Rojo outlook and value

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maxhyde
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby maxhyde » Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:36 pm
................................................................................................... this is your last chance to sell high on RoJo. :mrgreen:
:lol:
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
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RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
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elvisn
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby elvisn » Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am

I'm a RoJo fan, think he's getting a lot of unfair criticisms. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid player and will produce as a solid RB2 at least.

I've seen these 3 pieces of analysis recently and they outline it much better than I ever could.

So here's the links... I've cut and pasted the text from them here. But they include videos and a worth a look, share and like for the authors time and efforts.

------
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootbal ... s_and_the/

Now that classes are over and I've been stuck at home in quarantine I've had a ton of time on my hands. Our recent rookie draft in my dynasty league really brought my attention back to Fantasy and I've spent my last couple of weeks doing a ton of research. I've decided to start a mini-series diving into some of the more controversial players in Fantasy and explain the whole situation surrounding them, starting off with Ronald Jones.

As my rookie draft was approaching and I started doing some investigating on Reddit, I saw that many people were writing off Ronald Jones as "trash" and "JAG" and I was pretty confused. I watched most of the buccaneers games last year, and he really looked like a player with talent to me. In addition, people were claiming that Vaughn had a good chance to take over the backfield, or at least carve out a role large enough to justify a 1st round rookie pick. To address these perceptions, this is going to be a two part post. Make sure you read all of it (or at least the TL,DR) before downvoting or upvoting.


1) Ronald Jones is not Trash. Here's some basic stats:

Last year, RoJo averaged 4.2 YPC (5.1 per touch) on 172 attempts for 724 yards. Barber averaged 3.1 YPC (3.4 per touch) on 154 attempts for 470 yards. For those who didn't watch Bucs games, Ronald was by far the better runner and the only reason Barber saw the field was because of pass protection.

Ronald is also very good at gaining extra yards.

He averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry (14th in the league, ahead of guys like Zeke, Kamara, and Aaron Jones, and well above Barber who averaged 1.7).

He was also 4th in the league in Attempts per Broken Tackle at 7.5 carries/broken tackle, only behind Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Damien Williams.

Don't believe me? Check Pro Football Reference's advanced rushing metrics. Here is a highlight reel of RoJo from last season that you can watch if you're interested in how he's breaking tackles.

Ronald also had over 200 yards called back from penalty last year, including 80 on 2 carries vs the rams (if you watched the highlight reel you might have seen the penalty flags). The Bucs were the most highly-penalized team in 2019. If they can cut some of those holding and illegal block-in-the-back penalties, RoJo won't lose potential yards off of his O-Line's mistakes.

Another concern with Ronald is his receiving ability. Can't succeed with Brady if you can't catch, right? This is a justified concern, as coming out of college he only had 32 catches for 302 yards, and had some drops on film. Well, this year, he caught 31 out of 32 catchable balls (on 41 targets) for 309 yards at 10.0 yards per reception (2nd among RBs, only behind Austin Ekeler at 10.8). In addition, he has been working on his receiving work this offseason as shown in short videos by his trainer, Luke Neal. People who claim he was a terrible receiver last year and will be a bad one going forwards either haven't watched games or are clinging to the Ke'Shawn Vaughn narrative. Speaking of that...


2) Ke'Shawn Vaughn was a guy that they needed to draft, not someone who is supposed to be their feature guy.

Going in to the draft, the Bucs front office stated that they needed to draft a running back. At that point in time, the only to RBs on the roster were RoJo and Dare Ogunbowale, a special teams and change-of-pace back. They said that they needed to take a back to complement Ronald and fill the hole left by Barber And they did. They took Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the 3rd round. I believe that Vaughn will be their backup and will command a similar workload to Barber. If they really wanted to take a guy to replace Ronald, Akers and Dobbins were both available in the 2nd round but they looked elsewhere.

Now some people claim that Ronald was "inherited by the new regime" and they would rather start a guy that they drafted. Here's what I have to tell you: The Buccaneer's current GM is the same one who drafted Ronald. That is important. You may not think he's the coaches guy, but the GM believes in him.

In addition, the Arians (the coach that everyone says wants to replace RoJo because he inherited him) is a guy who speaks his mind. He said in regards to Jameis "We can win with that guy, we can win with anyone". Him AND Licht (the GM) also spoke very highly of RoJo, saying that "We have a lot of faith in Ronald, and in fact, we have more faith in him now than we ever have". If Arians likes a player, he talks him up (just think about his statements of Godwin last year).

