Bryan Edwards

[dustyroads]

I remember a WR who wasnt getting many targets from Derek Carr at one point - his name Amari Cooper. I recall plenty of people calling Cooper a bust during that period when Carr & him werent connecting. Seemed to work out alright for him in the end.

Not comparing the two talent wise - just noting that just because a player who is basically in his first full year of NFL (I consider 2020 a lost year between recovery from 2019 injury, 2020 injuries & pandemic) is only getting a steady diet of 4-5 targets a game does not make him a bust in my book. If this was his rookie year - which imho for developmental purposes it is - its a pretty solid one.

Now if the goal was to expect Edwards to be a bona-fide Alpha WR1 from Day 1 (well apart from unreasonable expectations) then maybe it is time to re-adjust those expectations. However if you were more prepared to expect a slow build into a WR2 - then plenty of time for that to come about. The tape, at least for me, shows he is legit. I am not concerned long term about his target volume in 2021. Doing so is exactly how owners become bad owners - by making long term decisions on short term data that actually isnt that bad.

In any case I will be curious to see what owners seeking to sell Edwards are going to get for him atm - I'd be surprised if it is anything more than a 3rd in most leagues. Contenders are not likely to be giving up 2nds to get WRs that they wont put in the lineup and rebuilders are likely to value the early 2nd more. Swap for a different WR that another owner is unhappy with? Dont think Edwards atm will net you anything better than a Denzel Mims, Paris Campbell, N'Keal Harry, JJAW type. Maybe if you're lucky but I highly doubt it you'll lateral to Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault, Elijah/Rondale Moore. Jalen Reagor / Terrace Marshall might be the best optimal outcome if you're trying to get out and I doubt many people are excited by thier 2021 season so far.

I rather have the WR who is on pace for 700-800 yards in his age 23 season despite all the target spread. That suggests a Robert Woods / Mike Williams / Christian Kirk type career arc. The good news is that likely many owners will think like some above and you'll possibly be able to scoop up shares and use him as a WR3 at a WR 5/6 price next year or 2023.

Agree with this and it's pretty much where I am at on him too. He's basically playing his rookie season this year, the team is a bleep show with Gruden, Ruggs, and now Arnette for any young guy trying to find stability in the league, and his investment point was a mid to late 2nd round pick for the majority of owners. There's a lot of room for improvement obv. but I've been getting hit up all season with people trying to sneak him as a free throw in on a trade or buying low for future 3rds. People are too spoiled by early WR breakouts IMO, and also seem to be both throwing away Edwards amazing analytical profile coming out of college saying he's already worthless, yet simultaneously holding it against him for not immediately producing like a superstar. I'd still prefer him on my taxi/end of bench more than what I see other owners in my league holding in those spots.

[IR1]

I remember a WR who wasnt getting many targets from Derek Carr at one point - his name Amari Cooper. I recall plenty of people calling Cooper a bust during that period when Carr & him werent connecting. Seemed to work out alright for him in the end.

Not comparing the two talent wise - just noting that just because a player who is basically in his first full year of NFL (I consider 2020 a lost year between recovery from 2019 injury, 2020 injuries & pandemic) is only getting a steady diet of 4-5 targets a game does not make him a bust in my book. If this was his rookie year - which imho for developmental purposes it is - its a pretty solid one.

Now if the goal was to expect Edwards to be a bona-fide Alpha WR1 from Day 1 (well apart from unreasonable expectations) then maybe it is time to re-adjust those expectations. However if you were more prepared to expect a slow build into a WR2 - then plenty of time for that to come about. The tape, at least for me, shows he is legit. I am not concerned long term about his target volume in 2021. Doing so is exactly how owners become bad owners - by making long term decisions on short term data that actually isnt that bad.

In any case I will be curious to see what owners seeking to sell Edwards are going to get for him atm - I'd be surprised if it is anything more than a 3rd in most leagues. Contenders are not likely to be giving up 2nds to get WRs that they wont put in the lineup and rebuilders are likely to value the early 2nd more. Swap for a different WR that another owner is unhappy with? Dont think Edwards atm will net you anything better than a Denzel Mims, Paris Campbell, N'Keal Harry, JJAW type. Maybe if you're lucky but I highly doubt it you'll lateral to Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault, Elijah/Rondale Moore. Jalen Reagor / Terrace Marshall might be the best optimal outcome if you're trying to get out and I doubt many people are excited by thier 2021 season so far.

I rather have the WR who is on pace for 700-800 yards in his age 23 season despite all the target spread. That suggests a Robert Woods / Mike Williams / Christian Kirk type career arc. The good news is that likely many owners will think like some above and you'll possibly be able to scoop up shares and use him as a WR3 at a WR 5/6 price next year or 2023.

