Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:33 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled
I hesitate to jump into this discussion but...

Aiyuk's extenuating circumstances extended out far further just draft capital. He dominated JUCO and came onto a run first team with an established alpha WR (that was drafted in the 1st round); that's a reasonable explanation for why he was a Senior breakout that didn't involve him needing 3 years to learn how to play football.

I ended up with some Aiyuk, but that's not because of any subjective "tape" measurement or blind faith in draft capital. It was because he had plausible reasons for being a Senior breakout, got 1st round draft capital and was going behind other Senior Breakouts (Mims, Pittman) who also didn't have stellar analytical profiles. I'll admit I also liked his tape and was somewhat buying into Shanahan believing he was a HoF talent; but I'm not a tape guru and Shanahan also loved Dante Pettis so these two things didn't factor in too strongly into my evaluation of him.

Claypool would've been a more accurate counter example. As a very data driven drafter, I fully admit I was wrong about that guy. Senior breakout behind JAG WRs.. Looked stiff at Notre Dame and size/speed athletes with limited college production rarely amount to much in the NFL. If a Chase Claypool clone were to enter the draft again I'd probably still miss on him given that I just don't think the process was wrong with him; he just proved to be an outlier :lol: If you can tell me the difference between him and Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Torrey Smith *insert late breakout, high draft capital size/speed specimen flame out here*; I'm all ears as I'd love to have some confidence in drafting these high ceiling players.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:51 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:33 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled
I hesitate to jump into this discussion but...

Aiyuk's extenuating circumstances extended out far further just draft capital. He dominated JUCO and came onto a run first team with an established alpha WR (that was drafted in the 1st round); that's a reasonable explanation for why he was a Senior breakout that didn't involve him needing 3 years to learn how to play football.

I ended up with some Aiyuk, but that's not because of any subjective "tape" measurement or blind faith in draft capital. It was because he had plausible reasons for being a Senior breakout, got 1st round draft capital and was going behind other Senior Breakouts (Mims, Pittman) who also didn't have stellar analytical profiles. I'll admit I also liked his tape and was somewhat buying into Shanahan believing he was a HoF talent; but I'm not a tape guru and Shanahan also loved Dante Pettis so these two things didn't factor in too strongly into my evaluation of him.

Claypool would've been a more accurate counter example. As a very data driven drafter, I fully admit I was wrong about that guy. Senior breakout behind JAG WRs.. Looked stiff at Notre Dame and size/speed athletes with limited college production rarely amount to much in the NFL. If a Chase Claypool clone were to enter the draft again I'd probably still miss on him given that I just don't think the process was wrong with him; he just proved to be an outlier :lol: If you can tell me the difference between him and Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Torrey Smith *insert late breakout, high draft capital size/speed specimen flame out here*; I'm all ears as I'd love to have some confidence in drafting these high ceiling players.
From memory Claypool’s height adjusted speed score was 3rd all time for a wide receiver behind only Megatron and Metcalf, he was considerably more athletic than those players.

I also saw a list of wide receivers with a speed score over a certain threshold and second round capital and the list was littered with studs. I can’t remember exactly but it included Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson - the only bust was Tyron Calico, and he did his knee anyway.

Claypools profile was actually awesome, especially for his cost, everyone just decided he was a tight end for some reason.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:21 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:51 pm
From memory Claypool’s height adjusted speed score was 3rd all time for a wide receiver behind only Megatron and Metcalf, he was considerably more athletic than those players.

I also saw a list of wide receivers with a speed score over a certain threshold and second round capital and the list was littered with studs. I can’t remember exactly but it included Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson - the only bust was Tyron Calico, and he did his knee anyway.

Claypools profile was actually awesome, especially for his cost, everyone just decided he was a tight end for some reason.
Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson were all studs in college from an early age.

Kevin White (1.07), Breshad Perriman (1.26) are two names off the top of my head that both had similar size adjusted speed scores than Claypool and both had higher draft capital.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:58 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:21 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:51 pm
From memory Claypool’s height adjusted speed score was 3rd all time for a wide receiver behind only Megatron and Metcalf, he was considerably more athletic than those players.

I also saw a list of wide receivers with a speed score over a certain threshold and second round capital and the list was littered with studs. I can’t remember exactly but it included Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson - the only bust was Tyron Calico, and he did his knee anyway.

Claypools profile was actually awesome, especially for his cost, everyone just decided he was a tight end for some reason.
Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson were all studs in college from an early age.

