Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

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StripesOfKC
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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:00 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:35 pm
ericanadian wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:49 pm
straightcashhomie831 wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:47 pm Reagor led all college WRs in contested catches.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 92033?s=20
Because he gets very little separation against quality corners outside of screens and just running by guys.
:lol:
He certainly did a fantastic job disappearing at TCU last season. Watch a ton of Big 12 and Big 10 football and when watching TCU could hardly even tell he was playing--all against a bad defensive conference known to be sliced apart by speedsters. The fact a player like that is considered above a superstud like Jefferson is insane to me

But he fast so carry on with the hype

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby AussieMate » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:02 pm

ericanadian wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:49 pm
straightcashhomie831 wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:47 pm Reagor led all college WRs in contested catches.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 92033?s=20
Because he gets very little separation against quality corners outside of screens and just running by guys.
My view of it was his qb couldn't throw him open as I saw him him having to slow down his routes or even backpedal to contest an errant throw.
But in reality its probably a mix between the 2 rather than "he can't seperate" or "his qb is all to blame".

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:04 pm

AussieMate wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:02 pm
ericanadian wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:49 pm
straightcashhomie831 wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:47 pm Reagor led all college WRs in contested catches.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 92033?s=20
Because he gets very little separation against quality corners outside of screens and just running by guys.
My view of it was his qb couldn't throw him open as I saw him him having to slow down his routes or even backpedal to contest an errant throw.
But in reality its probably a mix between the 2 rather than "he can't seperate" or "his qb is all to blame".
Most of college football has bad QB play. This is a tired excuse for why he couldn't produce against Big 12 secondaries.

How did Reagor do last year in games where his offense was rolling with 30-40+ points? Against teams like Purdue, SMU and Kansas?

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:10 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:04 pm
AussieMate wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:02 pm
ericanadian wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:49 pm

Because he gets very little separation against quality corners outside of screens and just running by guys.
My view of it was his qb couldn't throw him open as I saw him him having to slow down his routes or even backpedal to contest an errant throw.
But in reality its probably a mix between the 2 rather than "he can't seperate" or "his qb is all to blame".
Most of college football has bad QB play. This is a tired excuse for why he couldn't produce against Big 12 secondaries.

How did Reagor do last year in games where his offense was rolling with 30-40+ points? Against teams like Purdue, SMU and Kansas?
Max Duggan was horrible even by NCAAF standards .

Percentage of accurate targets:

Justin Jefferson - 69%

Cee Dee Lamb - 59%

Jerry Jeudy - 60%

Henry Ruggs - 57%

......

KJ Hamler 42%

Jalen Reagor 31%

----------------------------------

Reagor's catchable targets was a whopping 60.7%

Reagor's 31% on target throw percentage was literally the 4th worst in the entire NCAAF. There are 130 teams in CFB...

So Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs/Jefferson saw a perfectly placed ball almost as often as Reagor saw a catchable ball. The 2nd least accurate passes in this draft class was a full 24% higher than what Reagor saw.

But sure, bad QB play is just an excuse for Reagor's 2019 season...

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:20 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:10 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:04 pm
AussieMate wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:02 pm

My view of it was his qb couldn't throw him open as I saw him him having to slow down his routes or even backpedal to contest an errant throw.
But in reality its probably a mix between the 2 rather than "he can't seperate" or "his qb is all to blame".
Most of college football has bad QB play. This is a tired excuse for why he couldn't produce against Big 12 secondaries.

How did Reagor do last year in games where his offense was rolling with 30-40+ points? Against teams like Purdue, SMU and Kansas?
Max Duggan was horrible even by NCAAF standards .

Percentage of accurate targets:

Justin Jefferson - 69%

Cee Dee Lamb - 59%

Jerry Jeudy - 60%

Henry Ruggs - 57%

......

KJ Hamler 42%

Jalen Reagor 31%

----------------------------------

Reagor's catchable targets was a whopping 60.7%

Reagor's on target throw percentage was literally the 4th worst in the entire NCAAF. There are 130 teams in CFB...
So Lamb/Jeudy saw a perfectly placed ball almost as often as Reagor saw a catchable ball. The 2nd least accurate passes were a full 24% higher than what Reagor saw.

But sure, bad QB play is just an excuse for Reagor's 2019 season...
Duggan is quite bad--no disagreements there.

But for the catchable targets: That's because Reagor doesn't have a very developed route tree. A guy like DJ Moore also dealt with bad QB play in a tougher conference yet adapted by running shorter routes and thus still managed to be productive. Reagor had nothing in his arsenal if not for screens and downfield stuff

And this still doesn't explain how Reagor led his team in receiving for all of 4/12 games last season. Were other WRs on his team catching passes from a different QB?

