Is WR ridiculously deep now?

[ItsHandsomeDave]

After last years batch of rookies and the draft class this year, has the WR position even been this deep before?

Im going into a new startup and generally I tend to target younger WR's early on, but I am really starting to wonder if this is not the year to pivot away from that a bit and target younger RB's a bit more. Grated settings, league format and scoring ultimately determines things but when I look at the players who are ranked between 20 and 40 on DLF at the moment you are not exactly struggling for talent and production if you grabbed 2-3 of these guys between rounds 4 and 10.

20 Julio Jones
21 Allen Robinson
22 Stefon Diggs
23 DJ Chark
24 Deebo Samuel
25 Jalen Reagor
26 Terry McLaurin
27 Justin Jefferson
28 Tyler Boyd
29 Tyler Lockett
30 Jarvis Landry
31 Marquise Brown 0
32 Robert Woods
33 Christian Kirk
34 Henry Ruggs
35 Michael Gallup
36 DeVante Parker
37 Adam Thielen
38 Tee Higgins
39 N'Keal Harry
40 Michael Pittman
41 TY Hilton WR
42 Brandin Cooks
43 Denzel Mims
44 Mike Williams
45 Mecole Hardman
46 Darius Slayton
47 Laviska Shenault
48 Brandon Aiyuk
49 Preston Williams
50 Curtis Samuel

Curious to get some thoughts on this.

[Pac_Eddy]

Yes, I think you're right. RBs in my recent startup went right after the elite tier of WRs, so people in general agree with you. WRs are very deep. High volume RBs are far more rare. In that draft, older WRs like Julio plummeted too.

[Blueboy]

It looks that way, but that could very easily just mean that a lot of the WRs in that list who are viewed as safe are going to bust.

[jenkins.math]

An upward trend in passing volume has led to an upward trend in fantasy relevant WRs. Combine that with a downward trend in the 3 down bellcow RB and what you see is what you get.

[FantasyFreak]

An upward trend in passing volume has led to an upward trend in fantasy relevant WRs. Combine that with a downward trend in the 3 down bellcow RB and what you see is what you get.

Not just passing volume, but 3 and 4 WR sets, less real heavily targeted WR's. It's just easier to play as a WR in 2020 than it was than at any other time in NFL history, really. Talent is still there, but it's the situation as well.

[moishetreats]

I agree with the first part of your post, @ItsHandsomeDave, but less so with your strategy.

Given the depth of WR -- and highly-productive veteran WRs!! -- pairing them with young RBs makes little sense to me. In 2-3 years, the RBs will be ready to roll, but the veteran WRs will have begun their inevitable fade.

Now, we're often told to build with WRs and fill in the rest. That USUALLY means drafting young elite WRs early... which, of course, drops down top players at other positions. If you can bank on getting four of, say, Julio, Lockett, Woods, Thiilen, Cooks, Hilton in the mid- to late rounds, then you should be drafting a win-now team. In other words, forget age entirely. Look at 2020 and 2021 alone. Pair the aforementioned WRs with, say, Brees or Roethlisberger or, better yet, Stafford or Ryan -- all of whom should be available later -- with someone like Ertz (he should definitely have one to two great years left), and your team is stacked for the short-term. You'll likely draft a big-name RB or two in the first couple of rounds, and we all know that waiver-wire RBs are available for a championship push. Plus you can trade future picks to bulk up in the season.

The downside? In two years, you're likely in for a full rebuild.

The upside? By winning early (i.e., one championship game and a third-place finish), you'll be rebuilding on everyone else's dime -- and have some pocket change to boot!

[Plank]

I would say get 6 deep in the best young WR core you can get and you should run that League for years, all my teams from 2014 have been championship caliber for six years easy, teams stacked with Evans, Nuk, DeVante Adams with some 1st stud at the time like Julio, Keenan et al .. WR's simply last longer and usually pay with the consistency you need every year .. My start-ups back then pretty much went WR first 6 rounds, then 2-3 RBs, QB and usually went back to WR .. TE was always an afterthought since I have always been pretty good at picking one up as UFA with good success over the years ..

[Sriracha]

Yes, WR is crazy deep.

Last year in ppr, ppg:
#3 WR Julio Jones scored 18.3 ppg
#24 WR John Brown scored 14.7 ppg
#50 WR Marquise Brown scored 10.5 ppg

#3 RB Aaron Jones scored 19.7 ppg
#24 RB Marlon Mack scored 13 ppg
#50 RB Rex Burkhead scored 7.8 ppg

RBs score more points in comparison to WR counterparts, have smaller tiers, and less star-table players.

