Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[Cameron Giles]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

[StripesOfKC]

Said this on another post but RB landing spots for 2021: (teams that could take an RB in the top 3 rounds)
ATL (doubt Gurley is more than a one year thing)
WSH (if Guice gets hurt again)
TEN (if Henry walks, they probably get a complement for Evans)
PIT
NO (doubt they re-sign Kamara)
JAX (Fournette is gone next year)
ARZ (Drake there on a one year deal)
TB (unless Vaughn really shows out)
SF (lot of decent backs but no true feature one)
SEA (doubt they pay Carson)
NYJ (Gase does not like Le'Veon)
NE (Sony sucks)
MIA (no long term RB on roster)
HOU

Some will get filled by those passed on by others--maybe by big money acquisitions (Kamara, Henry), others internally, maybe Hunt lands somewhere, or DJ/Gurley get chances again, but as of now these are the possibilities for 2021 RBs.

RB strength is what determines strength of a class and to decide that, you have to see how many RB of the future-landing spot with opportunity possibility there are (I would say five this past year with Akers-Rams, CEH-Chiefs, Dobbins-Ravens, Taylor-Colts and Swift-Lions with the chance of a sixth in Dillon-Packers and three in 2019 with Jacobs-Raiders, Montgomery-Bears and Sanders-Eagles)

WR wise I think the 2021 class is equal to 2020 with maybe not as much depth but as much top end talent and possibility for some dream fits: Jamarr Chase-Giants, Rondale Moore-Chiefs, etc

Now the lack of a CFB season could throw a wrench into all of this

[StripesOfKC]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

[bjd5211]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

Chase wouldn't have been drafted after Ruggs if he had been eligible this year. He will be a top 10 pick, could be top 5 but 3 of the top 5 slots are basically already taken by Lawrence, Fields and Oregon LT Penei Sewell, so that might be a tough barrier to crack.

[Cameron Giles]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

It suggests the Raiders valued Ruggs above them.

[Cameron Giles]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

Chase wouldn't have been drafted after Ruggs if he had been eligible this year. He will be a top 10 pick, could be top 5 but 3 of the top 5 slots are basically already taken by Lawrence, Fields and Oregon LT Penei Sewell, so that might be a tough barrier to crack.

This is irrelevant, because there was no scenario where Chase would've been eligible this year. Jeudy or Lamb probably go WR1 in 2019 by the same logic. It doesn't tell us anything.

[StripesOfKC]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

Chase wouldn't have been drafted after Ruggs if he had been eligible this year. He will be a top 10 pick, could be top 5 but 3 of the top 5 slots are basically already taken by Lawrence, Fields and Oregon LT Penei Sewell, so that might be a tough barrier to crack.

Not sure Fields is as much of a top 5 lock as you are suggesting. Have a feeling the fantasy community is higher on hum for the rushing upside than the NFL is.

mid 1st round or higher? Yes, he is probably a lock. Top 5? Not at this point IMO

[StripesOfKC]

That's not really an argument against it.

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

It suggests the Raiders valued Ruggs above them.

And the Jets who chose to go OL and wait till the 2nd round for a WR despite needing one, and the Eagles who chose to wait till their pick to take Reagor rather than trading up for one of them (unlike the Falcons with Julio all those years ago), and the Jaguars who also waited until their 2nd rounder for a receiver rather than move up to secure one of them.

None of this is to say they will bust or aren’t good prospects, but the dynasty community definitely overshot their draft stock compared to what NFL teams thought of them

[jenkins.math]

And yet Ruggs was drafted over both of them.

That's not really an argument against it.

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

You can't just compare draft position from one year to the next. The AJG/Julio year it was seen as those 2 and then a massive drop off to the next WR. Only 2 WRs were picked in the next 40 picks after Julio that year and it was Jonathan Baldwin and Titus Young.

This year you could miss on Jeudy or Lamb and still end up with some high quality prospects at WR. You didn't need to trade up to go and get those guys in the top 10 this year.

If you just use draft capital then Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross were all significantly better prospects than Jeudy and Lamb, but I don't think any analyst would say that.

[Cameron Giles]

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

It suggests the Raiders valued Ruggs above them.