Not to mention he has some drop concerns--not that bad (certainly not as bad as Hamler)

I have seen more of him than any prospect except JT and Ceedee Lamb and still don't understand what's so special

An earlier poster said he judged him based on traits--which if fine; but his ADP is around players who aren't complete projection and not around projects like Mims, Higgins, etc

Looked like Corey Coleman to me (who I also hated, but I LOVED Josh Doctson so I guess it balances out) and like Corey Coleman being selected by a team with a poor record of WR development (Agholor and Jordan Matthews showed plenty of promise early in their careers) and scouting is a confirmation of what the disappearing acts I saw

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:23 pm

He checks every analytic box not denying that: broke out early (though he regressed later in his career), declared early, has draft capital, etc

The film part drives me away completely though, as it did for N'Keal Harry (and for DK so as to not pat myself on the back too much)

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:38 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:20 pm Duggan is quite bad--no disagreements there.

But for the catchable targets: That's because Reagor doesn't have a very developed route tree. A guy like DJ Moore also dealt with bad QB play in a tougher conference yet adapted by running shorter routes and thus still managed to be productive. Reagor had nothing in his arsenal if not for screens and downfield stuff

And this still doesn't explain how Reagor led his team in receiving for all of 4/12 games last season. Were other WRs on his team catching passes from a different QB?

Not to mention he has some drop concerns--not that bad (certainly not as bad as Hamler)

I have seen more of him than any prospect except JT and Ceedee Lamb and still don't understand what's so special

An earlier poster said he judged him based on traits--which if fine; but his ADP is around players who aren't complete projection and not around projects like Mims, Higgins, etc

Looked like Corey Coleman to me (who I also hated, but I LOVED Josh Doctson so I guess it balances out) and like Corey Coleman being selected by a team with a poor record of WR development (Agholor and Jordan Matthews showed plenty of promise early in their careers) and scouting is a confirmation of what the disappearing acts I saw
Have you looked at the game logs? It's not like it was one or two WRs that were consistently beating him in receiving yards.. most of the games were a single WR with 2 receptions busting out a long run after the catch while defenses were keying in on Reagor. The 2nd leading WR had 372 total receiving yards... it was an abomination of a passing game.

You're free to have your own evaluations of players but personaly I saw a lot of features I'm looking for in an alpha WR in Reagor's tape. Reagor's route tree is unproven at this point, not limited. The few routes he did run he showed quite a bit of nuance which is something I felt was missing from Coleman. He's also a much better analytical prospect than Coleman, regardless.

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby AussieMate » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:48 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:20 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:10 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:04 pm

Most of college football has bad QB play. This is a tired excuse for why he couldn't produce against Big 12 secondaries.

How did Reagor do last year in games where his offense was rolling with 30-40+ points? Against teams like Purdue, SMU and Kansas?
Max Duggan was horrible even by NCAAF standards .

Percentage of accurate targets:

Justin Jefferson - 69%

Cee Dee Lamb - 59%

Jerry Jeudy - 60%

Henry Ruggs - 57%

......

KJ Hamler 42%

Jalen Reagor 31%

----------------------------------

Reagor's catchable targets was a whopping 60.7%

Reagor's on target throw percentage was literally the 4th worst in the entire NCAAF. There are 130 teams in CFB...
So Lamb/Jeudy saw a perfectly placed ball almost as often as Reagor saw a catchable ball. The 2nd least accurate passes were a full 24% higher than what Reagor saw.

But sure, bad QB play is just an excuse for Reagor's 2019 season...
Duggan is quite bad--no disagreements there.

But for the catchable targets: That's because Reagor doesn't have a very developed route tree. A guy like DJ Moore also dealt with bad QB play in a tougher conference yet adapted by running shorter routes and thus still managed to be productive. Reagor had nothing in his arsenal if not for screens and downfield stuff

And this still doesn't explain how Reagor led his team in receiving for all of 4/12 games last season. Were other WRs on his team catching passes from a different QB?

Not to mention he has some drop concerns--not that bad (certainly not as bad as Hamler)

I have seen more of him than any prospect except JT and Ceedee Lamb and still don't understand what's so special

An earlier poster said he judged him based on traits--which if fine; but his ADP is around players who aren't complete projection and not around projects like Mims, Higgins, etc

Looked like Corey Coleman to me (who I also hated, but I LOVED Josh Doctson so I guess it balances out) and like Corey Coleman being selected by a team with a poor record of WR development (Agholor and Jordan Matthews showed plenty of promise early in their careers) and scouting is a confirmation of what the disappearing acts I saw
I won't argue some of your points as he can dissappear and has drop issues but just calling out "he gets very little separation against quality corners outside of screens and just running by guys" leaves a lot of whats going on out of the conversation, film watching is subjective, I see very high potential where as you don't, we'll all find out eventually.
I personally am lower on Jefferson than most as I think a lot of his production was a product of his situation i.e great QB, high scoring offence, great play calling along with playing the slot with a great outside receiver and RB to keep the defense honest. Obviously I still have him high just not in my top 4 like some other people.