Kevin White (1.07), Breshad Perriman (1.26) are two names off the top of my head that both had similar size adjusted speed scores than Claypool and both had higher draft capital.
Their height adjusted speed scores weren’t as good as Claypool’s though, that’s the point - his was top 3 all time and put him in that elite company, which Perriman, White etc weren’t despite being athletic themselves.

There probably won’t be another Claypool for some time in hindsight, he was actually a ridiculous athlete with elite draft capital.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:04 pm

I'll admit, the Kadarius Toney love is a little perplexing. I certainly think he can be useful in an offense with his speed and playmaking, but I'm not sure what he does that's better than someone like Rondale Moore.

Toney in 4 seasons: 120 receptions, 1590 receiving yards, 12 TDs (currently 22 years old)
Rondale Moore's freshman season: 114 receptions, 1,258 yards, 12 TDs (currently 20 years old)

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:50 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:58 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:21 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:51 pm
From memory Claypool’s height adjusted speed score was 3rd all time for a wide receiver behind only Megatron and Metcalf, he was considerably more athletic than those players.

I also saw a list of wide receivers with a speed score over a certain threshold and second round capital and the list was littered with studs. I can’t remember exactly but it included Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson - the only bust was Tyron Calico, and he did his knee anyway.

Claypools profile was actually awesome, especially for his cost, everyone just decided he was a tight end for some reason.
Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson were all studs in college from an early age.

Kevin White (1.07), Breshad Perriman (1.26) are two names off the top of my head that both had similar size adjusted speed scores than Claypool and both had higher draft capital.
Their height adjusted speed scores weren’t as good as Claypool’s though, that’s the point - his was top 3 all time and put him in that elite company, which Perriman, White etc weren’t despite being athletic themselves.

There probably won’t be another Claypool for some time in hindsight, he was actually a ridiculous athlete with elite draft capital.
Is he actually that rare? Chase Claypool 6'4 4.42 (2.17), Stephen Hill - 6'4 4.36 (2.11); Breshad Perriman - 6'2 4.3 (1.26); Kevin White 6'3 4.35 (1.07), Miles Boykin 6'4 4.42 (3.29).. 4 of those 5 had late breakout ages and were massive busts despite their elite size/speed combos. Hill was probably the most impressive athlete of the bunch and had a pretty good breakout age but never amounted to much.

There's also Denzel Mims in the same draft class at 6'3 4.38 (2.27)

My initial thought is that it's more a coincidence that he happened to be #3 on that list than it is a metric that's so predictive it would push a prospect like Claypool from likely bust to awesome; but I appreciate you mentioning it. I'll have to look more into this Height adjusted speed score.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:03 pm

Chase Claypool is 238 lbs, White and Hill were "only" 215. Mapletron is a different breed.

Setting the weight/height adjusted speeds aside, I was extremely low on White when he was coming out. I was indifferent on Perriman. I loved Claypool. So they might look the same to you but I see a lot of differences. Claypool was more productive than White in their junior years. Boykin was somewhat productive (Claypool significantly more productive though) and also a ridiculous athlete but was drafted over a full round later than Claypool. Not only is Mapletron big and fast but he's very laterally quick and explosive as well. People just don't think that because of the bogus twitter musings about him being sluggish and converting to TE. If you watch his film and watch him practice he's almost a Julio level type of athlete. On top of that, he's just naturally talented as well. He's still a work in progress (he's a hands catcher but i'm not in love with his catch technique) but I think he'll continue to improve.

Given the fact that nobody knew who Claypool was in highschool because he is from Canada, it makes sense that he got off to a slow start in college.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:07 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:50 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:58 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:21 pm

Megatron, Metcalf, Julio, Andre Johnson were all studs in college from an early age.

Kevin White (1.07), Breshad Perriman (1.26) are two names off the top of my head that both had similar size adjusted speed scores than Claypool and both had higher draft capital.
Their height adjusted speed scores weren’t as good as Claypool’s though, that’s the point - his was top 3 all time and put him in that elite company, which Perriman, White etc weren’t despite being athletic themselves.

There probably won’t be another Claypool for some time in hindsight, he was actually a ridiculous athlete with elite draft capital.
Is he actually that rare? Chase Claypool 6'4 4.42 (2.17), Stephen Hill - 6'4 4.36 (2.11); Breshad Perriman - 6'2 4.3 (1.26); Kevin White 6'3 4.35 (1.07), Miles Boykin 6'4 4.42 (3.29).. 4 of those 5 had late breakout ages and were massive busts despite their elite size/speed combos. Hill was probably the most impressive athlete of the bunch and had a pretty good breakout age but never amounted to much.