Agree with this and it's pretty much where I am at on him too. He's basically playing his rookie season this year, the team is a bleep show with Gruden, Ruggs, and now Arnette for any young guy trying to find stability in the league, and his investment point was a mid to late 2nd round pick for the majority of owners. There's a lot of room for improvement obv. but I've been getting hit up all season with people trying to sneak him as a free throw in on a trade or buying low for future 3rds. People are too spoiled by early WR breakouts IMO, and also seem to be both throwing away Edwards amazing analytical profile coming out of college saying he's already worthless, yet simultaneously holding it against him for not immediately producing like a superstar. I'd still prefer him on my taxi/end of bench more than what I see other owners in my league holding in those spots.

Kind of agree with this. If I have room, I'd still hold, but there is a thread looking at breakout rate for wr and I think it accounts for this scenario. viewtopic.php?f=5&t=221031

[ArrylT]

I remember a WR who wasnt getting many targets from Derek Carr at one point - his name Amari Cooper. I recall plenty of people calling Cooper a bust during that period when Carr & him werent connecting. Seemed to work out alright for him in the end.

Not comparing the two talent wise - just noting that just because a player who is basically in his first full year of NFL (I consider 2020 a lost year between recovery from 2019 injury, 2020 injuries & pandemic) is only getting a steady diet of 4-5 targets a game does not make him a bust in my book. If this was his rookie year - which imho for developmental purposes it is - its a pretty solid one.

Cooper and Edwards aren't comparable at all beyond playing with Derek Carr. Cooper went 72/1070/6 as a rookie and 83/1153/5 in his second season. It wasn't a matter of if Cooper could produce, it was a matter of if he could get back to the production he had proven capable of.

Edwards has 29 catches in 20 games and has proven nothing so far.

I too won't say that Edwards is on the path to being irrelevant just yet, but it's a bad comparison.

I rather have the WR who is on pace for 700-800 yards in his age 23 season despite all the target spread. That suggests a Robert Woods / Mike Williams / Christian Kirk type career arc. The good news is that likely many owners will think like some above and you'll possibly be able to scoop up shares and use him as a WR3 at a WR 5/6 price next year or 2023.

Woods had a rare 6th-year breakout and had to change teams to do it and land with one of the best offensive coaches in recent memory. Mike Williams with the not-as-rare, but still rare 5th-year breakout. I don't know if these are things you want to bet on. There's probably a stronger chance he's trending towards Chris Conley and Marquez Valdes-Scantling territory.

I don't think his career is over either and he could still reach Top-36 territory one day, but he has to show a lot more before a Robert Woods type of breakout seems feasible. Right now, Edwards looks like a depth WR.

That is basically what I was comparing / pointing out. There was a time when we knew Cooper was productive & on an arc to become a WR1 and he still was not getting a high target volume. Simply noting that a lack of high volume targets, when in a crowded situation is not a negative to me, since Edwards is not a player I was expecting to have a Chase/Jefferson/Browm immediate impact. The fact that he is consistently getting a # of targets is of more importance to me.

Woods breakout was actually Year 5. After Week 10 2017 he was WR 15 on the season - but an injury caused him to miss enough games that he got overlooked by many. However 2017 was the year he switched teams and immediately became more productive and finished as WR 33 overall even with 1/4 of a season missed. Obviously there are no guarantees with Edwards - just again noting his target volume & production with, along with metrics & tape, make it (a WR2/3 career arc) a potential outcome.

I'll agree Chris Conley is the low end projection but even that is not a big negative to me because Conley also immediately had a fantasy relevant season the year he left KC - unfortunately he landed on the wrong team / bad luck - Jaguars with Foles/Minshew. MVS is too early to comment on for me because he's still on his original team and a lot of his delay in production has been missed games / lack of snaps over the years - so no clue what his trajectory is yet.

Regardless imo Edwards Yards/G is a lot more similar to Woods/Williams Yr 2 than Conley Yr 2. Maybe he'll be more mid comp Emmanual Sanders.

Interestingly enough there are currently 6 WR who have a Yards / Reception average over 17 yards.

Ruggs
Edwards
Chase
Sanders
Samuel
Q Watkins

Of those 6 only 2 have a Yard / Target below 10 yards.

Edwards & Sanders.

Sammy Watkins is pretty close at 16.2 yard / reception and a sub 10 Yard / Target. But Watkins is a whole different debate.

