New Heights of Rookie Fever

[Sriracha]

I don’t even think it’s rookie fever, or that these guys are going too high, I just don’t think they can appreciate in value the same way guys have done in previous years. I mean, Derrius Guice and JK Dobbins and Dalvin Cook aren’t prospects of a dramatically different caliber, but Dobbins is going 19th, while Guice and Cook were going 31st and 35th in May 2018/2017.

Is Dobbins actually going 19th now? Last startup I did with rookies was before the draft, where he went 4 picks before Akers late in the 4th round (12 team superflex 6pt TD, TE premium).

I see what you're saying now, but while they're all similar talents Dobbin's landing spot is simply amazing; likely giving people more confidence that he won't bust

Derrius Guice is also a RB I would be targeting in every draft if his ADP is still hovering around the 10th round

[OhCruelestRanter]

I don’t even think it’s rookie fever, or that these guys are going too high, I just don’t think they can appreciate in value the same way guys have done in previous years. I mean, Derrius Guice and JK Dobbins and Dalvin Cook aren’t prospects of a dramatically different caliber, but Dobbins is going 19th, while Guice and Cook were going 31st and 35th in May 2018/2017.

Is Dobbins actually going 19th now? Last startup I did with rookies was before the draft, where he went 4 picks before Akers late in the 4th round (12 team superflex 6pt TD, TE premium).

I see what you're saying now, but while they're all similar talents Dobbin's landing spot is simply amazing; likely giving people more confidence that he won't bust

Derrius Guice is also a RB I would be targeting in every draft if his ADP is still hovering around the 10th round

Even if you think it’s all landing spot, you can replace Dobbins at 19 with Swift at 24 and I don’t think the sentiment changes.

[Sriracha]

Hard to find data on this given that most rookie ADPs havent leveled out after the draft spike; but the ones Ive found have Dobbins/Akers/Swift going at a more reasonable 37-55 range

[Pac_Eddy]

Hard to find data on this given that most rookie ADPs havent leveled out after the draft spike; but the ones Ive found have Dobbins/Akers/Swift going at a more reasonable 37-55 range

I just took Dobbins at 25 in a startup. Rookie fever, particularly the lure of being the Ravens number one RB, was just too much.

[Cameron Giles]

RBs with fresh legs are always more appealing in dynasty, or at least they should be. Once an RB hits age 25-26, you're basically at peak trade value and production. So, not surprised a lot of these RBs are going so high.

[BradysBunch]

It has been interesting for trades. I have always been one to try to trade at peak, or close to peak, value. I have offered up Chubb and Evans in my leagues and here is what has happened.

In my 10 team league that is moving to SF in a year....here are the trades that went down

I traded Chubb for 1.1/M.Brown ( picked CEH )
I then traded Brown for the 2.1 ( Lamb fell to me! )

team A sent AJG/C. Davis/1.6 ( picked swift )
team B sent Bell/1.9 ( picked Vaughn )

team B sent 1.3/R. Anderson ( picked Dobbins )
team C sent 1.7/2.3 ( picked Akers )

1.8 was on the clock ( with juedy and lamb there ) asking for trades. I sent over Evans for Golladay/1.8. rejected with "not close"

same guy offered me ( for my 2.1 with Lamb there ) 2 thirds and 2 fourths?!?!?!? You can't negotiate with stupid I guess.

[TheNuts]

My best offer for Evan Engram was a later first. I like the player options there, but in a tight end premy league I would be really lucky to land a player at that pick with Engram upside.

[Chwf3rd]

Drafted more rookies than I ever have in a startup this week.

16 team Superflex league

3.02 - Joe Burrow, QB
3.03 - D'Andre Swift, RB
4.04 - Cam Akers, RB
6.01 - Jalen Reagor, WR
7.03 - Justin Herbert, QB
7.13 - Brandin Aiyuk, WR
9.15 - Bryan Edwards, WR

[ericanadian]

For a long time I’ve felt that rookies were consistently undervalued in startups. This time last year, guys like David Johnson and Lev Bell had earlier ADPs than Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders. Go back to May 2018 and you see Jordan Howard and Devonta Freeman going before Nick Chubb. 2017? LeSean McCoy the pick before Joe Mixon and Jay Ajayi the pick before Dalvin Cook. It always seemed like the most overvalued guy in any startup is the young-ish player who’s never been considered to have superstar potential.

Back to 2020, I’m not sure that’s the case anymore. Veterans I’d be worried about- Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary- are all going after all 5 rookie RBs. Maybe it’s still the case, and these guys will all quickly pass Elliot, Cook, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, and Sanders in ADP, it just seems like it’s hard for their values to appreciate significantly from where they are right now.

I walked away from my draft a month ago (pre Draft) with 8 rookies going in the 2nd round or earlier now (and I would've had more if I wasn't sniped a few times):

JT, CEH, Akers, Reagor, Herbert, Aiyuk, Edwards, Gibson

That's incredibly strange for me, as I typically lean Veterans most years in startups.

