Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Sriracha
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:43 pm

Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
I’m very happy so many people seem to be in love with Wilson/Fields. I’ll be positioning myself to scoop up Lance in the mid 1st of most drafts.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:52 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:43 pm
Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
I’m very happy so many people seem to be in love with Wilson/Fields. I’ll be positioning myself to scoop up Lance in the mid 1st of most drafts.
You prefer him to Fields? Just curious. Seems like a lot of folks prefer Lance to Wilson, preferring Lance to Fields is definitely a more unique opinion.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:11 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:52 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:43 pm
Dynos wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:15 pm trey lance is an interesting case, would be nice to see him with the 49 ers
I’m very happy so many people seem to be in love with Wilson/Fields. I’ll be positioning myself to scoop up Lance in the mid 1st of most drafts.
You prefer him to Fields? Just curious. Seems like a lot of folks prefer Lance to Wilson, preferring Lance to Fields is definitely a more unique opinion.


All of these QBs (debatable exception being Lawrence) are going to have to work on their flaws before they reach their potential as franchise QBs so I lean towards the one with the highest ceiling. Lance is by far the best rusher of the top 5 which gives him a nice rushing floor early on in his career and I really like the way he delivers the football. I understand he's risky in the sense that he only has one year of experience; but he displayed all of the traits you want in a franchise QB; poise, pocket maneuverabilty, keeps his eyes down field as he's escaping the pocket, accuracy on the run, decision making, ability to stretch every quadrant of the field and deep ball accuracy are on point. His lone 2020 game was a bit concerning since he struggled so much in areas he didn't the year before but I'm not going to put too much stock into 1 game; especially given that he's been working full time to improve this whole year that we have no way of tracking (because he didn't play).

He's going to get knocked for playing strength of competition, being a 1 read QB, etc.. but I believe that's more a product of the offense he ran in college than a limitation in his ability. The ability to cycle through progressions is an extremely overrated college trait and the fact that he was so successful with his first read is a good thing since it means he correctly read who would be open pre snap more often than not.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:41 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm The OhCruelestRanter playbook:

- respond to a poster showing interest in Toney, proclaiming people will be fooled by senior season breakouts until the end of time

- poster responds that seniors should be judged on merit, citing other extenuating circumstances in their profile such as draft capital

- OCR smuggly belittle poster for his inferior intellect

- has it pointed out that he himself drafted a senior season breakout

- OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled

- still arguing for some reason

Rinse, repeat lol
I like that you follow my posts enough to think I have a playbook. That’s cool. Even though this is oddly specific.

Anyways, I explained this a few posts ago. I can explain it to you, but, and I feel like I’m in a loop here, I can’t understand it for you. Here’s one more try.

Aiyuk was a senior. That’s a concerning trait. We have plenty of data to illustrate this. Aiyuk was also a 1st round pick. That’s a promising trait. (For you, promising in this context means “good”) We also have plenty of data to illustrate this.

Now here comes the obvious train, last stop: you. Some prospects have *gasp* good and bad parts of their profile, and (again, I know this is complicated for you) but different prospects have different acquisition costs. So a prospect like Aiyuk, who had promising and concerning features ended up being a good value when he was being drafted behind similarly concerning prospects like Pittman and Mims that’s why I have him. Toney has no draft capital now. He hasn’t worked out. He has no landing spot. We have no idea what his acquisition cost is. His profile is, at the moment, almost entirely concerning.

In any case, a long time ago Thomas Paine described trying to explain things to people like you as trying to give medicine to the dead- something that’s become eminently clear in this thread. You are a lost cause. You want so desperately to have some cool gotcha moment, but multiple people have already pointed out the flaws in this argument. You don’t have the understanding or frankly the intellectual horsepower to have this argument. But please, keep at it. This is fun for me.
I’m glad you mentioned acquisition cost, because the original post mentioned acquiring Toney with a second, to which you replied with a generalised statement about senior season breakouts.

