Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:53 am

Mike11 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:42 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:30 am
And since when is winning the Heisman indicative of NFL success? There are many outside of the fantasy world who have Chase #1 too; Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, PFF, The Draft Network and others in scouting community have Chase at #1, some don't even have Smith as the #1 Alabama WR. Chase is a bigger, better athlete than Smith and accomplished all same things Smith did (other than the Heisman) when he was 3 years younger than Smith was this season. Smith has the spotlight right now from the Heisman and National Championship, but that will fade between now and the draft and it will be clear Chase is the better pro prospect, and likely 1st WR drafted.
Is athlete only their BMI? Smith is extremely athletically gifted, his quick twitch and fluidity are damn impressive and he's very likely going to have a phenomenal combine. Also Devonta had 1200 14 tds, why are we acting like this is his only good year. Chase quiet literally only has year (unreal year). I love both for what it's worth, I think I lean Chase a little but its really tight for me.
At this point... there is just no way I can confidently say Chase will be the better WR at the NFL level. I'd probably lean Chase.. but it's close. So they're both in the top tier for me and I'm happy with either.

Chase is great, but I don't agree he was the #1 target at LSU just because he finished with the most receiving yards. Jefferson/Chase were both #1's in that offense. The idea that he is so good he pushed Jefferson to the number 2 role as a sophomore is a bit of fantasy. He's also 6' 207lbs which isn't exactly the ideal body type for his style of play, either.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby briank » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:04 pm

steelman wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:43 am
briank wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
murphysxm wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:16 am


If he measures 6'1" 180 I will re-evaluate. My eye test tells me he will come in below each number. when he stands next to a 5'6" Nick Saban, he doesn't exactky tower over him. I have been wrong before though
He's listed at 6'1" 175. I know listings aren't always accurate, but I can't imagine he comes in much below that. I'd bet he's a lot closer to his listed height and weight than what Marquise Brown measured in at. He's got some time to put on good weight.
He just doesn't have the frame to really add weight. He's pretty much maxed out.
You think a guy who's 6'1" and only 175 pounds is maxed out? What???????
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Wilson
RB Mixon/Ja. Williams/Bernard/Davis
WR Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/TY/Washington
TE Kelce/Ertz/Cook
Picks 1.03

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Zeke/Mixon/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Godwin/Golladay/Lockett/Cooks/Fuller/Pittman
TE Kittle/L. Thomas/Tonyan

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Penny/Dillon/Edwards
WR Adams/Diggs/AJ Brown/Godwin/Woods/Boyd/Ruggs/Davis
TE Kittle/Henry/Njoku/Irv Smith

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Roethlisberger/Brees
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Goff
RB
WR Jefferson/Juju/Sutton/Juedy/DSamuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:22 pm

Last time we were fixed into a #1 WR didn't turn out too hot with Harry. I'm keeping my mind open to this one. Lots of moving pieces going on. Gonna be a fun offseason with limited tape, testing, etc.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady
RB: Saquon, Elliott, CEH, K.Hunt, Vaughn, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson,
WR: DJ Moore, OBJ, B.Cooks, Jeudy, Pittman, Shenault, B. Edwards, ESB, Scotty Miller, Peoples-Jones
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon, I Smith Jr
Taxi: T.Johnson, Herbert
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby mgscott » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:35 pm

I will be happy to get either if I can in the top 3-4. I probably have Chase slightly over Smith right now. But man, Smith impresses me much more on tape, so I may have to rethink it. People want to knock him for several reasons (BMI, scheme, Alabama...) but the fact is he produced well with 2-3 other NFL receivers to share with, he dominated this year, all the while running a fairly impressive route tree. Some of his stats were generated by screens and scheme passes, but so were Chase's and pretty much every other WR prospect. You can't say the majority of his stats were from that alone. He was impressive this year any way you look at it. You can say no one with his BMI has succeeded, but anyone can skew stats/trends to fit their narrative. I don't know of a WR prospect who has ever taken a full year off in college by choice and then produced in the NFL. We'll see with both of them.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby mgscott » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:41 pm

Also, no WR, RB or QB has ever played, or not played, in a shortened, pandemic-related college season and then broken out in their first year of the NFL. So they are all trying to buck that trend.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby murphysxm » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:48 pm

Chase produced an 84/1780/20 season as a sophmore, with Justin Jefferson also on the team. I think we forget how awesome he was the last time he played. I actually think it was smart of him to opt out. There is no doubt every team would have thrown bracket coverage on him and his numbers would have declined. Both Smith and Chase benfited from being part of pretty elite offensive squads and both will succeed, I just think Chase is a step above.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Yarnith » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:05 pm

cantguardjake wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:40 am
Versatility? Ruggs lined up almost exclusively outside on the right hand side his junior year - something like 90%+ of snaps, I don’t think NFL teams really care. Regardless, Chase lined up all over the formation in 2019 anyway, so not really sure why that’s an argument.

