2020 Running Back Report

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Dynasty DeLorean
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2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 29, 2020 8:53 pm

Previous RB Reports
2019
2018
2017
2016

The Model aka Tiers are based strictly on numbers. A players numerical profile dictates which Tier they end up in. Scouting reports are for funsies. The model was designed to detect players that will rush for multiple thousand yard seasons.
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Sorry for the RB Report being so late this year, I do apologize to anyone who was looking forward to it. In any event, enough time has finally elapsed where I’ve been able to analyze what went right, what went wrong, and everything in-between. It’s also a talented and diverse RB class that has been fun to evaluate, which helps. I’ve written quite a lot in a short amount of time, so if you see any mistakes feel free to let me know. And as always, I’m happy to answer any questions asked in good faith.


News and Notes
  • There are 3 RB’s identified in this year’s report. Taylor, Akers, and Dillon qualify for Tier 1 (Power/Speed). No other RB hit for any other group although Swift was close, which is detailed later.
  • I’m changing Tier 4 “flash in the pan” to Tier 3, and Tier 3 “replaceable backs and dart throws” to Tier 4. I think this better represents the value and certainty of each group.
  • Enough time has elapsed where I was finally able to crunch some numbers on the hit rates of my model. If I did all my maths correctly, when we examine rb’s selected in the top 3 rounds from 2015-2017 and look for at least 1 1k yard rushing season, my model hit 83% of the time as opposed to 50% of the time for the field. If ignoring the 1st round rb’s and only focusing on the 2nd+3rd round rb’s drafted during the same time period, the difference is magnified to 75% hit rate for my model vs 33% for the field. More on this below.
  • Problem! My model is likely identifying players at too great a rate. One reason could be that the rb’s entering the league now are much better than from 10-15 years ago. Another reason could be that my model is identifying some players that will bust. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that it’s a bit of both. More on this later.
  • A trend I’ve been noticing is that the more data I collect, the more I’m able to simplify. I’m strongly considering combining Tier 1 (Speed/Power) and Tier 2 (Fake Bellcows) together at some point in the future. As time passes, I’m seeing the range of outcomes for each group (Tier 1 and Tier 2) expand into each other. Their criteria are exactly the same but for one minor difference, which if done away with means everything will be the identical. While I’ll hold off on making the change this year, I may start operating under the assumption that they are much more similar than I previously thought, and a change may be coming in future years.
  • The NFL switching to a 17 game season presents a bit of a problem for me as I judge my model’s accuracy based on 1k yard rushing seasons over the course of 16 games, not 17. I’ve thought about this and feel like the best way to move forward would be to keep the 1k yard rushing season but also include a qualifier of needing to reach a required YPG average (62.5 YPG or better) which would equate to a 1k yard rushing season in a 16 game schedule. It may not be perfect (what if a player rushes for 200 yards in their 17th game or something, propelling them over the cusp) but I feel like those types of situations will likely be few and far between. If anyone has any better ideas, feel free to let me know.

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2015-2017 Overview

Full Tier 1 + Tier 2 History since inception aka predicting players [# of 1k yard rushing seasons]
2020 – Jonathan Taylor
2020 – Cam Akers
2020 – AJ Dillon
2018 - Saquon Barkley [2]
2018 - Rashaad Penny [0]
2018 - Derrius Guice [0]
2018 – Nick Chubb [1]

2017 - Leonard Fournette [2]
2017 - Joe Mixon [2]
2017 - D'Onta Foreman [0]
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott [3]
2016 - Derrick Henry [2]
2015 - David Johnson [1]



Given my research has shown we should allow a full 3 years for a player to break out, let’s examine the first 3 years of my model to see how it has fared vs the field. Since there has not been an ample amount of time for analysis of multiple hit seasons, for now we will define a hit as 1 1k yard rushing season. Also, the criteria for players like CMC were revised last year so we’ll leave him out of my models hits for arguments sake. For hits from my model, I’ll use only the main lists (Tier 1 and Tier 2) as those were the original Tiers which is the foundation of the rb report. They're the most predictive and their criteria is practically identical. The other tiers were created later and it’s yet to be seen how predictive they truly are.

Complete NFL Draft (first 3 rounds)(hit = at least one 1k yard rushing season)
2015 - 8 taken top 3 rounds, 3 hits (Gurley[3], Gordon[1] , DJ[1])
2016 - 4 taken top 3 rounds, 2 hits (Zeke[3], Henry[2])
2017 – 8 taken top 3 rounds, 5 hits (Fournette[2], CMC[2], Cook[1], Mixon[2], Hunt[1])

Prospects selected within the top 3 NFL Draft Rounds that hit for at least one 1k yard rushing season;
My Model – 5 of 6 hit, for 83% hit rate
All Players – 10 of 20 hit, for 50% hit rate

Prospects selected within the top 3 NFL Draft Rounds that hit for multiple 1k yard rushing seasons;
My Model – 4 of 6 (67%)
All Players – 6 of 20 (30%)

Within the group of players that hit, percentage of players who hit for multiple 1k yard rushing seasons;
My Model – 4 of 5 (80%)
All Players – 6 of 10 (60%)

So we have an increased hit rate vs the field in all areas. When the players my model does identify hit, they hit harder aka they are more likely to put up multiple 1k yard rushing seasons than your typical hit. Keep in mind this is having to leave out Gurley whom I believe would have qualified had he done his athletic testing, and CMC who I am leaving out because I retroactively made a small common-sense change in one criteria to include him and DeAngelo Williams.

Now, we just so happened to have a crop of 1st round RBs from 2015-2017 that all hit for 1k yard seasons. You might be saying, your model's hit rate is great but 1st round Rb’s are all good and so you have a high hit rate... so what? Well firstly, 1st round Rb’s are absolutely not going to hit at this rate for forever. In 2012, you only had a hit rate of 1 of 3, the lone hit being Doug Martin. In 2010 the hit rate was 2 of 3. In 2009 again the hit rate was 2 of 3. So the hit rate for 1st round RB’s to get at least 1 1k rushing yard season is not naturally 100%. Let’s take the analysis one step further and remove 1st round RB’s and see what we have left.

Players selected in rounds 2-3 of NFL draft that hit for 1k yard rushing season;
My Model – 3 of 4 for 75% hit rate
All Players - 5 of 15 for 33% hit rate

That is a significant difference and I believe this is where my model really shows its value. 1st round RB’s are more likely than not to be productive, but sifting through the 2nd and 3rd round rb’s without guidance can be a minefield.


