Bryan Edwards

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:00 pm

If you look at the regression curve and trace it to roughly 81st overall, you’ll see that that’s almost exactly where the hit rate crosses under 50% for the ideal, freshman breakout, early declare group.

There’s no way Edwards’ cohort is better than that.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:19 pm

It's rough because the graph is in increments of 50, but it looks like 81st ~= 55% to me so maybe 50/50 is closer to where he lies?

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:21 pm

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/
Well I'm convinced

Definitely not cutting during draft season. Thanks man. Great content. Wish I had it during earlier drafts to contextualize breakout age and analytic factors (ie a sophomore breakout for a senior declare)

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby krtbuckeye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:32 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/
That is some great stuff! Great read, and while I don’t usually hold onto my draft picks (I like to let a guy prove it at the NFL level a bit and can usually get my league to bite on picks just above where they drafted a guy), I’m going to be using this to maybe target some value guys moving forward!
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:13 am

Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:21 am
Sriracha wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:59 am

Yea, he came out as a Senior. I was using early declare there as a criteria to measure him against. In other words, as a true freshman breakout, non-early declare with top 100 draft capital he still has a fairly high hit rate.

He could definitely still be a part of the ~35% that don't hit; but as an analytical prospect his senior declare is a pretty marginal dent on his resume.
You have any data that I could look at? This is interesting.
Np, here ya go: https://www.sportsgrid.com/fantasy/two- ... e-is-dead/
Nice link. Thank you. Are those breakout ages based on 30% DR? I know a bit of places use a 20% threshold. I remember seeing a detailed spreadsheet last year with 20 vs 30% and the 30 was definitely more accurate, but it seemed like less players hit it so it led to a smaller sample size. Regardless, this is still useful data either way

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:17 am

Potential lift off :lol:

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby dustyroads » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:18 am

How close was that called off TD? I missed the end of the game to sleep lol. Otherwise looks like Carr turned it around and Edwards had a solid stat line.

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:27 am

Setting my obvious bias aside, I really think Edwards greatest hurdle was winning Gruden’s and Carr’s trust in game situations. I don’t think he’ll average more than 5-6 targets consistently this year, but he’s got a real role now for this offense as one of the few outside WRs that can win at the catch point. I want to see how he performs against the stingy Steelers before I go wheels up because I’m not sure I have a lot of trust in either Carr or Gruden with respect to usage
Last edited by alewilliam789 on Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby raiders444 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:35 am

dustyroads wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:18 am How close was that called off TD? I missed the end of the game to sleep lol. Otherwise looks like Carr turned it around and Edwards had a solid stat line.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Shankopotamus » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:35 am

May only be of any value if Mr 20 targets goes down with an injury.
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:31 am

alewilliam789 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:27 am Setting my obvious bias aside, I really think Edwards greatest hurdle was winning Gruden’s and Carr’s trust in game situations. I don’t think he’ll average more than 5-6 targets consistently this year, but he’s got a real role now for this offense as one of the few outside WRs that can win at the catch point. I want to see how he performs against the stingy Steelers before I go wheels up because I’m not sure I have a lot of trust in either Carr or Gruden with respect to usage
I'm really hoping the final drives serve as a launch point for his role in the offense.

In the most crucial moments of the game Edwards had 4 catches for 80 yards in 8 plays.

... despite this he was still being subbed out for Renfrow and Zay Jones in the redzone :lol:

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby mgscott » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:56 am

Sriracha wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:31 am
alewilliam789 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:27 am Setting my obvious bias aside, I really think Edwards greatest hurdle was winning Gruden’s and Carr’s trust in game situations. I don’t think he’ll average more than 5-6 targets consistently this year, but he’s got a real role now for this offense as one of the few outside WRs that can win at the catch point. I want to see how he performs against the stingy Steelers before I go wheels up because I’m not sure I have a lot of trust in either Carr or Gruden with respect to usage
I'm really hoping the final drives serve as a launch point for his role in the offense.

In the most crucial moments of the game Edwards had 4 catches for 80 yards in 8 plays.

... despite this he was still being subbed out for Renfrow and Zay Jones in the redzone :lol:
Yeah, I didn't get this. You could tell Carr still mostly just looks for Waller and then Renfrow, but why not keep Edwards in when in the red zone. Good to see usage late in the game, but concerning that Carr barely looked at him otherwise. Hopefully this is the beginning of some increased trust.

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Shankopotamus » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:54 pm

Waldman seems to think Edwards was more involved in the gameplan than it originally looked during the broadcast.

https://youtu.be/HI63JXt_uQ4
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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:18 pm

Shankopotamus wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:54 pm Waldman seems to think Edwards was more involved in the gameplan than it originally looked during the broadcast.

https://youtu.be/HI63JXt_uQ4
Edwards was the leading WR in terms of snap percentage; Edging out Ruggs 66% to 65%.

Pretty sure he was a big part of the game plan, just wasn't getting the targets. Carr seemed to lock onto Waller for most of the game... so maybe what he needs to earn is the trust of Carr and not Gruden and the coaches?

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Re: Bryan Edwards

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:36 pm

Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:18 pm
Shankopotamus wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:54 pm Waldman seems to think Edwards was more involved in the gameplan than it originally looked during the broadcast.

https://youtu.be/HI63JXt_uQ4
Edwards was the leading WR in terms of snap percentage; Edging out Ruggs 66% to 65%.

Pretty sure he was a big part of the game plan, just wasn't getting the targets. Carr seemed to lock onto Waller for most of the game... so maybe what he needs to earn is the trust of Carr and not Gruden and the coaches?
He certainly did when it mattered most. Waller is always going to be a target hog. It's going to take a while before Ruggs and Edwards get even close to the respect Waller does from Carr. Saying that, Carr is starting to trust Edwards to make a play. He threw a back shoulder to Edwards for a TD week 17 last year, and he threw two 50/50 balls to him Monday downfield. Carr will audible a lot at the LOS, so a lot could be what he sees at the time, even if Gruden calls a play, Carr has the ability at the LOS to change it. Clearly late in the 4th and OT, Carr was looking for Edwards. Edwards missed a lot of time last year, but late last year, and Monday night late, Carr showed trust in him.

Here's the TD from last year, week 17. Definitely need some trust to make that throw.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR6aVpJNEAA
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