Chase did at 19 what Smith is doing at 22, there’s just not a universe where Smith is better than Chase.

NFL teams prove time and time again how dumb they are though, Ruggs and Hollywood were clearly not the best receivers in their class so I won’t rule out Smith going first, some GM probably thinks he’ll “open up the offense” or some such lol
Just because you are so definitive that Chase is the greatest I feel compelled to ask. How did Chase play without Jefferson pulling attention and Burrow breaking collegiate passing records? Clearly his long history of high end production makes him a shoe in at the WR1 draft position correct? What did Chase do that Smith has failed to surpass that makes your bold statement factual? Smith put up a better season than Chase with every defense focused purely on shutting him down.

I am not actually arguing Smith is better just that the crazy notion Chase is the WR1 because you say so is plain silly. Lot of things say he may be but a lot say he might not as well.
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:34 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:05 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:40 am
Versatility? Ruggs lined up almost exclusively outside on the right hand side his junior year - something like 90%+ of snaps, I don’t think NFL teams really care. Regardless, Chase lined up all over the formation in 2019 anyway, so not really sure why that’s an argument.

Chase did at 19 what Smith is doing at 22, there’s just not a universe where Smith is better than Chase.

NFL teams prove time and time again how dumb they are though, Ruggs and Hollywood were clearly not the best receivers in their class so I won’t rule out Smith going first, some GM probably thinks he’ll “open up the offense” or some such lol
Just because you are so definitive that Chase is the greatest I feel compelled to ask. How did Chase play without Jefferson pulling attention and Burrow breaking collegiate passing records? Clearly his long history of high end production makes him a shoe in at the WR1 draft position correct? What did Chase do that Smith has failed to surpass that makes your bold statement factual? Smith put up a better season than Chase with every defense focused purely on shutting him down.

I am not actually arguing Smith is better just that the crazy notion Chase is the WR1 because you say so is plain silly. Lot of things say he may be but a lot say he might not as well.
Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Yarnith » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:57 pm

cantguardjake wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:34 pm
Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.
Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer :D . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:06 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:57 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:34 pm
Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.
Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer :D . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.
Marvin Harrison played at 175 in college. He's as close to Devonta's body type as we can get and shows us what we all expect Smith to do once he gets to the NFL: put on weight.

If you'd like you can drop him to the 1.5 tier of WRs like consensus did with Lamb,Jeudy/Jefferson,Reagor last year... but I think this past year just further validates the inclusion of the two into the same tier. Jefferson is at worst a similar talent and is very likely to be the best WR of this loaded draft class. I believe we could easily see something similar happen when we look back at this draft class next season.

The arguments against Smith just seem way too nit picky given the wide array of positives on his profile. If Smith goes on to have the best WR career in this draft class no one will bat an eye

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:16 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:57 pm
Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.
No argument from me except for the Lawrence part in the NFL. Lawrence is a lock 1st pick.

Wilson may very well go #2 overall. I will be a little surprised if Fields goes ahead of him personally.
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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Yarnith » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:20 pm

Ice wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:16 pm
Yarnith wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:57 pm
Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.
No argument from me except for the Lawrence part. Lawrence is a lock 1st pick.

Wilson may very well go #2 overall. I will be a little surprised if Fields goes ahead of him personally.
Oh I agree Lawrence will go 1. I mean in fantasy I would totally cash out the 1.1 to get Wilson+ whatever they wanna pay to move up for Lawrence. I dont hate Lawrence I just like Wilson that much.
12 team standard, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2WR/TE, 1flex


QB: J. Allen, J. Goff, D. Haskins

RB: A. Kamara, J. Taylor, CE,H, Ty Johnson, B. Love, D. Guice, R. Calais, D. Washington

WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, R. Woods, D. Slayton, P. Williams, H. Ruggs, D. Mims, T. Smith, KJ Hamler

TE: G. Kittle, H. Henry

2021 1.12 , 3.8, 3.12, 4.9, 4.12

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby cantguardjake » Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:05 pm

Yarnith wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:57 pm
cantguardjake wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:34 pm
Lol would I have avoided this barrage if I prefaced it with “in my opinion”?