He replied he factors in aspects like athletic profile and draft capital which is why Aiyuk was appealing to him (and specifically cited both as to why Toney interests him with said second, as he assumes he will have both) - which you mocked, and then listed as reasons why you drafted Aiyuk. Once again, your arguing with yourself :lol:

I’m sure he won’t be lining up to spend a second on Toney if he runs a 4.6 and gets drafted in the 4th, but I guess your the only one that’s allowed to adapt your thinking.

The eternal struggle - a narcissists comprehension and their cognitive dissonance.

Stay quoting Thomas Paine though, I’m dazzled lol

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:49 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:41 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm The OhCruelestRanter playbook:

- respond to a poster showing interest in Toney, proclaiming people will be fooled by senior season breakouts until the end of time

- poster responds that seniors should be judged on merit, citing other extenuating circumstances in their profile such as draft capital

- OCR smuggly belittle poster for his inferior intellect

- has it pointed out that he himself drafted a senior season breakout

- OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled

- still arguing for some reason

Rinse, repeat lol
I like that you follow my posts enough to think I have a playbook. That’s cool. Even though this is oddly specific.

Anyways, I explained this a few posts ago. I can explain it to you, but, and I feel like I’m in a loop here, I can’t understand it for you. Here’s one more try.

Aiyuk was a senior. That’s a concerning trait. We have plenty of data to illustrate this. Aiyuk was also a 1st round pick. That’s a promising trait. (For you, promising in this context means “good”) We also have plenty of data to illustrate this.

Now here comes the obvious train, last stop: you. Some prospects have *gasp* good and bad parts of their profile, and (again, I know this is complicated for you) but different prospects have different acquisition costs. So a prospect like Aiyuk, who had promising and concerning features ended up being a good value when he was being drafted behind similarly concerning prospects like Pittman and Mims that’s why I have him. Toney has no draft capital now. He hasn’t worked out. He has no landing spot. We have no idea what his acquisition cost is. His profile is, at the moment, almost entirely concerning.

In any case, a long time ago Thomas Paine described trying to explain things to people like you as trying to give medicine to the dead- something that’s become eminently clear in this thread. You are a lost cause. You want so desperately to have some cool gotcha moment, but multiple people have already pointed out the flaws in this argument. You don’t have the understanding or frankly the intellectual horsepower to have this argument. But please, keep at it. This is fun for me.
I’m glad you mentioned acquisition cost, because the original post mentioned acquiring Toney with a second, to which you replied with a generalised statement about senior season breakouts.

He replied he factors in aspects like athletic profile and draft capital which is why Aiyuk was appealing to him (and specifically cited both as to why Toney interests him with said second, as he assumes he will have both) - which you mocked, and then listed as reasons why you drafted Aiyuk. Once again, your arguing with yourself :lol:

I’m sure he won’t be lining up to spend a second on Toney if he runs a 4.6 and gets drafted in the 4th, but I guess your the only one that’s allowed to adapt your thinking.

The eternal struggle - a narcissists comprehension and their cognitive dissonance.

Stay quoting Thomas Paine though, I’m dazzled lol
What draft capital does Toney have? Which argument are you making? Why are you so wounded by me dunking on people who don’t understand that senior WRs are bad bets?
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:24 pm

So you’re taking issue with speculation now?

Welcome to DLF, the fantasy football forum where speculation isn’t allowed lol

I’m far from wounded. As you say, you like to dunk on posters - no need to get defensive when posters highlight your hypocrisy . Something about heat and kitchens etc.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:41 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:24 pm So you’re taking issue with speculation now?

Welcome to DLF, the fantasy football forum where speculation isn’t allowed lol

I’m far from wounded. As you say, you like to dunk on posters - no need to get defensive when posters highlight your hypocrisy . Something about heat and kitchens etc.
Where did you get that I’m taking issue with speculation? This is what’s called a straw man argument, and a particularly intellectually feeble one at that.

This weird vendetta (did I make you look dumb in another thread?) of yours is so unpalatable and distracting, even for me. It’s one thing if you want to get all unhinged in defense of an actual player, but now you’re just creating entirely tangential straw men. Nobody wants to read this, and you’re embarrassing yourself.