And the Jets who chose to go OL and wait till the 2nd round for a WR despite needing one, and the Eagles who chose to wait till their pick to take Reagor rather than trading up for one of them (unlike the Falcons with Julio all those years ago), and the Jaguars who also waited until their 2nd rounder for a receiver rather than move up to secure one of them.

None of this is to say they will bust or aren’t good prospects, but the dynasty community definitely overshot their draft stock compared to what NFL teams thought of them

You're making a lot of assumptions here. How do you know neither of those teams didn't attempt to trade up and were simply unable to? Also, OL are more valuable than WRs. So, it's not surprising at all that a team like the Jets went OL, when they badly needed one. This is a deep WR class, so they could afford to take that risk.

None of this proves that Jeudy and Lamb are not on the same level as Chase as prospects. If Chase goes Top 5 or something next year, then I'll reverse course, but a year ago Jeudy was a 20-year-old WR coming off winning the Biletnikoff as a sophomore and was receiving a ton of Top 5-10 buzz in mocks.

[StripesOfKC]

That's not really an argument against it.

It suggests the NFL may not have viewed them as highly as the dynasty community did. I saw them talked up to be the 2020 version of the Julio and AJG draft, but they weren't even the top WRs selected in their class. Lamb was as close to Reagor as he was to Ruggs

You can't just compare draft position from one year to the next. The AJG/Julio year it was seen as those 2 and then a massive drop off to the next WR. Only 2 WRs were picked in the next 40 picks after Julio that year and it was Jonathan Baldwin and Titus Young.

This year you could miss on Jeudy or Lamb and still end up with some high quality prospects at WR. You didn't need to trade up to go and get those guys in the top 10 this year.

If you just use draft capital then Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross were all significantly better prospects than Jeudy and Lamb, but I don't think any analyst would say that.

Ross and Mike Williams were seen as reaches at the time with some additional red flags in the form of injury.
Corey Davis, on the other hand, can be argued was a better prospect coming out than Jeudy/Lamb in the NFL’s eyes, with a sparkling analytic profile, a clean bill of health and incredible production his final year in school—the only issue being the absence of top competition.

I never said the NFL was always right in their evaluations of prospects

[Cameron Giles]

You have to keep in mind that in the Julio/AJG draft and the Corey Davis draft, the talent on the offensive line was not nearly as good.

No offensive linemen went in the Top 15 in 2017.
Only 2 went in the Top 15 in 2011.

4 went in the Top 15 in this class. 3 of them went before the first WR. When a premium position like that is loaded in a draft, it will push skill position players down.

[StripesOfKC]

You have to keep in mind that in the Julio/AJG draft and the Corey Davis draft, the talent on the offensive line was not nearly as good.

No offensive linemen went in the Top 15 in 2017.
Only 2 went in the Top 15 in 2011.

4 went in the Top 15 in this class. 3 of them went before the first WR. When a premium position like that is loaded in a draft, it will push skill position players down.

I agree with most of what you have said. If you’ll notice, I didn’t really mention Chase in any of my posts, just that the dynasty community was higher on Lamb and Jeudy than the NFL was.
I agree Chase’s standing is hard to decide without knowing his draft position and how he performs his senior year.
Your point about Jeudy is a good one, but his last year was disappointing (not bad) compared to the hopes people had after 2018. If Chase has a similar trajectory, I doubt he will end up a significantly better prospect than Lamb/Jeudy but right now it is looking as if he will be.
Still in doubt whether that holds—especially considering the uncertainty around the CFB season

[whodunnit]

I took Borghi in the 1st round of my devy league. Then traded back into the draft to take Journey Brown. Keep an eye on both of them.

At WR look for Tylan Wallace to stay healthy and if he does, he will be mentioned in the top 12 next year, IMO

[StripesOfKC]

I took Borghi in the 1st round of my devy league. Then traded back into the draft to take Journey Brown. Keep an eye on both of them.

At WR look for Tylan Wallace to stay healthy and if he does, he will be mentioned in the top 12 next year, IMO

I like the Wallace call. He was the sleeper I was targeting in this draft if he declared.

Borghi has serious PPR potential, but I really want to see how the NFL views him. I could easily see him getting pigeonholed into committee back status, but if he got a role like Kamara in NO or the one CEH looks to have, he would shoot up boards