2020 Running Back Report

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MEuRaH
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby MEuRaH » Sat May 30, 2020 7:02 am

I'm saddened by your Dobbins observations. I was really hoping to see him on the list (I understand why he isn't) and to see another ranker love him the way I did. I do love the AJ Dillon stuff though. The comparison of pad level is a great point and can easily be overlooked.

When you make adjustments, you do alter the placement of previous RBs, correct?
Does this also mean that RBs who were not on the list in years past now make the list, and vice versa?

I get the desire to find busts. That's also something that I've been attempting to do for years. I think the worst feeling in the world is drafting a guy you love and then he doesn't pan out. It's interesting that you've mentioned "work ethic". It's been a discussion point with several analysts before but there's never been a way to measure it. The underlying sentiment is that if you're a player who went through high school and college football and then got drafted, the chances are that your work ethic is already adequate at the very worst. Who knows though, maybe they get drafted and get that first paycheck and the feeling of "making it" causes guys to relax.

Anyway I'm interested in your answers. Thanks for posting.
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby nathanq42 » Sat May 30, 2020 7:21 am

Hey DD thanks for the reply. So if a player doesn't make it into a tier, how is that interpreted? Are they considered below the lowest tier or just a mysterious question mark? And do you have any ideas/thoughts about switching to yards from scrimmage to accommodate the changing NFL landscape and heavier emphasis on being a dual that RB? The stud rusher RBs (Chubb, Zeke, ap, etc) would in theory all eclipse the threshold since their rushing figures are so high, but this change could possible help hit on guys that rely more heavily on both elements of RB scoring. I guess you did already answer it in that most of the elite dual threat guys have such a generic/attainable profile it is hard to sift the duds from the studs eh?
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby kadun2 » Sat May 30, 2020 8:21 am

Good reading as usual. Thanks for your effort and posting it for all to read.
Glad to see the positive stuff on Akers. I really like his game.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby esloan35 » Sat May 30, 2020 9:15 am

Good job and any of you who make these efforts on research is appreciated. I enjoy the reading and angles made by the forum folks. I really don't get the agitators etc for being overly personal on a forum post, although controversy is part of the culture. This stuff is always a reach on opinion and we try the best with what we see as football fans and geeks.

Keep them coming, awesome read!

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby DJB » Sat May 30, 2020 10:30 am

Awesome stuff DD as usual!

Would Dobbins make the criteria if you used his Frehsman OSU combine numbers ?

40- 4.32
20 yard dash - 2.48
10 yard - 1.44
Vert - 36.5
Broad - 129

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby ericanadian » Sat May 30, 2020 10:37 am

I quite like Dillon, but while I agree that he can get his pad level surprisingly low, I feel like he’s inconsistent with it. I also don’t like his contact balance at points. It almost seems like its one or the other. When he runs high, he seems to be able to dance through low tackles with ease. When he gets low, he seems to get tripped up fairly easily. It all seems like stuff that can be corrected though.
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 10:42 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 7:02 am I'm saddened by your Dobbins observations. I was really hoping to see him on the list (I understand why he isn't) and to see another ranker love him the way I did. I do love the AJ Dillon stuff though. The comparison of pad level is a great point and can easily be overlooked.

When you make adjustments, you do alter the placement of previous RBs, correct?
Does this also mean that RBs who were not on the list in years past now make the list, and vice versa?

I get the desire to find busts. That's also something that I've been attempting to do for years. I think the worst feeling in the world is drafting a guy you love and then he doesn't pan out. It's interesting that you've mentioned "work ethic". It's been a discussion point with several analysts before but there's never been a way to measure it. The underlying sentiment is that if you're a player who went through high school and college football and then got drafted, the chances are that your work ethic is already adequate at the very worst. Who knows though, maybe they get drafted and get that first paycheck and the feeling of "making it" causes guys to relax.

Anyway I'm interested in your answers. Thanks for posting.
Yeah unfortunately Dobbins didn't do any athletic testing. I do like him though.

Any alteration is typically noted in the report. People have seen some player movement but much of that was simply from fixing mistakes and not from a change in the tier itself. Everyone you see in the Tier 1 Speed and Tier 2 has been there since the start if I'm remembering correctly. You can go back and see for yourself, I make a point not to edit them after the season has started. If there are any changes it's usually taking players off because a mistake had been made (Gurley for example), rarely if ever am I going back and adding people on. I've detailed all of the challenges I've had with incorrect data and everything else in previous reports, if anyone really cares they can go find whatever it is they're looking for. The only really big change that actually added players on was the creation of the Tier 1 Agility part, which I had been working on for 5 years.

As for work ethic, I don't disagree with your sentiment, but maybe switching the view from half glass empty to half glass full might make more sense. In other words, instead of labeling those players as having a "bad" work ethic and more likely to bust, maybe say the players that do things like keep their body in shape and take extra reps after practice to work on things like pass pro have a "good" work ethic and are less likely to bust.


nathanq42 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 7:21 am Hey DD thanks for the reply. So if a player doesn't make it into a tier, how is that interpreted? Are they considered below the lowest tier or just a mysterious question mark? And do you have any ideas/thoughts about switching to yards from scrimmage to accommodate the changing NFL landscape and heavier emphasis on being a dual that RB? The stud rusher RBs (Chubb, Zeke, ap, etc) would in theory all eclipse the threshold since their rushing figures are so high, but this change could possible help hit on guys that rely more heavily on both elements of RB scoring. I guess you did already answer it in that most of the elite dual threat guys have such a generic/attainable profile it is hard to sift the duds from the studs eh?
Just a question mark I suppose. No, I absolutely would not consider them below the lowest tier.

