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Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 7:49 pm
by FantasyFreak
RB6 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 6:32 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 2:18 pm
zeeshan2 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:37 pm Anyone like Devin Duvernay at all?
Not really. Love passing volume offense, and he did nothing until his senior year. Guys like that are usually a low probability of hitting.
I like Duvernay. Good hands and speed and Harbaugh was ecstatic to get him. Just bought him for a ‘21 third.
For that price, yeah. I just don't think he's the steal of the draft.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 8:32 pm
by PR0v3
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Forza_Azzurri wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:13 pm It's gotta be Pittman ... and not even close TBH. Too bad I don't own him anywhere. Hoping Edwards is second best.
Curios to why? I see it as Mims and not even close. I trust Darnold more at this stage compared to Rivers. I think the Colts are going to run a ton. Mims has the clearest path to number 1 targets based on depth charts IMO. I have Pittman at 2 or 3.
Mims seems like one of the least likely to be the steal of the draft to me. He was the 13th WR taken in the NFL draft, but is currently being drafted as like the WR7. People are buying the situation and the measurables, but he is a work in progress and is going to have to earn his snaps. He's a projection and is going to have to develop before he finds himself with an opportunity to feature, but is being drafted like he is already a starter.

I think Shenault, Claypool, Hamler, and Van Jefferson are far more likely to be steals than Mims. Of none of the first round WRs, Shenault seems like the clear value play to me.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 8:37 pm
by AussieMate
PR0v3 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 8:32 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Forza_Azzurri wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:13 pm It's gotta be Pittman ... and not even close TBH. Too bad I don't own him anywhere. Hoping Edwards is second best.
Curios to why? I see it as Mims and not even close. I trust Darnold more at this stage compared to Rivers. I think the Colts are going to run a ton. Mims has the clearest path to number 1 targets based on depth charts IMO. I have Pittman at 2 or 3.
Mims seems like one of the least likely to be the steal of the draft to me. He was the 13th WR taken in the NFL draft, but is currently being drafted as like the WR7. People are buying the situation and the measurables, but he is a work in progress.

I think Shenault, Claypool, Hamler, and Van Jefferson are far more likely to be steals than Mims. Of none first round WRs, Shenault seems like the clear value play to me.
I feel similar to this, Mims was a very popular predraft name by a lot of people and analysts but the NFL told us he's a late 2nd rnd pick. Still good draft capital but people were calling him to be drafted top 30. Although I'm too concerned about Shenaults health to back him.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 8:49 pm
by Jigga94
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Forza_Azzurri wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:13 pm It's gotta be Pittman ... and not even close TBH. Too bad I don't own him anywhere. Hoping Edwards is second best.
Curios to why? I see it as Mims and not even close. I trust Darnold more at this stage compared to Rivers. I think the Colts are going to run a ton. Mims has the clearest path to number 1 targets based on depth charts IMO. I have Pittman at 2 or 3.
The poll says otherwise, just saying. I like Mims but he's behind Pittman and Higgins for me for sure

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 9:15 pm
by FantasyFreak
Jigga94 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 8:49 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:18 pm
Forza_Azzurri wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 7:13 pm It's gotta be Pittman ... and not even close TBH. Too bad I don't own him anywhere. Hoping Edwards is second best.
Curios to why? I see it as Mims and not even close. I trust Darnold more at this stage compared to Rivers. I think the Colts are going to run a ton. Mims has the clearest path to number 1 targets based on depth charts IMO. I have Pittman at 2 or 3.
The poll says otherwise, just saying. I like Mims but he's behind Pittman and Higgins for me for sure
Yeah, I'm asking for an explanation. I can see the poll. Guy says not even close and I don't see why, and I was super high on Pittman pre draft.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 9:38 pm
by zeeshan2
Higgins, Viska, and Edwards for me. The Edwards situation feels like the Ravens a couple of year ago when they took Hurst in the first and Andrews later and Andrews ended up their TE1 and he's analytically sound

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 10:00 pm
by Straycatz2
Anyone use breakout finder by rotounderworld?
Their ranking of previous years look pretty good in where most are hits. Anyone know what they use to determine their breakout rating?

