We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

[ericanadian]

I feel like I'm a lot lower on breakout age as a big factor than most nowadays. I understand the logic, that good players tend to be good right away. But it's also not inconceivable that other players simply take more time to grow into the role. It's not like it's never been done before, there are plenty of success stories.

Breakout Age / Name
22.6 Chad Johnson
22.6 Kelvin Benjamin
22.0 Greg Jennings
21.8 Victor Cruz
21.5 Brandon Marshall
21.5 Michael Thomas
21.5 Santonio Holmes
21.4 John Brown
21.1 Plaxico Burress
21.1 Stevie Johnson
21.0 Dwayne Bowe
20.9 Michael Pittman Jr.
20.8 Brian Hartline
20.8 Dionte Johnson - the guy people think is better than juju
20.8 Roddy White
20.7 Calvin Ridley
20.6 Deebo Samuel
20.6 Randy Moss
20.6 Vincent Jackson
20.5 Eric Decker
20.5 Michael Gallup

Greg Jennings breakout age is an error in PlayerProfiler. It should be 20 y.o.
Dwayne Bowe is also an error and should also be 20 y.o.
Santonio Holmes is also an error and should be 19.5 y.o.
Steve Johnson, Chad Johnson & John Brown were Juco transfers.

Kelvin Benjamin graduated high school at 20 y.o. Broke out his sophomore year in college.
Plaxico Burress seemingly graduated high school at 19 y.o. and did a year in a military academy after that. Broke out first year in college.
Brandon Marshall played DB for seven games as a junior due to injuries to the unit, then broke out his senior year.
Michael Thomas was inexplicably redshirted as a sophomore., then broke out as an old junior.
Victor Cruz was kicked out of school twice for poor grades, so couldn't get on the field.

I would generally want to see extenuating circumstances for anyone with a breakout age of 21+. Aiyuk seems to clear that hurdle. I'm not touching Duvernay or Van Jefferson though.

Thanks, I was hoping someone would check all those. I figured at least some were incorrect. Why there isn't a database with all or even mostly correct data is maddening. I was looking up something on combineresults.com the other day and saw multiple errors from just this past draft class.

I assume you would also be very wary of Claypool then as well?

Playerprofiler seems to be pretty good on the newer guys, but I was surprised by the number of errors on the older guys.

Yes, I’m not sure I’d completely blackball Claypool, as I’m willing to push the boundaries of stuff like this a bit, but I’m probably pushing him down enough that I’m not going to be the one drafting him.

[Cameron Giles]

Here's the link to the Pittman v Evans comparisons.

https://twitter.com/h12lukeNFL/status/1 ... 43077?s=20

Again, I'm not saying that Pittman is going to be Mike Evans, but their measurables and playstyle are very similar/relatable.

Oh no, I don't disagree that Pittman and Evans have a few similarities. Like I said, Pittman is in the ballpark athletically and physically if you look at the combine numbers.

However, Evans was a completely different animal in college and as a prospect. He was 19 years old, dominating the best conference in football. At Evans' age, Pittman was playing special teams in the PAC-12 and didn't really start to show promise until late in his junior year.

Evans was a Top-10 pick as a WR because of it.

I don't think anyone is shocked that Evans is as good as he's been in the NFL. He was expected to be this good. If Pittman ends up like Evans, it would certainly be a shocker. That's why I can't say his upside is Evans.

[GOTGDynasty]

He should be going fifth at worst, I'd take him third.

I wrestle with this, too. Without much of a preseason that second tier of WRs (behind CeeDee, Jeudy and I would put Jefferson in there, too) is going to be harder to measure in terms of chemistry with each's team. If I needed a starting WR from a rookie in that bunched-up tier immediately, Pittman would probably be it, especially with T.Y. soaking up the double-coverage. Opportunity and situation is there for 2020. But after T.Y. is gone (and Rivers as well), in future years, is he really going to outplay Ruggs, Mims, Shenault (and some others who are in that tier conversation)? With the 2.02 and 2.03 I might well take him, but if it means passing on Ruggs or Mims in particular, or maybe even, say, AJ Dillon or one of the two top QBs in the class, it still feels like a jump ball. Thanks for the insight. It's definitely something on my mind.

[AkaliWarrior]

Here's the link to the Pittman v Evans comparisons.

https://twitter.com/h12lukeNFL/status/1 ... 43077?s=20

Again, I'm not saying that Pittman is going to be Mike Evans, but their measurables and playstyle are very similar/relatable.

Oh no, I don't disagree that Pittman and Evans have a few similarities. Like I said, Pittman is in the ballpark athletically and physically if you look at the combine numbers.

However, Evans was a completely different animal in college and as a prospect. He was 19 years old, dominating the best conference in football. At Evans' age, Pittman was playing special teams in the PAC-12 and didn't really start to show promise until late in his junior year.

Evans was a Top-10 pick as a WR because of it.

