Bryan Edwards

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Camperhead
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Camperhead » Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:43 am

Scrolling back, you’ll see I was among the Edwards truthers in August. With having to cut 40 percent of our roster each summer prior to restocking via the rookie/free agent draft, he looks to now be on our roster bubble. Still 4+ months to decide, but at this point it looks like the last keeper may come down to him, Gabriel Davis or Preston Williams (I’m a PW believer as well, but that’s not looking so good, especially with a lot of mocks sending a top WR to Miami at the sixth pick).
10-Team Superflex League, 25 rosters spots
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TD=6, TDP=4, 15 yds rush/rec=1, 35 yds pass=1, 2 rec=1

QB - Mahomes, Wilson, Bridgewater, Hurts, Heinicke, Eason
RB - Kamara, Chubb, LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Dillon
WR/TE - Hopkins, Godwin, A.J. Brown, Sutton, Lamb, Harry, A.J. Green, B.Edwards, P.Williams, G.Davis
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StripesOfKC
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:06 pm

Camperhead wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:43 am Scrolling back, you’ll see I was among the Edwards truthers in August. With having to cut 40 percent of our roster each summer prior to restocking via the rookie/free agent draft, he looks to now be on our roster bubble. Still 4+ months to decide, but at this point it looks like the last keeper may come down to him, Gabriel Davis or Preston Williams (I’m a PW believer as well, but that’s not looking so good, especially with a lot of mocks sending a top WR to Miami at the sixth pick).
I am so done with Edwards and still prefer him over Preston

Davis is definitely murkier

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:13 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:06 pm
Camperhead wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:43 am Scrolling back, you’ll see I was among the Edwards truthers in August. With having to cut 40 percent of our roster each summer prior to restocking via the rookie/free agent draft, he looks to now be on our roster bubble. Still 4+ months to decide, but at this point it looks like the last keeper may come down to him, Gabriel Davis or Preston Williams (I’m a PW believer as well, but that’s not looking so good, especially with a lot of mocks sending a top WR to Miami at the sixth pick).
I am so done with Edwards and still prefer him over Preston

Davis is definitely murkier
Looks like I need to send out offers for Edwards after all...

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:34 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:13 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:06 pm
Camperhead wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:43 am Scrolling back, you’ll see I was among the Edwards truthers in August. With having to cut 40 percent of our roster each summer prior to restocking via the rookie/free agent draft, he looks to now be on our roster bubble. Still 4+ months to decide, but at this point it looks like the last keeper may come down to him, Gabriel Davis or Preston Williams (I’m a PW believer as well, but that’s not looking so good, especially with a lot of mocks sending a top WR to Miami at the sixth pick).
I am so done with Edwards and still prefer him over Preston

Davis is definitely murkier
Looks like I need to send out offers for Edwards after all...
I’m one Raiders 3rd round pick on a WR away from snapping accept on just about anything

He was my must have player in the draft last year with his profile but the history of guys this unproductive as a rookie isn’t good

Thankfully Ruggs sucking gives him a shot

I might be easier to persuade than most though on moving him with my bias. I’d really prefer to own the player not on the Raiders if two guys are remotely close...

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:43 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:34 pm
Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:13 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:06 pm

I am so done with Edwards and still prefer him over Preston

Davis is definitely murkier
Looks like I need to send out offers for Edwards after all...
I’m one Raiders 3rd round pick on a WR away from snapping accept on just about anything

He was my must have player in the draft last year with his profile but the history of guys this unproductive as a rookie isn’t good

Thankfully Ruggs sucking gives him a shot

I might be easier to persuade than most though on moving him with my bias. I’d really prefer to own the player not on the Raiders if two guys are remotely close...
So far I've only been able to acquire him in one league, and I had to overpay. :lol:

I think you're bailing on him too fast. At least he was efficient when he was on the field, and if there is any excuse for a rookie WR to not produce in year 1 it was 2020 during COVID year with limited practice sessions.

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby dustyroads » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:11 am

Agree with Sriracha on this one. COVID offseason and injuries hurt Edwards a lot. Even once he was back, the raiders were giving him less than 30% of snaps. Unless his injury was still lingering, or he looked like complete trash in practice (which I never remember hearing/reading), he was destined to do nothing last season. A rookie isn't going to get up to speed playing less than 30% of snaps over the second half of the season. I think we are also looking through tinted lenses at guys like him because of the unprecedented amount of success JJ had setting all those rookie records. Not so long ago a 3 year window was the normal expectation for a rookie WR. Selling a guy with Edwards profile after a season, let alone a global pandemic/injury plagued/incredibly low usage season, seems an over-reaction to me. I wouldn't sell for any less than what I paid last rookie draft, and TBH I don't love any of the guys going in his range this year rn either. Bunch of either undersized/bad metrics/poor testing JAGs IMO; after Marshall and E. Moore I'm not too interested in any of em.