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The Busts

As time has passed, one thing is quite clear. There Will Be Bust. When I first started this project I had no data for busts, presumably for two reasons. The data I was using was pretty reliable going back a few years before 2015 but before that it got pretty spotty. So the players who washed out of the league quickly were not included in that data set, as they were no longer in the league and therefore not in the playerprofiler database when it was created. If we analyze the period of 2005-2014 (so before my model was created), there were 13 players retroactively identified by my model, or roughly 1.3 per year. Because they were hits, they were still in the league, and therefore in the data set, and therefor able to get a hit from my model. However, since my models inception, there have been 13 players identified (predicted) in a mere 6 years, or 2.2 per year. 1.3 to 2.2 is a pretty big difference. Now, I think there are 2 factors at play here. One is that the RB talent entering the NFL these past few years has been significantly better than during the period of 2005-2014. However, the 2nd factor is that clearly there were players who would have been identified by the model but busted, and because they busted were therefor washed out of the league before they were able to have their data entered into the database and in turn then be picked up by my analysis. If we were to split the difference between these two factors (better talent entering the league now and missed busts in the past) we would get an average of 1.75 players who in theory should be being identified by the model per year that won’t bust, we’ll call them true hits per year. That means it is likely that roughly 2 (which would amount to 1.83 true hits per year) to 3 (leading to an average of 1.67 true hits per year) of the players identified by my model between the years of 2015-2020 will bust. But which ones? Let’s find out…

Looking back, there are players here and there that may have qualified for my model but I just don’t have accurate data for. Kevin Jones is a guy back from 2004 who might have qualified for my model and hit is rookie year but then his career was derailed by injuries. Let’s look at the current bust candidates. D’Onta Foreman is a guy that looks extremely likely to be a bust. He has not broken out for a full 3 years and his career has been derailed by injuries, among other things. Penny is the 2nd highest bust risk imo, who is looking extremely unlikely to break out in his 3rd year as he may start the year on the PUP list. You could say the same for Guice, however he is healthy going into his 3rd year and has looked great (or at least much better than Foreman and Penny) when on the field. So for now let’s examine Foreman and Penny and see what we can learn.

Both Foreman and Penny;
  • 1 big final collegiate season (Kevin Jones also had this)

  • Terrible at pass pro

  • Issues with being overweight

  • 1 cut and go runners, not overly dynamic, you could argue stiff hips

  • Of the players identified as hits by my model, the fantasy community as a whole regarded Foreman and Penny the lowest in their respective classes

  • Suffered injuries in NFL


Now I overlooked a lot of these issues because there is a lot to like about each player as well. But in hindsight they share a lot of the same problems. I think the pass pro and weight issues stem from a lack of work ethic, and I think that might be the most worrisome. I don’t believe any one issue is a huge deal in and of itself (you could argue Derrick Henry played a bit stiff and straight-linish, Fournette had weight problems, Melvin Gordon was not good at pass blocking, etc) but several or all issues combined may present a confluence of mitigating factors that a player just can’t overcome. I think injuries in the NFL, particularly significant injuries, can also result in a bust, however I’m not sure you can forecast that sort of thing. It was said by the Seahawks that Penny was drafted, in part, because of his supposed durability. In any event, I think it’s good to analyze what went wrong and see if we can identify any future players as potential busts. Interestingly enough, where a player was drafted (assuming top 3 round draft capital) doesn’t necessarily seem to affect bust risk as long as they fit my models criteria.

The 3 players this year are Taylor, Akers and Dillon. Dillon is the lowest rated of the group so let’s examine his bust risk factors;
  • He did not have 1 final big collegiate season (none of the 3 did). All 3 were productive, with the 1st and 3rd being most productive.
  • He is not terrible at pass pro (none of the 3 are).
  • His weight is high but he’s very fit, muscular and well built… he carries his weight well.
  • He is ideally a 1 cut and go runner, however he does have loose hips to me.
  • He is the lowest rated of the hits
So while Dillon does have some bust traits, you could make an argument for anywhere between 1-3 (lowest rated, straight-linish runner, high weight), it’s nowhere near as bad as Foreman and Penny. I think he’s for sure riskier than Taylor and Akers because he is a more limited player but not as risky as Foreman and arguably less risky than Penny as well, according to these criteria. Circling back, the aforementioned Guice doesn’t fit any of these bust risk factors (aside from the injuries, uggghhhh), so I still have a lot of faith in him.

Trying to find an overall bust rate (and since only 5 years have elapsed I’ll again just use a single 1k yard rushing season for right now), currently the model has an 83% hit rate when all prospects are given a full 3 years to hit. The way it seems to me is that Foreman is trending to be a bust, and one of Penny/Guice is trending to be a bust (my guess is Penny for the reasons outlined above). That would be 2 busts for 10 players, or 80% hit rate and 20% bust rate. Given that none of the 2020 prospects display many bust-risk factors, nor Guice, plus the fact that Gurley wasn’t able to test athletically, I think the real hit rate may end up being somewhere around 85% with a 15% bust rate, which more closely mirrors the hit/bust rate for the players that have been given the proper amount of time as detailed above. Again, that is only for a single 1k yard rushing season, and we are really looking for 2 or more, ideally 3+. But for that we simply need more time, no other way around it.



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Player Scouting Reports

AJ Dillon
I really like his low pad level for a man of his size. For example, I thought Rashaad Penny struggled with things like pad level when watching his film, Penny was too upright a lot of the time. Dillon has good contact balance, paired with better than expected burst through the line. Given that he’s 247 lbs he’s much quicker than I thought he would be. Obviously he’s not the most agile player but he’s shifty enough, he’s got a decent jump cut and foot quickness is ok. Dillon has good top speed and is a load to bring down. Fluid athlete with flexible hips. The one big criticism I have of Dillon is that once he gets past the LOS he’s not the most creative runner. I had the same criticism of Chubb though and he just racked up nearly 1500 rushing yards this past year so it may not be that big of a deal. His weight is very high but he’s well built. That said, I think he could benefit from losing 10 lbs or so to add just a bit more quickness and flexibility. He’s not a plus in the passing game but I don’t think he’s not a minus either. He’s adequate at pass blocking and can catch most balls thrown at him. Most of his receptions will probably be the Fournette type though, screens, dumpoffs. Dillon is not a good route runner imo.

Comps
High – Ricky Williams
Low – Eddie Lacy




Jonathan Taylor
Very similar to Dillon but an upgrade in basically every area. Noticeably lighter and quicker. One noteworthy difference is that in the games I watched, Taylor was not utilized to pass block much. Instead he ran out into the flat most of the time. I can understand why a player like CEH would go ahead of Taylor is a team was looking for a sure-thing in the passing game. I don’t think Taylor is incapable though, he’ll just have to earn it similar to Fournette. His college target share (which to me is a predictive stat when transitioning to the NFL) is actually well above average.

Comps
High – Ladanian Tomlinson. Comping Taylor to LT is probably a bit of a reach, but given JT's incredible profile it's hard to think of anyone else to comp him to.
Low – Fournette type




DeAndre Swift
I really like Swift but one thing that stood out to me was a seemingly apparent lack of burst and power. I had completely forgotten what his combine measurements were and was somewhat shocked that he ran a 4.48. When I watch Swift I see somewhat of a savant, in that he’ll make up for any shortcomings with a natural feel for the position. I really like his contact balance and ability to run through arm tackles. I love his ability to create and overall feel for the game. He was asked to pass pro a lot and was good in pass pro and good as a receiver. Overall there is a lot to like here, and I think a Kamara comp is actually warranted. Pairing him with Kerryon who theoretically would handle more of the inside work and Swift the outside work seems to make sense.

