Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[Sriracha]

So you're saying I'm offering to much for 1.1? Got it. Lowering it to Lock and maybe a 2 lol. I kid. In both my leagues, owner of 1.1 has already said it's two 1s, QB, +

Personally, way too much. I'd trade you Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray for that haul; both of which should be valued higher than Lawrence imo. Really feels like you're just assuming he's going to be Patrick Mahomes before he's played a down in the NFL.. and while he's very likely going to an organization with a poor track record for developing QBs.

I wouldnt trade Kyler or a top QB for a mid 1, late 1 and Baker. Top QB for mid 1, late 1 and Tua and Jeudy is a lot better though

I don't look at trades like these in terms of "draft capital". The value of a mid 1st, late 1st will change from year to year.

This year, the 1.06 is going to land you one of: Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, J'marr Chase, Etienne, Harris, Javonte.. with the possibility of Trask and Jones joining the fray depending on draft capital and landing spot.

Even a late 1st is likely to include a very good WR prospect (Smith, Moore, Waddle, Bateman).

And Mayfield has quietly erupted since OBJ's injury. PFF ranks him as the #3 QB since then.

I also love late 2nd round picks in SF where I've had a lot of success drafting underrated prospects that slip (Dionate Johnson for instance).

Not a smash accept for me (with Watson or Murray) but definitely would make me think about it if I were looking to rebuild

[Jigga94]

Best of luck to you, but I'd smash accept on any of these trades so fast I might break a finger.

Not a smash accept for me (with Watson or Murray) but definitely would make me think about it if I were looking to rebuild

Interesting

[Sriracha]

Best of luck to you, but I'd smash accept on any of these trades so fast I might break a finger.

Not a smash accept for me (with Watson or Murray) but definitely would make me think about it if I were looking to rebuild

Interesting

The trade is for Trevor Lawrence...

[stoneghost28]

I'll own the 1.04 pick as well and I'm not too keen on it. There seems to be a top 3 and then after that picks between 4-9 are going to be interchanged a ton. This may be ironed out somewhat with the combine/draft locations, but I don't see it changing much. Somewhat like last year between Ruggs/Reagor/Jefferson muddled mess. Pick your poison.

I don’t see that at all. Fields might go 1.01 in places because of rushing upside, Lawrence and Etienne are Lawrence and Etienne, you’ve got a generational WR or two and you have some massive Harris fans. I see tier 1 as 4-6 deep in superflex.

Lawrence and fields have nearly identical career rushing numbers , why does fields somehow have a rushing upside Lawrence doesn’t .

I think he's significantly more athletic. I'm aware Lawrence is far more athletic than a lot of people superficially might think, but he's not Fields.

That being said, as I looked up the rushing #'s, at first, I saw that you were right, in terms of production, but then I remembered to look at the attempts, because that's what really matters. How often do they take off and run?

Overall:
Fields: 7.5 attempts per game
Lawrence: 5.4 attempts per game

Just as big:
how often do they run '19 and '20 combined?

Fields: 10 attempts per game
Lawrence: 6.6 attempts per game.

Lawerence offers drafters far more running points than people probably expect to see (though it's the Jets, so who knows), he's probably going to get you a good 2-3 extra points per game on the ground.

Fields probably offers more like 2.5-4.5+ per game on the ground.

Will also be important to note where they go unless either refuse to go to the Jets/Jags.

Jegs have no RB, and Mims to build around

Jags have interesting RB's, and a deceptively high upside collection of passing weapons (Chark, Shenault, Cole, Josh Oliver returning from a missed season after it looked like he was ready to break out according to reports).

I have no idea why people are ignoring Fields as a potential 1.01 target, his situation is almost certainly significantly more attractive, period, than Lawrence, but I get that Lawrence has a floor that's a dream. Basically Andrew Luck the Sequel. But unfortunately the FO/Ownership in NYJ is just as incompetent as it was in Indy for Luck.

Jags aren't great shakes either but they cleaned out the deadwood last year and have a lot more tools for a young QB to rely upon.

Can't go wrong either way, and it's worth mentioning that these guys were 1 and 1A in the recruiting battle out of high school several years ago. Both were 5 stars, both were ranked 1-2 by all sites, with Lawrence getting 2 first places to Fields 1 first place ranking, and that's overall, not just positionally.

Very annoyed I didn't land the 1.01 or 1.02 in any of my 2QB super flex leagues. Instead the highest picks I have are 1 1.03, and 3 1.04's. Will try to package picks to move up where I need a QB.