In regards to Vaughn's potential, he will definitely have a role in the offense. He will most likely gain many of the carries that Barber lost, and will have some receiving work, but based on Arians' comments, the circumstances regarding his draft stock, and my projected improvement of Ronald, Vaughn will be the backup.


My Projections for 2020:

Ronald Jones: 214 carries for 963 yards (4.6 YPC) and 8 TDs, 46 receptions for 374 yards (63 targets, 8.13 YPR) and 2 TDs.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn: 122 carries for 537 yards (4.4 YPC) and 4 TDs, 25 receptions for 210 yards (40 targets, 8.4 YPR) and 0 TDs.


TL,DR: There is a large movement for drafting Vaughn in the 1st round of Dynasty rookie drafts or above Ronald Jones in redraft leagues. My personal analysis shows that Ronald will in fact be the leader of their timeshare (think Aaron Jones - Jamaal Williams type snap counts) and will be their #1 RB. In my opinion, narratives can be manipulated but stats dont lie, and stats show that Ronald isn't trash at all but in fact a capable young back (younger than Vaughn, mind you) who could take on a larger share of work that people have been led to believe.

If you have any questions or comments and want to have a discussion, please post below! Also, drop some suggestions for who I should make a Big Facts post about next, and how I could have improved this post.

*Please be sure to read the post, or at least the TL,DR before upvoting or downvoting. I put effort into this post and want to have a legitimate discussion.


EDIT- Pass Protection: A lot of you have mentioned Ronald's poor pass protection. Here's my take on that: Ronald may be a poor pass protector, and definitely was last year, but he showed signs of major improvement throughout the year. Many also claim that Vaughn will see the field a lot more because he is a far better pass protector, but pre-draft analysis claims he is an average to subpar pass protector. Another thing to mention is that with a shortened offseason and Arians' tendancy to play the veteran, it may take at least a few weeks for Vaughn to start seeing a significant share of snaps, and for him to uproot RoJo as the starter would take for him to prove that he is significantly better, not only at understanding the pass pro scheme but also at running the ball (think of how long it took for DJ to upseat CJ2k in Arizona even though he was by far the more explosive player). Pass pro is one of the hardest things for a RB to learn and claiming that a rookie off of a shortened offseason will be significantly better than Ronald is preposterous to me. I'm still projecting a timeshare because Vaughn will see a good amount of work as he is a decent (not amazing) blocker, but I still see him as the 2 to RoJo's 1.
--------------
https://www.bucsnation.com/2020/4/30/21 ... protection

Hey all!

So as most are well aware by now, unless you've been living under a rock, the common reasoning behind many people's apparent lack of trust in Ronald Jones as the primary RB in this backfield has been his inability to protect the QB. I've always thought this was a bit overblown based on one bad block (not even game...and I'll get to that soon enough) against the Jaguars week 13. I've combed through a lot of RoJo pass pro reps in the past few hours and compiled some film review here, because to me it's clear that while RoJo won't fool anyone as an elite pass blocker...he was more than capable of holding his own a majority of the time. So let's get into it.

Since I already mentioned the missed block that resulted in a Jameis fumble, let's start there:

So, yeah...that's not a great look for Jones. It's clear he expects to be the help on the blind side, and allows a free runner off the other side. Jameis does what he can to avoid the sack and make something out of nothing, but ultimately fumbles, resulting in a turnover. After this play, Jones was pulled and didn't see another snap. After the game, Arians specifically mentioned Jones missed a protection change and said "you can't run the football if you can't protect the quarterback." Fair point, Bruce. The media and fans took off with that line and seemingly accepted that was the norm for RoJo.

Except it really wasn't the norm for him. Before I go on, I will preface the rest of this write-up by saying RoJo really wasn't used as a primary pass protector a whole lot, in general, especially early in the season. We drastically over-used Barber for the first half of the season, to the point where RoJo would maybe get one or two pass blocking reps in a game. Typically Dare was the guy who was the primary 3rd down, long yardage pass blocker because, truth be told, he was the best of the 3 at it. After watching all this film, I'd say RoJo was easily 2nd best...with Barber a pretty distant 3rd. He just wasn't very good at recognizing and picking up blitzes, which I'm sure many believed was RoJo's biggest weakness after that Jags game (it really wasn't much of an issue beyond that one play, but I'll also get to what I believe was his biggest weakness).