While no other rb’s qualified for current criteria, Swift was very close to the “Flash in the Pan” group which is near certainty for 1-2 1k yard rushing seasons. Given that the sample size is so small for that group (and therefore I’m less able to refine the criteria along with their parameters), I’m not opposed to making a minor adjustment to the one criteria he fell short of. However, that is probably something I’ll do in the future after seeing how Swift pans out.

Comps
High – Alvin Kamara
Low – Devonta Freeman



J.K. Dobbins
I was a bit startled that he only weighed in at 209 lbs. Dobbins was maybe the most hot and cold player I’ve watched this year. I like his overall power and athleticism. I feel like he was questionable in the passing game. At times he could line up and stone an oncoming rusher, other times (notably against Wisconsin) he was pushed around a LOT by defenders. In the receiving game, he could make great plays and other time bad plays. For the most part I liked what I saw, but there were enough question marks to make me wonder if he’s going to be ready to unseat Ingram this year. My bet would be no.
40- 4.32
20 yard dash - 2.48
10 yard - 1.44
Vert - 36.5
Broad - 129
https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html
If Dobbins would have put up these numbers at the combine or pro day, he would have qualified for the Tier 1 Power/Speed list. It's very unfortunate that he didn't get a chance to test so that we could know for sure.

Comps




CEH
Maybe someone who pays attention to college football can fill me in. Typically, when I watch film I start from the beginning and end at the end. However, this year I went the lazy route and just watched the games in order of how they popped up on youtube, which tended to be from last to first. The first few games I watched, he looked horrible. I was stunned and in disbelief. But the further back I went, the better he looked. I was watching 2 completely different players. I eventually got curious enough to google if he had an injury and sure enough, in December I think it was before his final few games he had a somewhat significant hamstring injury. So I’m inclined to believe that this is why he looked so different. Regardless, in the most recent games I watched he straight up looked like a turd. However the games further back, he looked pretty good. Good initial burst, ability to break arm tackles, and good shiftiness. A plus as a receiver but was not asked to pass block much and when he did it was spotty. There are a few concerns I have with him. When he’s completely healthy, yeah he’ll probably look good. But in the NFL you have to play through injuries a lot and I question how well he’ll play through them. Second is that he did not look like the most natural inside runner to me, which again makes me question if he’ll ever be the unquestioned bellcow. I think for the most part my concerns don’t really matter because his main value will come from catching passes, and I think he’ll be very good at that. But I think if you believe he’s gonna be CMC or anything close to it you may be misguided.

Comps
I think the Westbrook comp is very valid




Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Solid all-around player but looks more like a high quality backup that may get chances to start rather than a high quality starter. I’m not seeing any difference-making traits. I like him, I think he’s fine, but he would be clearly below the other 5 rbs in this class.




Cam Akers
I like his prototypical size, his burst, speed and athleticism. I like the fact that he was arguably the best rusher, passer and blocker on his entire team. The common criticism of Akers that I see is that he is “raw”, and while that may be the case I don’t know how anyone could judge anything he did behind that atrocity of an offensive line. I haven’t seen an offensive line that bad since I scouted David Johnson back in 2015. What really excites me about Akers is his upside in the receiving game. He was asked to pass block A LOT, and he did really well in that area. He extends his arms and uses his hands to catch the ball. He shredded the RB drills at the combine. I love his fit with the Rams. Goff isn’t great but it could be a lot worse. The O-line is said to be subpar, but the same was said about the Seattle O-line as an argument against Penny and yet Penny’s career YPC is 5.3 and Carsons YPC during the same time period is 4.5. I love the fit with an innovative head coach that will likely maximize his abilities and I love the fact that he has zero competition there in the long-term and close to zero imo (we’ll have to see given the shortened covid offseason though) in the short term given Akers proficiency in the receiving game. I have no idea why more people aren’t higher on him.

Comps
Lynch is one of a kind but from an overall prospect profile coming out of college, Marshawn Lynch. I realize I also comp'ed Guice to Lynch 2 years ago, but that was more running style rather than overall profile. I don't think Akers will be a Lynch-type of runner, but I couldn't come up with a better comp.





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Full Player Tier Listing

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Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs [Power/Speed]

2020 – Jonathan Taylor
2020 – Cam Akers
2020 – AJ Dillon

2018 - Saquon Barkley
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2018 - Derrius Guice
2017 - Leonard Fournette
2017 - D'Onta Foreman
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2016 - Derrick Henry
2015 - David Johnson
2011 - DeMarco Murray
2010 - Ryan Mathews
2008 - Darren McFadden
2008 - Chris Johnson
2008 - Matt Forte
2008 - Jamaal Charles
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2007 - Marshawn Lynch
2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 - Steven Jackson
2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson


Tier 1 – Long-Term Studs [Wiggle/Agility]

2017 – Christian McCaffrey
2013 – Le’Veon Bell
2009 – LeSean McCoy
2008 – Ray Rice


players on this list (at least the ones who were given ample time and opportunity so far) have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Most have 3+.

Foreman trending to be the first official bust of this list.

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Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram, Todd Gurley [no athletic testing for Gurley] are players who have attained 3+ 1k yard rushing seasons that don’t qualify for any of the above lists. A trend I’ve noticed is that outliers (good or bad) seem to miss the combine. Foster, Gore, Gurley, Foreman all missed the NFL Combine and athletic testing had to be taken from their respective pro days. Gurley was still injured so he did not have a pro day either.

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Tier 2 – Fake Bellcows

2018 - Nick Chubb
2017 - Joe Mixon
2012 - Lamar Miller
2008 - Jonathan Stewart

The players on this list are often good football players but just never really seem to live up to expectations. Seems to be a near certainty they will rush for 1-2 thousand yard seasons but none have 3 or more. As noted earlier, I’m contemplating combining this tier with Tier 1 Power/Speed by making the parameters of their criteria the same.


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Tier 3 – Flash In The Pan

2014 - Carlos Hyde
2013 - Eddie Lacy
2012 - Trent Richardson
2012 - Doug Martin
2006 - DeAngelo Williams

These are running backs that start off red hot but then cool quickly. Great potential for at least 1 1k yard season but maximum of 2. No additions this year.

This year Swift is very close to this Tier and I may look to make a change to it in the future.


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Tier 4 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws

Year__Pick____Name
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele

____Undrafted
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis


I separated the list into drafted and undrafted players because as you can see the drafted players have a much better hit rate and also a much higher ceiling overall. Drafted players on this list are likely to get at least 1k rushing season under the belt but none have more than 2.

Since this lists inception a few years ago (I believe I created this in 2017), none of Dixon, Freeman or Armstead have hit yet, which gives me pause to the veracity of this Tier.


