New Heights of Rookie Fever
- dynastyninja
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 4174
- Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:17 pm
New Heights of Rookie Fever
Rookies are always overvalued this time of the year, but I think we have hit a whole new level with this class. The 2020 class had a lot of hype, and it looks like the hype was reasonable. This is a darn good class on paper. All that said, I think it's probably gone too far. I'm only in one league, so I don't have a large sample size, but the rookie picks are pure gold in that one. It's nearly impossible to trade an over-25 asset for a first. I think I've sent 100+ offers for first rounders (yes I have a problem). No luck.
I've never seen picks worth as much as they are this year, and I am seeing basically the same thing on the forums.
Rookie picks miss. I usually operate under the assumption that 50% of first rounders are going to bust. Every year, people seem to forget that. It seems like this year, every first rounder is expected to pan out. Even in the 2nd round, I think people are assuming they will be getting surefire prospects guaranteed to produce for 5+ years.
This year, you could probably take an empty team, give it 2-3 first rounders to trade (doesn't even have to be the 1.01-1.03) and field a competitive roster of under-30 vets.
So this is my cautionary tale. See what current players you'd be able to get for one of your picks. Remove the risk and get proven assets instead.
I've never seen picks worth as much as they are this year, and I am seeing basically the same thing on the forums.
Rookie picks miss. I usually operate under the assumption that 50% of first rounders are going to bust. Every year, people seem to forget that. It seems like this year, every first rounder is expected to pan out. Even in the 2nd round, I think people are assuming they will be getting surefire prospects guaranteed to produce for 5+ years.
This year, you could probably take an empty team, give it 2-3 first rounders to trade (doesn't even have to be the 1.01-1.03) and field a competitive roster of under-30 vets.
So this is my cautionary tale. See what current players you'd be able to get for one of your picks. Remove the risk and get proven assets instead.
-
- Captain
- Posts: 992
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:25 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
2020, 2021, 2022 Champion!
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Jacobs
WR: Chase, Jefferson, AJB, Lamb, DJM, Olave, Dotson, Mike Evans
TE: Hock, Dulcich, Chig, Fant, Jonnu, Hurst, Everett
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
1.01, 1.03
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Jacobs
WR: Chase, Jefferson, AJB, Lamb, DJM, Olave, Dotson, Mike Evans
TE: Hock, Dulcich, Chig, Fant, Jonnu, Hurst, Everett
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
1.01, 1.03
- dynastyninja
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 4174
- Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:17 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
Gota pay to play!
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR
2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs
QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.
Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF
2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
Picks
2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh
2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs
QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.
Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF
2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
Picks
2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
You aren’t removing risk by trading picks for vets. Vets bust every year, too. See: every redraft league ever.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14266
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
I agree that the picks are overinflated in value and it's important to remember that many rookie picks peak in value until the pick is actually made. However, the upside of this class is tantalizing and it could end up being one of those classes that ushers in a new guard for fantasy football.
Also, while trading picks for vets is a solid strategy, it doesn't come without risk. You could trade 1.05 for a 27-year-old WR, who continues to regress in value and never gives you your worth. There's risk on both sides. Imagine if you traded 1.05 for Devonta Freeman three years ago, or traded 1.03 for Antonio Brown last year, or traded 1.04 for Randall Cobb after his 91/1287/12 season as a 24-year-old
Also, while trading picks for vets is a solid strategy, it doesn't come without risk. You could trade 1.05 for a 27-year-old WR, who continues to regress in value and never gives you your worth. There's risk on both sides. Imagine if you traded 1.05 for Devonta Freeman three years ago, or traded 1.03 for Antonio Brown last year, or traded 1.04 for Randall Cobb after his 91/1287/12 season as a 24-year-old
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Mon May 04, 2020 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Captain
- Posts: 992
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:25 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
I'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.dynastyninja wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 amIt's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
2020, 2021, 2022 Champion!
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Jacobs
WR: Chase, Jefferson, AJB, Lamb, DJM, Olave, Dotson, Mike Evans
TE: Hock, Dulcich, Chig, Fant, Jonnu, Hurst, Everett
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
1.01, 1.03
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Brady, Stafford
RB: Barkley, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Jacobs
WR: Chase, Jefferson, AJB, Lamb, DJM, Olave, Dotson, Mike Evans
TE: Hock, Dulcich, Chig, Fant, Jonnu, Hurst, Everett
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
1.01, 1.03
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
In 2017 I traded 1.03 (would have taken Mixon) for Arob... Imagine having paid for JuJu before last season... it doesnt always workout trading Picks for vets, but I've had better success doing it I suppose. My rookie drafts have never gone well, best pick I can recall is Hockenson at 8th last year...Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am I agree that the picks are overinflated in value and it's important to remember that many rookie picks peak in value until the pick is actually made. However, the upside of this class is tantalizing and it could end up being one of those classes that ushers in a new guard for fantasy football.