I also want to mention something else important...none of our RBs were really asked to be only pass protectors very often. Maybe ~5-10 times per game split between all 3 of them, depending on what types of blitzes the opposing defenses were running. About 90% of the time, the RBs would actually do 1 of 3 things: run a quick leak out as a checkdown, chip block to help on an edge rusher before leaking out as a checkdown, or search for a block and if nobody was there, then leak out as a checkdown. Very rarely were any of the 3 RBs tasked with straight up standing ground in the backfield and protecting the QB. That's not how Arians runs his offense...he likes to have the extra option for the QB. So not being used much as a pass protector is hardly a knock on RoJo, he was simply used far more often as a potential check-down option when he was in the game, instead (which is a good thing since this was not a staple in Koetter's offense).

Anyways, here are a few more snaps from earlier in the same game:

Right off the bat I will show what I meant by the RB searching for someone to block and leaking out as a receiver if nobody is coming. Here, RoJo's first assignment is block #26 if he comes on the blitz. That guy instead drops into coverage, so instead of standing around with his dick in his hand, RoJo leaks out into the flat. Pretty straight forward stuff.

Here, he again is matched up with #26, who ends up using a little twist action and coming off the edge on the blitz. RoJo recognizes it and steps out to cut the corner and stops the blitz dead in its tracks. Solid rep.

The only other truly notable pass pro rep before he was pulled here. This is also something you'll notice we ask the RBs to do more often than asking them to take on blitzers 1-on-1...here he provides help to...MARPET?!...pulling all the way across the formation to take on that LB (what a beast). RoJo seals the edge and helps Marpet wash the rusher past the pocket. Another solid rep. And that's the extent of it in Jacksonville. His first true pass pro rep of the 2nd half was the one he missed the protection change and that was that.

So how did he bounce back? Let's check in on week 14 against the Colts...in short, he was fine.

So here again he provides help on the edge, this time to OJ who actually gets beat to the inside. Instead of trying to redirect the pressure, RoJo helps clean him up inside, allowing Jameis plenty of space to escape the pocket. Nothing too exciting.

I really like this one. He recognizes the blitz right away and steps out wide to cut it off. Watson actually helps him by rerouting the blitzing DB and forcing him off balance, allowing RoJo to clean him up easily. With essentially no pressure coming from that side of the line, Jameis is able to step to his left and reward Watson for his troubles with a TD. And again...that's it. He looked just fine in his two reps but naturally there may have been some hesitation to use him a ton as a pass protector after being pulled the week before. On to week 15, in Detroit.

First up, RoJo steps up into the hole before the blitzing LB is able to build a head of steam. I would like to see RoJo use better balance here, as it appears he's anticipating the LB to attempt to blow through him and his balance gets a little uneven. But overall, his willingness to step into the hole before the LB gets there shuts the blitz down before it begins and he wins the rep. Now for the bad:

Here he get's a litttttle over-anxious to get out into his route and got fooled by the delayed blitz. Hard to tell if his assignment was to block first or if he simply decided to cut his route to try to stop the LB, but it results in him being stuck in no-man's land. Ultimately, Winston sees the delay in time and makes a quick throw to counter it.

Also from this game, a great example from Peyton Barber of that "chip and route" we ask our RBs to do so often. Just figured I'd throw it in here because it's legit the best thing I saw from Barber in all of this.

Ok so I will also include a few other games I looked at randomly throughout the season to see kinda how RoJo was used at different points. Again, didn't really include a whole lot of film from early on because RoJo simply wasn't being used much in pass protection situations with Barber getting so many reps. But I included one rep from the Giants game week 3 because I thought it was a good example of what I would say was RoJo's actual biggest weakness, which was blocking speed-to-power rushes 1-on-1. Early on he tended to sit back and wait more for these type of free-blitzers:

He gets caught a little off guard due to the play action counter and doesn't really have a clean angle or footing to hold his ground. That said, he is able to redirect the blitz and allows Jameis to navigate around it, so it's hardly an awful rep...especially considering the play action leading up to it. Fast forward to week 11, against the Saints:

This is a fantastic recognition of the blitz coming off the opposite corner, especially considering the Saints showed so much pressure on the other side. Rather than trying to set and most likely lose balance against the speedy DB, he simply hits and re-routes him, which is all he can do here. I'm just fine with this outcome against that defensive front.

Then would you look at that...gets a similar front later in the game and is able to get out and stop the blitz dead in its tracks, perfect form to lock him up and win the rep. The progression in his footwork, recognition, and balance is legitimately noticeable in these later games, which is really encouraging to see. It's just unfortunate one bad play in Jacksonville had to influence so many people's opinion of him.