2020
1) Lamb
2) Shenault
3) Edwards
4) Higgins
5) Reagor
....
9) Jeudy

2019
1) Metcalf
2) Brown
3) Deebo
4) McLaurin
5) Harry

2018
1) Kirk
2) Moore
3) Chark
4) Sutton
5) Gallup

2017
1) Golladay
2) Juju
3) Godwin
4) Ross
5) Williams

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 10:39 pm
by wickerkat1212
Pittman, Mim, Higgins in that order.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 10:50 pm
by FantasyFreak
Straycatz2 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 10:00 pm Anyone use breakout finder by rotounderworld?
Their ranking of previous years look pretty good in where most are hits. Anyone know what they use to determine their breakout rating?

2020
1) Lamb
2) Shenault
3) Edwards
4) Higgins
5) Reagor
....
9) Jeudy

2019
1) Metcalf
2) Brown
3) Deebo
4) McLaurin
5) Harry

2018
1) Kirk
2) Moore
3) Chark
4) Sutton
5) Gallup

2017
1) Golladay
2) Juju
3) Godwin
4) Ross
5) Williams
They've spent countless hours with a lot of people to make sure you don't have access to that but can buy it for cheap. Even if you did have access to it, it's probably worth the few bucks a month over having to do the work required to come up with the same result.

I think Sheanult is their Ross/Harry year 1, this year.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 11:56 am
by Orenthal Shames
Edwards are Hamler seem like huge values at their current price.

Hamler is a long game play, but with his draft capital and profile, I'll take a shot on him in the 30's all day. He's my favorite late round target as of now.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 1:28 pm
by Jigga94
Orenthal Shames wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 11:56 am Edwards are Hamler seem like huge values at their current price.

Hamler is a long game play, but with his draft capital and profile, I'll take a shot on him in the 30's all day. He's my favorite late round target as of now.
I wasn't all that impressed with Hamler really, but part of that was me thinking he would be getting picked up in the 20ish range. I about wrote him off until I realized everyone else has basically done the same. He's a sparkplug on the field for sure

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 3:19 pm
by Straycatz2
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 10:50 pm I think Sheanult is their Ross/Harry year 1, this year.
That's ok as long as Sheanult doesn't cost the same as Ross/Harry during their rookie year. Going anywhere from late 2nd to 3rd, hes as good flier as anyone in that range would be.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 3:46 pm
by djeternal2
Straycatz2 wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 3:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 10:50 pm I think Sheanult is their Ross/Harry year 1, this year.
That's ok as long as Sheanult doesn't cost the same as Ross/Harry during their rookie year. Going anywhere from late 2nd to 3rd, hes as good flier as anyone in that range would be.
Per Mizelle's data Shenault is coming off the board as the 15th rookie. I'd be surprised if he's routinely lasting to late 2nd or even the 3rd.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 3:51 pm
by bjd5211
djeternal2 wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 3:46 pm
Straycatz2 wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 3:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 10:50 pm I think Sheanult is their Ross/Harry year 1, this year.
That's ok as long as Sheanult doesn't cost the same as Ross/Harry during their rookie year. Going anywhere from late 2nd to 3rd, hes as good flier as anyone in that range would be.
Per Mizelle's data Shenault is coming off the board as the 15th rookie. I'd be surprised if he's routinely lasting to late 2nd or even the 3rd.
He's gone early-mid 2 in all 4 of my drafts so far, I think latest was 17th overall and that was a SF league with 3 QBs being taken ahead of him.

Re: Which Non-1st Round WR Will Be The Steal of the 2020 Draft?

Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 10:03 pm
by Straycatz2
djeternal2 wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 3:46 pm
Straycatz2 wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 3:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 10:50 pm I think Sheanult is their Ross/Harry year 1, this year.
That's ok as long as Sheanult doesn't cost the same as Ross/Harry during their rookie year. Going anywhere from late 2nd to 3rd, hes as good flier as anyone in that range would be.
Per Mizelle's data Shenault is coming off the board as the 15th rookie. I'd be surprised if he's routinely lasting to late 2nd or even the 3rd.
Went 3.03 in my league. Just depends on where ppl start taking the 2nd/3rd tier RBs and TEs, many draft for need. Hamler went before Sheanult as well. But I've seen late 2nd in quite a few drafts.

But the point is even mid 2nd is ok gamble compared to where Harry and Ross went.