Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:56 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:01 pm Back in the Dark Ages of the NFL prior to no contact after 5 yards, no spearing, or Horse collars, the size weight argument may have meant something.

Today it is a real tired argument. Even back in those days Marvin Harrison who was 5lb's lighter finished with 1102 receptions.

I love the big guys like Calvin and DK today as much as anyone but 6'0 190 is not in anyway a liability.

Bateman, does have some issues. He plays a bit slower than his 40 time and I don't like the way he gets out of his breaks much so IMO he isn't a lock future stud by any stretch but it won't be a size issue.
Thank you. The NFL just isn't as physical anymore with receivers. Even then, Chad Johnson was saying on Twitter about how he used to play in the 170s early in his college and pro career. Robby Anderson just had a 1000 yard season and he's playing at 6'3, 190 at best. Good chance he's playing in the 180s. Cole Beasley is light and had 80 receptions last season.

Unless someone is 105 lbs, it just enough to base an evaluation on anymore at the WR position. If Bateman and Smith underachieve it won't be because of weight.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:13 pm

I’m not sure of last year stats but using the previous season, of the top 24 wide receivers in PPR scoring only 3 had a BMI over 26.

The current players you’ve used should be case in point, nobody is paying a first or even a second for Robbie Anderson or Cole Beasley so why would you spend a first on someone with a similar frame, that statistically has a higher bust rate - and Beasley’s BMI actually isn’t even bad because he’s 5 foot 7.

We aren’t talking weight we’re talking BMI. I know it’s personal preference but it just seems silly to me that people dismiss BMI so easily.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby murphysxm » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:15 pm

I think Moore, personally, may be the most polarizing pick This season. Will be interesting.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby ThunderTung » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:24 pm

This is one of the most interesting classes I can remember. Outside of Trevor there is so little consensus I love it. New things keep popping up, projections are so volatile this year, and we still have a month to go until the actual draft. Outside of fantasy I don't think I've ever been more excited to see how a draft ends up playing out. This is gonna be fun.
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr

QB(1): Geno Smith
RB(2): ETN/Walker III
WR(2): Chase/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Stevenson/Garrett Wilson
K: Mcpherson
DL(2): T. Walker/Vea
LB(2): D. Long/TJ Edwards
DB(2) Dugger/Moehrig
FLEX: Kenneth Murray
IR: J. Hicks/Milano/Marcus Jones
Bench:
QB: Mac Jones/Bryce Young
RB: Zeke/D. Harris
WR: N. Brown/Demario Douglas/Bobby Trees/Parker/Tyler Scott
TE: Bellinger/Schultz
DL: Barrett/J. Davis/Yannick/
LB: Milano/Edwards/K. Murray/J. Smith
DB: Mathieu/Jonothan Owens

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:00 am

Covid was really good for this class's 40 times
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
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QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Cherokee » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:28 am

ThunderTung wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:24 pm This is one of the most interesting classes I can remember. Outside of Trevor there is so little consensus I love it. New things keep popping up, projections are so volatile this year, and we still have a month to go until the actual draft. Outside of fantasy I don't think I've ever been more excited to see how a draft ends up playing out. This is gonna be fun.
I think we'll actually see Fields go first overall in a lot of SF rookie drafts
12 Team 1QB IDP Full PPR Start 8
QB- Kenny Pickett, Jake Haener, Clayton Tune
RB- Jerrick McKinnon, Elijah Mitchell, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Gainwell, TDP, Jordan Mason
WR- Rondale Moore, Drake London, Jordan Addison, Terrence Marshall , Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Mecole Hardman, Rashid Shaheed, David Bell
TE- Michael Mayer, Likely, Chig, Cade Otten
LB- Jewell, Deablo, Troy Anderson
DE- Phillips, Highsmith
DB- Brisker, Hufanga, Cine
Taxi Squad: Chase Brown, A.T. Perry, Keaton Mitchell, Khalan Laborn, Lew Nichols lll

