We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

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OhCruelestRanter
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:16 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:01 pm
Finished my big review of rookie WRs today (late, I know) and my takeaway is that Pittman is criminally undervalued. This guy's going as the 10th WR off the board based on ADP. He should be going fifth at worst, I'd take him third.


The analytics pros and cons speak for itself. He's not an elite athlete, he'll need to back up his size with considerable technique in order to dominate at the NFL level. One's answer to that question comes down to what you think of his tape and landing spot. In a sense, this isn't going to be a super helpful thread, because I don't have much more to say other than that my takeaway from the tape was incredibly positive.

But I'm throwing my advice out there: don't let this guy slip by you. I'm not advocating to take him as the third WR off the board, but I am advocating to aggressively pursue him at the value he's falling to. Trade into the mid second, or move sexier assets to grab him cheap-ish if your draft's already done. If you want a bold claim, I'll plant my flag on a 1,000-yard rookie season.


also, grab Devin Duvernay in the late 3rd
I actually think Pittman's athleticism, given his size, is one of the things in his favor. He's not quite the athlete that Mims and Claypool are, but I think given his size he's a better athlete than Lamb, Jeudy, and Higgins. He's also probably a better athlete than Jefferson and Reagor, again considering what he's able to do with a bigger frame.

My concerns are that he really didn't break out until his age 21 season, and I can't find a good reason for that. In 2017, he turned 20, and he was outproduced by Deontay Burnett, Tyler Vaughns, and Steven Mitchell.

I have a couple drafts this weekend where I have picks in his range, but I think I view Pittman, Higgins, and Mims kind of similarly, so I'll probably be moving back unless he's the last guy available in that tier.
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby PTW32 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 pm

In the 4 1QB rookie drafts ive had so far hes gone off the board at pick 5, 11, 11, 13.

I traded in 13 to take him there. The rest of my drafts he seemed fairly if not over valued.
Team 1 10 Team PPR QB, 2RB, 3WR, 2TE, 3Flex

QB: Lamar, Rodgers
RB: Dalvin, Conner, Gaskin, Lindsay, Mattison, Mckissic
WR: Godwin, Golladay, Boyd, John Brown, Aiyuk, Fulgham
TE: Kelce, Kittle, Tonyan, Logan Thomas

Team 2 10 Team PPR QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3Flex
QB: Baker, Lock, Big Ben, Brady
RB: Barkley, CEH, Jonathan Taylor, Dobbins, Dion Lewis, Damian Williams, Mattison,
WR: Diggs, Arob, Cortland Sutton, Robert Woods, Lockett, Lamb, TreQuan Smith, Diontae, Randall Cobb, Dante Pettis, Andy Isabella
TE: Andrews, Hurst, Irv Smith Jr

Team 3 12 Team PPR (keep 16)
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3Flex, DL, LB, DB

QB: Goff, Stafford
RB: CMC, CEH, Mixon, Dobbins, Scott, Kerryon
WR: Godwin, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Arob, Lamb, Keenan, Diontae, Cooks, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Schultz
DL: JJ Watt
LB: Cunningham
DB: J. Johnson

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Plank » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:37 pm

qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:22 pm
I'm with the masses here that I don't think many are still sleeping on him.

I was otc at 2.01 in my SF and had a bidding war over my pick. I declined as I wanted and picked Pittman. One of the owners has been sending me more offers since, with the other one telling me Pittman was who he was trying to get as well.

The latest offer was Hollywood straight up by the way, which again shows people definitely value him highly already.
I would accept for Hollywood .. the numbers for Hollywood are quite staggering .. if I can remember where I heard the conversations about him I will forward along .
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:00 pm

I believe he was a RB all the way up to his senior year in highschool so that could be why he had a slow start in college. Thought I read somewhere he had 6 QB's in 4 years of college too. I'm pretty high on him and don't think there's much a difference if any between he and the other guys like Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor or Jefferson.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:14 pm

PTW32 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 pm
In the 4 1QB rookie drafts ive had so far hes gone off the board at pick 5, 11, 11, 13.

I traded in 13 to take him there. The rest of my drafts he seemed fairly if not over valued.
5?! Wow, I like him but I wouldn't take him over Lamb, Jeudy or the top 5 RBs.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:45 pm

PTW32 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 pm
In the 4 1QB rookie drafts ive had so far hes gone off the board at pick 5, 11, 11, 13.

I traded in 13 to take him there. The rest of my drafts he seemed fairly if not over valued.
Through 2 Superflex drafts, he’s been the 17th player off the board each time. Each time behind:
The top 5 RBs and Vaughn
The top 3 QBs
Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Jefferson, Reagor, Higgins and Mims (in some order)

Assuming nobody is taking a QB in the first 14 picks of most 10-14 team 1QB formats this year, I’m assuming 17th is similar to 14th in 1QB.
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:54 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:45 pm
PTW32 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 pm
In the 4 1QB rookie drafts ive had so far hes gone off the board at pick 5, 11, 11, 13.

I traded in 13 to take him there. The rest of my drafts he seemed fairly if not over valued.
Through 2 Superflex drafts, he’s been the 17th player off the board each time. Each time behind:
The top 5 RBs and Vaughn
The top 3 QBs
Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Jefferson, Reagor, Higgins and Mims (in some order)

Assuming nobody is taking a QB in the first 14 picks of most 10-14 team 1QB formats this year, I’m assuming 17th is similar to 14th in 1QB.
Weird, I've done I think 7 rookie drafts so far, 1QB and SF, and Pittman has gone before Mims in all of them.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:03 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:54 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:45 pm
PTW32 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 pm
In the 4 1QB rookie drafts ive had so far hes gone off the board at pick 5, 11, 11, 13.