Many RB hits will become elite assets by the end of their rookie seasons; whereas WRs tend to have a longer incubation period before they hit their stride. This means that RB's tend to both accrue value faster, and compare more favorably in fantasy careers than the WR proponents would have you believe (In terms of elite fantasy years); which is why many favor RBs over WRs unless the WR prospects are a full tier above them.

This could change based on the META of the NFL; it's hard to tell if this receiver passing distribution is by design or the result of working with what they've got... we haven't seen too many Calvin Johnson/AJG/Julio Jones level prospects in recent years which could be forcing the WRBC out of necessity rather than scheme.

We've seen a similar trend before at the RB position when we went years without a true bell cow RB prospect and teams began using RBBC's at a record clip. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues forward, or if we see a return to WR1 focus as some very good alpha WR prospects come into the league.

[FantasyFreak]

Yes, WR is crazy deep.

Last year in ppr, ppg:
#3 WR Julio Jones scored 18.3 ppg
#24 WR John Brown scored 14.7 ppg
#50 WR Marquise Brown scored 10.5 ppg

#3 RB Aaron Jones scored 19.7 ppg
#24 RB Marlon Mack scored 13 ppg
#50 RB Rex Burkhead scored 7.8 ppg

RBs score more points in comparison to WR counterparts, have smaller tiers, and less star-table players.

Many RB hits will become elite assets by the end of their rookie seasons; whereas WRs tend to have a longer incubation period before they hit their stride. This means that RB's tend to both accrue value faster, and compare more favorably in fantasy careers than the WR proponents would have you believe (In terms of elite fantasy years); which is why many favor RBs over WRs unless the WR prospects are a full tier above them.

This could change based on the META of the NFL; it's hard to tell if this receiver passing distribution is by design or the result of working with what they've got... we haven't seen too many Calvin Johnson/AJG/Julio Jones level prospects in recent years which could be forcing the WRBC out of necessity rather than scheme.

We've seen a similar trend before at the RB position when we went years without a true bell cow RB prospect and teams began using RBBC's at a record clip. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues forward, or if we see a return to WR1 focus as some very good alpha WR prospects come into the league.

Still aren't ones to the level of Julio or AJG, though. The NFL is shifting it's ideology away from targeting 1 WR heavily. I think the reality is there is so much depth and offences spread the ball around, WR's are great but there are fewer separators than RB's. Guys like CMC can win you a league almost on their own, whereas a WR isn't going to do that nearly as much. As you said, though, less startable RB's. That's why having a CMC is better than a top WR. Easier to use that WR depth to round out your lineup, and there isn't a WR that's going to give the same edge.

[dynastyninja]

It's deeper than I think we usually see, yes. The top-end guys are also not scoring as much.

Less top tier production plus the quantity of guys is bringing down the value of the market. It's easy to field a lineup of startable wide receivers without investing heavily in high-end guys.

In my PPR league:
-Eleven receivers scored 15 PPG in 2019
-Low-end WR3s were only ~2 PPG behind low-end WR1s
-56 receivers scored 10+ PPG compared to 51 in 2018 and 45 in 2017

Add to all that the fact that we are seeing an influx of receivers from the 2020 class. We could be looking at a ton of guys putting up very similar numbers.

[dynastyninja]

The NFL is shifting it's ideology away from targeting 1 WR heavily

Great point, and it explains the top-end dropping and more guys producing at a respectable rate. The Texans got in on this with their Nuk/Cooks trades. They're just rolling out a lot of solid guys and not as concerned with having a Nuk.

[Hottoddies]

From an NFL stand point, it makes more sense to spread the targets out amongst a greater amount of receivers so defenses have a harder time shutting down the passing game.

[Sriracha]

The NFL is shifting it's ideology away from targeting 1 WR heavily

Great point, and it explains the top-end dropping and more guys producing at a respectable rate. The Texans got in on this with their Nuk/Cooks trades. They're just rolling out a lot of solid guys and not as concerned with having a Nuk.

Is it though? Or are we seeing a decline in the # of young, prototypical alpha WRs? Julio Jones is still seeing a massive target share, less than years previously but still comparable to other WR1s from past years. This slight decline in targets would've been expected as he loses 1/2 a step as he gets older; with or without schematic philosophy shifts.

Not saying it's one way or another, but I don't think the answer is as cut and dry as some people are making it out to be at this point in time.

I would say that the Texans are moreso emulating KC's "speed kills" offense than devaluing the WR1 target hog.

[M-Dub]

Let’s be honest, nobody really knows WTF the Texans are doing, including Bill O’Brien.

[Ice]

Let’s be honest, nobody really knows WTF the Texans are doing, including Bill O’Brien.

And Yet the Texans have won the AFC South 4 of the last 5 years. And 4 in his 6 year career as coach.

No idea how many teams have won their division that often outside of the Patriots but let's drag him through the mud anyway for good measure.