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Tier 5 – Pass Catchers

Year__Pick____Name
2015 - 3.13 - Duke Johnson
2014 - 2.22 - Bishop Sankey
2013 - 2.05 - Giovani Bernard
2011 - 2.24 - Shane Vereen
2008 - UDFA - Danny Woodhead
2005 - 4.29 - Darren Sproles

Test Cases
Year__Pick____Name
2018 - 4.34 - Chase Edmonds
2017 - 5.39 - Aaron Jones


This tier is composed of players that likely won’t be 3-down RB’s (none have had a 1,000 yard rushing season) but may be valuable pass catchers (most have had multiple years of 40 or even 50+ receptions) and carry good value in PPR leagues. They have good longevity, as you can see the list is composed of players stretching from over a decade ago that are still active in the league.

The test cases are players who missed the requirements by a slim margin. I may take off the test cases next year.

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Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sat May 30, 2020 11:51 am, edited 5 times in total.

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ThunderTung
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby ThunderTung » Fri May 29, 2020 9:18 pm

i guess im confused, i understand that everyone outside of the 3 backs you mentioned didnt meet the criteria of any of the tiers, but what does that mean exactly? does this system just not allow you to predict what these backs will be? Should they all be considered busts based on this then? you mentioned changing the criteria next year for certain tiers, is that to say you believe that the current tiers are inadequate considering alot of what seem like very talented backs dont hit any of the tiers this year? Or should you create a new tier that analyzes the rest of the players that dont meet this criteria and see if there are any trends there year to year?


I'm assuming that you just took players that had similar careers, and tried to find similarities between them whether its physical attributes or anything else to construct these tiers. If thats the case then what do you think is contributing to so many backs not being readable, is it just consistent like that year to year or is this just a unique outlier of a year?

Interesting read nonetheless, apologies if you answered a question that i asked in the op. Hopefully this didnt come across as ignorant lol
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr

QB(1): Geno Smith
RB(2): ETN/Walker III
WR(2): Chase/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Stevenson/Garrett Wilson
K: Mcpherson
DL(2): T. Walker/Vea
LB(2): D. Long/TJ Edwards
DB(2) Dugger/Moehrig
FLEX: Kenneth Murray
IR: J. Hicks/Milano/Marcus Jones
Bench:
QB: Mac Jones/Bryce Young
RB: Zeke/D. Harris
WR: N. Brown/Demario Douglas/Bobby Trees/Parker/Tyler Scott
TE: Bellinger/Schultz
DL: Barrett/J. Davis/Yannick/
LB: Milano/Edwards/K. Murray/J. Smith
DB: Mathieu/Jonothan Owens

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 29, 2020 9:39 pm

ThunderTung wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 9:18 pm i guess im confused, i understand that everyone outside of the 3 backs you mentioned didnt meet the criteria of any of the tiers, but what does that mean exactly? does this system just not allow you to predict what these backs will be? Should they all be considered busts based on this then? you mentioned changing the criteria next year for certain tiers, is that to say you believe that the current tiers are inadequate considering alot of what seem like very talented backs dont hit any of the tiers this year? Or should you create a new tier that analyzes the rest of the players that dont meet this criteria and see if there are any trends there year to year?


I'm assuming that you just took players that had similar careers, and tried to find similarities between them whether its physical attributes or anything else to construct these tiers. If thats the case then what do you think is contributing to so many backs not being readable, is it just consistent like that year to year or is this just a unique outlier of a year?

Interesting read nonetheless, apologies if you answered a question that i asked in the op. Hopefully this didnt come across as ignorant lol
If you haven't been following along for the past 5 years I get it could be confusing, because I like to talk through a lot of my thoughts and share with everyone instead of just posting a list and being done with it. If you have no idea what's going on, I would pay most attention to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 lists, which have been essentially the same since 2015. The others are more... experimental. No, i'm not going to customize a tier that fits ceh, for example. In fact, i'm not making any changes... like I said, I just like to talk through what i'm thinking. I've been refining this for over 5 years now, if anything my goal is to simplify not to complicate.

If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else. So that's why only 3 RB's have been identified. Most backs aren't "readable" because most backs will not be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It happens a lot less often than you might think.

I would really really try to avoid making inferences and assumptions. I feel like I've written exactly what I meant. Hopefully I've answered your questions in a way that makes sense.

edit: I'm just now realizing I didn't include the little paragraph at the beginning that explains literally everything. Basically I have a database of nearly 600 players now in Excel (each year I add the incoming rookie class) and if I want the Tier 1 Power/Speed list I run the Tier 1 Power/Speed Query which has a set criteria and parameters for each criteria. It combs through the database and if a player hits all the marks that I set back in 2015 then it pops up in a nice little list. Tier 1 and Tier 2 we've had lots of hits since 2015 and everything's been going smoothly, I've been able to see that the criteria I set in 2015 are sorting players as intended. I made the note about Swift because up until now, we really haven't had a player even remotely close to qualifying for the Tier 3 list since 2015, so it was quite an interesting new development.

Added links to the previous years RB reports at the top. Any question you have is probably answered in there.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby djeternal2 » Fri May 29, 2020 10:49 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 8:53 pm Previous RB Reports
2019
2018
2017
2016
____________________________________________________________

Sorry for the RB Report being so late this year, I do apologize to anyone who was looking forward to it. In any event, enough time has finally elapsed where I’ve been able to analyze what went right, what went wrong, and everything in-between. It’s also a talented and diverse RB class that has been fun to evaluate, which helps. I’ve written quite a lot in a short amount of time, so if you see any mistakes feel free to let me know. And as always, I’m happy to answer any questions asked in good faith.


News and Notes
  • There are 3 RB’s identified in this year’s report. Taylor, Akers, and Dillon qualify for Tier 1 (Power/Speed). No other RB hit for any other group although Swift was close, which is detailed later.
  • I’m changing Tier 4 “flash in the pan” to Tier 3, and Tier 3 “replaceable backs and dart throws” to Tier 4. I think this better represents the value and certainty of each group.
  • Enough time has elapsed where I was finally able to crunch some numbers on the hit rates of my model. If I did all my maths correctly, when we examine rb’s selected in the top 3 rounds from 2015-2017 and look for at least 1 1k yard rushing season, my model hit 83% of the time as opposed to 50% of the time for the field. If ignoring the 1st round rb’s and only focusing on the 2nd+3rd round rb’s drafted during the same time period, the difference is magnified to 75% hit rate for my model vs 33% for the field. More on this below.


  • Problem! My model is likely identifying players at too great a rate. One reason could be that the rb’s entering the league now are much better than from 10-15 years ago. Another reason could be that my model is identifying some players that will bust. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that it’s a bit of both. More on this later.

____________________________________________________________
Hold the F on. From your 2017 report:

"The players on this list;
-Have roughly an 80% chance of rushing for 3+ 1,000 yard seasons.
-All have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons."