I don't think anyone is shocked that Evans is as good as he's been in the NFL. He was expected to be this good. If Pittman ends up like Evans, it would certainly be a shocker. That's why I can't say his upside is Evans.

Fair points. I mean look, I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not going to say that I KNOW or can guarantee top 15 WR career production, or anything like that. Like most things with rookies, a lot of it is intuition, and watching some videos of the players. While I think I'm pretty good at spotting talent, I'm by no means a scout. With that said, I love everything about Pittman from his attitude, work ethic, height, weight, speed, hands, route running, and the fact that most of the fantasy community is overlooking him because he was drafted a little later or because group think has him overlooked, just makes me like him even more. There have been plenty of players that were afterthoughts on draft day, that have become gems. And gems on draft day that have become busts. All I'm saying is that at Pittman's value, I'd rather take him with a mid 2nd and the risk that comes along with it, compared with Lamb, Jeudy at a mid 1st.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Here's the link to the Pittman v Evans comparisons.

https://twitter.com/h12lukeNFL/status/1 ... 43077?s=20

Again, I'm not saying that Pittman is going to be Mike Evans, but their measurables and playstyle are very similar/relatable.

Oh no, I don't disagree that Pittman and Evans have a few similarities. Like I said, Pittman is in the ballpark athletically and physically if you look at the combine numbers.

However, Evans was a completely different animal in college and as a prospect. He was 19 years old, dominating the best conference in football. At Evans' age, Pittman was playing special teams in the PAC-12 and didn't really start to show promise until late in his junior year.

Evans was a Top-10 pick as a WR because of it.

I don't think anyone is shocked that Evans is as good as he's been in the NFL. He was expected to be this good. If Pittman ends up like Evans, it would certainly be a shocker. That's why I can't say his upside is Evans.

Fair points. I mean look, I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not going to say that I KNOW or can guarantee top 15 WR career production, or anything like that. Like most things with rookies, a lot of it is intuition, and watching some videos of the players. While I think I'm pretty good at spotting talent, I'm by no means a scout. With that said, I love everything about Pittman from his attitude, work ethic, height, weight, speed, hands, route running, and the fact that most of the fantasy community is overlooking him because he was drafted a little later or because group think has him overlooked, just makes me like him even more. There have been plenty of players that were afterthoughts on draft day, that have become gems. And gems on draft day that have become busts. All I'm saying is that at Pittman's value, I'd rather take him with a mid 2nd and the risk that comes along with it, compared with Lamb, Jeudy at a mid 1st.

I think your perceived reasons for why he's slipping are inaccurate. I haven't seen anybody saying that they don't like Pittman because of his draft slot; rather people are treating his early second round capital as a positive. "Because group think has him overlooked" isn't a valid reason- the term groupthink is something people throw out when they can't explain why a lot of people disagree with them.

Pittman's a senior with a late breakout age. Those guys hit at historically lower rates than their early breakout/early-declare counterparts. This isn't to say that Pittman can't break out or even be the best WR in this class, but that the four guys who are consistently going much earlier (Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, and Jefferson) all have profiles that are historically more correlated with success.

I think it's hard to say Pittman is being overlooked; he was the 8th WR drafted and he's the 6th WR coming off the board per Mizelle right now. If you're not concerned about Pittman's breakout age or status as a senior, then Aiyuk, who's going 2+ rounds later in startups, should be a better value and more "overlooked" than Pittman. Right now I think the most overlooked player is Shenault.

[AkaliWarrior]

I don't care about breakout age. So if you're unwilling to get off of such a topic, let's just agree to disagree.

I don't care for Aiyuk's landing spot. Even with Deebo's injury, I think Aiyuks upside is limited. I don't have much interest in Aiyuk.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I don't care about breakout age. So if you're unwilling to get off of such a topic, let's just agree to disagree.

Any reason why not?

[AkaliWarrior]

I probably shouldn't have said I don't care about it. It's a fine stat to look at. However, I just believe that opportunity at the NFL level is what drives the best chance of success. I think Pittman is going to get all the opportunity he can handle from the get-go. Add in his size, speed, catch point radius, and sticky hands and I love him as a prospect. I have an affinity to these Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Vincent Jackson, Cortland Sutton type of players. I think their success is much easier to come by rather than trying to pick the next Tyreek Hill with a guy like Ruggs (for example).

[TheNuts]

I probably shouldn't have said I don't care about it. It's a fine stat to look at. However, I just believe that opportunity at the NFL level is what drives the best chance of success. I think Pittman is going to get all the opportunity he can handle from the get-go. Add in his size, speed, catch point radius, and sticky hands and I love him as a prospect. I have an affinity to these Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Vincent Jackson, Cortland Sutton type of players. I think their success is much easier to come by rather than trying to pick the next Tyreek Hill with a guy like Ruggs (for example).