[Cameron Giles]

That is basically what I was comparing / pointing out. There was a time when we knew Cooper was productive & on an arc to become a WR1 and he still was not getting a high target volume. Simply noting that a lack of high volume targets, when in a crowded situation is not a negative to me, since Edwards is not a player I was expecting to have a Chase/Jefferson/Browm immediate impact. The fact that he is consistently getting a # of targets is of more importance to me.

Cooper in his 2nd season was WR14. He missed out on a WR1 season by less than 9 points. Cooper's problem was not about lacking targets or volume to be fantasy relevant. He was already on a trajectory to reach his potential in his first two seasons.

Edwards issue is that we don't know if he's actually good or not to earn the targets he needs to be fantasy relevant. Getting targets is partially a skill. He's averaging 4.3 targets/gm, which isn't anything special.

And that number could get worse over the remainder of his contract if the Raiders upgrade at WR (as most people expect them to try to do). Then you'd be looking at a situation where he's behind that player, Waller, and Renfrow.

There's still plenty of season left and adding Desean Jackson doesn't prevent him from turning it around, but right now his path is looking dim.

[nathanq42]

He drops a dud last week then goes 3 of 3 for 88 yards and a TD...

[FantasyFreak]

He drops a dud last week then goes 3 of 3 for 88 yards and a TD...

He only gets open in zone, and hey, the game's out of hand, it's a passing game dream. He's not very good. 35 year Raider fan, I'm telling you. He's nothing special.

[nathanq42]

35 year Raider fan

My condolences

Seriously though thanks for the insight, hopefully I can cut ties after a "solid" performance like this

[FantasyFreak]

35 year Raider fan

My condolences

Seriously though thanks for the insight, hopefully I can cut ties after a "solid" performance like this

I did myself in best ball. Probably cost myself a few points, but still the top scoring team, and should claim 2 points for the win and 2 for top 4 top scoring this week, so no loss. I just don't see it. Again, it's all crossers, or the odd 50/50 ball on the sideline. He gets a zone he can hit over the middle the odd time, and will out jump a guy or fight a guy off on a great placed contested catch, and that's it. He's just not good against man at all. Cannot separate.

[YouMightDieTryin]

35 year Raider fan

My condolences

Seriously though thanks for the insight, hopefully I can cut ties after a "solid" performance like this

I did myself in best ball. Probably cost myself a few points, but still the top scoring team, and should claim 2 points for the win and 2 for top 4 top scoring this week, so no loss. I just don't see it. Again, it's all crossers, or the odd 50/50 ball on the sideline. He gets a zone he can hit over the middle the odd time, and will out jump a guy or fight a guy off on a great placed contested catch, and that's it. He's just not good against man at all. Cannot separate.

Sheesh. Why'd you have to bring these facts to my attention?! Watching previous career highlights every route is just across the middle against the zone. Then what I really see more of is a body catch a majority of the time. I wonder if that has a big factor in his drops? Anything away from his body he's not able to cradle into his body and thus he drops. He shows small flashes of light, but only 4 targets isn't enough to do the job. I would like to know what he'd do with 10+ targets, but he needs to get open for that to ever happen.

[Needalife]

Cannot separate.

This is what I see the most. I feel like he would have been an alpha 15 years ago when DBs were allowed to be physical. These days, speed and route running are needed along with size to be great. I just feel like his catches always have a defender draped all over him. I liked him as a prospect but have sold off all of my shares since grabbing him in a few rookie drafts.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

He runs kind of sloppy. He may be able to work on the crispness of his routes - but he also might just be that type that only goes intermeriate/deep like a Golladay.

[FantasyFreak]

Useless. The Raiders don't have an outside player on their roster who can get open, now that Ruggs is gone.

[Cameron Giles]

Useless. The Raiders don't have an outside player on their roster who can get open, now that Ruggs is gone.

It's unfortunate that Ruggs turned out to be a POS, because he was taking a leap as a player this season

Edwards looks like he's pretty far down the totem pole regardless

[FantasyFreak]

Useless. The Raiders don't have an outside player on their roster who can get open, now that Ruggs is gone.

It's unfortunate that Ruggs turned out to be a POS, because he was taking a leap as a player this season

Edwards looks like he's pretty far down the totem pole regardless

The loss of Ruggs appears to be worse than Gruden. Since Ruggs was cut, they are 0-3, and haven't scored more than 16 points in a game. The outside receivers have done absolutely nothing. He would have been an elite deep threat/big play guy for many years. What a waste.

[raiders444]

I'm done. This guy gets like an 80% snap share and is a decoy or run blocker. No different than a blocking TE. Zay Jones and DeSean already look better on that team. Wasted pick by me after getting woo'd by all the preseason camp fluff. Took him over the likes of Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool and a bunch of others!