So the final game I'll include here I wanted to do last because I would consider it a real turning point in the "trust factor" for RoJo as a pass protector (before the Jags game forced Arians to dial it back again). Week 12 in Atlanta was maybe the game they used RoJo the most as a legitimate pass protector, and got (mostly) positive results.

But first...I honestly don't remember this play live but sweet baby Jesus this was a 97 yard TD if Watford doesn't twitch:

Ok back to blocking...THE VERY NEXT PLAY:

I've heard some people question RoJo's effort and maybe that's true from a small sample size, but I've honestly never seen him give legitimately questionable effort and this right here is a hell of a block. Jameis feigns the hand-off but RoJo already recognizes they're about to have company and chops the defender down at the knees, opening up a massive lane for Jameis to scramble for the 1st.

His one negative rep of this game, and honest to God it's tough to fault him a ton here. The LB comes like an absolute missile and lowers the shoulder on RoJo. He gets blasted back because...physics...but gets his hands inside the LBs frame and locks him up before finishing him into the ground. He is ultimately called for a hold, which is probably the right call because he doesn't release the block as the LB is falling...but he also doesn't completely lose balance like he did early on in the season against the Giants. I think by adding some mass in the off-season, he'll be able to hold up better against these types of rushes because his form here really isn't bad at all until the very end. Ultimately, physics won the rep, but the improvement is still apparent.

Back to the positives, here...he squares up the DE after play action and is able to keep him to the inside, allowing Jameis some room to operate. Fine rep.

Another play action and this time the size of the DT makes it tough to stop him on the first try...but he redirects him and hustles back to clear him out of the pocket. For a RB RoJo's size, this ends up being a positive result because of his effort.

And finally, we will end with maybe my favorite rep. He's tasked with a free running EDGE who attempts to convert speed to power on him and RoJo stops him square in his tracks. Again, RoJo still has a ways to go to be an elite pass protector, but this just shows his development in that area since his rookie season. "Small" RBs aren't supposed to stop this guy. RoJo doesn't just get a hand on him, he locks him up and takes him out of the play.

CONCLUSION

So what did I find? Well, I found a RB who can still improve some things, sure. I won't act like he was perfect. But I also found a RB who doesn't get a ton of credit for the things he's already improved upon. He certainly has to improve contact balance from time to time, especially against free runners who can get a running start. But that might be the toughest job to ask any RB in pass protection, and as I mentioned before...adding some mass like he's done this off-season should help him improve in that area.

Overall, I think it's relatively clear that he's just not quite the liability in pass protection as the media and fan driven narrative would have you believe. Think a combination of factors outside of the film itself have really fueled it to the point that many just accept it as the truth rather than digging deeper...so I hope this helps give a little insight and alleviates some of the fears people have regarding Tom Brady's safety at QB (at least as it pertains to RoJo blocking for him). In reality, he will likely be dumping the ball off to RoJo FAR more often than he will be expecting RoJo to protect him, anyways.
---------------

https://twitter.com/FFBallAllDay/status ... 8036756485


3 months of pre-draft research.
3 weeks post-draft research

Ronald Jones is the guy in Tampa and you're drafting his backup over him because of hype. Play with fire, you're gonna get burned.

Let's have a really long, informative chat. ⬇️ Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
We first talk about Jones, his production, show some tape, pass protection, and what the coaching staff has said about him for months.

Then we look at Vaughn and everything he is and everything that he's bringing to the table

Make sure you read/watch everything included here.
2018 Rookie year. Yeah, it was disappointing and bad. The old coaching staff takes an electric player and then runs a cookie cutter offense. Round peg-square hole situation

No one is denying that. But a month ago I ran a poll, over 50% of you said you watched less than
2 Buccaneers games last year.

Some quick stats

Last year Jones averaged 4.2 ypc
Barber averaged 3.1 ypc

Jones: 5.1 yards per touch
Barber: 3.4 yards per touch

If you watched at all last year, Jones was miles better than Barber and it wasn't close Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
Film isn't doing it for you? How about these analytics?

Jones is fantastic at creating yards

Derrick Henry was #1 in the league with 1.75 yards created per attempt

Jones followed suit creating 1.72 yards created per attempt

Heres an example Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
Jones was 2nd in the league in broken tackles per attempt with .13 per attempt behind Kamara's .16

He was 4th in attempts per broken tackle.

Don't believe me, check for yourself.

2019 NFL Advanced Rushing | Pro-Football-Reference.com
2019 NFL Advanced Rushing
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... vanced.htm


Had 230 yards taken away because of penalty. 80+ in this game alone ⬇️ Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
No one likes hypotheticals, but if the Bucs clean up the penalties next year (they were THE MOST penalized team last year) Jones will have a ton more yards simply over stuff he cannot control. Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
There's a hatred and notion Rojo can't catch. Again, proof people didn't watch him. But here's a clip of one of the most athletic plays you'll ever see from an NFL player.