There's also Denzel Mims in the same draft class at 6'3 4.38 (2.27)

My initial thought is that it's more a coincidence that he happened to be #3 on that list than it is a metric that's so predictive it would push a prospect like Claypool from likely bust to awesome; but I appreciate you mentioning it. I'll have to look more into this Height adjusted speed score.
Agreed they’re all great athletes, but Claypool ran his at 238 pounds which is the difference. For example Hill is the same height but ran his time 28 pounds lighter at 215 pounds.

I guess it just depends on how much weight (no pun intended) you put into an arbitrary statistic like height adjusted speed score compared to other athletic measurables.

I think Terry is probably going to be a closer comparison to the guys you have mentioned (having said that I like Terry, but he will be heavily draft capital dependent for me).

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:11 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:03 pm Chase Claypool is 238 lbs, White and Hill were "only" 215. Mapletron is a different breed.

Setting the weight/height adjusted speeds aside, I was extremely low on White when he was coming out. I was indifferent on Perriman. I loved Claypool. So they might look the same to you but I see a lot of differences. Claypool was more productive than White in their junior years. Boykin was somewhat productive (Claypool significantly more productive though) and also a ridiculous athlete but was drafted over a full round later than Claypool. Not only is Mapletron big and fast but he's very laterally quick and explosive as well. People just don't think that because of the bogus twitter musings about him being sluggish and converting to TE. If you watch his film and watch him practice he's almost a Julio level type of athlete. On top of that, he's just naturally talented as well. He's still a work in progress (he's a hands catcher but i'm not in love with his catch technique) but I think he'll continue to improve.
Agreed with everything 100%. He had some great examples on film of his lateral agility on a few screens and crossers making defenders miss, it was ridiculous for his size. It translated to the NFL as well he was so dangerous on screens, I don’t know why the Steelers didn’t incorporate it more.

His senior bowl reps were what sold me, moved so well compared to someone like Nico Collins this year who is the same height but considerably lighter.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:05 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm The OhCruelestRanter playbook:

- respond to a poster showing interest in Toney, proclaiming people will be fooled by senior season breakouts until the end of time

- poster responds that seniors should be judged on merit, citing other extenuating circumstances in their profile such as draft capital

- OCR smuggly belittle poster for his inferior intellect

- has it pointed out that he himself drafted a senior season breakout

- OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled

- still arguing for some reason

Rinse, repeat lol
I like that you follow my posts enough to think I have a playbook. That’s cool. Even though this is oddly specific.

Anyways, I explained this a few posts ago. I can explain it to you, but, and I feel like I’m in a loop here, I can’t understand it for you. Here’s one more try.

Aiyuk was a senior. That’s a concerning trait. We have plenty of data to illustrate this. Aiyuk was also a 1st round pick. That’s a promising trait. (For you, promising in this context means “good”) We also have plenty of data to illustrate this.

Now here comes the obvious train, last stop: you. Some prospects have *gasp* good and bad parts of their profile, and (again, I know this is complicated for you) but different prospects have different acquisition costs. So a prospect like Aiyuk, who had promising and concerning features ended up being a good value when he was being drafted behind similarly concerning prospects like Pittman and Mims that’s why I have him. Toney has no draft capital now. He hasn’t worked out. He has no landing spot. We have no idea what his acquisition cost is. His profile is, at the moment, almost entirely concerning.

In any case, a long time ago Thomas Paine described trying to explain things to people like you as trying to give medicine to the dead- something that’s become eminently clear in this thread. You are a lost cause. You want so desperately to have some cool gotcha moment, but multiple people have already pointed out the flaws in this argument. You don’t have the understanding or frankly the intellectual horsepower to have this argument. But please, keep at it. This is fun for me.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Dynos » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm

trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
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QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, T.Etienne , Tony Pollard,hassan haskins,donta foreman, jaylen warren
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown, M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, skyy moore, romeo doubs, alec pierce Donovan Peoples-Jones, J.Palmer
TE: kyle pitts, juwan johnson,mckitty

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Team 2: Superflex, Start 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex Wr/TE. 1 SFlex, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
QB: J.Herbert, Z.Wilson, K.Cousins, K.Pickett,K.Mond
RB: J.Taylor, JK Dobbins, N.Harris, N.Hines, G.Edwards, James Cook, J.Ford, Dameon Pierce, P.Strong, D.Foreman (Jermaine Burton Devy)
WR: J.Chase,Garett Wilson , B.Aiyuk, C.Sutton, R.Bateman, G.Davis, M.Hardman,J.Palmer,
TE: D.Waller R.Tonyan, B.Jordan, Cameron Brate, Cade Otton, G.Everett

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:23 pm

Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
Yeah. Agree on the landing spot. He’s incredibly risky- he’s a 1 year starter at a small school, but that one year was great and the tools seem legit.