I don't believe I have tried to make something based specifically around total scrimmage yards. I might have tried to do something similar when I first started and realized it was pointless but maybe I'll look into it again. But yes, many rb profiles are just too generic. I believe there are formula's or studies out there that can help you with that type of thing, but for my taste the range of outcomes and hit rate is too wide. I also want to note that it took me a lot of time to get all my data correct, so any study you see is likely using incorrect data. There is not a single resource on the internet that has all athletic testing recorded correctly.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 10:50 am

DJB wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:30 am Awesome stuff DD as usual!

Would Dobbins make the criteria if you used his Frehsman OSU combine numbers ?

40- 4.32
20 yard dash - 2.48
10 yard - 1.44
Vert - 36.5
Broad - 129

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html
Hi, thanks.

So I did test this out to see what would happen, of course I had to adjust the 40 time by .05, and I'd have to double check everything... but no, Dobbins didn't make any of the tiers. Not any of the good ones at least. But thanks for the question I know a lot of people were wondering about that.

edit: so I thought this was referring to the nike sparq camp. updated response a few posts down from here.

ericanadian wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:37 am I quite like Dillon, but while I agree that he can get his pad level surprisingly low, I feel like he’s inconsistent with it. I also don’t like his contact balance at points. It almost seems like its one or the other. When he runs high, he seems to be able to dance through low tackles with ease. When he gets low, he seems to get tripped up fairly easily. It all seems like stuff that can be corrected though.
Fair points. I didn't notice anything quite so specific, but I agree he still has a lot of room for improvement.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sat May 30, 2020 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby DJB » Sat May 30, 2020 10:55 am

Thanks for looking into Dobbins for me!
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 11:20 am

azthecrow wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 8:21 am Good reading as usual. Thanks for your effort and posting it for all to read.
Glad to see the positive stuff on Akers. I really like his game.
esloan35 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 9:15 am Good job and any of you who make these efforts on research is appreciated. I enjoy the reading and angles made by the forum folks. I really don't get the agitators etc for being overly personal on a forum post, although controversy is part of the culture. This stuff is always a reach on opinion and we try the best with what we see as football fans and geeks.

Keep them coming, awesome read!
Thanks guys. Glad you enjoyed the read.
DJB wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:55 am Thanks for looking into Dobbins for me!
Np.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby nathanq42 » Sat May 30, 2020 11:26 am

You rock DD thanks for the replies! Glad to see that not making it into a tier isn't necessarily a negative indication
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 11:27 am

DJB wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:30 am Awesome stuff DD as usual!

Would Dobbins make the criteria if you used his Frehsman OSU combine numbers ?

40- 4.32
20 yard dash - 2.48
10 yard - 1.44
Vert - 36.5
Broad - 129

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html
Wait, is this the same thing as the Sparq camp thing that was on twitter or is this something different. I might have miscalculated before. Was the weight of 208 recorded as his weight during these drills or was that just something the writer of the article threw in.

According to the information posted in the article, with the 40 time adjusted, yes Dobbins would qualify for Tier 1 Power/Speed if he put those numbers up at the combine or his pro day. Sorry for the confusion. I thought you were referring to the 2016 Nike Sparq camp numbers.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sat May 30, 2020 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Jigga94 » Sat May 30, 2020 11:34 am

Since Dillon made your tier 1, would you draft him ahead of any of the top backs that didn't make any list (CEH, Dobbins, Swift)?

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 30, 2020 11:43 am

Jigga94 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:34 am Since Dillon made your tier 1, would you draft him ahead of any of the top backs that didn't make any list (CEH, Dobbins, Swift)?
In theory, yes. In practice, no. I've drafted Dillon mid-2nd in nearly all my leagues. In the league where I don't own him, I'm hesitant to offer a future 1st because of the borderline bust-risk factors that I detailed and his lack of proficiency in the passing game. I think his upside is tremendous but the floor is undoubtedly a little risky.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby DJB » Sat May 30, 2020 12:59 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:27 am
DJB wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:30 am Awesome stuff DD as usual!

Would Dobbins make the criteria if you used his Frehsman OSU combine numbers ?

40- 4.32
20 yard dash - 2.48
10 yard - 1.44
Vert - 36.5
Broad - 129

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html
Wait, is this the same thing as the Sparq camp thing that was on twitter or is this something different. I might have miscalculated before. Was the weight of 208 recorded as his weight during these drills or was that just something the writer of the article threw in.

According to the information posted in the article, with the 40 time adjusted, yes Dobbins would qualify for Tier 1 Power/Speed if he put those numbers up at the combine or his pro day. Sorry for the confusion. I thought you were referring to the 2016 Nike Sparq camp numbers.

Awesome thank you for clarifying that! Makes me happy as a huge Dobbins fan as my #1 RB
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