New Heights of Rookie Fever

[Jfever]

Antonio Gibson. I have a strong feeling about this kid. I see the “it” factor in him and think Rivera will make a star out of him. I realize he is raw but damn, he’s dripping with high ceiling potential. I see David Johnson like potential. And in the 3rd round, it’s worth the upside. As - I don’t see Guice as a lock to retain health and once this kid gets on the field, it’ll be tough to keep him off. His receiving chops are real. Speed, size, balance, strength, body awareness, field awareness, nose for the stripe, vision, run after catch - all very good. He was drafted as a rb and, that matters. I was willing to pay Sony for his 3.01 and a future 3rd. Caveat - I also own James White, so, to me owning two NE rb was nothing but frustrating. Anyway, the first owner at the 3.01 that I offered the Sony pic, took H.Hurst (he was a free agent), then, same offer to the owner of the 3.02, & this owner took McFarland, then another owner took Claypool, and then the drafter of Macfarland, with his next pick @ 3.04 took Eno Benjamin. Guess what....? Gibson fell to me anyway at 3.07. Now I’m quite happy my offers got declined.

Earlier,With the offers of Cook that I sent out around the 2.04, it was because Ruggs was still out there. My offers got declined, that owner took Aiyuk, then of course the next guy took Ruggs at 2.05, then it went Mims, then I took bpa in my rankings with Dillon at 2.07.

So far for me. 1.07 - Cedee Lamb, 2.07 - AJ Dillon, 3.07 - Antonio Gibson.

[Sriracha]

Crazy that Gibson fell that far; he hasnt gotten past the 2.04 in any of my drafts which is a bit too early for me— pretty unfortunate since I love his upside and was way higher than consensus on him pre NFL draft...

[Jfever]

2.04 is prob too rich if we are going to be honest with ourselves, considering the upside wrs in that range. I think late 2nd / early 3rd is reasonable. But, if that is what’s happening... oh well. If some one reaches for him, it’s higher risk baked into the cost. His ceiling I think remains high but it isn’t as though there aren't questions.

[dustyroads]

To add some context and at least another data point to this conversation for those who haven't drafted yet, about 3 hours prior to my draft I got an offer for 1.06 and accepted. I sent 1.06 and 3.06 for 2.04 and 2021 1st and 2nd round picks. Lot of parity in our league, but I'd project them to be mid round picks for 2021.

I was out of 2021 1st, so it was appealing to me specifically to get back into that round. I also already owned 1.03, 2.03, 2.06, and 2.11 in our draft, so I secured Dobbins at 1.03 and was looking to take Jeudy at 1.06 (which is who the other guy took) and was able to secure Bryan Edwards at 2.04, while I was probably going to reach for a guy at 3.06 didn't like most players in that range. He took Hamler there, I would have reached for AGG.

So altogether I'd say I traded Jeudy and AGG for Edwards and a mid 2021 1st and mid 2021 2nd. The picks aren't unattainable, but are less likely to be acquired right now with aging vets or low ceiling players.

[Kcarr]

I don't know about OP, but I offered Julio Jones for 2 1sts, 1.3 and 1.7, and was told to go bleep myself.
It's bad.

No one was willing to pay that for Julio last year or 2 years ago, obviously he won't go for that this year. Julio's value has been depressed for years.

Its sad because hes probably still has 2-4 years of elite production. I bought him during a playoff run, cost me 2020 1st 2021 1st, I came in second, but none the less I'm still glad to have him.

So you just bought during the peak of player value, a playoff run, for 2 late 1sts, one this year and one bit until next year. Now, at the peak of pick value right before the draft, you are surprise you cant trade for an early and a mid 1st both this year? If you were still holding those 2 picks would it be a sign of "rookie fever" that you couldn't trade them straight up for 2 higher picks?

[MattDeezy]

Back in early March I gave up 1.08+1.09 in SF for Tyreek Hill.

[Vcize]

The irony of this thread is that everything the OP claims about people's views on rookies is 10x as true in his misguided views on vets.

The thing people always overlook when bashing rookie hit rate is that the hit rate on vets once you get beyond the top 25 or so players overall is abyssmal. And you don't even have to go far down the list of startup ADP to get to the point where busts make up 80ish percent of the round (4th-6th round startup ADP already hits that).

He mentions fielding a playoff team with guys in the 100-200 ADP range which, sure, with hindsight and cherry picking you could do that with literally any range. But in reality, it's not so easy. For instance forget going all the way down to 200, here is ADP 100-120 from last year.

Keke Coutee
Dede Westbrook
Ronald Jones
Dallas Goedert
Marquez Valdez Scantling
Anthony Miller
Vance McDonald
Jordan Howard
Jerrick McKinnon
Golden Tate
Latavius Murray
Matt Ryan
D'Onta Foreman
Cam Newton
Geronimo Allison
DeSean Hamilton
Jared Goff
Chris Herndon
Jaylen Samuels
Nyheim Hines

I mean, it's junk. And that's from ONE year ago. Go back 3 years ago and you'll find 5x as many guys that are out of the league entirely as you will guys that are still starting for fantasy teams.