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby Ice » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:30 am

Catchable ball percentage means almost nothing other than the WR should have made catch. Contested catches is not really that good of a stat other than the WR does catch okay in traffic either because he can't run very clean routes or the QB isn't very good.

The alarming stat about Reagor in college is he can't catch the ball very good when he actually should. He had something like 15 drops in 18 & 19 combined and got worse in 19.

A player like Ruggs had maybe 3 drops in college and two were questionable.

It is one thing to like the player but drops are infinitely more important in an overall evaluation than catchable ball or contested catches. If a player can't catch they don't last. He could be fine but he has risk inside the top 8 as a WR this draft and drops are a real stat that needs to be considered.
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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:27 am

Ice wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:30 am Catchable ball percentage means almost nothing other than the WR should have made catch. Contested catches is not really that good of a stat other than the WR does catch okay in traffic either because he can't run very clean routes or the QB isn't very good.

The alarming stat about Reagor in college is he can't catch the ball very good when he actually should. He had something like 15 drops in 18 & 19 combined and got worse in 19.

A player like Ruggs had maybe 3 drops in college and two were questionable.

It is one thing to like the player but drops are infinitely more important in an overall evaluation than catchable ball or contested catches. If a player can't catch they don't last. He could be fine but he has risk inside the top 8 as a WR this draft and drops are a real stat that needs to be considered.
I'm not a huge fan of Reagor, and not arguing your overall point, but I don't agree with this in bold. I think McLaurin runs nice routes, and led in contested catch rate. Larger WR's also may have a better contested catch rate for obvious reasons, which is part of how they win. A 6 ft 4 WR at 215 may not have the separation numbers of a guy who is 6 ft 195, but should he be expected too? I'm sure the contested catch rate would be higher in most cases. Different WR's win in different ways. No WR gets open every play, but it's not a bad thing if it's still a high percentage of likelihood they can catch the ball if they fail to create separation. Some of the best QB's throw into tight coverage because they can throw a player open, with elite ball placement, and the WR they are throwing to, they trust.

Also, per PFF, who focuses more on drops than most sites, here were their career drop rates:

PFF College
@PFF_College
Drop rate among 1st RD WRs:

1. Henry Ruggs III - 3.6%
2. Ceedee Lamb - 4.9%
3. Brandon Aiyuk - 5.5%
4. Jerry Jeudy - 5.6%
5. Jalen Reagor - 5.8%
6. Justin Jefferson - 5.9%
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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby straightcashhomie831 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:17 am

Ice wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:30 am Catchable ball percentage means almost nothing other than the WR should have made catch. Contested catches is not really that good of a stat other than the WR does catch okay in traffic either because he can't run very clean routes or the QB isn't very good.

The alarming stat about Reagor in college is he can't catch the ball very good when he actually should. He had something like 15 drops in 18 & 19 combined and got worse in 19.

A player like Ruggs had maybe 3 drops in college and two were questionable.

It is one thing to like the player but drops are infinitely more important in an overall evaluation than catchable ball or contested catches. If a player can't catch they don't last. He could be fine but he has risk inside the top 8 as a WR this draft and drops are a real stat that needs to be considered.
Hard to excuse the drops. Im a big Reagor fan. The catches i've seen him make high pointing the ball with guys on him help he determine how good/strong his hands are. He had too many concentration drops but to me i see a WR with good hands who needs to slow down at times. I see him trying to running before he catches the ball so he can create a big play catching on the run.

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby Ice » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:26 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:27 am
Ice wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:30 am Catchable ball percentage means almost nothing other than the WR should have made catch. Contested catches is not really that good of a stat other than the WR does catch okay in traffic either because he can't run very clean routes or the QB isn't very good.

The alarming stat about Reagor in college is he can't catch the ball very good when he actually should. He had something like 15 drops in 18 & 19 combined and got worse in 19.

A player like Ruggs had maybe 3 drops in college and two were questionable.

It is one thing to like the player but drops are infinitely more important in an overall evaluation than catchable ball or contested catches. If a player can't catch they don't last. He could be fine but he has risk inside the top 8 as a WR this draft and drops are a real stat that needs to be considered.
I'm not a huge fan of Reagor, and not arguing your overall point, but I don't agree with this in bold. I think McLaurin runs nice routes, and led in contested catch rate. Larger WR's also may have a better contested catch rate for obvious reasons, which is part of how they win. A 6 ft 4 WR at 215 may not have the separation numbers of a guy who is 6 ft 195, but should he be expected too? I'm sure the contested catch rate would be higher in most cases. Different WR's win in different ways. No WR gets open every play, but it's not a bad thing if it's still a high percentage of likelihood they can catch the ball if they fail to create separation. Some of the best QB's throw into tight coverage because they can throw a player open, with elite ball placement, and the WR they are throwing to, they trust.