Jones was 2nd in the NFL in yards per catch for RBs with 10.1 ypc
31 receptions
1 drop
41 targets Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
The people who claim he can't catch didn't watch him, and then for some reason, ignore the stats.

Better yet, all offseason he's grinded his face off to get even better in the passing game. Heres some of that work

https://twitter.com/coachLukeNeal/statu ... 20672?s=20



https://twitter.com/coachLukeNeal/statu ... 73729?s=20

Since entering the league he has put on 20 pounds of muscle. You could see it last year towards the end of the year when the light really began to come on. He big, fast, and explosive. Here's another fun example of the power he runs with. Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos
Pass protection. Here's an answer. Can he improve? Yes, but could is also be as simple as learning Bruce Arians offense is as hard as learning Chinese and Calculus at the same time.

It takes time to learn an offense. If you've ever been around the game beyond HS
you can attest to this. College offenses are hard. But NFL offenses are insane. Learning blitz pickup in an NFL offense is the hardest thing a RB in the NFL will do.

Its deeper than "oh thats my guy hit him"

There are areas you scan. Zones you feel, bodies flying, etc
Give him year 2 in that offense and grinding this summer and I think he will be fine. It an issue, but you keep developing as NFL players once you get to the league. He knows its a weakness, he will fix it.
The big argument about Ronald Jones is "that's not Bruce Arian's guy" okay well 2 things.

1. He's Jason Licht's guy. THAT MATTERS

2. Everyone loves Bruce Arians for being ungodly blunt. He didn't believe in Jameis and said "if we can win with that QB we can win with any"
Jason Licht AND Bruce Arians all offseason have raved and spoken highly of Ronald Jones.

Here's just 1 article. Can find tons more like it

"We have a lot of faith in Ronald, and in fact, we have more faith in him now that we ever have"

Buccaneers' Ronald Jones: Talked up by team brass
Buccaneers' Ronald Jones: Talked up by team brass
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/footb ... eam-brass/
Ke'Shawn Vaughn. The 76th overall pick in this years draft.

A guy no one was high on. Every team in the league had a 4-5th round grade on.

Someone that many coaches and scouts say is "just a guy"

So, why all the made up love?
Well, no one watched Rojo last year and create narratives and cling to them.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn rushed for over 1000 yards while in the SEC (kind of)

Read this real fast

https://twitter.com/FFBallAllDay/status ... 15009?s=20



Big shoutout to @BallBlastEm for her awesome work! Follow her

https://twitter.com/BallBlastEm/status/ ... 95777?s=20

All the analytics stack up against Vaughn as well.

3rd round RBs rarely hit
5 year college RBs rarely hit

Add those 2 together and yikes.

(Last one was DJ and that's a coincidence) Vaughn is no where near the athlete or prospect. DJ didn't transfer, Vaughn did FWIW
There was an article I read 2 weeks ago by either Pewter Plank or another Bucs source where it talked about "why did the Bucs draft Vaughn in the 3rd when he's a day 3 guy?"

The claim is the Bucs panicked while on the clock because they already traded their 4th rounder away
And they knew they wound not likely get him later? That is more speculation, but where there's smoke there is fire.

(Couldn't relocate article)

They passed on Dobbins, Why? Well, they believe in Ronald Jones. Theyve been saying that all offseason, but needed a backup
They got 1, but with a more premium pick.

Everyone close to that organization believes Vaughn will "compliment Jones IF he can beat out Dare."

He has a mountain to climb and behind an athletic stud with Jones with all the potential in the world.

2020 NFL Draft: Ronald Jones the biggest winner of Day 2
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers passed on J.K. Dobbins in the second. This was an excellent analytical decision for the Bucs and is even better for Ronald Jones.
https://thepewterplank.com/2020/04/24/2 ... ner-day-2/
Amongst the fantasy community, there is some narrative Vaughn is great at pass-blocking because some numbers somewhere say so.

2 things here.

1. Vanderbilt runs a very vanilla cfb offense. Not too many exotic things going on that you can mess up unlike in TB
2. Scouts and people who "know their stuff" see things 100% differently.

Instead of me doing the talking, I'll let others do the talking.