That is YOUR definition of a stud aka a hit. Based on your original definition you are 50/50 not including this year's RBs. So based on what is bolded you have completely moved the goalposts which invalidates any previous reports. In otherwords your "model" isn't predictive at all. You put together some guys that may or may not hit the 1k for 1 season benchmark which anyone can do.

Your own words from 5/29 in this thread:

"If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else.".

So why are you moving the goalposts? Is this to make your "model" look much better than it actually is? Seems like that is the most likely explanation. Feels very much like Occam's razor here.

On another note the fact that you have Leveon Bell in a wiggle/agility tier as a prospect because frankly that's what you are doing your writeups as he was in no way shape or form a wiggle/agility RB. He came into the league as a heavy power back ala Jerome Bettis. After his forgettable rookie year for a wiggle/agility back he transformed his body (cut weight) which led to better agility and lighter feet which led to the Leveon Bell we know. So please spare my intellect by not trying to argue that your "model" predicted Bell would cut a bunch of weight between year 1 & 2 and transform himself into a different type of back.

But hey I'm just a hater and you & Mike can go have a pity party and drink some Smirnoff Ice while bitching about me.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 29, 2020 11:02 pm

djeternal2 wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 10:49 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 8:53 pm Previous RB Reports
2019
2018
2017
2016
____________________________________________________________

Sorry for the RB Report being so late this year, I do apologize to anyone who was looking forward to it. In any event, enough time has finally elapsed where I’ve been able to analyze what went right, what went wrong, and everything in-between. It’s also a talented and diverse RB class that has been fun to evaluate, which helps. I’ve written quite a lot in a short amount of time, so if you see any mistakes feel free to let me know. And as always, I’m happy to answer any questions asked in good faith.


News and Notes
  • There are 3 RB’s identified in this year’s report. Taylor, Akers, and Dillon qualify for Tier 1 (Power/Speed). No other RB hit for any other group although Swift was close, which is detailed later.
  • I’m changing Tier 4 “flash in the pan” to Tier 3, and Tier 3 “replaceable backs and dart throws” to Tier 4. I think this better represents the value and certainty of each group.
  • Enough time has elapsed where I was finally able to crunch some numbers on the hit rates of my model. If I did all my maths correctly, when we examine rb’s selected in the top 3 rounds from 2015-2017 and look for at least 1 1k yard rushing season, my model hit 83% of the time as opposed to 50% of the time for the field. If ignoring the 1st round rb’s and only focusing on the 2nd+3rd round rb’s drafted during the same time period, the difference is magnified to 75% hit rate for my model vs 33% for the field. More on this below.


  • Problem! My model is likely identifying players at too great a rate. One reason could be that the rb’s entering the league now are much better than from 10-15 years ago. Another reason could be that my model is identifying some players that will bust. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that it’s a bit of both. More on this later.

____________________________________________________________
Hold the F on. From your 2017 report:

"The players on this list;
-Have roughly an 80% chance of rushing for 3+ 1,000 yard seasons.
-All have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons."

That is YOUR definition of a stud aka a hit. Based on your original definition you are 50/50 not including this year's RBs. So based on what is bolded you have completely moved the goalposts which invalidates any previous reports. In otherwords your "model" isn't predictive at all. You put together some guys that may or may not hit the 1k for 1 season benchmark which anyone can do.

Your own words from 5/29 in this thread:

"If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else.".

So why are you moving the goalposts? Is this to make your "model" look much better than it actually is? Seems like that is the most likely explanation. Feels very much like Occam's razor here.

On another note the fact that you have Leveon Bell in a wiggle/agility tier as a prospect because frankly that's what you are doing your writeups as he was in no way shape or form a wiggle/agility RB. He came into the league as a heavy power back ala Jerome Bettis. After his forgettable rookie year for a wiggle/agility back he transformed his body (cut weight) which led to better agility and lighter feet which led to the Leveon Bell we know. So please spare my intellect by not trying to argue that your "model" predicted Bell would cut a bunch of weight between year 1 & 2 and transform himself into a different type of back.

But hey I'm just a hater and you & Mike can go have a pity party and drink some Smirnoff Ice while bitching about me.
Hi Troll :wave:
Given my research has shown we should allow a full 3 years for a player to break out, let’s examine the first 3 years of my model to see how it has fared vs the field. Since there has not been an ample amount of time for analysis of multiple hit seasons, for now we will define a hit as 1 1k yard rushing season.
Again, that is only for a single 1k yard rushing season, and we are really looking for 2 or more, ideally 3+. But for that we simply need more time, no other way around it.
Did not "change the goalposts", I was just posting an analysis of a set time period for a set criteria, as stated.

And I'm sorry, but did Le'Veon Bell NOT run a 6.75 second [95th percentile] 3-cone?

Bye Troll :wave:

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby djeternal2 » Fri May 29, 2020 11:09 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 11:02 pm
djeternal2 wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 10:49 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 8:53 pm Previous RB Reports
2019
2018
2017
2016
____________________________________________________________

Sorry for the RB Report being so late this year, I do apologize to anyone who was looking forward to it. In any event, enough time has finally elapsed where I’ve been able to analyze what went right, what went wrong, and everything in-between. It’s also a talented and diverse RB class that has been fun to evaluate, which helps. I’ve written quite a lot in a short amount of time, so if you see any mistakes feel free to let me know. And as always, I’m happy to answer any questions asked in good faith.


News and Notes
  • There are 3 RB’s identified in this year’s report. Taylor, Akers, and Dillon qualify for Tier 1 (Power/Speed). No other RB hit for any other group although Swift was close, which is detailed later.
  • I’m changing Tier 4 “flash in the pan” to Tier 3, and Tier 3 “replaceable backs and dart throws” to Tier 4. I think this better represents the value and certainty of each group.
  • Enough time has elapsed where I was finally able to crunch some numbers on the hit rates of my model. If I did all my maths correctly, when we examine rb’s selected in the top 3 rounds from 2015-2017 and look for at least 1 1k yard rushing season, my model hit 83% of the time as opposed to 50% of the time for the field. If ignoring the 1st round rb’s and only focusing on the 2nd+3rd round rb’s drafted during the same time period, the difference is magnified to 75% hit rate for my model vs 33% for the field. More on this below.


  • Problem! My model is likely identifying players at too great a rate. One reason could be that the rb’s entering the league now are much better than from 10-15 years ago. Another reason could be that my model is identifying some players that will bust. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that it’s a bit of both. More on this later.

____________________________________________________________
Hold the F on. From your 2017 report:

"The players on this list;
-Have roughly an 80% chance of rushing for 3+ 1,000 yard seasons.
-All have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons."

That is YOUR definition of a stud aka a hit. Based on your original definition you are 50/50 not including this year's RBs. So based on what is bolded you have completely moved the goalposts which invalidates any previous reports. In otherwords your "model" isn't predictive at all. You put together some guys that may or may not hit the 1k for 1 season benchmark which anyone can do.

Your own words from 5/29 in this thread:

"If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else.".