[stoneghost28]

I'll own the 1.04 pick as well and I'm not too keen on it. There seems to be a top 3 and then after that picks between 4-9 are going to be interchanged a ton. This may be ironed out somewhat with the combine/draft locations, but I don't see it changing much. Somewhat like last year between Ruggs/Reagor/Jefferson muddled mess. Pick your poison.

I don’t see that at all. Fields might go 1.01 in places because of rushing upside, Lawrence and Etienne are Lawrence and Etienne, you’ve got a generational WR or two and you have some massive Harris fans. I see tier 1 as 4-6 deep in superflex.

I imagine youre considering Chase a generational WR but whos the other?

I think guys like Moore, Waddle, and Smith are all potentially hugely special, some other guys too, Moore comes w/the most attractive pedigree if he can stay healthy, small or not. Batemen could be special. It's a fantastic WR draft, third in a row. The RB's, ehhh, that's the issue, glad to hear about the UNC guy, who I didn't know squat about going into the year as a potential top 10-12 or better overall guy. But yeah, I think the top tier or two are fantastic, especially in super flex, but as for RB, unless you have a top pick, yikes. That's why I loaded up on 1sts from teams that I thought would suck in the '19 season, and it ended up working out, across 11 or 12 leagues I had 27 firsts last spring, and was able to just get an absolute ton of Dobbins (8), Swift (7), Taylor (6), CEH (5), and some Akers (3 drafted, 2 acquired via trade before the breakout but in RSO leagues) both via the picks, and in a handful of cases through trades and startups (in my one dynasty startup I got Taylor, Swift and Dobbins, while in my keeper startup I got Taylor and Dobbins, and traded for Swift).

I think that's probably a good strategy too, basically buy up picks for heavy RB drafts 18-24 months in advance, then sell picks for lesser perceived RB drafts in advance ('16, '19, '22). My one caveat is that I still don't know how the players will evaluate declaring this year, or wanting a perceived chance at a full, coherent season for scouts to look at from the fall of '21. I imagine all the guys that hear their top 50-75 picks will come out.

[Sriracha]

I don’t see that at all. Fields might go 1.01 in places because of rushing upside, Lawrence and Etienne are Lawrence and Etienne, you’ve got a generational WR or two and you have some massive Harris fans. I see tier 1 as 4-6 deep in superflex.

I imagine youre considering Chase a generational WR but whos the other?

I think guys like Moore, Waddle, and Smith are all potentially hugely special, some other guys too, Moore comes w/the most attractive pedigree if he can stay healthy, small or not. Batemen could be special. It's a fantastic WR draft, third in a row. The RB's, ehhh, that's the issue, glad to hear about the UNC guy, who I didn't know squat about going into the year as a potential top 10-12 or better overall guy. But yeah, I think the top tier or two are fantastic, especially in super flex, but as for RB, unless you have a top pick, yikes. That's why I loaded up on 1sts from teams that I thought would suck in the '19 season, and it ended up working out, across 11 or 12 leagues I had 27 firsts last spring, and was able to just get an absolute ton of Dobbins (8), Swift (7), Taylor (6), CEH (5), and some Akers (3 drafted, 2 acquired via trade before the breakout but in RSO leagues) both via the picks, and in a handful of cases through trades and startups (in my one dynasty startup I got Taylor, Swift and Dobbins, while in my keeper startup I got Taylor and Dobbins, and traded for Swift).

I think that's probably a good strategy too, basically buy up picks for heavy RB drafts 18-24 months in advance, then sell picks for lesser perceived RB drafts in advance ('16, '19, '22). My one caveat is that I still don't know how the players will evaluate declaring this year, or wanting a perceived chance at a full, coherent season for scouts to look at from the fall of '21. I imagine all the guys that hear their top 50-75 picks will come out.

A lot more question marks with this class, imo. I personally think Rondale Moore is a stud, but he's tiny. Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle are also tiny.

Bateman's been disappointing this year. But looked really good last year and is the more prototypical 6'2 210.

Then you've got a bunch of WRs that I believe have serious, serious bust risk. I felt a lot more certain about this last class of WRs; but there's still a lot to dive into in the off-season, so that could change.

[mgscott]

[/quote]

A lot more question marks with this class, imo. I personally think Rondale Moore is a stud, but he's tiny. Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle are also tiny.

Bateman's been disappointing this year. But looked really good last year and is the more prototypical 6'2 210.

Then you've got a bunch of WRs that I believe have serious, serious bust risk. I felt a lot more certain about this last class of WRs; but there's still a lot to dive into in the off-season, so that could change.
[/quote]

I guess it depends on what you define as tiny, but Smith isn't short at all, but very thin. So far, I am very impressed with Smith. Other than being thin, I don't see a lot of negatives. He seems explosive and has great hands. Add in the fact that he got his own with several other talented WR's every year he has been there, I see him as a top 1-2 WR this year.