2 lines from credible sources talking about Vaughns poor pass blocking ability

The Draft Network
The Draft Network
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/kesh ... l60u8h9yGy


Buccaneers add Ke'Shawn Vaughn to backfield in Round 3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn out of Vanderbilt in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, 76th overall.The Buccaneers favored Vaughn over a trade for Leonard Fournett…
https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1970669
You see many people hanging their heads on playerprofilers player comp. They are great, but you can't look at numbers then make comps

Go check out Alvin Kamara player Comp. Then comeback and say you have any faith in their credibility in that department

Vaughn Doesn't Fix Bucs' Running Game (And That's Okay)
Pewter Report's Jon Ledyard says Tampa Bay Buccaneers third round pick Ke'Shawn Vaughn doesn't fix the Bucs backfield woes - and that's okay.
https://www.pewterreport.com/vaughn-doe ... hats-okay/
In Conclusion, Jones is the guy. The truth hurts. Ignore the fantasy hype, do your own research, and win championships.
Team 1
2019 Champions
12 Team - 0.5 PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex(WRT). Bench 11, IR 2.

QB: Drew Brees, Minshew, Hurts.
RB: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones, AJ Dillon, Justin Jackson, Bryce Love, Latavius Murray.
WR: Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Julian Edelman, Breshad Perriman, Bryan Edwards.
TE: Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, Adam Trautman.

Picks:
2021: 1st, 3rd.
2022: 1st, 3rd.
2023: 1st ,2nd, 3rd.

Team 2
10 Team - PPR, 4pts Pass TD, 6pts Rec/Rush TD, Return scoring yards/TDs.
Start: 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 4Flex

QB: LJax, Goff, Minshew, Hurts, Rosen.
RB: Chubb, Cook, Dobbins, Hunt, Michel, DFreeman, J Jackson, Boone, J Hill, Love, Scott.
WR: DK, JuJu, Diontae J, Cooks, Crowder, Campbell, Edwards, A Miller, Sims, AB, Laviska, S Miller.
TE: Higbee, OJ Howard, Cook, Gesicki.

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dynastyninja
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby dynastyninja » Fri May 22, 2020 12:04 pm

elvisn wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am
I'm a RoJo fan
Lots of good stuff in that post, appreciate the effort

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Hottoddies
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby Hottoddies » Fri May 22, 2020 3:25 pm

elvisn wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am
I'm a RoJo fan, think he's getting a lot of unfair criticisms. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid player and will produce as a solid RB2 at least. ........


TL,DR: There is a large movement for drafting Vaughn in the 1st round of Dynasty rookie drafts or above Ronald Jones in redraft leagues. My personal analysis shows that Ronald will in fact be the leader of their timeshare (think Aaron Jones - Jamaal Williams type snap counts) and will be their #1 RB. In my opinion, narratives can be manipulated but stats dont lie, and stats show that Ronald isn't trash at all but in fact a capable young back (younger than Vaughn, mind you) who could take on a larger share of work that people have been led to believe.


...........In Conclusion, Jones is the guy. The truth hurts. Ignore the fantasy hype, do your own research, and win championships.
First off, DAMN IT MAN, I'll never get that hour back. Is Jones really worth all that effort? Secondly, I would hardly call this an objective view if you chose to use the pronoun, ''we" when referring to Tampa Bay as opposed to "they".

Jones may have had a bit more pep in his step than Barber and did show some improvement in his game last year, but protecting Brady's a$$ will take on a bit more importance than that of Winston's.

Are people making a mistake in drafting Vaughn in the 1st round? Certainly. No matter who wins this battle of the JAGs, they wouldn't be worth more than a low end RB2 at the most. I imagine it will be a timeshare of some proportion and would think that Brady would just prefer to throw it on goal line situation most of the time.

As for a dynasty investment, no matter what little you can get from either of these guys this year, probably won't be there for you in 2021. In short I think both of us are spending way too much time and effort thinking about this whore subject.
Megan Phelps' 4 rules of dialogue
1) Don't assume bad intent
2) Ask questions
3) Stay calm
4) Make the argument

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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby ericanadian » Fri May 22, 2020 7:38 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:25 pm
elvisn wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am
I'm a RoJo fan, think he's getting a lot of unfair criticisms. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid player and will produce as a solid RB2 at least. ........


TL,DR: There is a large movement for drafting Vaughn in the 1st round of Dynasty rookie drafts or above Ronald Jones in redraft leagues. My personal analysis shows that Ronald will in fact be the leader of their timeshare (think Aaron Jones - Jamaal Williams type snap counts) and will be their #1 RB. In my opinion, narratives can be manipulated but stats dont lie, and stats show that Ronald isn't trash at all but in fact a capable young back (younger than Vaughn, mind you) who could take on a larger share of work that people have been led to believe.