If it helps, I’m sorry for whatever I did that hurt you so badly. I definitely don’t remember it.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Kcarr » Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:07 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:33 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled
I hesitate to jump into this discussion but...

Aiyuk's extenuating circumstances extended out far further just draft capital. He dominated JUCO and came onto a run first team with an established alpha WR (that was drafted in the 1st round); that's a reasonable explanation for why he was a Senior breakout that didn't involve him needing 3 years to learn how to play football.

I ended up with some Aiyuk, but that's not because of any subjective "tape" measurement or blind faith in draft capital. It was because he had plausible reasons for being a Senior breakout, got 1st round draft capital and was going behind other Senior Breakouts (Mims, Pittman) who also didn't have stellar analytical profiles. I'll admit I also liked his tape and was somewhat buying into Shanahan believing he was a HoF talent; but I'm not a tape guru and Shanahan also loved Dante Pettis so these two things didn't factor in too strongly into my evaluation of him.

Claypool would've been a more accurate counter example. As a very data driven drafter, I fully admit I was wrong about that guy. Senior breakout behind JAG WRs.. Looked stiff at Notre Dame and size/speed athletes with limited college production rarely amount to much in the NFL. If a Chase Claypool clone were to enter the draft again I'd probably still miss on him given that I just don't think the process was wrong with him; he just proved to be an outlier :lol: If you can tell me the difference between him and Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Torrey Smith *insert late breakout, high draft capital size/speed specimen flame out here*; I'm all ears as I'd love to have some confidence in drafting these high ceiling players.
The big difference that I see which led to me owning some Claypool, but none of white or perriman as rookies is Claypool was often available in the 2nd round where white was a high 1st and perriman wasnt far behind. At the later capital I think the risk becomes more worth the high upside reward
4th and long: ppr, 10 team, qb, rb, rb, wr, wr, wr, flex, flex, te, k, dl, dl, lb, lb, db, db, dflex, dflex

QB: Kirk Cousins Tyrod Taylor, Jared Goff
RB: Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliot, Theo Riddick, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Jamal Williams
WR: Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Cole Beasley, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Eli Rogers
TE: Eric Ebron, , David Njoku, Jack Doyle
K: Will Lutz
DL: Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter
LB: Luke Kuechley, Bobby Wagner, Jordan Hicks, Mark Barron, Darron Lee
DB: Sean Davis, Morgan Burnett,

IR: Clayton Geathers, Quincy Enunwa, Raekwon McMillan

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby cantguardjake » Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:35 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:41 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:24 pm So you’re taking issue with speculation now?

Welcome to DLF, the fantasy football forum where speculation isn’t allowed lol

I’m far from wounded. As you say, you like to dunk on posters - no need to get defensive when posters highlight your hypocrisy . Something about heat and kitchens etc.
Where did you get that I’m taking issue with speculation? This is what’s called a straw man argument, and a particularly intellectually feeble one at that.

This weird vendetta (did I make you look dumb in another thread?) of yours is so unpalatable and distracting, even for me. It’s one thing if you want to get all unhinged in defense of an actual player, but now you’re just creating entirely tangential straw men. Nobody wants to read this, and you’re embarrassing yourself.

If it helps, I’m sorry for whatever I did that hurt you so badly. I definitely don’t remember it.
You really are something :lol:

Back to the Claypool discussion, I think Terry shows a lot of the same agility that Claypool did and will be the size / speed freak of this year. He said that he played this season at 222 pounds, and he looks faster than Claypool at the same listed height.

Hopefully we get some work out metrics for him as I’m not sure he’d be doing the FSU pro day given he quit?

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:25 am

cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:35 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:41 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:24 pm So you’re taking issue with speculation now?

Welcome to DLF, the fantasy football forum where speculation isn’t allowed lol

I’m far from wounded. As you say, you like to dunk on posters - no need to get defensive when posters highlight your hypocrisy . Something about heat and kitchens etc.
Where did you get that I’m taking issue with speculation? This is what’s called a straw man argument, and a particularly intellectually feeble one at that.

