Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[Cameron Giles]

I don't think you should be adverse to drafting smaller WRs in todays NFL. The league is perfect for small WRs to succeed.

Think about it, Cole Beasley is an undrafted WR, at 5'8, 175 and he just went 82/967 last season.

Players like Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Tyreek Hill, etc. are barely 5'10 and they often don't play at their listed weight of 185.

The game is about getting open. If you can get open, regardless of your size, you can succeed in todays NFL.

[nathanq42]

I don't think you should be adverse to drafting smaller WRs in todays NFL. The league is perfect for small WRs to succeed.

Think about it, Cole Beasley is an undrafted WR, at 5'8, 175 and he just went 82/967 last season.

Players like Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Tyreek Hill, etc. are barely 5'10 and they often don't play at their listed weight of 185.

The game is about getting open. If you can get open, regardless of your size, you can succeed in todays NFL.

Agreed, rules don't allow DBs to bully small WRs like back in the day. Name of the game is keep drives alive and don't turn over the ball. Why throw a 50/50 to Mike Evans when Godwin has 5 yards of space all around him?

[bjd5211]

Remind me to check your QB rankings come July hahaha, one guy I'm looking more into is Chris Simms, seems to have been a controversial rankings in the past but his rankings look better and better as the players careers flesh out.

Controversy continues this year, his rankings:

1 Wilson
2 Lawrence
3 Mac Jones
4 Kellen Mond
5 Justin Fields
6 Trey Lance

https://mobile.twitter.com/CSimmsQB/sta ... 7075897346

[StripesOfKC]

Remind me to check your QB rankings come July hahaha, one guy I'm looking more into is Chris Simms, seems to have been a controversial rankings in the past but his rankings look better and better as the players careers flesh out.

Controversy continues this year, his rankings:

1 Wilson
2 Lawrence
3 Mac Jones
4 Kellen Mond
5 Justin Fields
6 Trey Lance

https://mobile.twitter.com/CSimmsQB/sta ... 7075897346

He must really not like something about Lance and Fields' games

Simms normally loves the traits based prospects

[Sriracha]

Remind me to check your QB rankings come July hahaha, one guy I'm looking more into is Chris Simms, seems to have been a controversial rankings in the past but his rankings look better and better as the players careers flesh out.

Controversy continues this year, his rankings:

1 Wilson
2 Lawrence
3 Mac Jones
4 Kellen Mond
5 Justin Fields
6 Trey Lance

https://mobile.twitter.com/CSimmsQB/sta ... 7075897346

He must really not like something about Lance and Fields' games

Simms normally loves the traits based prospects

Just based on what I know about his process, Simms tries to measure QBs in context. Fields and Lance both played in plush situations, so the games where they did not look like NFL passers are especially alarming (Fields: Northwestern, Indiana, Alabama), (Lance: Central Arkansas, South Dakota St.).

Lance is probably the hardest QB to evaluate in a long time, as well given the limited game tape, early age, and competition level so he might just be punting him down because of the added ambiguity.

Kellen Mond getting this much love is interesting though.

edit: just watched his breakdown, here's some cliff notes for those interested:

* all 6 of these guys are 1st round talents
* Wilson a full tier above Lawrence
* Mac Jones elite pocket passer
* Kellen Mond elite traits, NFL ready right now, needs to improvise more (Has him behind Wilson, Mac and ahead of Lawrence right now)
* Fields - Raw, doesn't recover well from bad starts, inconsistent accuracy
* Lance - Comes from one read offense, limited playing time.

So it's more that he Loves Kellen Mond than he hates Fields/Lance

[Ice]

Mond does have a very quick release. Pretty flat ball but there is a lot to work with. Needs better footwork and his elbow is a bit lower than I like to see. Doubt he goes round 1 but should go round 2. He could develop into a quality NFL starter. Reminds me of a young R. Wilson. Could be a real surprise in the NFL. Looks to have a quick mind on his reads. Looks like he could be coached up.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Mond does have a very quick release. Pretty flat ball but there is a lot to work with. Needs better footwork and his elbow is a bit lower than I like to see. Doubt he goes round 1 but should go round 2. He could develop into a quality NFL starter. Reminds me of a young R. Wilson. Could be a real surprise in the NFL. Looks to have a quick mind on his reads. Looks like he could be coached up.

But does he sink his hips?

[AussieMate]

Controversy continues this year, his rankings:

1 Wilson
2 Lawrence
3 Mac Jones
4 Kellen Mond
5 Justin Fields
6 Trey Lance

https://mobile.twitter.com/CSimmsQB/sta ... 7075897346

He must really not like something about Lance and Fields' games

Simms normally loves the traits based prospects

Just based on what I know about his process, Simms tries to measure QBs in context. Fields and Lance both played in plush situations, so the games where they did not look like NFL passers are especially alarming (Fields: Northwestern, Indiana, Alabama), (Lance: Central Arkansas, South Dakota St.).