So why are you moving the goalposts? Is this to make your "model" look much better than it actually is? Seems like that is the most likely explanation. Feels very much like Occam's razor here.

On another note the fact that you have Leveon Bell in a wiggle/agility tier as a prospect because frankly that's what you are doing your writeups as he was in no way shape or form a wiggle/agility RB. He came into the league as a heavy power back ala Jerome Bettis. After his forgettable rookie year for a wiggle/agility back he transformed his body (cut weight) which led to better agility and lighter feet which led to the Leveon Bell we know. So please spare my intellect by not trying to argue that your "model" predicted Bell would cut a bunch of weight between year 1 & 2 and transform himself into a different type of back.

But hey I'm just a hater and you & Mike can go have a pity party and drink some Smirnoff Ice while bitching about me.
Hi Troll :wave:
Given my research has shown we should allow a full 3 years for a player to break out, let’s examine the first 3 years of my model to see how it has fared vs the field. Since there has not been an ample amount of time for analysis of multiple hit seasons, for now we will define a hit as 1 1k yard rushing season.
Again, that is only for a single 1k yard rushing season, and we are really looking for 2 or more, ideally 3+. But for that we simply need more time, no other way around it.
Did not "change the goalposts", I was just posting an analysis of a set time period for a set criteria, as stated.

And I'm sorry, but did Le'Veon Bell NOT run a 6.75 second [95th percentile] 3-cone?

Bye Troll :wave:
Yep that's me, a troll. Go look at my post history. I'm such a troll that I call people out on their BS. I expected this kind of response from you. I'm actually surprised you haven't deleted all your previous RB reports like you did in 2015.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby nathanq42 » Sat May 30, 2020 12:04 am

Hey, really like it all as usual. Just wondering where those analyzed but not in tier 1 would sort into your tier system? I just couldn't find them and thought it was odd they weren't anywhere in the tiers yet had section in your analysis. Ie. I don't think dobbins or CEH are given a slot in any tier even in their part of the report. Also I think you forgot about the comps for dobbins, there is the heading but no comps given.

Quick ask too. Do you think with the NFL shifting to an extremely heavy emphasis on passing, that the model based on looking at studs retrospectively won't give guys like CEH/CMC/Kamara/swift their due while going through the process since they don't fit the prototypical RB model from a decade ago when everything was big strong fast guys beating defenses into submission for the most part.
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Hottoddies » Sat May 30, 2020 12:04 am

Was not including Phillip Lindsy (2 1k seasons) and Arian Foster (4 1k seasons) on the undrafted section an oversight?
Last edited by Hottoddies on Sat May 30, 2020 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby cantguardjake » Sat May 30, 2020 12:12 am

The fact that he didn’t realise Bell ran a unbelievable 3 cone time speaks volumes lol you’ve only mentioned that in the last few reports, but whatevs.

Great stuff as usual. Your comments on Akers is why I have come around on him, I just don’t see how at the very least doesn’t hang around as a threat in the passing game.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Hottoddies » Sat May 30, 2020 12:28 am

Hottoddies wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:04 am Was not including Phillip Lindsy (2 1k seasons) and Arian Foster (4 1k seasons) on the undrafted section an oversight?
Sorry, I overlooked the outliers' disclaimer about the lack of combine testing data. Never mind.
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby ThunderTung » Sat May 30, 2020 12:34 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 9:39 pm
ThunderTung wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 9:18 pm i guess im confused, i understand that everyone outside of the 3 backs you mentioned didnt meet the criteria of any of the tiers, but what does that mean exactly? does this system just not allow you to predict what these backs will be? Should they all be considered busts based on this then? you mentioned changing the criteria next year for certain tiers, is that to say you believe that the current tiers are inadequate considering alot of what seem like very talented backs dont hit any of the tiers this year? Or should you create a new tier that analyzes the rest of the players that dont meet this criteria and see if there are any trends there year to year?


I'm assuming that you just took players that had similar careers, and tried to find similarities between them whether its physical attributes or anything else to construct these tiers. If thats the case then what do you think is contributing to so many backs not being readable, is it just consistent like that year to year or is this just a unique outlier of a year?

Interesting read nonetheless, apologies if you answered a question that i asked in the op. Hopefully this didnt come across as ignorant lol
If you haven't been following along for the past 5 years I get it could be confusing, because I like to talk through a lot of my thoughts and share with everyone instead of just posting a list and being done with it. If you have no idea what's going on, I would pay most attention to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 lists, which have been essentially the same since 2015. The others are more... experimental. No, i'm not going to customize a tier that fits ceh, for example. In fact, i'm not making any changes... like I said, I just like to talk through what i'm thinking. I've been refining this for over 5 years now, if anything my goal is to simplify not to complicate.

If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else. So that's why only 3 RB's have been identified. Most backs aren't "readable" because most backs will not be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It happens a lot less often than you might think.

I would really really try to avoid making inferences and assumptions. I feel like I've written exactly what I meant. Hopefully I've answered your questions in a way that makes sense.

edit: I'm just now realizing I didn't include the little paragraph at the beginning that explains literally everything. Basically I have a database of nearly 600 players now in Excel (each year I add the incoming rookie class) and if I want the Tier 1 Power/Speed list I run the Tier 1 Power/Speed Query which has a set criteria and parameters for each criteria. It combs through the database and if a player hits all the marks that I set back in 2015 then it pops up in a nice little list. Tier 1 and Tier 2 we've had lots of hits since 2015 and everything's been going smoothly, I've been able to see that the criteria I set in 2015 are sorting players as intended. I made the note about Swift because up until now, we really haven't had a player even remotely close to qualifying for the Tier 3 list since 2015, so it was quite an interesting new development.

Added links to the previous years RB reports at the top. Any question you have is probably answered in there.
I gotta be honest, i've combed through the previous years, and i just dont see this having any correlation to anything. Now in your defense i didnt spend hours going through your reports and comparing them to results, but just on paper and at initial glance, everything seems....random (which yea the draft is a crapshoot regardless) and while i appreciate the time in effort you've obviously put into this, i just dont think it matters.

Last year you had 0 RB’s ranked in Tier 1, and while its still early. Taking away injuries and other factors, It definitely looks like Jacobs and Sanders are both capable of 2+ 1k rushing yard seasons.

In ’18 you had Guice, Penny, and Barkley in tier 1. And while Barkley definitely hit (one of the most surefire prospects we’ve seen in years) Both Guice and Penny look like busts. You also had Chubb In tier 2 which respectively could be spot on, if of course he never has another 1k yard season which seems unlikely (im counting 996 as 1k yard)

In ’17 you had Fournette and Foreman in tier 1, and while Fournette could be accurate if he can stay healthy, he was drafted 4th overall so its definitely not groundbreaking. And for Foreman, well I dont think I have to say much about what he’s accomplished. You also had Mixon as a tier 2 which again I expect him to rush for 1k yards next season, which would break the predictive criteria of tier 2

’16 seems incomplete so I wont go into it.

