies to Higgins, which is fine. There are success stories (edit: i.e. studs) that I listed such as Allen and Jordy, they're just few and far between.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:09 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:55 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

I never comped him to Mike Williams though!??!? I said players who have missed the mark on either or both have generally not lived up to expectations, and listed the WR's I could quickly find...
Ok, but did he fail expectations because of his athleticism or because he wasn't very good?
... there's nothing to argue here. I'm simply stating a fact. You don't think it applies to Higgins, which is fine. There are success stories that I listed such as Allen and Jordy, they're just few and far between.
It's really an imperfect sample size given the number of big WRs that don't run all of the tests, and the few WRs that hit his analytical benchmarks. Larry Fitzgerald only gave us a 40 time. Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree, DeAndre Hopkins missed your sample size by an inch, Kenny Golladay, etc.

Now, I'll admit that his vertical jump was pretty pathetic and maybe his limited burst is a problem at the NFL level.. but I think he's worth taking a chance on given the metrics I highlighted for him earlier.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:14 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:09 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:55 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:54 pm

Ok, but did he fail expectations because of his athleticism or because he wasn't very good?
... there's nothing to argue here. I'm simply stating a fact. You don't think it applies to Higgins, which is fine. There are success stories that I listed such as Allen and Jordy, they're just few and far between.
It's really an imperfect sample size given the number of big WRs that don't run all of the tests, and the few WRs that hit his analytical benchmarks. Larry Fitzgerald only gave us a 40 time. Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree, DeAndre Hopkins missed your sample size by an inch, Kenny Golladay, etc.

Now, I'll admit that his vertical jump was pretty pathetic and maybe his limited burst is a problem at the NFL level.. but I think he's worth taking a chance on given the metrics I highlighted for him earlier.
Most do run the 40 and leaping, it's the agility that many skip.

Bowe is 6'2", Crabtree and Hopkins are 6'1", and Golladay is 6'4", not quite sure where you're going there.

I agree, very good profile otherwise. Me personally, i'd rather gamble on the perceived higher upside of Pittman given his superior athletic ability.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:26 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:14 pm Me personally, i'd rather gamble on the perceived higher upside of Pittman given his superior athletic ability.
That's fair, and I think it comes down to personal preference. Personally I don't think upside is limited to athletic ability and that contextualized analytics gives a better range of outcomes. There are certainly athletic players that have non-flattering profiles that hit on their athletic upside (Terry McLaurin) and contextual analytics monsters without the best physical profiles that do as well (DeAndre Hopkins).

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby AkaliWarrior » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:11 pm

ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:53 am The biggest criticism I have of the dominator rating/breakout age/early declare grouping as they are currently used is that every single one of them piggy back on draft position. The problem with this is that draft position is not a static dataset, nor is it an exact stand in for talent level. You’re building a correlation on a correlation and throwing around exact likelihoods of success.
The reason why is because the best predictor of NFL success is draft capital (ie. draft position). Of course there are outliers, so no need to show a list of names that are hall of famers that were selected in the 6th round. But overall, the premise is that if you have 2 WR's with the same breakout age/dominator rating, and player A was drafted in the 2nd round and player B was drafted in the 5th round, there is a much higher chance of success of player A succeeding. The actual percentage has already been calculated and it's listed in the article I gave a few posts above.


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