New Heights of Rookie Fever

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dynastyninja
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New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby dynastyninja » Mon May 04, 2020 7:35 am

Rookies are always overvalued this time of the year, but I think we have hit a whole new level with this class. The 2020 class had a lot of hype, and it looks like the hype was reasonable. This is a darn good class on paper. All that said, I think it's probably gone too far. I'm only in one league, so I don't have a large sample size, but the rookie picks are pure gold in that one. It's nearly impossible to trade an over-25 asset for a first. I think I've sent 100+ offers for first rounders (yes I have a problem). No luck.

I've never seen picks worth as much as they are this year, and I am seeing basically the same thing on the forums.

Rookie picks miss. I usually operate under the assumption that 50% of first rounders are going to bust. Every year, people seem to forget that. It seems like this year, every first rounder is expected to pan out. Even in the 2nd round, I think people are assuming they will be getting surefire prospects guaranteed to produce for 5+ years.

This year, you could probably take an empty team, give it 2-3 first rounders to trade (doesn't even have to be the 1.01-1.03) and field a competitive roster of under-30 vets.

So this is my cautionary tale. See what current players you'd be able to get for one of your picks. Remove the risk and get proven assets instead.

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby TimeWillTell » Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am

So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
2020 Champion!
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Jones
RB: Barkley, JRob, CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Penny
WR: AJB, Jefferson, Evans, DJM, Chark, Lamb, Tee Higgins, Mims, Shenault, Jeudy, Ruggs, P. Williams, Edwards, Callaway
TE: Andrews, Jonnu, Hock, Hurst
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
No 2021 picks, 2022 2nd (not mine), all 2023 picks

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dynastyninja
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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby dynastyninja » Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 am

TimeWillTell wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am
So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby joeya2001 » Mon May 04, 2020 8:03 am

Gota pay to play!
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs

QB- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson,
RB- David Johnson,Jeff Wilson Damian Harris, Lenard Forunette, AJ Dillion, Miles Gaskin,
WR- Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley,DJ Chark, Michael Pittman
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith,

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

2020 3rd place Year 1

QB Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
RB Zeke, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, Cohen, AJ Dillon
WR Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, D.J. Chark Tee Higgins, Marvin Jones,
TE Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert,

“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby PR0v3 » Mon May 04, 2020 8:12 am

You aren’t removing risk by trading picks for vets. Vets bust every year, too. See: every redraft league ever.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Jimmy G, Trubisky, Dalton, Mullens
RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, C. Davis, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, VJeff
TE: Andrews, Gesicki
K: Myers
2021 picks: 2, 3, 4

Cameron Giles
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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am

I agree that the picks are overinflated in value and it's important to remember that many rookie picks peak in value until the pick is actually made. However, the upside of this class is tantalizing and it could end up being one of those classes that ushers in a new guard for fantasy football.

Also, while trading picks for vets is a solid strategy, it doesn't come without risk. You could trade 1.05 for a 27-year-old WR, who continues to regress in value and never gives you your worth. There's risk on both sides. Imagine if you traded 1.05 for Devonta Freeman three years ago, or traded 1.03 for Antonio Brown last year, or traded 1.04 for Randall Cobb after his 91/1287/12 season as a 24-year-old
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Mon May 04, 2020 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby TimeWillTell » Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 am
TimeWillTell wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am
So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.
I'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.
2020 Champion!
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Jones
RB: Barkley, JRob, CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Penny
WR: AJB, Jefferson, Evans, DJM, Chark, Lamb, Tee Higgins, Mims, Shenault, Jeudy, Ruggs, P. Williams, Edwards, Callaway
TE: Andrews, Jonnu, Hock, Hurst
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
No 2021 picks, 2022 2nd (not mine), all 2023 picks

nathanq42
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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby nathanq42 » Mon May 04, 2020 8:31 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am
I agree that the picks are overinflated in value and it's important to remember that many rookie picks peak in value until the pick is actually made. However, the upside of this class is tantalizing and it could end up being one of those classes that ushers in a new guard for fantasy football.

Also, while trading picks for vets is a solid strategy, it doesn't come without risk. You could trade 1.05 for a 27-year-old WR, who continues to regress in value and never gives you your worth. There's risk on both sides. Imagine if you traded 1.05 for Devonta Freeman three years ago, or traded 1.03 for Antonio Brown last year, or traded 1.04 for Randall Cobb after his 91/1287/12 season as a 24-year-old
In 2017 I traded 1.03 (would have taken Mixon) for Arob... Imagine having paid for JuJu before last season... it doesnt always workout trading Picks for vets, but I've had better success doing it I suppose. My rookie drafts have never gone well, best pick I can recall is Hockenson at 8th last year...
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
+1 Flex

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby Dirty Mike&the Boys » Mon May 04, 2020 8:39 am

This guy in my league who is a contender and was a playoff team last year, received an offer of Davante Adams for his 1.3 (he acquired the 1.3 via trade). As a team that was QB/WR needy, I thought it was a bit insane he passed and drafted Taylor (RB) instead.