I’m starting to feel like QB is such a hard position to play, to the point that the reason it’s so hard to model them analytically is that they all need to improve so much from who they are as prospects. If Lance lands with a great offensive coach like Shanahan, awesome. If he ends up in Vic Fangio-land I’m probably staying away.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Dynos » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:30 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:23 pm
Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
Yeah. Agree on the landing spot. He’s incredibly risky- he’s a 1 year starter at a small school, but that one year was great and the tools seem legit.

I’m starting to feel like QB is such a hard position to play, to the point that the reason it’s so hard to model them analytically is that they all need to improve so much from who they are as prospects. If Lance lands with a great offensive coach like Shanahan, awesome. If he ends up in Vic Fangio-land I’m probably staying away.
yeah i agree with you! he's a high risk, high reward! for SF. Is wilson less risky?
2019 Champion! 2022 Champion!

Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex

QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, T.Etienne , Tony Pollard,hassan haskins,donta foreman, jaylen warren
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown, M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, skyy moore, romeo doubs, alec pierce Donovan Peoples-Jones, J.Palmer
TE: kyle pitts, juwan johnson,mckitty

2021 Champion!
Team 2: Superflex, Start 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex Wr/TE. 1 SFlex, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE
QB: J.Herbert, Z.Wilson, K.Cousins, K.Pickett,K.Mond
RB: J.Taylor, JK Dobbins, N.Harris, N.Hines, G.Edwards, James Cook, J.Ford, Dameon Pierce, P.Strong, D.Foreman (Jermaine Burton Devy)
WR: J.Chase,Garett Wilson , B.Aiyuk, C.Sutton, R.Bateman, G.Davis, M.Hardman,J.Palmer,
TE: D.Waller R.Tonyan, B.Jordan, Cameron Brate, Cade Otton, G.Everett

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:36 pm

Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:30 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:23 pm
Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
Yeah. Agree on the landing spot. He’s incredibly risky- he’s a 1 year starter at a small school, but that one year was great and the tools seem legit.

I’m starting to feel like QB is such a hard position to play, to the point that the reason it’s so hard to model them analytically is that they all need to improve so much from who they are as prospects. If Lance lands with a great offensive coach like Shanahan, awesome. If he ends up in Vic Fangio-land I’m probably staying away.
yeah i agree with you! he's a high risk, high reward! for SF. Is wilson less risky?
Idk. Probably. He’s a three year starter who didn’t play with a ton of NFL talent and completed over 70% of his passes in his most recent year. These are good things, and I think it points to a high floor. The problem is that in 10-12 team 1QB leagues, a floor of mid-to-low-end QB2 means he’s basically worthless. I also still need to see where he lands.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:41 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:11 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:03 pm Chase Claypool is 238 lbs, White and Hill were "only" 215. Mapletron is a different breed.

Setting the weight/height adjusted speeds aside, I was extremely low on White when he was coming out. I was indifferent on Perriman. I loved Claypool. So they might look the same to you but I see a lot of differences. Claypool was more productive than White in their junior years. Boykin was somewhat productive (Claypool significantly more productive though) and also a ridiculous athlete but was drafted over a full round later than Claypool. Not only is Mapletron big and fast but he's very laterally quick and explosive as well. People just don't think that because of the bogus twitter musings about him being sluggish and converting to TE. If you watch his film and watch him practice he's almost a Julio level type of athlete. On top of that, he's just naturally talented as well. He's still a work in progress (he's a hands catcher but i'm not in love with his catch technique) but I think he'll continue to improve.
Agreed with everything 100%. He had some great examples on film of his lateral agility on a few screens and crossers making defenders miss, it was ridiculous for his size. It translated to the NFL as well he was so dangerous on screens, I don’t know why the Steelers didn’t incorporate it more.

His senior bowl reps were what sold me, moved so well compared to someone like Nico Collins this year who is the same height but considerably lighter.
I just didnt see the fluidity he showed in the NFL in college, but I admittedly didnt look at every play.

It’s true he ran it at a heavier weight, but it was also significantly slower than the lighter counterpoints. I dont know exactly how HASS is calculated, but their size adjusted speed-scores are very similar.

The late start to football could definitely be a factor I didnt account for, though


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