Also, per PFF, who focuses more on drops than most sites, here were their career drop rates:

PFF College
@PFF_College
Drop rate among 1st RD WRs:

1. Henry Ruggs III - 3.6%
2. Ceedee Lamb - 4.9%
3. Brandon Aiyuk - 5.5%
4. Jerry Jeudy - 5.6%
5. Jalen Reagor - 5.8%
6. Justin Jefferson - 5.9%
Not saying i don't like Reagor but I think McLaurin is a far better route runner which he proved to be real good at last season.

My point was more that certain stats are more important. An Example, many were touting N'Keal Harry due to his contested catches but many like me were sounding alarm bells because he plays at a single speed, doesn't run routes well or separate. Hands were pretty good.

Reagor has a ton of athleticism but at 5'11 he is not one to be relied on for contested catches much. He will succeed or fail IMO on route running and a high catch rate. He needs developmental work in route running, hand positioning, and concentration.

I don't dislike him but see a lot of people talking themselves into this player as the best fantasy WR. I see a 2nd round fantasy pick with some upside.

In the end, Contested Catch numbers should never be a top criteria for a WR entering a league where the competition level is drastically better. Not saying it's worthless to a monster with a huge vertical but Reagor at 5'11" needs to win with his routes to be effective.
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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby straightcashhomie831 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:45 pm

Qbs know which guys are good at contested catches. WRs aren't open every play and many times qbs have to throw the wr open. Qbs like a guy who can make contested catches especially on 3rd downs and passing downs where the window of opportunity is smaller.

I do think Reagor needs to refine his route running but thats will come with coaching/experience and practice. But you can't take away the stuff the guy does without even being that good at route running.

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby thebeast » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:50 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:20 pm
IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:10 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:04 pm

Most of college football has bad QB play. This is a tired excuse for why he couldn't produce against Big 12 secondaries.

How did Reagor do last year in games where his offense was rolling with 30-40+ points? Against teams like Purdue, SMU and Kansas?
Max Duggan was horrible even by NCAAF standards .

Percentage of accurate targets:

Justin Jefferson - 69%

Cee Dee Lamb - 59%

Jerry Jeudy - 60%

Henry Ruggs - 57%

......

KJ Hamler 42%

Jalen Reagor 31%

----------------------------------

Reagor's catchable targets was a whopping 60.7%

Reagor's on target throw percentage was literally the 4th worst in the entire NCAAF. There are 130 teams in CFB...
So Lamb/Jeudy saw a perfectly placed ball almost as often as Reagor saw a catchable ball. The 2nd least accurate passes were a full 24% higher than what Reagor saw.

But sure, bad QB play is just an excuse for Reagor's 2019 season...
Duggan is quite bad--no disagreements there.

But for the catchable targets: That's because Reagor doesn't have a very developed route tree. A guy like DJ Moore also dealt with bad QB play in a tougher conference yet adapted by running shorter routes and thus still managed to be productive. Reagor had nothing in his arsenal if not for screens and downfield stuff

And this still doesn't explain how Reagor led his team in receiving for all of 4/12 games last season. Were other WRs on his team catching passes from a different QB?

Not to mention he has some drop concerns--not that bad (certainly not as bad as Hamler)

I have seen more of him than any prospect except JT and Ceedee Lamb and still don't understand what's so special

An earlier poster said he judged him based on traits--which if fine; but his ADP is around players who aren't complete projection and not around projects like Mims, Higgins, etc

Looked like Corey Coleman to me (who I also hated, but I LOVED Josh Doctson so I guess it balances out) and like Corey Coleman being selected by a team with a poor record of WR development (Agholor and Jordan Matthews showed plenty of promise early in their careers) and scouting is a confirmation of what the disappearing acts I saw
I think Corey Coleman flamed out due to injuries, not talent, Doctson flamed out due to lack of talent.

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Re: Is Reagor the top WR to get in 2020?

Postby Ice » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:51 pm

straightcashhomie831 wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:45 pm Qbs know which guys are good at contested catches. WRs aren't open every play and many times qbs have to throw the wr open. Qbs like a guy who can make contested catches especially on 3rd downs and passing downs where the window of opportunity is smaller.

I do think Reagor needs to refine his route running but thats will come with coaching/experience and practice. But you can't take away the stuff the guy does without even being that good at route running.
So exactly how many contested catches did he have in college? Think in 2019 I read he made 8 contested catches.
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