Also, while trading picks for vets is a solid strategy, it doesn't come without risk. You could trade 1.05 for a 27-year-old WR, who continues to regress in value and never gives you your worth. There's risk on both sides. Imagine if you traded 1.05 for Devonta Freeman three years ago, or traded 1.03 for Antonio Brown last year, or traded 1.04 for Randall Cobb after his 91/1287/12 season as a 24-year-old
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
-
- Captain
- Posts: 775
- Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:14 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
This guy in my league who is a contender and was a playoff team last year, received an offer of Davante Adams for his 1.3 (he acquired the 1.3 via trade). As a team that was QB/WR needy, I thought it was a bit insane he passed and drafted Taylor (RB) instead.
I guess he thinks he went BPA, but if he ranks Taylor over Adams then idk what to think lol.
I guess he thinks he went BPA, but if he ranks Taylor over Adams then idk what to think lol.
12 TEAM SUPERFLEX, TE Premium, 25 man rosters
QB - | Rodgers | Herbert | Mills
RB - CMC | Chubb | Dobbins | Keaontay Ingram
WR - McLaurin | Deebo | Waddle | Gabriel Davis | Elijah Moore | Mooney | C Ridley | Jameson Williams | Pickens | Alec Pierce | Wan'dale Robinson | Justyn Ross | B Edwards
TE - M Andrews | Friermuth
2023 Picks: 1st round(2), 2nd round(2), 3rd round (2)
QB - | Rodgers | Herbert | Mills
RB - CMC | Chubb | Dobbins | Keaontay Ingram
WR - McLaurin | Deebo | Waddle | Gabriel Davis | Elijah Moore | Mooney | C Ridley | Jameson Williams | Pickens | Alec Pierce | Wan'dale Robinson | Justyn Ross | B Edwards
TE - M Andrews | Friermuth
2023 Picks: 1st round(2), 2nd round(2), 3rd round (2)
- dynastyninja
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 4174
- Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:17 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
I've been trying to turn a WR into an RB, which has proved impossible. Most of these trades I'd never do in a vacuum, but my roster construction is such that I'd like to shift some production from WR to RB. Some notable offers I've made:TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 amI'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.dynastyninja wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 amIt's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
I'm experiencing the same thing. For the first time ever in one of my leagues, not a single trade happened in the first round, despite every single person (not me though) asking for a trade back. Tons of trade talks, tons of offers, not a single deal was made.
I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.
It's bananas man.
I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.
It's bananas man.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
The only one I would do is OBJ for 1.05.dynastyninja wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:51 amI've been trying to turn a WR into an RB, which has proved impossible. Most of these trades I'd never do in a vacuum, but my roster construction is such that I'd like to shift some production from WR to RB. Some notable offers I've made:TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 amI'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.dynastyninja wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 am
It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.
OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02
Thielen is nice, but not for a mid first for a 29 year old on a down season
1.01 and 1.02 are almost sure fire locks for stud RB production. I know thats what a lot of people thought about TRich but its not like OBJ/Arob come with guarantees of top tier production longer than JT or CEH, and at least in the league I am in RBs reign supreme.
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
-
- All Pro
- Posts: 1762
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:36 am
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
OBJ for 1.05 should've been accepted by that owner, but the rest I can see an argument for keeping the pick. Nobody is putting any value on Conner right now except his owners, and Thielen is probably being viewed in the late 1st/early 2nd range (to an open-minded owner; he'll be 30 when the season starts and had a down year last year).
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
QB: L Jackson, Tagovailoa, Rodgers, Pickett, Tannehill
RB: Swift, Pacheco, Sanders, Hubbard, Spears, Dillon, Herbert, McLaughlin, Chandler, Dowdle
WR: DeVonta, Waddle, Aiyuk, Nacua, McLaurin, Hopkins, M Williams, Mingo, Wan’Dale, Hyatt
TE: Kelce, Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
Ive had success with trading for picks in my superflexdlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:56 am I'm experiencing the same thing. For the first time ever in one of my leagues, not a single trade happened in the first round, despite every single person (not me though) asking for a trade back. Tons of trade talks, tons of offers, not a single deal was made.
I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.
It's bananas man.
I acquired the 2.01 in a 10 team league for Jimmy G
then traded Chubb and pick #13 for 1.03 and DJ chark
Yea it screwed my RBs hard lol but ill deal with that later. I wanted to get in to have my choice of Dobbs, Burrow, or Jeudy
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR
2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs
QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.
Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF
2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
Picks
2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh
2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs
QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.
Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF
2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
Picks
2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14266
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever
OBJ for 1.05 is the only offer that feels like a no-brainer. Even then, you could easily make the case that the RB or WR available at 1.05 will have significantly more value than OBJ in a few years.dynastyninja wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:51 am OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02
Everything else, I would side with the picks. Thielen turns 30 in August and is coming off an injury plagued year. He's probably worth a late 1st. Conner's value has regressed drastically. A-Rob is probably close to 1.04 than 1.02.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], BradyT, Google [Bot] and 116 guests