...........In Conclusion, Jones is the guy. The truth hurts. Ignore the fantasy hype, do your own research, and win championships.
First off, DAMN IT MAN, I'll never get that hour back. Is Jones really worth all that effort? Secondly, I would hardly call this an objective view if you chose to use the pronoun, ''we" when referring to Tampa Bay as opposed to "they".

Jones may have had a bit more pep in his step than Barber and did show some improvement in his game last year, but protecting Brady's a$$ will take on a bit more importance than that of Winston's.

Are people making a mistake in drafting Vaughn in the 1st round? Certainly. No matter who wins this battle of the JAGs, they wouldn't be worth more than a low end RB2 at the most. I imagine it will be a timeshare of some proportion and would think that Brady would just prefer to throw it on goal line situation most of the time.

As for a dynasty investment, no matter what little you can get from either of these guys this year, probably won't be there for you in 2021. In short I think both of us are spending way too much time and effort thinking about this whore subject.
Honestly, the pass blocking doesn’t bother me that much. Nearly every running back struggles with it the first year or two and I agree with the idea that I don’t expect Vaughan to come into the league being elite in that facet of the game either.

That said, I went and watched Rojo’s game against Seattle (mainly because he had 18 carries, so it was his high water mark for carries) last year and I still see the problems with vision that were the primary concern with him from the beginning. He just misses holes and there were several examples of him doing this against Seattle. I don’t see that being addressed at all here. We just hear about how he has big yards after contact and a lot of broken tackles. That was TRich’s claim to fame too and it was almost entirely because he had bad vision and ran into defenders he had no business getting near. I also agree with the wall of text that Rojo is effective enough as a dump off option... though that is literally it (he didn’t have a single target with a depth of target greater than six yards.).

Also, the comments about Arians being a straight shooter are ridiculous. Here’s a comment from Arians about Barber going into last season:

"I love him. When you watch him on tape, you don't see his 230 (pounds), you would think he's a 205-pound running back because he's got great feet. Not every back's going to be a home-run hitter, but if he gets those 10-15-yard runs, breaking tackles, power runner, punishing runner, that's kind of how I like to start. When we're building something, that's the kind I like to build around."

Sure, he gave Barber some run, but Barber broke a 40% snap share once the whole year. Arians is pretty easy going with the compliments and him trashing The occasional player doesn’t really change that.
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elvisn
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby elvisn » Sat May 23, 2020 1:49 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:25 pm
elvisn wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am
I'm a RoJo fan, think he's getting a lot of unfair criticisms. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid player and will produce as a solid RB2 at least. ........


TL,DR: There is a large movement for drafting Vaughn in the 1st round of Dynasty rookie drafts or above Ronald Jones in redraft leagues. My personal analysis shows that Ronald will in fact be the leader of their timeshare (think Aaron Jones - Jamaal Williams type snap counts) and will be their #1 RB. In my opinion, narratives can be manipulated but stats dont lie, and stats show that Ronald isn't trash at all but in fact a capable young back (younger than Vaughn, mind you) who could take on a larger share of work that people have been led to believe.


...........In Conclusion, Jones is the guy. The truth hurts. Ignore the fantasy hype, do your own research, and win championships.
First off, DAMN IT MAN, I'll never get that hour back. Is Jones really worth all that effort? Secondly, I would hardly call this an objective view if you chose to use the pronoun, ''we" when referring to Tampa Bay as opposed to "they".

Jones may have had a bit more pep in his step than Barber and did show some improvement in his game last year, but protecting Brady's a$$ will take on a bit more importance than that of Winston's.

Are people making a mistake in drafting Vaughn in the 1st round? Certainly. No matter who wins this battle of the JAGs, they wouldn't be worth more than a low end RB2 at the most. I imagine it will be a timeshare of some proportion and would think that Brady would just prefer to throw it on goal line situation most of the time.

As for a dynasty investment, no matter what little you can get from either of these guys this year, probably won't be there for you in 2021. In short I think both of us are spending way too much time and effort thinking about this whore subject.
Just wanted to say I'm a Patriots fan. The "we" statements are from the person who done the article on bucsnation. I certainly wouldn't waste that much time pulling all the info together. The extent of my effort went into reading the content from the 3 links I provided and then copying that info here.

I agree with your assessment more or less fully. All I want and need from RoJo is to be an RB2 or high end RB3 and I'd be delighted.
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12 Team - 0.5 PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex(WRT). Bench 11, IR 2.