[Krypto_King]

Bateman's been disappointing this year.

I've seen/heard this group think bouncing around. Can you explain how 50% MS of Yards and TDs is disappointing? More for me I guess

[mgscott]

Bateman's been disappointing this year.

I've seen/heard this group think bouncing around. Can you explain how 50% MS of Yards and TDs is disappointing? More for me I guess

I think is just because his stats don't look gaudy due to only playing 5 games this year. QB play was pretty rough this year as well.

[bjd5211]

Bateman's been disappointing this year.

I've seen/heard this group think bouncing around. Can you explain how 50% MS of Yards and TDs is disappointing? More for me I guess

I think is just because his stats don't look gaudy due to only playing 5 games this year. QB play was pretty rough this year as well.

Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well, so they haven't been throwing as much.

Their primary RB Mohamed Ibrahim has almost 1,000 yards in 6 yames, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game, and over 5 yards per carry.

[Nanananananana]

I've seen/heard this group think bouncing around. Can you explain how 50% MS of Yards and TDs is disappointing? More for me I guess

I think is just because his stats don't look gaudy due to only playing 5 games this year. QB play was pretty rough this year as well.

Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well, so they haven't been throwing as much.

Their primary RB Mohamed Ibrahim has almost 1,000 yards in 6 yames, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game, and over 5 yards per carry.

Bateman Opted back in played a couple games, crushed it, then opted back out.

[Sriracha]

I think is just because his stats don't look gaudy due to only playing 5 games this year. QB play was pretty rough this year as well.

Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well, so they haven't been throwing as much.

Their primary RB Mohamed Ibrahim has almost 1,000 yards in 6 yames, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game, and over 5 yards per carry.

Bateman Opted back in played a couple games, crushed it, then opted back out.

They have the same QB throwing the ball. Yards per catch is down, TD rate down (both of which usually go up when the offense is more run heavy). Their running game is the reason? They averaged 179 rushing yards per game last year, and are averaging 199 this year. The difference is Mohamed isn't sharing the rock with anyone (whereas last year it was split between Mohammed and Rodney Smith)

Might just be a Tyler Johnson difference, though.

[mgscott]

Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well, so they haven't been throwing as much.

Their primary RB Mohamed Ibrahim has almost 1,000 yards in 6 yames, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game, and over 5 yards per carry.

Bateman Opted back in played a couple games, crushed it, then opted back out.

They have the same QB throwing the ball. Yards per catch is down, TD rate down (both of which usually go up when the offense is more run heavy). Their running game is the reason? They averaged 179 rushing yards per game last year, and are averaging 199 this year. The difference is Mohamed isn't sharing the rock with anyone (whereas last year it was split between Mohammed and Rodney Smith)

Might just be a Tyler Johnson difference, though.

Even though it's the same QB, he doesn't seem to be playing near as well this year.

[AussieMate]

A lot more question marks with this class, imo. I personally think Rondale Moore is a stud, but he's tiny. Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle are also tiny.

Bateman's been disappointing this year. But looked really good last year and is the more prototypical 6'2 210.

Then you've got a bunch of WRs that I believe have serious, serious bust risk. I felt a lot more certain about this last class of WRs; but there's still a lot to dive into in the off-season, so that could change.
[/quote]

I guess it depends on what you define as tiny, but Smith isn't short at all, but very thin. So far, I am very impressed with Smith. Other than being thin, I don't see a lot of negatives. He seems explosive and has great hands. Add in the fact that he got his own with several other talented WR's every year he has been there, I see him as a top 1-2 WR this year.
[/quote]

I am loving the hype Smith has been getting, I said last year somewhere in this forum that I hoped Smith would come out as I thought he was the most talented of the Bama receivers last year and wanted to nab him with a late 1st maybe early 2nd. Obviously means nothing as we will need 3-4 yrs before we can make an accurate assessment of my claim.
What that offence could have been this year if Waddle stayed healthy!!!

He is slight but so was Lamb coming in, and he does do everything so well that I can look past his weight.

[ThunderTung]

Bateman's been disappointing this year.

I've seen/heard this group think bouncing around. Can you explain how 50% MS of Yards and TDs is disappointing? More for me I guess

I think is just because his stats don't look gaudy due to only playing 5 games this year. QB play was pretty rough this year as well.

Thats what makes this draft so interesting. How many guys will fly under the radar because their stat sheet looked so rough due to their games getting cancelled. Could be a lot of late round gems in this class