On top of all of that, im finding alot of your personal analysis to just be wrong. You called last years class one of the worst rb classes we’ve ever seen and we already have 2 studs breakout from that group.

In ’18 you called freeman a safe investment, and you said you’d be okay drafting Rojo over Chubb, you called Kerryon a “turd sandwich” and in all fairness he hasnt been great, but he hasnt been all that terrible either. Though you did say Chubb could be one of the better RB’s out of this class, ill give you that.

In ’17 I think you were spot on with Mixon, however you killed Dalvin Cook as an “unremarked” and “overhyped in every way” You also killed Cmc talking about how your not even sure he’s going to be a RB and basically dismissed him.

On top of all of that, you have receiving backs as a separate tier instead of grouping them in with everyone which doesnt make any sense whatsoever.

I really only picked the analysis that had a personal opinion attached to them as far as how you think they’ll do. And maybe its unfair to beat you up for those as no one is right every time.

This isnt meant to dismiss your work, even if it seems like it. I’m just trying to make a point that I dont feel like any of this matters. I have to imagine your Hit rate is a bit inflated (not by you) but by raw numbers, for example Chubb was 4 yards away from 1k so technically he didnt hit it. Because from what I’ve seen theres no way its that high, and even if it is by technical numbers, I think its a bit dishonest to tout that number based on the yearly analysis I posted above. If im missing something please correct me.

Again I dont want to kill you for this, I can tell how much time you’ve put into it. But with inconsistent and unclear tiers and them constantly changing, on top of an inconstancy with the accuracy of them. Personally I have to take all of this with a grain of salt.
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr

QB(1): Geno Smith
RB(2): ETN/Walker III
WR(2): Chase/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Stevenson/Garrett Wilson
K: Mcpherson
DL(2): T. Walker/Vea
LB(2): D. Long/TJ Edwards
DB(2) Dugger/Moehrig
FLEX: Kenneth Murray
IR: J. Hicks/Milano/Marcus Jones
Bench:
QB: Mac Jones/Bryce Young
RB: Zeke/D. Harris
WR: N. Brown/Demario Douglas/Bobby Trees/Parker/Tyler Scott
TE: Bellinger/Schultz
DL: Barrett/J. Davis/Yannick/
LB: Milano/Edwards/K. Murray/J. Smith
DB: Mathieu/Jonothan Owens

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 12:52 am

nathanq42 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:04 am Hey, really like it all as usual. Just wondering where those analyzed but not in tier 1 would sort into your tier system? I just couldn't find them and thought it was odd they weren't anywhere in the tiers yet had section in your analysis. Ie. I don't think dobbins or CEH are given a slot in any tier even in their part of the report. Also I think you forgot about the comps for dobbins, there is the heading but no comps given.

Quick ask too. Do you think with the NFL shifting to an extremely heavy emphasis on passing, that the model based on looking at studs retrospectively won't give guys like CEH/CMC/Kamara/swift their due while going through the process since they don't fit the prototypical RB model from a decade ago when everything was big strong fast guys beating defenses into submission for the most part.
1) The scouting report I do is just something extra. It actually has nothing to do with the tier system. A player is only included in a tier if their numbers (so things like draft pedigree, college production and athletic ability) warrants them being there. As for Dobbins, I couldn't really think of a good comp so I just left it blank. With Dobbins I was toying with the idea of Doug Martin as his comp, but didn't feel like going back to watch old Doug Martin tape to confirm, so just left it blank lol.

2) I did make a revision that happened to include CMC into the Tier 1 Agility, I think last year? Do I think it's possible to change what i'm doing to include CEH, Kamara, Swift because of the changing landscape of the NFL. No, I do not. What i'm doing is all based on numbers, and by the numbers, there are unfortunately a lot of guys that "look" like ceh, swift and kamara. The range of outcomes is just too great to predict anything with much certainty, at least from my findings.

I do think you bring up an interesting point though, which is let's pretend the same player of 15 years ago enters the NFL today, would his stats be the same. Would he have the same amount of 1k yard rushing seasons. Maybe, but maybe not. The top guys, the Zeke's, Saquons, etc... yeah, I think they will be about the same. But the guys a step below that, I think it's very possible they may get phased out sooner than they would have 15 years ago. If you look back at some of the all-time great Rb's of the past, some of their YPC/efficiency numbers were pretty awful for long stretches of time that I think teams today would not tolerate.


ThunderTung wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:34 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 9:39 pm
ThunderTung wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 9:18 pm i guess im confused, i understand that everyone outside of the 3 backs you mentioned didnt meet the criteria of any of the tiers, but what does that mean exactly? does this system just not allow you to predict what these backs will be? Should they all be considered busts based on this then? you mentioned changing the criteria next year for certain tiers, is that to say you believe that the current tiers are inadequate considering alot of what seem like very talented backs dont hit any of the tiers this year? Or should you create a new tier that analyzes the rest of the players that dont meet this criteria and see if there are any trends there year to year?


I'm assuming that you just took players that had similar careers, and tried to find similarities between them whether its physical attributes or anything else to construct these tiers. If thats the case then what do you think is contributing to so many backs not being readable, is it just consistent like that year to year or is this just a unique outlier of a year?

Interesting read nonetheless, apologies if you answered a question that i asked in the op. Hopefully this didnt come across as ignorant lol
If you haven't been following along for the past 5 years I get it could be confusing, because I like to talk through a lot of my thoughts and share with everyone instead of just posting a list and being done with it. If you have no idea what's going on, I would pay most attention to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 lists, which have been essentially the same since 2015. The others are more... experimental. No, i'm not going to customize a tier that fits ceh, for example. In fact, i'm not making any changes... like I said, I just like to talk through what i'm thinking. I've been refining this for over 5 years now, if anything my goal is to simplify not to complicate.

If a RB does not show up on a Tier 1 list, the only thing that means is it's pretty unlikely that they will be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It doesn't really mean anything else. When I started this, the point was to avoid busts by identifying RB's that were most likely to rush for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons, it wasn't meant to do anything else. So that's why only 3 RB's have been identified. Most backs aren't "readable" because most backs will not be rushing for 3 or more 1k yard rushing seasons. It happens a lot less often than you might think.

I would really really try to avoid making inferences and assumptions. I feel like I've written exactly what I meant. Hopefully I've answered your questions in a way that makes sense.

edit: I'm just now realizing I didn't include the little paragraph at the beginning that explains literally everything. Basically I have a database of nearly 600 players now in Excel (each year I add the incoming rookie class) and if I want the Tier 1 Power/Speed list I run the Tier 1 Power/Speed Query which has a set criteria and parameters for each criteria. It combs through the database and if a player hits all the marks that I set back in 2015 then it pops up in a nice little list. Tier 1 and Tier 2 we've had lots of hits since 2015 and everything's been going smoothly, I've been able to see that the criteria I set in 2015 are sorting players as intended. I made the note about Swift because up until now, we really haven't had a player even remotely close to qualifying for the Tier 3 list since 2015, so it was quite an interesting new development.