Agree here. His breakout age should be issue 0. It's an odds type thing, but if a player displays the proper traits of a high end prospect, he should be taken seriously. I would be more willing to use the breakout age data on a player who is more up in the air. The success rate for someone Pittmans age is not 0.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I think landing spot analysis is a lot harder to do than we take credit for, especially for WRs. With that caveat, I don't love the landing spot. Rivers will turn 39 this year and has recently preferred targeting slot WRs and RBs to X WRs. They seem committed to running the football. I don't think it's a consolidated target share- TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, and Nyheim Hines all know the offense, and they also added Trey Burton. I'm not sure that his situation is demonstrably better than anybody else's other than maybe Jeudy's, although I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody in a bad situation.

On top of all that, I think the premise of liking a rookie because they're going to get work early is a rough one to put stock in when there's no rookie minicamp and a shortened off-season.

But kudos to you guys for liking Pittman. I wish I had somebody in any of my leagues who was willing to take him over Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. Alas.

[TheNuts]

I think landing spot analysis is a lot harder to do than we take credit for, especially for WRs. With that caveat, I don't love the landing spot. Rivers will turn 39 this year and has recently preferred targeting slot WRs and RBs to X WRs. They seem committed to running the football. I don't think it's a consolidated target share- TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, and Nyheim Hines all know the offense, and they also added Trey Burton. I'm not sure that his situation is demonstrably better than anybody else's other than maybe Jeudy's, although I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody in a bad situation.

On top of all that, I think the premise of liking a rookie because they're going to get work early is a rough one to put stock in when there's no rookie minicamp and a shortened off-season.

But kudos to you guys for liking Pittman. I wish I had somebody in any of my leagues who was willing to take him over Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. Alas.

Jerry Jeudy? Talk about bad landing spots

[OhCruelestRanter]

I think landing spot analysis is a lot harder to do than we take credit for, especially for WRs. With that caveat, I don't love the landing spot. Rivers will turn 39 this year and has recently preferred targeting slot WRs and RBs to X WRs. They seem committed to running the football. I don't think it's a consolidated target share- TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, and Nyheim Hines all know the offense, and they also added Trey Burton. I'm not sure that his situation is demonstrably better than anybody else's other than maybe Jeudy's, although I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody in a bad situation.

On top of all that, I think the premise of liking a rookie because they're going to get work early is a rough one to put stock in when there's no rookie minicamp and a shortened off-season.

But kudos to you guys for liking Pittman. I wish I had somebody in any of my leagues who was willing to take him over Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. Alas.

Jerry Jeudy? Talk about bad landing spots

I literally said Jeudy!

[TheNuts]

I think landing spot analysis is a lot harder to do than we take credit for, especially for WRs. With that caveat, I don't love the landing spot. Rivers will turn 39 this year and has recently preferred targeting slot WRs and RBs to X WRs. They seem committed to running the football. I don't think it's a consolidated target share- TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, and Nyheim Hines all know the offense, and they also added Trey Burton. I'm not sure that his situation is demonstrably better than anybody else's other than maybe Jeudy's, although I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody in a bad situation.

On top of all that, I think the premise of liking a rookie because they're going to get work early is a rough one to put stock in when there's no rookie minicamp and a shortened off-season.

But kudos to you guys for liking Pittman. I wish I had somebody in any of my leagues who was willing to take him over Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. Alas.

Jerry Jeudy? Talk about bad landing spots

I literally said Jeudy!

I know. You said Pittman has a bad landing spot, so you wish someone would take him over Jeudy. I said Jeudy has a bad landing spot also

[OhCruelestRanter]

Jerry Jeudy? Talk about bad landing spots

I literally said Jeudy!

I know. You said Pittman has a bad landing spot, so you wish someone would take him over Jeudy. I said Jeudy has a bad landing spot also

Ah, I see what you mean. Let me clarify- while I don’t think Pittman’s landing spot is great, it’s not the reason I’m lower on him than some of you. I actually try not to make decisions based on landing spot analysis (especially for WRs) because while I think landing spot is important, I don’t think we’re very good at analyzing it. He brought up landing spot, so I was just giving my thoughts on Pittman’s. I wouldn’t short a WR because of a landing spot this year.

The reason I prefer those guys to Pittman is because they’re first round WRs who declared early and broke out at age 18/19.

[AkaliWarrior]

But kudos to you guys for liking Pittman. I wish I had somebody in any of my leagues who was willing to take him over Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. Alas.

We can probably do without the passive-aggressive backhanded jabs. I don't think anyone said they would literally take Pittman over Lamb/Jeudy. I'm not blind to value and I would trade down to obtain value and then draft Pittman. I actually traded the 1.05 for a late 1st and a mid-2nd. The guy I traded took Jeudy and I took Chase Young and Pittman. Highway robbery if you ask me. Although I would absolutely take Pittman 100 times out of 100 over Reagor. I do like Jefferson though, as I'm a Viking fan, but I do think Pittman has a higher ceiling.