In my opinion I don’t think there’s anything that Smith does better than Chase. Chase is bigger, younger, will have a better speed score, has better age adjusted production, has a better breakout age, had better competition for production within his own team (I don’t necessarily care about this but people do, and yes it’s now clear Jefferson > Jeudy and Ruggs), and in my opinion has better film.

Smiths gets comped to Marvin Harrison even though he’s lighter and taller though, so there’s that I guess.
Hey man you wanna come out strong you gotta throw some weight on it or come in softer :D . The only real Harrison comp is he is one of the 30% of fantasy WR1's that were sub 26 BMI. That is 3 out of 10, 9ish out of 32 league wide? Based off his college numbers he could very easily be in that group. There is a lot of data that WR's with 1 year of college success are very likely NFL busts as well. Then again Chase had a helluva 1 year so he could easily be in that group. Time will tell.

Speaking of opinions to get people fired up.

I like Wilson more than Fields, I like him so much in fact I would probably trade back giving up Lawrence to happily grab Wilson+ doing so. I like how Wilson plays on tape better and love how he throws. Just my opinion though I understand why many wont agree.
What do those stats look like for sub 24 BMIs? That’s where he’s tracking at the moment. How many of those receivers with 1 year of production did so in their sophomore year and then sat out their junior season? I think it’s pretty safe to assume Chase would have had a reasonable year after seeing what Marshall did to the DBs LSU faced lol, I don’t really think that data set applies in this instance.

Don’t get me wrong, Smith is solid but Chase was on another level last year. 5 minutes of either players game cut ups and you can tell the difference instantly.

Re: Wilson, I actually agree fully :lol: I already plan to trade back if given the opportunity to draft Lawrence and pick up Wilson instead. I’m in the Wilson is #2 camp, and Trevor is a little over rated camp (if that’s even a camp lol). I think it may have been FantasyFreak that mentioned him in this thread in around October and have been in love ever since.

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby ThunderTung » Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:15 am

Looks like Borghi isn't coming out this year, probably a smart move for him, but was really excited about the thought that I could snag him in the late 2nd early 3rd this year lol
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr
Picks(2021):1.01,1.04,2.01,2.05,2.07
QB(1): Hurts
RB(2): Sanders/Harris
WR(2): Edelman/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Hardman/Kirk
K: Jake Elliot
DL(2): Ngakoue/Hicks
LB(2): Hicks/J. Smith
DB(2) Devin McCourty/Mathieu
FLEX: Murray

Bench:
QB: Mayfield/Foles
RB: Barber/JJ Taylor/Burkhead/Ollison
WR: S. Miller/Sims/Campbell/Robinson/ KJ Hill/Meyers
TE: Gronk/Sternberger/Asiasi/Keene
DL: Dex. Lawrence/Allen
LB: Chubb/Barrett/Whitehead/Bentley/Vigil/Jones
DB: Gilmore/Sorenson

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Re: Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

Postby remedy29 » Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:46 pm

Ice wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:02 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:38 pm
Ice wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:33 pm
Devonta Smith is as close to a consensus #1 WR we have seen in years.

He looks awesome. Not great size but looks unstoppable. He will most likely go top 5 in the NFL draft.

Looks like another pretty strong WR class overall.
Except a lot of people (if not a majority) have Ja'marr Chase as WR1 in the class, so Smith definitely isn't a "consensus" #1 WR.
A lot of People? * I should have mentioned NFL instead of fantasy.

I get the fantasy love for Chase but Smith proved this year to be lethal playing inside or out. He is going to make a NFL QB really happy week 1. His route skill is really polished already.

The extra year of college really help and having a NFL quality QB will almost ensure he will be the 1st WR drafted in the NFL. His versatility is exceptional. Sound against press and great in space.

Chase will need a great combine after sitting out a season to even be considered the top pick at WR while Smith was winning the Heisman, the first for a WR since 1991. I can just imagine a GM trying to explain taking Chase ahead of him to the owner.
I am beginning to agree with this.

I hate that Chase choose to not compete this year. Yes, he would have been doubled coverage, I guess he had no confidence to show he can succeed in that situation as the teams WR1.

Smith choose to compete in his Senior to increase his draft stock...all he did was prove he was the best WR in the nation and won a National Championship and Heisman along the way. He literally could not be more impressive at the collegiate level.

I was watching a review of Chase and he was compared to Sammy Watkins. Then I thought, yes, that's a good comparison. Then I immediately was scared off of this guy.

A lot of the positives of Smith were said of Jeudy. How does Jeudy and Smith compare as prospects?

One final note, Phil Simms said Smith is one of the most impressive WRs he has scene at college level. I tend to lean towards his opinion than many others on this forum...
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