Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

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bjd5211
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:16 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:59 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:09 pm


Do you think teams don't try to scheme their best weapons into favorable situations? The fact is he was able to convert those advantages into opportunity and that opportunity into production-- repeatedly. Every team Alabama plays knows Devonta is going to get the ball.. and they can't stop him. 12 receptions for 200 yards vs OSU is impressive any way you slice it.
Of course, but getting schemed open at the college level does nothing to help us project his ability at NFL - which is the whole point.

He looks solid and was obviously dominant at the college level, but his stats were definitely inflated this year.

Give me Chase 10/10 times.
I don't get this stance. Why are we talking about Smith like he was Tavon Austin at West Virginia? There are a ton of games from this season where he is getting open at will against defenders.

He's by no means a perfect prospect, but I'm not sure what more he really could've done this season. He had an all-time elite season for a college WR and did it in the toughest conference. His stats are only inflated in the sense that Waddle was out all season and Smith saw a bump in production without him in the lineup. The first Bama season in a while where a WR didn't have to compete with anyone for targets.
So did Chase in 2019, and he was on the same team as a WR who just had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever for a WR, and Chase was the clear #1 option over him. Chase also did it at 19 years old compared to Smith at 22 years old this year, and Chase has the more typical #1 WR build. I've come around on Smith being a top tier prospect and he's been phenomenal, but Chase checks pretty much all the same boxes that Smith does and a couple that he doesn't.
Last edited by bjd5211 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:17 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:27 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:33 am
Dynos wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 am
my question is why everyone talks about devonta smith BMI and no one is talking about jaylen waddle BMI?
BMI shouldn't be a significant factor in evaluating a WR.
I very much disagree. There is a correlation with higher BMI WRs scoring more points.

But it's not the be-all-end-all metric; and there will always be exceptions that break the mold.

Devonta is an exception, and at this point his career has been so much of an outlier I don't give a bleep about his sleight frame. He was Alabama's most productive receiver while sharing the field with 3 other 1st round picks (Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle). He was the undisputed alpha this year and was so dominant he won the Heisman as a WR. He's shown he can excel no matter what situation he finds himself in at the next level.

What more does he have to prove?
Are they scoring more points because of their higher BMI, or are they scoring more points because of other overwhelming factors in common?

I'm not dismissing it as a non-factor, but it's a snapshot in time and weight isn't a static number. So while it can be useful in a trivial sense, it's just not one of those things you hang your hat on.

I just don't see his frame being much of an issue. The NFL game is more finesse than ever and there's plenty of smaller/thinner WRs having success in the league. A player like Robby Anderson hit 1000 yards and he's very thin for a 6'3 WR (190 lbs).
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:18 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:16 pm

So did Chase in 2019, and he was on the same team as a WR who just had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever for a WR, and Chase was the clear #1 option over him. Chase also did it at 19 years old compared to Smith at 22 years old this year, and Chase has the more typical #1 WR build. I've come around on Smith being a top tier prospect and he's been phenomenal, but Chase checks pretty much all the same boxes that Smith does and a couple that he doesn't.
I agree with you. I think Chase is the better prospect, even though recency bias favors Smith. But, I wouldn't object if anyone has Smith over Chase, just because the route running and separation skills look to be on a different level.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:30 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:59 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:09 pm


Do you think teams don't try to scheme their best weapons into favorable situations? The fact is he was able to convert those advantages into opportunity and that opportunity into production-- repeatedly. Every team Alabama plays knows Devonta is going to get the ball.. and they can't stop him. 12 receptions for 200 yards vs OSU is impressive any way you slice it.
Of course, but getting schemed open at the college level does nothing to help us project his ability at NFL - which is the whole point.

He looks solid and was obviously dominant at the college level, but his stats were definitely inflated this year.

Give me Chase 10/10 times.
I don't get this stance. Why are we talking about Smith like he was Tavon Austin at West Virginia? There are a ton of games from this season where he is getting open at will against defenders.

He's by no means a perfect prospect, but I'm not sure what more he really could've done this season. He had an all-time elite season for a college WR and did it in the toughest conference. His stats are only inflated in the sense that Waddle was out all season and Smith saw a bump in production without him in the lineup. The first Bama season in a while where a WR didn't have to compete with anyone for targets.
He caught a mountain of screens, and a lot of shallow crosses as well. Unlike Aiyuk last year I just don’t think that’s really sustainable at the next level for a player of his size.

Like I said, he’s solid, and he clearly has a good understanding of coverages when you watch him, but IMO he just seems expensive given what he would have cost last year compared to a top 4 pick this year - when really he looks like the exact same player.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:12 pm

cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:30 pm
He caught a mountain of screens, and a lot of shallow crosses as well. Unlike Aiyuk last year I just don’t think that’s really sustainable at the next level for a player of his size.