QB: Drew Brees, Minshew, Hurts.
RB: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones, AJ Dillon, Justin Jackson, Bryce Love, Latavius Murray.
WR: Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Julian Edelman, Breshad Perriman, Bryan Edwards.
TE: Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, Adam Trautman.

Picks:
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2022: 1st, 3rd.
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat May 23, 2020 2:02 am

There is no conclusion that Rojo is "the guy". So because that isn't in fact the truth, it doesn't hurt. The fact you say that you want and need Rojo to be a RB2 or high end RB3 tells me you are extremely biased on this view, and are trying will it into existence perhaps, rather than actually believing it.

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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat May 23, 2020 6:29 am

elvisn wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:29 am
In Conclusion, Jones is the guy. The truth hurts. Ignore the fantasy hype, do your own research, and win championships.
Holy crap. The most wpffp of any post ever in the history of FF and it’s used on RoJo?

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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby Ice » Sat May 23, 2020 8:56 am

To all those that own or are buying Rojo; Good Luck.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby HSCTiger » Fri May 29, 2020 10:55 pm

I've been watching a lot of 2019 NFL games on LeaguePass while social distancing, and I love scouting running backs with the coaches film for vision, burst, balance, drive, power, and so on. I also love doing this with college prospects in my draft prep. It's fun, interesting, and I have always enjoyed doing this, even when watching players who struggle in one or more of the areas I'm looking at.

That all changed the day I started watching 2019 Buccaneers film. RoJo's vision is so bad and he has absolutely no patience or concept of setting up his run/blocks, that it was literally making me angry to watch his game tape. If you've ever watched the coaches film, you know it's silent, so every other time I've done this it's a quiet, calm activity, but after what seemed like the 100th time RoJo just full on sprinted directly into the back of an offensive lineman instead of trying to go through the hole to either side of the lineman, I was just audibly saying "What the @#$%" on all of his plays. He ripped off a few plays here and there, but only when, for example, the edge was completely sealed and there were no offensive linemen to slam directly into at full speed near the enormous hole/running lane.

I was so happy to be done watching him when that game ended that I haven't watched another Bucs game since. If RoJo just had a tiny bit of patience or vision, he could probably be good, but he misses every hole, and probably gets all those yards after contact because he just barrels toward the damn line, bounces off of his lineman while a defender gets a hand on him, and only then begins to attempt to play running back if there's a giant, unmistakable hole directly in front of him somewhere.

If Vaughn is in shape for camp, shows he can pass block, and shows an iota of vision, patience, and understanding of the position, the only reason RoJo should see the field is to spell Vaugn at times or because Arians can be weird sometimes with rookies.

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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri May 29, 2020 11:12 pm

HSCTiger wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:55 pm
RoJo's vision is so bad and he has absolutely no patience or concept of setting up his run/blocks, that it was literally making me angry to watch his game tape. If you've ever watched the coaches film, you know it's silent, so every other time I've done this it's a quiet, calm activity, but after what seemed like the 100th time RoJo just full on sprinted directly into the back of an offensive lineman instead of trying to go through the hole to either side of the lineman, I was just audibly saying "What the @#$%" on all of his plays. He ripped off a few plays here and there, but only when, for example, the edge was completely sealed and there were no offensive linemen to slam directly into at full speed near the enormous hole/running lane.

I was so happy to be done watching him when that game ended that I haven't watched another Bucs game since. If RoJo just had a tiny bit of patience or vision, he could probably be good, but he misses every hole, and probably gets all those yards after contact because he just barrels toward the damn line, bounces off of his lineman while a defender gets a hand on him, and only then begins to attempt to play running back if there's a giant, unmistakable hole directly in front of him somewhere.

If Vaughn is in shape for camp, shows he can pass block, and shows an iota of vision, patience, and understanding of the position, the only reason RoJo should see the field is to spell Vaugn at times or because Arians can be weird sometimes with rookies.
As a fellow RoJo hater for 2 years and going on 3, this is the best write-up I've ever read. It's concise and hilarious. I'd like to formally invite you to the club. We meet on Tuesdays.

I wish he would figure it out. I fear he's going to miss a key block and end Tom Brady's career. I'm being negative but... well come on, you saw the tape. :P
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Re: Rojo outlook and value

Postby dynastyninja » Sat May 30, 2020 1:03 pm

Yep, Rojo frustrates me when I watch him if I'm being honest. I believe he is definitely talented, but he's got to figure out some of the nuances. Could produce this year with the opportunity and I thought he improved last year, but I've fallen pretty far from where I used to have him.


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