I traded in 13 to take him there. The rest of my drafts he seemed fairly if not over valued.
Through 2 Superflex drafts, he’s been the 17th player off the board each time. Each time behind:
The top 5 RBs and Vaughn
The top 3 QBs
Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Jefferson, Reagor, Higgins and Mims (in some order)

Assuming nobody is taking a QB in the first 14 picks of most 10-14 team 1QB formats this year, I’m assuming 17th is similar to 14th in 1QB.
Weird, I've done I think 7 rookie drafts so far, 1QB and SF, and Pittman has gone before Mims in all of them.
So Pittman’s going a few spots earlier in Mizelle ADP, but Mims is going early in the FFPC, but Pittman is going earlier in MFL drafts. I don’t think it’s crazy to take one ahead of the other. They’re both seniors with obvious upside and real production questions. Gun to my head I’d probably take Mims, because I think he’ll be targeted more this year and end up being more valuable next offseason, but I’d prefer to move back and take whoever falls.
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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:05 pm

Yea... I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that people are sleeping on him.

He's gone way higher than I'm willing to take him in every single one of my drafts; usually gone by the 2.02 in Superflex

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby whodunnit » Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:27 am

I took him 1.12 in a non SF and 2.02 in a SF. He's my no.3 WR in this class
Watson Goff Trubisky Rosen *Luck
A.Jones Ingram Gurley Conner R.Jones Robinson
Hill Golladay Boykin Williams Renfrow Lamb Reagor Pittman Shenault Doctson Tr.Smith O.Johnson
Hockenson Hollister Knox Kmet Eifert
Allen Watt Armstead Beasley Barnett Collier
Judon Chubb Jones P.Smith Takitaki Whitehead
Savage Jackson Ward
PS: Newman, Jamie (QB) Borghi, Max (RB) Brown, Journey (RB) Wallace, Tylan (WR) Surratt, Sage (WR)


Mayfield Winston Jones Rudolph
Henry Gurley Jacobs Montgomery McKinnon Pollard Procise Burkhead
Hopkins Kupp Ridley AJG
Fant Brate James Reed
Heyward Houston Jordan
Watt Collins Mack Dupree Bucannon Bradham
Mathieu Diggs

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:47 am

CL3VELANDBR0WNS wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:54 am
Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:08 pm
i'm pretty sure reich said he's going to be their x receiver out of the gate. he will be the possession guy like he was in college. i'm taking him if jeudy/lamb/ruggs are off the board.
2017: 17.6 YPR // 2018: 18.5 YPR // 2019: 12.6 YPR
Who is he? If he can have a sort of Mike Williams role for Rivers, I think that is the best path to fantasy relevancy in year 1. If he's expected to be a possession volume compiler, I seriously doubt that as a rookie he will contribute with a not-done-yet TY Hilton & a YAC guy like Campbell that could be like Rivers' new Ty Williams.
I like the player, think he can do well at all levels of the field but I don't know if he will have that sort of explosive yardage potential with possession receiver usage on likely underwhelming volume. I think he might be better in real-life than fantasy.
The colts said Campbell will play in the slot. They want pittman on the outside to be in one on one situations so he can use his size and strength to win those match ups and get 1st downs for them.

Sounded to me like they picture him as their possession guy.

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Blueboy » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:18 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:05 pm
Yea... I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that people are sleeping on him.

He's gone way higher than I'm willing to take him in every single one of my drafts; usually gone by the 2.02 in Superflex
My own experience through seven rookie drafts and Mizelle+FFPC ADP. The consensus seems to be that he belongs in a large tier of WR behind Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. I'm saying he's my WR3 in this class, and positing that where he's currently going is really a value

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:28 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:18 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:05 pm
Yea... I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that people are sleeping on him.

He's gone way higher than I'm willing to take him in every single one of my drafts; usually gone by the 2.02 in Superflex
My own experience through seven rookie drafts and Mizelle+FFPC ADP. The consensus seems to be that he belongs in a large tier of WR behind Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson/Reagor. I'm saying he's my WR3 in this class, and positing that where he's currently going is really a value
The same could be said for all of these tier 2 WRs. Someone, somewhere has all of these tier 2 WR's way above consensus. That doesn't mean people are sleeping on him, that means this is a really deep class and Pittman is "your guy".

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby jordanzs » Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:05 pm

I recently traded Devin Singletary to go on the clock and draft him at 1.11

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Re: We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

Postby I-ROK » Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:22 am

He’s going about where he should go. Poor mans Mike Williams, which isn’t a really good thing. That guy has been a pretty major disappointment. Pittman can be a good flex guy someday I think. His value will be insulated for at least a year based on his situation and the hype.

People who are high on him will take him higher and people who aren’t won’t. This is a deep class in general, and the tiers of players aren’t a consensus by any means.

I don’t like his chances being a non-early declare. Saw this in a thread here:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/f ... receivers/
6.7% have a WR1 season
18.6% have a WR2 season

Rookie picks are hard enough to hit without handicapping myself by taking a profile that doesn’t hit often.

I think people are sleeping on Shenault more than anyone
Last edited by I-ROK on Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:36 am, edited 8 times in total.


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