Speculation obvs. but it also hurt Edwards that Agholor came out of nowhere to produce as well as he did. They had less incentive or need to push Edwards into a more prominent role. But the fact that they lost Agholor, and replaced him with Smokey, to me says they are more concerned about Ruggs performing well as their outside speed/stretch the field guy then they are with Edwards. But I guess the draft will be telling. If they don't take another WR in the first 3 rounds, I have high hopes for Edwards this year turning into at least a WR3/flex and continuing to develop.

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:16 am

He was also a senior WR and he was a third round pick. Even with his breakout age, that’s a relatively low probability prospect. He might just not be that good.

I haven’t had any shares but if he’s cheap I might look for some this summer. Somebody has to catch passes in Vegas beside Waller, right?
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:25 am

How many FA WR have the brought in this offseason or resigned? I've lost count. He's caught in a muddy mess. I think he's talented enough to play, but will LAV give him the chance is the question.
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QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:08 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:16 am He was also a senior WR and he was a third round pick. Even with his breakout age, that’s a relatively low probability prospect. He might just not be that good.
Relatively small sample size, but historically this is incorrect. While being a senior declare is a massive red flag for Sophomore breakouts there is only a marginal difference in hit rates for true freshman breakouts (40% vs 44%); That number drops to a whopping 9% for Sophomore breakout Senior declares.

Based on breakout age + early declare + draft capital; As a true freshman breakout with top 100 draft capital Edwards' cohort has something like a 65% hit rate which isn't that much lower than the highest hit rate prospects (true freshman breakout, 1st round draft capital, early declare).

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:54 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:08 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:16 am He was also a senior WR and he was a third round pick. Even with his breakout age, that’s a relatively low probability prospect. He might just not be that good.
Relatively small sample size, but historically this is incorrect. While being a senior declare is a massive red flag for Sophomore breakouts there is only a marginal difference in hit rates for true freshman breakouts (40% vs 44%); That number drops to a whopping 9% for Sophomore breakout Senior declares.

Based on breakout age + early declare + draft capital; As a true freshman breakout with top 100 draft capital Edwards' cohort has something like a 65% hit rate which isn't that much lower than the highest hit rate prospects (true freshman breakout, 1st round draft capital, early declare).
Maybe you just misspoke- Edwards wasn’t an early declare, right?
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:54 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:08 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:16 am He was also a senior WR and he was a third round pick. Even with his breakout age, that’s a relatively low probability prospect. He might just not be that good.
Relatively small sample size, but historically this is incorrect. While being a senior declare is a massive red flag for Sophomore breakouts there is only a marginal difference in hit rates for true freshman breakouts (40% vs 44%); That number drops to a whopping 9% for Sophomore breakout Senior declares.

Based on breakout age + early declare + draft capital; As a true freshman breakout with top 100 draft capital Edwards' cohort has something like a 65% hit rate which isn't that much lower than the highest hit rate prospects (true freshman breakout, 1st round draft capital, early declare).
Maybe you just misspoke- Edwards wasn’t an early declare, right?
Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:54 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:08 am

Relatively small sample size, but historically this is incorrect. While being a senior declare is a massive red flag for Sophomore breakouts there is only a marginal difference in hit rates for true freshman breakouts (40% vs 44%); That number drops to a whopping 9% for Sophomore breakout Senior declares.

Based on breakout age + early declare + draft capital; As a true freshman breakout with top 100 draft capital Edwards' cohort has something like a 65% hit rate which isn't that much lower than the highest hit rate prospects (true freshman breakout, 1st round draft capital, early declare).
Maybe you just misspoke- Edwards wasn’t an early declare, right?
Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:54 am

Maybe you just misspoke- Edwards wasn’t an early declare, right?
Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:48 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/
Nice.

I read the Amico data when he put it on Twitter. It’s compelling. I agree with his premise- the data looks like breakout year is more important than breakout age.

Having said that, look at the regression lines in the bottom of the article that compare hit rate to draft capital for “target group” players (early declare, freshman breakout) and non-target players. Even if Edwards was an early declare guy and therefore in the target group, he’d still be ~50/50 to hit with his draft capital. I think it’s implied that his cohort is therefore worse than 50/50 to hit, no? I wish we had regression lines for players who only fall into one cohort, but it looks like we don’t.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:56 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:48 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am

You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/
Nice.

I read the Amico data when he put it on Twitter. It’s compelling. I agree with his premise- the data looks like breakout year is more important than breakout age.

Having said that, look at the regression lines in the bottom of the article that compare hit rate to draft capital for “target group” players (early declare, freshman breakout) and non-target players. Even if Edwards was an early declare guy and therefore in the target group, he’d still be ~50/50 to hit with his draft capital. I think it’s implied that his cohort is therefore worse than 50/50 to hit, no? I wish we had regression lines for players who only fall into one cohort, but it looks like we don’t.
Now that you mention it, it's difficult to say because they don't specifically highlight his cohort (Freshman breakout + Non-early declare + top 100 draft capital); but my guess is that it would be slightly lower than the 63% specified (based on the aforementioned 40% hit rate vs 44% hit rate).

Wish I could pull the data myself :( But based on the data I'd guess it'd be slightly > 55%


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