Here is 100-110 three years ago, just for fun.

DeSean Jackson
Theo Riddick
Doug Martin
Jeremy Maclin
Eric Ebron
Pierre Garcon
Brandon Marshall
Eric Decker
Kyle Rudolph
Kenneth Dixon

GROSS.

And like I said, you really don't have to go very far down ADP for things to start unraveling. Here last year's 5th round startup ADP as of July 2019.

Damien Williams
Derrius Guice
Sony Michel
Mike Williams
Andrew Luck
Sammy Watkins
Corey Davis
Devonta Freeman
Tyler Lockett
Tyler Boyd
Jarvis Landry

It's hard to get a good comparison but in a startup draft most people consider a future 1st rookie pick to be worth a 6th round startup pick. So let's compare last year's twelve 1st round rookies with last years 12 sixth round startup veterans.

Vets: Penny, ARob, Pettis, Engram, Lindsay, Edelman, Kirk, Cohen, H Henry, Hunt, Fuller
Rookies: Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders, Harry, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Deebo, Campbell, M Brown, Hockenson, Fant, JJAW

I'll take a random guy from that rookie list over a random guy from that vet list any day of the week. And remember, that's in a rookie class that everyone was trying to trade out of because they considered it weak.

Vets bust too. Frequently. Beyond the top 25 or so overall players, very very very very frequently.

[dynastyninja]

The irony of this thread is that everything the OP claims about people's views on rookies is 10x as true in his misguided views on vets.

The thing people always overlook when bashing rookie hit rate is that the hit rate on vets once you get beyond the top 25 or so players overall is abyssmal. And you don't even have to go far down the list of startup ADP to get to the point where busts make up 80ish percent of the round (4th-6th round startup ADP already hits that).

He mentions fielding a playoff team with guys in the 100-200 ADP range which, sure, with hindsight and cherry picking you could do that with literally any range. But in reality, it's not so easy. For instance forget going all the way down to 200, here is ADP 100-120 from last year.

Keke Coutee
Dede Westbrook
Ronald Jones
Dallas Goedert
Marquez Valdez Scantling
Anthony Miller
Vance McDonald
Jordan Howard
Jerrick McKinnon
Golden Tate
Latavius Murray
Matt Ryan
D'Onta Foreman
Cam Newton
Geronimo Allison
DeSean Hamilton
Jared Goff
Chris Herndon
Jaylen Samuels
Nyheim Hines

I mean, it's junk. And that's from ONE year ago. Go back 3 years ago and you'll find 5x as many guys that are out of the league entirely as you will guys that are still starting for fantasy teams.

Here is 100-110 three years ago, just for fun.

DeSean Jackson
Theo Riddick
Doug Martin
Jeremy Maclin
Eric Ebron
Pierre Garcon
Brandon Marshall
Eric Decker
Kyle Rudolph
Kenneth Dixon

GROSS.

And like I said, you really don't have to go very far down ADP for things to start unraveling. Here last year's 5th round startup ADP as of July 2019.

Damien Williams
Derrius Guice
Sony Michel
Mike Williams
Andrew Luck
Sammy Watkins
Corey Davis
Devonta Freeman
Tyler Lockett
Tyler Boyd
Jarvis Landry

It's hard to get a good comparison but in a startup draft most people consider a future 1st rookie pick to be worth a 6th round startup pick. So let's compare last year's twelve 1st round rookies with last years 12 sixth round startup veterans.

Vets: Penny, ARob, Pettis, Engram, Lindsay, Edelman, Kirk, Cohen, H Henry, Hunt, Fuller
Rookies: Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders, Harry, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Deebo, Campbell, M Brown, Hockenson, Fant, JJAW

I'll take a random guy from that rookie list over a random guy from that vet list any day of the week. And remember, that's in a rookie class that everyone was trying to trade out of because they considered it weak.

Vets bust too. Frequently. Beyond the top 25 or so overall players, very very very very frequently.

I am high on this class. I felt that the value of rookie picks exceeded the likely return of the selected players. That whole message got lost when I mistakenly brought my league into it.

The 100-200 ADP thing is a fun exercise. Seems like you may be taking it a little too seriously. Here's a roster, though, using mizelle's ADP.

QB: Rodgers/Wentz
RB: Ingram/Rojo/KJ/Cohen/White/Sony/Lindsay
WR: Marvin Jones/Edelman/John Brown/Bryan Edwards/Claypool/Tate
TE: Higbee/Gronk/Hurst

Could sneak in as a wild card, though I wouldn't bet on it. I wish I had included 90-100. That would've been a much better looking roster.

[Sriracha]

This guy in my league who is a contender and was a playoff team last year, received an offer of Davante Adams for his 1.3 (he acquired the 1.3 via trade). As a team that was QB/WR needy, I thought it was a bit insane he passed and drafted Taylor (RB) instead.