Like I said, he’s solid, and he clearly has a good understanding of coverages when you watch him, but IMO he just seems expensive given what he would have cost last year compared to a top 4 pick this year - when really he looks like the exact same player.
Who led Alabama in receiving last year?

This season just confirmed what a quiet minority were thinking last year: that Smith was the best WR on the team. In a lot of ways he is the same player but his talent was on full display while he didn't have to compete with 3 other 1st round WRs and the Jeudy fantatics trying to come up with excuse after excuse for why WR Jebus wasn't the leading receiver on his own team.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:33 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:16 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:59 pm


Of course, but getting schemed open at the college level does nothing to help us project his ability at NFL - which is the whole point.

He looks solid and was obviously dominant at the college level, but his stats were definitely inflated this year.

Give me Chase 10/10 times.
I don't get this stance. Why are we talking about Smith like he was Tavon Austin at West Virginia? There are a ton of games from this season where he is getting open at will against defenders.

He's by no means a perfect prospect, but I'm not sure what more he really could've done this season. He had an all-time elite season for a college WR and did it in the toughest conference. His stats are only inflated in the sense that Waddle was out all season and Smith saw a bump in production without him in the lineup. The first Bama season in a while where a WR didn't have to compete with anyone for targets.
So did Chase in 2019, and he was on the same team as a WR who just had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever for a WR, and Chase was the clear #1 option over him.
This is a false narrative. Justin Jefferson was the absolute #1 WR in LSU's offense that year. He had 30 more catches! He played the slot because they asked him what he wanted to play!
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:44 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:12 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:30 pm
He caught a mountain of screens, and a lot of shallow crosses as well. Unlike Aiyuk last year I just don’t think that’s really sustainable at the next level for a player of his size.

Like I said, he’s solid, and he clearly has a good understanding of coverages when you watch him, but IMO he just seems expensive given what he would have cost last year compared to a top 4 pick this year - when really he looks like the exact same player.
Who led Alabama in receiving last year?

This season just confirmed what a quiet minority were thinking last year: that Smith was the best WR on the team. In a lot of ways he is the same player but his talent was on full display while he didn't have to compete with 3 other 1st round WRs and the Jeudy fantatics trying to come up with excuse after excuse for why WR Jebus wasn't the leading receiver on his own team.
Would you have drafted Smith over Jeudy last year if given the chance though? Smith wouldn’t have been drafted first round, he went back to improve his draft stock.

Maybe he would have been a discount last year, and this year is his true worth. Or perhaps the fact he’s a top 4 pick proves this years class is weaker than last years.

All hypotheticals, but I’ll let someone else gamble a top 4 pick on a 175 pound senior.

I’d much rather take someone like Terry at his price if I’m drafting a senior (much like Aiyuk and Claypool last year).

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:46 pm

gogobradyarm wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:33 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:16 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:05 pm


I don't get this stance. Why are we talking about Smith like he was Tavon Austin at West Virginia? There are a ton of games from this season where he is getting open at will against defenders.

He's by no means a perfect prospect, but I'm not sure what more he really could've done this season. He had an all-time elite season for a college WR and did it in the toughest conference. His stats are only inflated in the sense that Waddle was out all season and Smith saw a bump in production without him in the lineup. The first Bama season in a while where a WR didn't have to compete with anyone for targets.
So did Chase in 2019, and he was on the same team as a WR who just had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever for a WR, and Chase was the clear #1 option over him.
This is a false narrative. Justin Jefferson was the absolute #1 WR in LSU's offense that year. He had 30 more catches! He played the slot because they asked him what he wanted to play!
And yet Chase still had 240 more yards than him, Tyler Lockett had more catches than DK this year but no one will argue he's the #1 option for Seattle. Jefferson played a role that got more volume than Chase, but Chase was still the primary and most dangerous weapon on the team.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:55 pm

Does it really matter who was the #1, draft them on individual merit.

Plenty of players have been better than their college teammates in college and worse in the NFL - and vice versa, shouldn’t be a pro or con for any prospect I wouldn’t have thought.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby lic217 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:57 pm

cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:44 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:12 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:30 pm
He caught a mountain of screens, and a lot of shallow crosses as well. Unlike Aiyuk last year I just don’t think that’s really sustainable at the next level for a player of his size.

Like I said, he’s solid, and he clearly has a good understanding of coverages when you watch him, but IMO he just seems expensive given what he would have cost last year compared to a top 4 pick this year - when really he looks like the exact same player.
Who led Alabama in receiving last year?