This weird vendetta (did I make you look dumb in another thread?) of yours is so unpalatable and distracting, even for me. It’s one thing if you want to get all unhinged in defense of an actual player, but now you’re just creating entirely tangential straw men. Nobody wants to read this, and you’re embarrassing yourself.

If it helps, I’m sorry for whatever I did that hurt you so badly. I definitely don’t remember it.
You really are something :lol:

Back to the Claypool discussion, I think Terry shows a lot of the same agility that Claypool did and will be the size / speed freak of this year. He said that he played this season at 222 pounds, and he looks faster than Claypool at the same listed height.

Hopefully we get some work out metrics for him as I’m not sure he’d be doing the FSU pro day given he quit?
Love Terry this year. Size/Speed freak that dominated his offense as a (RS)Sophomore. Would still be a far cry from Claypool/DK in terms of weight but I'm definitely interested in him in the late 2nd.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:28 am

Terrace Marshall or Rashod Bateman

I was originally fully in on Bateman and am now shuffling

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:58 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:28 am Terrace Marshall or Rashod Bateman

I was originally fully in on Bateman and am now shuffling
Bateman had a true freshman breakout, which is always impressive, but until this year Marshall was competing for targets with multiple first round talents at WR. I guess at the moment I prefer Bateman, but I need to see how they test and where/when they get drafted.
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:03 am

Kcarr wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:07 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:33 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm OCR immediately backpedals stating he did so due to other extenuating circumstances such as draft capital, and would consider Toney based on this (amongst other factors such as workout metrics, which the original poster also mentioned) - thus actually agreeing with original poster he belittled
I hesitate to jump into this discussion but...

Aiyuk's extenuating circumstances extended out far further just draft capital. He dominated JUCO and came onto a run first team with an established alpha WR (that was drafted in the 1st round); that's a reasonable explanation for why he was a Senior breakout that didn't involve him needing 3 years to learn how to play football.

I ended up with some Aiyuk, but that's not because of any subjective "tape" measurement or blind faith in draft capital. It was because he had plausible reasons for being a Senior breakout, got 1st round draft capital and was going behind other Senior Breakouts (Mims, Pittman) who also didn't have stellar analytical profiles. I'll admit I also liked his tape and was somewhat buying into Shanahan believing he was a HoF talent; but I'm not a tape guru and Shanahan also loved Dante Pettis so these two things didn't factor in too strongly into my evaluation of him.

Claypool would've been a more accurate counter example. As a very data driven drafter, I fully admit I was wrong about that guy. Senior breakout behind JAG WRs.. Looked stiff at Notre Dame and size/speed athletes with limited college production rarely amount to much in the NFL. If a Chase Claypool clone were to enter the draft again I'd probably still miss on him given that I just don't think the process was wrong with him; he just proved to be an outlier :lol: If you can tell me the difference between him and Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Torrey Smith *insert late breakout, high draft capital size/speed specimen flame out here*; I'm all ears as I'd love to have some confidence in drafting these high ceiling players.
The big difference that I see which led to me owning some Claypool, but none of white or perriman as rookies is Claypool was often available in the 2nd round where white was a high 1st and perriman wasnt far behind. At the later capital I think the risk becomes more worth the high upside reward
That’s a really good point. I wasn’t that high on white and Permian for their own reasons, but also the draft capital needed to acquire them. Claypool was a slam dunk auto-pick even if you didn’t like his profile for whatever reason at a late-2nd value.

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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:28 pm

Is there a way to block/ignore certain posters? Trying to find useful information amongst these children bantering is just off-putting. Keep it on topic and swing your dongs somewhere else.
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WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:20 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:28 pm Is there a way to block/ignore certain posters? Trying to find useful information amongst these children bantering is just off-putting. Keep it on topic and swing your dongs somewhere else.
Yes. Click on their username and “add foe”


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