I guess he thinks he went BPA, but if he ranks Taylor over Adams then idk what to think lol.

JTs ADP right now is 16 overall in startups and has been creeping up; wouldn't be that unusual if he values him over Adams.

I'd take him over Adams as well; but that's has more to do with the way I value the RB position vs the WR position.

[ItsHandsomeDave]

Back in early March I gave up 1.08+1.09 in SF for Tyreek Hill.

Lol so you lost your mind in early March then.

[MattDeezy]

Back in early March I gave up 1.08+1.09 in SF for Tyreek Hill.

Lol so you lost your mind in early March then.

Interesting take.

[problemsolver]

I'm not 100% sure this fits, maybe some kind of anti specific rookie fever, where a rookie gets dinged slightly in the predraft process and falls to unexplainable depths.

Recent 12 team idp draft.

3.08 -Albert O - Ok. Not my choice for the first TE off the board. But I can see it. He certainly looks the part. And you can't teach 4.5 at 6'5 and 265.

4.10 - Hayden Hurst - Falcons gave up a second for him. Probably not any less physically talented than Hooper. At the end if the 4th seems like good value. And I'm not just saying that because it was my pick.

4.12 - Gronk - He is Gronk. I don't blame anyone for shooting their shot at him, especially the defending champ with the loaded roster.

5.06 - Adam Trautman - Extremely prolific in college. Reminds me a little if Mark Andrews. Saints offense made someone named Dan Arnold (who I'm not completely convinced actually exists) fantasy relevant at TE for a minute. I've seen him be the first TE off the board in a couple drafts so getting him here is some pretty brilliant draft strategy. (Full disclosure: This was my pick also)

5.07 - Devin Asiasi - Patriots TE. Wide open depth chart. Zero production from the position last year. Plus that his name is fun to say. Pick Grade: B-

6.05 - Chris Herndon - Ok. Showed some promise in an ascending offense.... He said while failing to keep a straight face.

7.08 - Dan Arnold - Wait. What? HE IS REAL!!! AND HE IS SPECTACULAR!!!

8.04 - Harrison Bryant - The third TE on the Browns. Always a fantasy pot of gold.

8.09 - Thad Moss - Can you imagine how unathletic his mom must be to water down that gene pool to the point that Randy Moss' son is basically a blocking TE and described by most draftniks as "surprisingly unathletic"?

8.11 - Cole Kmet. Second to the last pick in the draft. I get it. Trubisky. Nagy. Bears. I get it. But Damn. That's just insanity. And yeah IDPs and veteran FA were in the draft. So all the offensive rookies got pushed down. But by my count Kmet was the 64th offensive player off the board, which would leave him borderline undrafted in a standard 12 team 5 round offense only draft.

And it still doesn't explain him being the 10th TE off the board.

I like to believe that Kmet just got lost in the shuffle. But I'm not sure. I might be in a league with 4th graders.

[Sriracha]

Personally, Herndon>Gronk>Trautman>Hayden Hurst>Kmet

I don't know enough about Asiasi to comment on him.

Not too hot on any of these rookie TE's, but Trautman is the most interesting for me and he landed in a great spot.

When understanding why a lot of people don't care for Kmet, it's important to consider how much draft capital doesn't factor into strong fantasy TE play. Kelce (3rd), Gronk (2nd), Kittle (5th), Andrews (3rd -- wasn't even the first TE taken by his own team!) Waller (6th), Ertz (2nd)

[TimeWillTell]

Personally, Herndon>Gronk>Trautman>Hayden Hurst>Kmet

I don't know enough about Asiasi to comment on him.

Not too hot on any of these rookie TE's, but Trautman is the most interesting for me and he landed in a great spot.

When understanding why a lot of people don't care for Kmet, it's important to consider how much draft capital doesn't factor into strong fantasy TE play. Kelce (3rd), Gronk (2nd), Kittle (5th), Andrews (3rd -- wasn't even the first TE taken by his own team!) Waller (6th), Ertz (2nd)

That low on Hurst in that Falcons offense that Hooper looked so good in? He's somehow on our waivers and I'm planning to blow some FAAB on him to flip for a pick later but curious to know why you're so low.

[Jigga94]

Personally, Herndon>Gronk>Trautman>Hayden Hurst>Kmet

I don't know enough about Asiasi to comment on him.

Not too hot on any of these rookie TE's, but Trautman is the most interesting for me and he landed in a great spot.

When understanding why a lot of people don't care for Kmet, it's important to consider how much draft capital doesn't factor into strong fantasy TE play. Kelce (3rd), Gronk (2nd), Kittle (5th), Andrews (3rd -- wasn't even the first TE taken by his own team!) Waller (6th), Ertz (2nd)

That low on Hurst in that Falcons offense that Hooper looked so good in? He's somehow on our waivers and I'm planning to blow some FAAB on him to flip for a pick later but curious to know why you're so low.

I'd have Hurst 1st on that list