This season just confirmed what a quiet minority were thinking last year: that Smith was the best WR on the team. In a lot of ways he is the same player but his talent was on full display while he didn't have to compete with 3 other 1st round WRs and the Jeudy fantatics trying to come up with excuse after excuse for why WR Jebus wasn't the leading receiver on his own team.
Would you have drafted Smith over Jeudy last year if given the chance though? Smith wouldn’t have been drafted first round, he went back to improve his draft stock.

Maybe he would have been a discount last year, and this year is his true worth. Or perhaps the fact he’s a top 4 pick proves this years class is weaker than last years.

All hypotheticals, but I’ll let someone else gamble a top 4 pick on a 175 pound senior.

I’d much rather take someone like Terry at his price if I’m drafting a senior (much like Aiyuk and Claypool last year).
I had Smith above Juedy...
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:03 pm

lic217 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:57 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:44 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:12 pm


Who led Alabama in receiving last year?

This season just confirmed what a quiet minority were thinking last year: that Smith was the best WR on the team. In a lot of ways he is the same player but his talent was on full display while he didn't have to compete with 3 other 1st round WRs and the Jeudy fantatics trying to come up with excuse after excuse for why WR Jebus wasn't the leading receiver on his own team.
Would you have drafted Smith over Jeudy last year if given the chance though? Smith wouldn’t have been drafted first round, he went back to improve his draft stock.

Maybe he would have been a discount last year, and this year is his true worth. Or perhaps the fact he’s a top 4 pick proves this years class is weaker than last years.

All hypotheticals, but I’ll let someone else gamble a top 4 pick on a 175 pound senior.

I’d much rather take someone like Terry at his price if I’m drafting a senior (much like Aiyuk and Claypool last year).
I had Smith above Juedy...
I wouldve done the same thing I did this year: sell the pick to someone in the route running cult and chosen a similar talent in round 2

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby joeday » Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:12 pm

gogobradyarm wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:33 pm
This is a false narrative. Justin Jefferson was the absolute #1 WR in LSU's offense that year. He had 30 more catches! He played the slot because they asked him what he wanted to play!
Real talk...are you Justin Jefferson's mom? lol
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:41 pm

Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:03 pm
lic217 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:57 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:44 pm


Would you have drafted Smith over Jeudy last year if given the chance though? Smith wouldn’t have been drafted first round, he went back to improve his draft stock.

Maybe he would have been a discount last year, and this year is his true worth. Or perhaps the fact he’s a top 4 pick proves this years class is weaker than last years.

All hypotheticals, but I’ll let someone else gamble a top 4 pick on a 175 pound senior.

I’d much rather take someone like Terry at his price if I’m drafting a senior (much like Aiyuk and Claypool last year).
I had Smith above Juedy...
I wouldve done the same thing I did this year: sell the pick to someone in the route running cult and chosen a similar talent in round 2
Who are these similar round 2 talents? Based on your post draft rankings it looks as though the 3 receivers you had ranked directly below Jeudy were Jefferson, Ruggs and Raegor - and only 2 of them were going in round 2 in any draft I participated in ...

Seems like Jeudy has reached buy low status, the only thing stopping him is his hands (which were shockingly bad, but I’ll back him to fix them).

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:11 pm

joeday wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:12 pm
gogobradyarm wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:33 pm
This is a false narrative. Justin Jefferson was the absolute #1 WR in LSU's offense that year. He had 30 more catches! He played the slot because they asked him what he wanted to play!
Real talk...are you Justin Jefferson's mom? lol
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WR: Adams, Hopkins, Jefferson, Gallup, Reagor, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Dante Pettis, Scotty Miller, Tim Patrick, Quez Watkins
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2021: 1.01
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:12 pm

cantguardjake wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:41 pm
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:03 pm
lic217 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:57 pm

I had Smith above Juedy...
I wouldve done the same thing I did this year: sell the pick to someone in the route running cult and chosen a similar talent in round 2
Who are these similar round 2 talents? Based on your post draft rankings it looks as though the 3 receivers you had ranked directly below Jeudy were Jefferson, Ruggs and Raegor - and only 2 of them were going in round 2 in any draft I participated in ...

Seems like Jeudy has reached buy low status, the only thing stopping him is his hands (which were shockingly bad, but I’ll back him to fix them).
Ruggs? I wasnt a Ruggs guy.

I had Reagor, Jefferson, Higgins, Edwards, Shenault, Aiyuk, Mims similarly valued to Jeudy. Later on in the year I reluctantly added Ruggs, Pittman to this list as well.. but that was after I'd had all of my drafts.


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