Added links to the previous years RB reports at the top. Any question you have is probably answered in there.
I gotta be honest, i've combed through the previous years, and i just dont see this having any correlation to anything. Now in your defense i didnt spend hours going through your reports and comparing them to results, but just on paper and at initial glance, everything seems....random (which yea the draft is a crapshoot regardless) and while i appreciate the time in effort you've obviously put into this, i just dont think it matters.

Last year you had 0 RB’s ranked in Tier 1, and while its still early. Taking away injuries and other factors, It definitely looks like Jacobs and Sanders are both capable of 2+ 1k rushing yard seasons.

In ’18 you had Guice, Penny, and Barkley in tier 1. And while Barkley definitely hit (one of the most surefire prospects we’ve seen in years) Both Guice and Penny look like busts. You also had Chubb In tier 2 which respectively could be spot on, if of course he never has another 1k yard season which seems unlikely (im counting 996 as 1k yard)

In ’17 you had Fournette and Foreman in tier 1, and while Fournette could be accurate if he can stay healthy, he was drafted 4th overall so its definitely not groundbreaking. And for Foreman, well I dont think I have to say much about what he’s accomplished. You also had Mixon as a tier 2 which again I expect him to rush for 1k yards next season, which would break the predictive criteria of tier 2

’16 seems incomplete so I wont go into it.

On top of all of that, im finding alot of your personal analysis to just be wrong. You called last years class one of the worst rb classes we’ve ever seen and we already have 2 studs breakout from that group.

In ’18 you called freeman a safe investment, and you said you’d be okay drafting Rojo over Chubb, you called Kerryon a “turd sandwich” and in all fairness he hasnt been great, but he hasnt been all that terrible either. Though you did say Chubb could be one of the better RB’s out of this class, ill give you that.

In ’17 I think you were spot on with Mixon, however you killed Dalvin Cook as an “unremarked” and “overhyped in every way” You also killed Cmc talking about how your not even sure he’s going to be a RB and basically dismissed him.

On top of all of that, you have receiving backs as a separate tier instead of grouping them in with everyone which doesnt make any sense whatsoever.

I really only picked the analysis that had a personal opinion attached to them as far as how you think they’ll do. And maybe its unfair to beat you up for those as no one is right every time.

This isnt meant to dismiss your work, even if it seems like it. I’m just trying to make a point that I dont feel like any of this matters. I have to imagine your Hit rate is a bit inflated (not by you) but by raw numbers, for example Chubb was 4 yards away from 1k so technically he didnt hit it. Because from what I’ve seen theres no way its that high, and even if it is by technical numbers, I think its a bit dishonest to tout that number based on the yearly analysis I posted above. If im missing something please correct me.

Again I dont want to kill you for this, I can tell how much time you’ve put into it. But with inconsistent and unclear tiers and them constantly changing, on top of an inconstancy with the accuracy of them. Personally I have to take all of this with a grain of salt.
Ok, so you're conflating several things together. The scouting reports as I've stated on numerous occasions (although i'm sure you're quite unaware) are just something I do for fun and to provide some context to each player. The model itself aka the Tiers are based strictly on the numbers. Two completely different things.

2016 was not incomplete. It says plain as day the 2 hits on the model were Zeke and Henry.

Saying "these 2 players look like they'll be studs" is not the same as looking back 5 years from now and saying "those 2 players were studs". It's not even close to the same. Everybody thinks everyone will be a stud. It just doesn't work out that way. I've been hearing the same thing for 6 years. Ohh no way Eddie Lacy/Devonta Freeman/Doug Martin/Jordan Howard/Barry Sanders I mean Ameer Abdullah/Jay Ayayi/Jeremy Hill/Kareem Hunt etc...... will turn into bums! They'll all have so many more great seasons!

As for Guice and Penny. Did you know Maurice Jones-Drew didn't break out until his 4th season? He had 96 rushing yards in year 1 and 414 rushing yards in year 3. Do you remember everyone confidently labeling Derrick Henry as a bust? You have to give these players time to break out, anywhere from 1-3 years is within a normal range. MJD breaking out during his 4th year was rare for sure, but it still happened and is within the realm of possibilities.

Look, I get it's probably confusing, but I laid out all the information for you right in this thread. I posted the list of players my model identified, sorted by Tier and by Year. I even went through the trouble of figuring out and posting the modified hit rates. But nothing is ever enough because it doesn't have sexy names such as Alvin Kamara on the list. But also know that this model is about detecting players that will have multiple thousand yard rushing seasons, and guess what... Kamara has none. Zero. So my model may not do what you or anyone else thinks it should be doing, but all indications so far is that it's very good at what it's supposed to be doing.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 2:18 am

cantguardjake wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:12 am The fact that he didn’t realise Bell ran a unbelievable 3 cone time speaks volumes lol you’ve only mentioned that in the last few reports, but whatevs.

Great stuff as usual. Your comments on Akers is why I have come around on him, I just don’t see how at the very least doesn’t hang around as a threat in the passing game.
Thanks. I have very high hopes for Akers. Admittedly he's a bit more of a projection but I think he has the best overall skillset in this class.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat May 30, 2020 6:33 am

Does the 2015 Report not count anymore? I remember you had Sankey and Latavius Murray as Tier 1 in those, but I can't remember why they were removed.

So, this has always been the bread and butter of your study. From 2016: "More specifically, I wanted a way to identify successful long-term running backs with a true 3-down profile." I'm not bringing up the Tier 2 hits, because it reads to me like Tier 2 is "What if I cooked you a great looking steak, but I couldn't promise you that you won't get food poisoning when you finish it." There's a lot of wiggle room to be right with that.

If we're looking at the list of players who've been in Tier 1 since inception:

-Have roughly an 80% chance of rushing for 3+ 1,000 yard seasons.
-All have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons.

2018 - Saquon Barkley [2]
2018 - Rashaad Penny [0]
2018 - Derrius Guice [0]
2017 - Leonard Fournette [2]
2017 - D'Onta Foreman [0]
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott [3]
2016 - Derrick Henry [2]
2015 - David Johnson [1]

So, Barkley, Fournette, and Zeke are no brainers. The hit rate of RBs (and WRs) taken that high in the draft is historically solid. How far can the obvious cases define your formula?

To me, the less obvious ones are more telling. I'm just wondering how confident you are in your Tier 1 findings right now, knowing that those less obvious ones like Johnson, Henry, Guice, Penny, and Guice (and in the past Sankey, Murray) have been really shaky as a whole. I also ask that, because Mixon and Chubb look like long-term studs despite not getting the billing.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby moishetreats » Sat May 30, 2020 6:48 am

Thank you, Dynasty DeLorean! I always learn from reading your report, and I continue to appreciate every year the time that you take to put into it, that you're willing to share it with all of us, and that you are here to respond to questions and comments.

Thank you again!!
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --


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