I guess he thinks he went BPA, but if he ranks Taylor over Adams then idk what to think lol.
12 TEAM SUPERFLEX est. 2018 | 25 Man Rosters
QB - | Rodgers | Herbert | Darnold
RB - CMC | Chubb | Dobbins | Ahmed
WR - C Ridley | McLaurin | Deebo | B Edwards | Gabriel Davis | Tyler Johnson | David Moore | Mooney | Guyton
TE - M Andrews | Hockenson | Sample
2021 Picks: 1.10, 1.11, 2.4, 2.12, 3.10
2020 Picks: 1st, three 2nd's, 3rd

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby dynastyninja » Mon May 04, 2020 8:51 am

TimeWillTell wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am
dynastyninja wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 am
TimeWillTell wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:40 am
So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.
It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.
I'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.
I've been trying to turn a WR into an RB, which has proved impossible. Most of these trades I'd never do in a vacuum, but my roster construction is such that I'd like to shift some production from WR to RB. Some notable offers I've made:

OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon May 04, 2020 8:56 am

I'm experiencing the same thing. For the first time ever in one of my leagues, not a single trade happened in the first round, despite every single person (not me though) asking for a trade back. Tons of trade talks, tons of offers, not a single deal was made.

I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.

It's bananas man.
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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby nathanq42 » Mon May 04, 2020 8:59 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:51 am
TimeWillTell wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:15 am
dynastyninja wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 7:52 am


It's a darn good class. I'd love to get in, but not with what it costs.
I'm legitimately curious to know what the cost is in your league. I have a bunch of picks but our draft isn't until July 1 and our league hasn't really started sending offers yet.
I've been trying to turn a WR into an RB, which has proved impossible. Most of these trades I'd never do in a vacuum, but my roster construction is such that I'd like to shift some production from WR to RB. Some notable offers I've made:

OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02
The only one I would do is OBJ for 1.05.
Thielen is nice, but not for a mid first for a 29 year old on a down season
1.01 and 1.02 are almost sure fire locks for stud RB production. I know thats what a lot of people thought about TRich but its not like OBJ/Arob come with guarantees of top tier production longer than JT or CEH, and at least in the league I am in RBs reign supreme.
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
+1 Flex

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby Ruggenater » Mon May 04, 2020 8:59 am

OBJ for 1.05 should've been accepted by that owner, but the rest I can see an argument for keeping the pick. Nobody is putting any value on Conner right now except his owners, and Thielen is probably being viewed in the late 1st/early 2nd range (to an open-minded owner; he'll be 30 when the season starts and had a down year last year).
12 Team Superflex - PPR, 0.25 PPC - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Superflex
QB: L Jackson, Rodgers, Tannehill, Love, Dalton, Haskins
RB: Dobbins, Montgomery, Michel, Dillon, Mattison, Bernard
WR: Hopkins, Evans, A Robinson, Lockett, Reagor, McLaurin, Higgins, Watkins, Perriman, Meyers, Coutee
TE: Kelce, Gesicki, J Smith, I Smith

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby joeya2001 » Mon May 04, 2020 9:00 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:56 am
I'm experiencing the same thing. For the first time ever in one of my leagues, not a single trade happened in the first round, despite every single person (not me though) asking for a trade back. Tons of trade talks, tons of offers, not a single deal was made.

I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.

It's bananas man.
Ive had success with trading for picks in my superflex

I acquired the 2.01 in a 10 team league for Jimmy G

then traded Chubb and pick #13 for 1.03 and DJ chark

Yea it screwed my RBs hard lol but ill deal with that later. I wanted to get in to have my choice of Dobbs, Burrow, or Jeudy
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs

QB- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson,
RB- David Johnson,Jeff Wilson Damian Harris, Lenard Forunette, AJ Dillion, Miles Gaskin,
WR- Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley,DJ Chark, Michael Pittman
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith,

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

2020 3rd place Year 1

QB Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts
RB Zeke, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, Cohen, AJ Dillon
WR Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, D.J. Chark Tee Higgins, Marvin Jones,
TE Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert,

“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh

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Re: New Heights of Rookie Fever

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 04, 2020 9:13 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 8:51 am
OBJ for 1.05
Thielen for 1.06
OBJ/Russ/Cohen for 1.01
ARob/Conner for 1.02
OBJ/Conner for 1.02
OBJ for 1.05 is the only offer that feels like a no-brainer. Even then, you could easily make the case that the RB or WR available at 1.05 will have significantly more value than OBJ in a few years.

Everything else, I would side with the picks. Thielen turns 30 in August and is coming off an injury plagued year. He's probably worth a late 1st. Conner's value has regressed drastically. A-Rob is probably close to 1.04 than 1.02.


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