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:44 am

Cherokee wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:28 am
ThunderTung wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:24 pm This is one of the most interesting classes I can remember. Outside of Trevor there is so little consensus I love it. New things keep popping up, projections are so volatile this year, and we still have a month to go until the actual draft. Outside of fantasy I don't think I've ever been more excited to see how a draft ends up playing out. This is gonna be fun.
I think we'll actually see Fields go first overall in a lot of SF rookie drafts
That wouldn’t surprise me at all. We’ve seem that rushing yards can elevate even a mediocre passer to QB1 in FF. FFers who see past the typhoon of hype during predraft are going to recognize that and take advantage.
Last edited by Bronco Billy on Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby murphysxm » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:46 am

Cherokee wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:28 am
I think we'll actually see Fields go first overall in a lot of SF rookie drafts
I am assuming you see him going to SF? Even in that scenario I would never move him that far up the rankings. Elite QB's perform in any situation. He is an elite athlete that would gain from playing for Kyle, but he is still not in my top 2 in that scenario
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:30 am

cantguardjake wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:13 pm I’m not sure of last year stats but using the previous season, of the top 24 wide receivers in PPR scoring only 3 had a BMI over 26.
Two points:

1. We're operating with numbers weight numbers that players do not play at during the season. It's a snapshot in time.
2. It suggests that BMI is a significant reason for fantasy success, when it's likely a trivial and small reason.
The current players you’ve used should be case in point, nobody is paying a first or even a second for Robbie Anderson or Cole Beasley so why would you spend a first on someone with a similar frame, that statistically has a higher bust rate - and Beasley’s BMI actually isn’t even bad because he’s 5 foot 7.
But, the point is that if a player like Anderson, who is rail thin, can succeed as an outside WR in the NFL, then why can't a more talented version of him with better pedigree succeed?

Again, I'll bring up this:

If Bateman showed up to his pro day at 220 or with a higher BMI, and then lost that weight back down to his playing weight, then what does it mean?

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:24 am

ThunderTung wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:24 pm This is one of the most interesting classes I can remember. Outside of Trevor there is so little consensus I love it. New things keep popping up, projections are so volatile this year, and we still have a month to go until the actual draft. Outside of fantasy I don't think I've ever been more excited to see how a draft ends up playing out. This is gonna be fun.
Agreed, I also think we really need to look at this class and all these weights, times, metrics etc very very differently from past years. Covid has made everything different obviously, these weights and times are going to change. I like to use metrics and film to evaluate but this season im leaning more towards film since i really think the metrics dont mean much this offseason. Guys lost or gained weight like we all have due to the pandemic. 40 times are inaccurate. Its gonna be a very strange draft. I only have Najee, Lawrence and Chase as sure fire guys this season. Everyone else is a total crapshoot more so than usual.

I decided to trade the non superflex 1.03 down for 3 firsts because i think due to the confusion this season you have a great shot at getting value picks later in the draft. Id rather take my 1.07,1.08, and 1.09 and take a shot on some combination of Trevor Javonte Gainwell Bateman Waddle Marshall then get one guy (even chase who i love).

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Ice » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:12 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:00 am Covid was really good for this class's 40 times
😂
They must have really been practicing running from Covid!
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:15 pm

Catching up on podcasts and the like. Recall a conversation about the value of utility players. Thoughts on Amari Rodgers? Listed as a WR, ran something like in the 4.50-4.54 range. Lined up slot, wide and backfield at his proday. Bucky Brooks compared him to a less dynamic Antonio Gibson.
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CL3VELANDBR0WNS » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:58 am

murphysxm wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:15 pm I think Moore, personally, may be the most polarizing pick This season. Will be interesting.
Landing spot dependent as well.
I like almost all of the landing spots in the 21-32 range but see many potential disastrous teams in the 10-20 range with a few good ones sprinkled in. I guess you could say that for all WRs but particularly Moore since he has the potential to be pigeonholed into a gadget role with an uncreative offensive mind.
I wouldn't hate him on the Browns myself but I think a guy like Terrace Marshall might be a better fit given the fact that they already use Kareem Hunt in that low target depth YAC role.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:47 am

Holy hell, Tutu Atwell weighed a buck 55 at his pro day?! Any other eye popping pro day numbers (positive or negative) for him or others?
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Re: Who is your "guy" for this upcoming rookie class?

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:02 pm

Khalil Herbert...remember the name

Serious Antonio Gibson lite vibes for me--if he can even get 4th round capital (though not the same receiving chops)


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