Lance is probably the hardest QB to evaluate in a long time, as well given the limited game tape, early age, and competition level so he might just be punting him down because of the added ambiguity.

Kellen Mond getting this much love is interesting though.

edit: just watched his breakdown, here's some cliff notes for those interested:

* all 6 of these guys are 1st round talents
* Wilson a full tier above Lawrence
* Mac Jones elite pocket passer
* Kellen Mond elite traits, NFL ready right now, needs to improvise more (Has him behind Wilson, Mac and ahead of Lawrence right now)
* Fields - Raw, doesn't recover well from bad starts, inconsistent accuracy
* Lance - Comes from one read offense, limited playing time.

So it's more that he Loves Kellen Mond than he hates Fields/Lance

I choose to blindly follow this ranking because I've been a huge Wilson fan even before his breakout season, if he didn't like Wilson I would pass it off as Simms missing something because it goes against what I wanted

[Dynos]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQKEuy_xAT4

chris simms talking about his ranking qb 2021

even if have lot of qb, starting to consider him if he's there at 1.05

[zaner75]

I've relied heavily on draft capital and prefer bigger wideouts and missed almost every time. Some of my "highlights" throughout the years include - Greg Little, Ryan Broyles, Sammy Watkins, Cody Latimer, Nelson Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham, Jaelen Strong, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell - most top 2 round NFL draft picks and 1st and 2nd round dynasty picks for me (and I know many of you will be thinking, "who?"). I didn't take Justin Blackmon only because I decided to draft David Wilson. My only hits have been Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas.
With such a low success rate, there is obviously a flaw in my decision making as I've passed on players like Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Tyler Boyd.
I guess I am looking to be able to identify characteristics other than draft capital and measurables (size/speed) that have a higher correlation to successful NFL/fantasy careers. I've been hearing terms like 'breakout age' and 'dominator rating' that seem to suggest a better chance of identifying better prospects. Any idea where I can find more information about things like that?
What processes have you found successful for yourself, if you don't mind sharing? Thanks again.

[killer_of_giants]

chris simms talking about his ranking qb 2021

even if have lot of qb, starting to consider him if he's there at 1.05

i don't know, hasn't played a snap in what, 10 years?

[Bronco Billy]

I’m much less adverse to shorter WRs than I am to slender WRs. Smaller but thicker guys can win against CBs who generally aren’t much bigger than them and offensesive schemes/passing rules give them enough to operate if they can play.

I worry about the slender guys when they get matched up against NFL CBs who are usually fairly strong, and their ability to withstand the beating that NFL players get week after week. Body mass and strength are meaningful in the bigs.

[murphysxm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQKEuy_xAT4

chris simms talking about his ranking qb 2021

even if have lot of qb, starting to consider him if he's there at 1.05

The baseline starts with Rodgers and Mahomes? That is bold

[blemly]

I've relied heavily on draft capital and prefer bigger wideouts and missed almost every time. Some of my "highlights" throughout the years include - Greg Little, Ryan Broyles, Sammy Watkins, Cody Latimer, Nelson Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham, Jaelen Strong, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell - most top 2 round NFL draft picks and 1st and 2nd round dynasty picks for me (and I know many of you will be thinking, "who?"). I didn't take Justin Blackmon only because I decided to draft David Wilson. My only hits have been Alshon Jeffrey, Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas.
With such a low success rate, there is obviously a flaw in my decision making as I've passed on players like Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Tyler Boyd.
I guess I am looking to be able to identify characteristics other than draft capital and measurables (size/speed) that have a higher correlation to successful NFL/fantasy careers. I've been hearing terms like 'breakout age' and 'dominator rating' that seem to suggest a better chance of identifying better prospects. Any idea where I can find more information about things like that?
What processes have you found successful for yourself, if you don't mind sharing? Thanks again.

Player Profiler is where a lot of that information can be found. You may be able to make some searches, but there is a paywall for full access to all of the content. It’s a well run site and I love a lot of the metrics it has available.

[YouMightDieTryin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQKEuy_xAT4

chris simms talking about his ranking qb 2021

even if have lot of qb, starting to consider him if he's there at 1.05

The baseline starts with Rodgers and Mahomes? That is bold

I don't want to overthink this, because we're overthinking this, but could we be looking at a Herbert situation? Where we're seeing two very good QB's ahead of him (Tua/Burrow) and just slightly negating what Wilson has done/can do? I don't think his ceiling is higher than Trevor, but if Wilson went to JAX and Trevor went to NYJ then you start to question which one might have the better career.