Is it rookie fever if they're all just really good prospects?

I don’t even think it’s rookie fever, or that these guys are going too high, I just don’t think they can appreciate in value the same way guys have done in previous years. I mean, Derrius Guice and JK Dobbins and Dalvin Cook aren’t prospects of a dramatically different caliber, but Dobbins is going 19th, while Guice and Cook were going 31st and 35th in May 2018/2017.

Cook ran a garbage 40 which tanked his value. I assume Guice’s draft position was before he blew his ACL in the opener of the preseason.

[Shoreline Steamers]

My only concern with the 2020 class is the lack of actual on-field time with their new teams. While I wholeheartedly agree that we're looking at a very deep crop of rookies, how will the careers of these players unfold when it's likely that their first season in the league will involve little to no offseason work, and could be cut short if Covid-19 infection rates spike during gameplay in the Fall?

Should the league have to cancel/postpone games after the season begins due to infection, we'll be looking at a group of talented players who got very little preparation or game experience, who will then be pushed by the 2021 class when they come into the league. I'm still debating, but wondering if it might not be the best course of action to trade away 2020 picks in order to stockpile future picks which might play out in a more "normal" NFL landscape.

There's a lot of great players to draft this year, but I'm not sure how to gauge the risk of loading up on them versus letting others do so if their careers will be adversely affected by a sickness beyond their control. Just another level of risk assessment for us fantasy players.

[FantasyFreak]

My only concern with the 2020 class is the lack of actual on-field time with their new teams. While I wholeheartedly agree that we're looking at a very deep crop of rookies, how will the careers of these players unfold when it's likely that their first season in the league will involve little to no offseason work, and could be cut short if Covid-19 infection rates spike during gameplay in the Fall?

Should the league have to cancel/postpone games after the season begins due to infection, we'll be looking at a group of talented players who got very little preparation or game experience, who will then be pushed by the 2021 class when they come into the league. I'm still debating, but wondering if it might not be the best course of action to trade away 2020 picks in order to stockpile future picks which might play out in a more "normal" NFL landscape.

There's a lot of great players to draft this year, but I'm not sure how to gauge the risk of loading up on them versus letting others do so if their careers will be adversely affected by a sickness beyond their control. Just another level of risk assessment for us fantasy players.

I think you are overlooking the fact that the 2021 class will be at least as handicapped in their development. The college season and the development of the 2021 class will be affected as much, if not more.

[PR0v3]

My only concern with the 2020 class is the lack of actual on-field time with their new teams. While I wholeheartedly agree that we're looking at a very deep crop of rookies, how will the careers of these players unfold when it's likely that their first season in the league will involve little to no offseason work, and could be cut short if Covid-19 infection rates spike during gameplay in the Fall?

Should the league have to cancel/postpone games after the season begins due to infection, we'll be looking at a group of talented players who got very little preparation or game experience, who will then be pushed by the 2021 class when they come into the league. I'm still debating, but wondering if it might not be the best course of action to trade away 2020 picks in order to stockpile future picks which might play out in a more "normal" NFL landscape.

There's a lot of great players to draft this year, but I'm not sure how to gauge the risk of loading up on them versus letting others do so if their careers will be adversely affected by a sickness beyond their control. Just another level of risk assessment for us fantasy players.

Not a concern for me. The ability to overcome adversity is one of the defining traits of all successful athletes. If a player can't figure out a way to overcome a little bit of missed practice time, they were never going to make it anyways. These people have been overcoming obstacles their entire life, this is nothing new for them.

[Pac_Eddy]

This is dynasty. Don't pass on the talent and depth of this draft class because of the increased chance of low production. With any class, expect low production but hope for the best.

[lukkynumber13]

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Cook ran a garbage 40 which tanked his value. I assume Guice’s draft position was before he blew his ACL in the opener of the preseason.

Huh...?

[FantasyFreak]

.
Cook ran a garbage 40 which tanked his value. I assume Guice’s draft position was before he blew his ACL in the opener of the preseason.

Huh...?

Yeah, Dalvin's 40 was sub 4.5. It was the 3 cone, 20 yard shuttle, and vert/broad he did not do well at. 3 cone is great for sinking guys who sink their hips really well, so to speak, which Dalvin doesn't. Heard Matt Waldman use a mathematical term for Dalvin which is bang on. Curvilinear Motion. It's motion that occurs when a particle travels along a curved path. He excels at that. That's why you see him on a football field looking like he is an elite athlete without testing as one. The 3 cone measure a very specific type of agility, which he lacks, same with the 20 yard shuttle. He does not use those movements, typically, as a football player. Dalvin excels at switching direction subtly at very high speeds, along a curve path, not at hard angles as the combine tests.